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July Trainers 2011
July Trainers (Flat) by David Renham
Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated on numerous occasions before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and hence tend to peak at certain times of the year. Other trainers seem to under-perform at other times of the year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of July with data taken from 2005 to 2010. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.
Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:
All races (July 05-10) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)
Sir Mark Prescott’s runners tend to run into form in mid-summer, although you would not have been able to make a blind profit on all his runners in July. The best Prescott angle in July looks to be focusing on handicap races when he saddles a runner in the top four of the betting. These runners have produced 56 winners from 146 runners (SR 38.4%) for a profit of £26.79 (ROI +18.3%). The market is an excellent guide for Prescott in July – in all races with runners 5th or bigger in the betting he has saddled 0 winners from 59. An interesting angle is to only back Prescott runners when they are NOT ridden by Seb Sanders. Combining all other jockeys together they have produced 25 winners from 82 rides (SR 30.5%) for a profit of £18.29 (ROI +22.3%).
Jeremy Noseda does particularly well with female runners during July – 25 wins from 83 runners (SR 30.1%) for a profit of £41.33 (ROI +49.8%). Noseda’s record in non handicaps is also worth noting – 38 wins from 131 (SR 29%) for a profit of £56.69 (ROI +43.3%). One further stat worth sharing is Noseda’s record in Class 1 races – 9 wins from 35 (SR 25.7%) for a profit of £28.63 (ROI +81.8%).
Roger Charlton does best in handicaps especially if you restrict his runners to those priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting. They have provided 29 winners from 100 runners (SR 29%) for a profit of £42.81 (ROI +42.81%).
As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (July 05-10) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 24 of the 31 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. Having said that, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.
With any general stats such as these, I tend to split the dat into more specific race-types. Hence, let me look at 2yo maiden races in July since 2005. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:
All 2yo maiden races (July 05-10) – 25 runs minimum (SR 14%+)
This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition facts for trainers in 2yo maidens. For the record, Jeremy Noseda has had 8 winning favourites from 9 – this is an exceptional strike rate of 88.9%. Meanwhile Mark Johnston’s runners do especially well when taking the lead – 22 of the 58 have gone onto win. Whether “in running” punters can take advantage of this fact is difficult to say. Alan Swinbank has a good record in this month with his 2yo maidens especially if they have had the benefit of a previous run. Those runners who have raced before have produced 8 wins from 25 (SR 32%) for a profit of £71.25 (ROI +285.00). This does include a 40/1 winner that skews the figures a bit but even without that returns would have exceeded 100%.
Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:
All 3yos running in maiden races (July 05-10) – 20 runs minimum (SR 17%+)
Michael Jarvis who has recently retired would have topped this table with a strike rate of 37% and so it will be interesting to see if Roger Varian who has taken over from him will produce similar results.
Finally a look at 3yo only handicaps.
3yo only handicap races (July 05-10) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
It is interesting to see so many trainers in profit in these 3yo handicaps. Lesser known trainer Chris Wall does well in these races as his stats show.
All in all July does seem to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction.
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