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July Trainers


July Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated on numerous occasions before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and hence tend to peak at certain times of the year. Likewise they seem to under-perform at other times o f the year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of July with data taken from 2003 to 2009. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:

All races (July 03-09) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Sir Mark Prescott 97 321 30.2 -£30.51 -9.5
J Noseda 59 250 23.6 +£18.07 +7.2
Saeed Bin Suroor 77 329 23.4 -£30.55 -9.3
R Charlton 53 253 21.0 +£22.99 +9.1
E S McMahon 25 127 19.7 +£32.77 +25.8
S A Callaghan 12 61 19.7 -£16.14 -26.5
Sir Michael Stoute 91 463 19.7 -£78.03 -16.9
A P O'Brien 13 67 19.4 -£15.44 -23.0
H R A Cecil 36 186 19.4 -£9.96 -5.4
W J Haggas 66 347 19.0 -£12.95 -3.7
J R Fanshawe 56 314 17.8 -£62.43 -19.9
C F Wall 39 221 17.7 +£66.75 +30.2
M A Jarvis 63 368 17.1 -£4.25 -1.2
M Johnston 170 1005 16.9 -£4.01 -0.4
J H M Gosden 60 373 16.1 -£14.15 -3.8
L M Cumani 51 322 15.8 -£74.98 -23.3
G M Moore 16 101 15.8 +£114.98 +113.8
P W Chapple-Hyam 28 179 15.6 -£49.07 -27.4
E J O'Neill 24 157 15.3 -£34.03 -21.7
M L W Bell 55 362 15.2 -£54.23 -15.0
M Wigham 12 79 15.2 +£35.50 +44.9
W Jarvis 24 160 15.0 +£12.15 +7.6
Paul Green 10 68 14.7 +£27.91 +41.0
S C Williams 31 212 14.6 -£11.94 -5.6
J L Spearing 25 172 14.5 -£0.67 -0.4
A C Stewart 9 62 14.5 -£14.76 -23.8
P Mitchell 10 69 14.5 +£5.58 +8.1
D M Simcock 17 119 14.3 -£23.63 -19.9
Miss V Haigh 10 70 14.3 +£29.50 +42.1
G A Swinbank 39 275 14.2 -£34.09 -12.4
R A Fahey 118 838 14.1 -£16.83 -2.0
J L Dunlop 69 495 13.9 -£66.53 -13.4
M Botti 10 72 13.9 -£3.25 -4.5
P J Makin 22 162 13.6 -£28.55 -17.6
Mrs H Sweeting 8 59 13.6 +£14.50 +24.6
S Gollings 7 52 13.5 +£33.75 +64.9
N A Callaghan 27 201 13.4 -£78.98 -39.3
W J Knight 12 90 13.3 +£43.75 +48.6
J M P Eustace 18 136 13.2 +£24.63 +18.1
Mrs R Carr 10 76 13.2 -£11.95 -15.7
D W Barker 27 206 13.1 -£0.88 -0.4
W R Swinburn 30 229 13.1 +£26.98 +11.8
W S Kittow 14 107 13.1 +£2.00 +1.9
B J Meehan 68 522 13.0 -£3.32 -0.6

 

Sir Mark Prescott had the best strike rate in June as well, although you would not have been able to make a blind profit on all his runners in July. The best Prescott angle in July looks to be focusing on handicap races when he saddles a runner in the top three of the betting. These runners have produced 67 winners from 152 runners (SR 44.1%) for a profit of £32.86 (ROI +21.6%).

Mark Johnston’s runners have roughly broken even in July, and the value has been with horses that finished fourth or worse last time out. Perhaps not surprisingly they produced only a moderate strike rate of 13.7% (72 winners from 526 runners), but they have secured a profit of £77.80 (ROI +14.8%).

Jeremy Noseda does particularly well with female runners during July – 26 wins from 88 runners (SR 29.6%) for a profit of £51.18 (ROI +58.2%). It is worth taking note that Noseda’s 2 and 3yos perform significantly better than their older counterparts. His runners of 4 years old or older have provided only 3 wins from 50 runs!

Roger Charlton does best in handicaps especially if you restrict his runners to those priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting. They have provided 29 winners from 108 runners (SR 26.9%) for a profit of £55.93 (ROI +51.8%).

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (July 03-09) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
R Hollinshead 12 238 5.0 -£142.63 -59.9
M D Hammond 6 119 5.0 -£56.13 -47.2
J R Weymes 10 199 5.0 +£18.50 +9.3
W Storey 4 81 4.9 -£34.50 -42.6
J S Wainwright 11 223 4.9 -£43.00 -19.3
J J Bridger 9 185 4.9 -£97.00 -52.4
Stef Liddiard 3 65 4.6 -£33.50 -51.5
M Blanshard 10 217 4.6 -£83.42 -38.4
Peter Grayson 6 132 4.6 -£34.50 -26.1
S Parr 3 67 4.5 -£51.00 -76.1
J G Portman 6 140 4.3 -£58.87 -42.1
I W McInnes 8 195 4.1 -£120.30 -61.7
D Shaw 7 171 4.1 -£101.50 -59.4
G C Bravery 3 75 4.0 -£50.50 -67.3
D Haydn Jones 4 101 4.0 -£39.00 -38.6
A Berry 18 478 3.8 -£256.50 -53.7
M J Attwater 4 109 3.7 -£59.00 -54.1
H S Howe 2 56 3.6 -£38.00 -67.9
J Jay 2 56 3.6 -£31.00 -55.4
C W Fairhurst 3 87 3.5 -£59.00 -67.8
J O'Reilly 2 60 3.3 -£14.00 -23.3
P S McEntee 3 93 3.2 -£75.25 -80.9
T Keddy 2 62 3.2 -£39.00 -62.9
A J Mccabe 2 69 2.9 -£55.00 -79.7
J R Jenkins 5 180 2.8 -£111.00 -61.7
M J Polglase 2 80 2.5 -£60.00 -75.0
J Hetherton 2 85 2.4 -£71.00 -83.5
R C Guest 2 86 2.3 -£69.50 -80.8
C A Cyzer 2 87 2.3 -£79.22 -91.1
M Brittain 3 138 2.2 -£104.50 -75.7
S Dow 3 138 2.2 -£121.75 -88.2
J Balding 3 144 2.1 -£88.50 -61.5
Mrs S Lamyman 1 50 2.0 -£46.50 -93.0
M E Sowersby 1 54 1.9 -£47.00 -87.0
H J L Dunlop 1 63 1.6 -£57.00 -90.5
Dr J R J Naylor 1 67 1.5 -£54.00 -80.6
D A Nolan 1 121 0.8 -£95.00 -78.5
M C Chapman 0 125 0.0 -£125.00 -100.0
B W Duke 0 62 0.0 -£62.00 -100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 34 of the 39 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. Having said that, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in July since 2003. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

All 2yo maiden races (July 03-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
J Noseda 17 44 38.6 +£21.50 +48.9
Saeed Bin Suroor 25 73 34.3 +£4.54 +6.2
H R A Cecil 8 28 28.6 +£17.60 +62.9
E S McMahon 7 27 25.9 +£17.52 +64.9
M Johnston 43 191 22.5 +£26.77 +14.0
E J O'Neill 9 46 19.6 +£0.50 +1.1
P W Chapple-Hyam 9 46 19.6 -£8.40 -18.3
J H M Gosden 16 83 19.3 -£1.96 -2.4
Sir Mark Prescott 10 52 19.2 -£15.41 -29.6
W J Haggas 12 63 19.1 -£13.50 -21.4
G A Swinbank 7 40 17.5 +£37.25 +93.1
M A Jarvis 11 67 16.4 -£13.55 -20.2
D K Ivory 4 25 16.0 +£31.50 +126.0
D M Simcock 4 25 16.0 -£9.88 -39.5
N A Callaghan 9 58 15.5 -£34.51 -59.5
T D Barron 9 58 15.5 +£15.78 +27.2
R Charlton 7 46 15.2 +£8.90 +19.4

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition facts for trainers in 2yo maidens. For the record, Jeremy Noseda has had 12 winning favourites from 16 – this is an exceptional strike rate of 75%. Meanwhile Mark Johnston’s runners do especially well when taking the lead – 28 of the 61 have gone onto win. Whether “in running” punters can take advantage of this fact is difficult to say. In addition, Johnston’s runners should also be noted in Auction maidens. Such runners have produced 21 winners from 67 (SR 31.3%) for a profit of £55.69 (ROI +83.1%).

Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:

All 3yos running in maiden races (July 03-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 18%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
M A Jarvis 21 60 35.0 +£38.50 +64.2
W J Haggas 15 45 33.3 +£9.88 +22.0
R Charlton 10 32 31.3 +£5.87 +18.3
J Noseda 15 54 27.8 +£10.96 +20.3
W Jarvis 6 24 25.0 +£28.00 +116.7
Sir Michael Stoute 24 97 24.7 -£24.80 -25.6
Saeed Bin Suroor 11 45 24.4 -£21.13 -47.0
P W Chapple-Hyam 5 22 22.7 +£3.25 +14.8
G A Butler 7 31 22.6 +£5.45 +17.6
R Hannon 8 39 20.5 -£10.68 -27.4
B W Hills 18 88 20.5 +£19.24 +21.9
H R A Cecil 13 64 20.3 -£3.63 -5.7
J R Fanshawe 13 68 19.1 -£9.65 -14.2
M H Tompkins 4 21 19.1 -£7.88 -37.5
R A Fahey 6 33 18.2 +£34.25 +103.8
J L Dunlop 9 50 18.0 -£13.72 -27.5

 

The top five trainers in the table all have decent looking records and are worth noting in such races.

Michael Jarvis tops the ‘tree’ in terms of strike rate and any of his runners that are in the top three in betting are worth very close scrutiny. They have provided an impressive 19 winners from 37 (SR 51.4%) for a healthy profit of £26.50 (ROI +71.6%). It should also be noted that he has sent 6 horses to Lingfield to race in 3yo/3yo+ maidens and 5 have won.

Finally a look at 3yo only handicaps.

3yo only handicap races (July 03-09) – 25 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Sir Mark Prescott 40 105 38.1 +£16.81 +16.0
C F Wall 14 51 27.5 +£35.13 +68.9
J Noseda 8 36 22.2 +£4.48 +12.4
S C Williams 11 50 22.0 +£3.20 +6.4
L M Cumani 13 61 21.3 +£0.74 +1.2
J H M Gosden 13 62 21.0 +£19.95 +32.2
J M P Eustace 6 30 20.0 +£24.50 +81.7
M P Tregoning 7 37 18.9 -£1.75 -4.7
T G Mills 6 32 18.8 +£0.25 +0.8
R Charlton 12 66 18.2 +£6.33 +9.6
D M Simcock 6 33 18.2 -£1.50 -4.6
N A Callaghan 6 33 18.2 +£10.13 +30.7
D Nicholls 7 39 18.0 +£3.25 +8.3
B R Millman 12 67 17.9 +£22.00 +32.8
P W Harris 5 28 17.9 +£12.50 +44.6
P J Makin 6 34 17.7 +£5.88 +17.3
R A Fahey 23 144 16.0 +£33.44 +23.2
J G Given 16 104 15.4 +£73.75 +70.9
J L Dunlop 16 104 15.4 +£7.31 +7.0
W J Haggas 12 79 15.2 -£11.75 -14.9

 

It is interesting to see so many trainers in profit in these 3yo handicaps. Lesser known trainer Chris Wall does well in these races as his stats show. His runners should be taken seriously especially in races of 1 mile or less as his record reads an impressive 13 wins from 34 (SR 38.2%) for a profit of £49.13 (ROI +144.5%).

All in all July does seem to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction.








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