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July Trainers 2011


 

July Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

 

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated on numerous occasions before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and hence tend to peak at certain times of the year. Other trainers seem to under-perform at other times of the year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of July with data taken from 2005 to 2010. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

 

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first: 

 

All races (July 05-10) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

77

270

28.5

-£28.36

-10.5

Jeremy Noseda

53

219

24.2

+£39.81

+18.2

Saeed Bin Suroor

68

300

22.7

-£40.31

-13.4

Aidan O'Brien

14

62

22.6

-£7.44

-12.0

Roger Charlton

44

208

21.2

-£18.39

-8.8

Henry Cecil

36

174

20.7

+£10.28

+5.9

George Baker

13

65

20.0

+£3.46

+5.3

Chris Wall

38

193

19.7

+£68.10

+35.3

Simon Callaghan

12

61

19.7

-£16.14

-26.5

William Haggas

62

319

19.4

+£13.27

+4.2

Sir Michael Stoute

76

408

18.6

-£83.82

-20.5

Ed McMahon

30

163

18.4

+£19.27

+11.8

James Fanshawe

42

246

17.1

-£56.13

-22.8

John Gosden

55

325

16.9

-£12.17

-3.8

Tim Walford

12

71

16.9

+£35.58

+50.1

David Simcock

25

151

16.6

-£19.30

-12.8

Mark Johnston

163

997

16.4

-£36.21

-3.6

E J O'Neill

21

129

16.3

-£18.78

-14.6

David Brown

8

51

15.7

-£12.88

-25.3

Brian Meehan

71

458

15.5

+£60.78

+13.3

Michael Wigham

11

71

15.5

£25.50

35.9

Luca Cumani

44

287

15.3

-£75.81

-26.4

Marco Botti

15

99

15.2

-£5.54

-5.6

Roy Bowring

9

60

15.0

+£14.13

+23.5

William Jarvis

19

127

15.0

+£55.28

+43.5

Richard Hannon

167

1122

14.9

-£66.79

-6.0

Alan Swinbank

40

272

14.7

-£12.77

-4.7

Richard Fahey

122

835

14.6

-£60.86

-7.3

Paul Green

14

96

14.6

+£29.91

+31.2

George Moore

13

90

14.4

+£112.50

+125.0

Ruth Carr

20

139

14.4

+£20.43

+14.7

David Nicholls

72

503

14.3

£16.23

3.2

William Knight

19

134

14.2

+£40.10

+29.9

Andrew Haynes

21

150

14.0

+£5.23

+3.5

 

 

Sir Mark Prescott’s runners tend to run into form in mid-summer, although you would not have been able to make a blind profit on all his runners in July. The best Prescott angle in July looks to be focusing on handicap races when he saddles a runner in the top four of the betting. These runners have produced 56 winners from 146 runners (SR 38.4%) for a profit of £26.79 (ROI +18.3%). The market is an excellent guide for Prescott in July – in all races with runners 5th or bigger in the betting he has saddled 0 winners from 59. An interesting angle is to only back Prescott runners when they are NOT ridden by Seb Sanders. Combining all other jockeys together they have produced 25 winners from 82 rides (SR 30.5%) for a profit of £18.29 (ROI +22.3%).

 

Jeremy Noseda does particularly well with female runners during July – 25 wins from 83 runners (SR 30.1%) for a profit of £41.33 (ROI +49.8%). Noseda’s record in non handicaps is also worth noting – 38 wins from 131 (SR 29%) for a profit of £56.69 (ROI +43.3%). One further stat worth sharing is Noseda’s record in Class 1 races – 9 wins from 35 (SR 25.7%) for a profit of £28.63 (ROI +81.8%).

 

Roger Charlton does best in handicaps especially if you restrict his runners to those priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting. They have provided 29 winners from 100 runners (SR 29%) for a profit of £42.81 (ROI +42.81%).

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (July 05-10) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Stef Higgins

4

80

5.0

-£19.50

-24.4

Derek Shaw

7

141

5.0

-£71.50

-50.7

Alan McCabe

5

101

5.0

-£65.50

-64.9

John Bridger

8

162

4.9

-£66.50

-41.1

Alan Dickman

3

61

4.9

-£44.00

-72.1

Alan Jarvis

9

184

4.9

-£43.75

-23.8

George Foster

3

62

4.8

-£3.25

-5.2

Chris Fairhurst

3

64

4.7

-£36.00

-56.3

Colin Teague

3

65

4.6

+£29.50

+45.4

Richard Guest

6

132

4.6

-£93.00

-70.5

Stephen Parr

3

67

4.5

-£51.00

-76.1

Michael Blanshard

8

181

4.4

-£55.05

-30.4

Michael Attwater

5

114

4.4

-£47.00

-41.2

Peter Grayson

6

142

4.2

-£44.50

-31.3

Simon Dow

4

101

4.0

-£72.25

-71.5

David Thompson

2

56

3.6

+£4.00

+7.1

Alan Bailey

4

114

3.5

-£89.50

-78.5

Mel Brittain

5

143

3.5

-£95.00

-66.4

George Prodromou

2

59

3.4

-£33.50

-56.8

Tom Keddy

2

62

3.2

-£30.00

-48.4

Michael Quinlan

4

135

3.0

-£103.00

-76.3

John Jenkins

4

158

2.5

-£95.00

-60.1

Alan Berry

8

320

2.5

-£242.50

-75.8

John Wainwright

3

129

2.3

-£80.00

-62.0

John Balding

2

93

2.2

-£48.25

-51.9

Micky Hammond

1

60

1.7

-£54.50

-90.8

Charlie Cyzer

1

64

1.6

-£62.72

-98.0

Harry Dunlop

1

87

1.2

-£81.00

-93.1

Michael Chapman

0

103

0.0

-£103.00

-100.0

Donal Nolan

0

96

0.0

-£96.00

-100.0

Phil McEntee

0

79

0.0

-£79.00

-100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 24 of the 31 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. Having said that, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

 

With any general stats such as these, I tend to split the dat into more specific race-types. Hence, let me look at 2yo maiden races in July since 2005. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (July 05-10) – 25 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Jeremy Noseda

12

30

40.0

+£23.67

+78.9

Saeed Bin Suroor

20

55

36.4

+£16.31

+29.7

Henry Cecil

6

23

26.1

+£8.60

+37.4

Mahmood Al Zarooni

7

27

25.9

+£19.25

+71.3

Alan Swinbank

10

40

25.0

+£69.25

+173.1

E J O'Neill

9

41

22.0

+£5.50

+13.4

John Gosden

14

64

21.9

+£10.54

+16.5

William Knight

6

30

20.0

+£7.60

+25.3

Mark Johnston

36

182

19.8

-£10.43

-5.7

Ralph Beckett

14

71

19.7

+£50.39

+71.0

William Haggas

12

61

19.7

-£11.50

-18.9

Sir Mark Prescott

7

37

18.9

-£18.24

-49.3

David Simcock

5

27

18.5

-£9.13

-33.8

Ed McMahon

7

38

18.4

+£6.52

+17.2

Richard Fahey

23

125

18.4

£2.54

2.0

Sir Michael Stoute

7

43

16.3

-£11.62

-27.0

Richard Hannon

55

352

15.6

-£13.72

-3.9

Brian Meehan

22

151

14.6

+£2.23

+1.5

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition facts for trainers in 2yo maidens. For the record, Jeremy Noseda has had 8 winning favourites from 9 – this is an exceptional strike rate of 88.9%. Meanwhile Mark Johnston’s runners do especially well when taking the lead – 22 of the 58 have gone onto win. Whether “in running” punters can take advantage of this fact is difficult to say. Alan Swinbank has a good record in this month with his 2yo maidens especially if they have had the benefit of a previous run. Those runners who have raced before have produced 8 wins from 25 (SR 32%) for a profit of £71.25 (ROI +285.00). This does include a 40/1 winner that skews the figures a bit but even without that returns would have exceeded 100%.

 

Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:

 

All 3yos running in maiden races (July 05-10) – 20 runs minimum (SR 17%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

William Haggas

13

43

30.2

+£18.15

+42.2

Roger Charlton

6

21

28.6

-£1.14

-5.4

Jeremy Noseda

13

51

25.5

+£8.97

+17.6

Saeed Bin Suroor

11

44

25.0

-£17.63

-40.1

BarryHills

17

69

24.6

+£28.84

+41.8

Sir Michael Stoute

21

94

22.3

-£27.19

-28.9

Peter Chapple-Hyam

5

23

21.7

+£6.50

+28.3

David Barron

4

20

20.0

+£4.67

+23.3

Henry Cecil

11

57

19.3

+£1.50

+2.6

Henry Candy

5

26

19.2

+£1.85

+7.1

Sir Mark Prescott

5

26

19.2

-£7.13

-27.4

Brian Meehan

8

42

19.1

-£6.47

-15.4

John Dunlop

7

39

18.0

-£10.29

-26.4

James Fanshawe

9

53

17.0

-£6.28

-11.9

 

Michael Jarvis who has recently retired would have topped this table with a strike rate of 37% and so it will be interesting to see if Roger Varian who has taken over from him will produce similar results.

 

Finally a look at 3yo only handicaps.

 

3yo only handicap races (July 05-10) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

34

93

36.6

+£20.68

+22.2

Chris Wall

13

43

30.2

+£43.88

+102.0

David Nicholls

10

36

27.8

+£29.25

+81.3

Luca Cumani

13

57

22.8

+£5.44

+9.6

John Gosden

14

66

21.2

+£24.83

+37.6

Marcus Tregoning

7

34

20.6

+£1.25

+3.7

Roger Charlton

12

59

20.3

+£3.63

+6.2

Peter Makin

6

32

18.8

+£7.88

+24.6

J W Hills

9

50

18.0

+£15.75

+31.5

David Simcock

7

39

18.0

-£1.50

-3.9

Jeremy Noseda

6

34

17.7

-£9.02

-26.5

Rod Millman

11

63

17.5

+£18.00

+28.6

William Haggas

13

76

17.1

-£5.88

-7.7

Stuart Williams

7

41

17.1

-£3.30

-8.1

Andrew Balding

15

89

16.9

+£30.00

+33.7

Jamie Osborne

5

31

16.1

£2.75

+8.9

William Jarvis

5

31

16.1

-£1.25

-4.0

Ann Duffield

8

50

16.0

+£3.20

+6.4

 

It is interesting to see so many trainers in profit in these 3yo handicaps. Lesser known trainer Chris Wall does well in these races as his stats show.

 

All in all July does seem to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction.

 

 








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