July Trainers (Flat) by David Renham
Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated on numerous occasions before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and hence tend to peak at certain times of the year. Likewise they seem to under-perform at other times o f the year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of July with data taken from 2003 to 2009. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.
Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:
All races (July 03-09) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)
Trainer |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate (%) |
Profit |
ROI (%) |
Sir Mark Prescott |
97 |
321 |
30.2 |
-£30.51 |
-9.5 |
J Noseda |
59 |
250 |
23.6 |
+£18.07 |
+7.2 |
Saeed Bin Suroor |
77 |
329 |
23.4 |
-£30.55 |
-9.3 |
R Charlton |
53 |
253 |
21.0 |
+£22.99 |
+9.1 |
E S McMahon |
25 |
127 |
19.7 |
+£32.77 |
+25.8 |
S A Callaghan |
12 |
61 |
19.7 |
-£16.14 |
-26.5 |
Sir Michael Stoute |
91 |
463 |
19.7 |
-£78.03 |
-16.9 |
A P O'Brien |
13 |
67 |
19.4 |
-£15.44 |
-23.0 |
H R A Cecil |
36 |
186 |
19.4 |
-£9.96 |
-5.4 |
W J Haggas |
66 |
347 |
19.0 |
-£12.95 |
-3.7 |
J R Fanshawe |
56 |
314 |
17.8 |
-£62.43 |
-19.9 |
C F Wall |
39 |
221 |
17.7 |
+£66.75 |
+30.2 |
M A Jarvis |
63 |
368 |
17.1 |
-£4.25 |
-1.2 |
M Johnston |
170 |
1005 |
16.9 |
-£4.01 |
-0.4 |
J H M Gosden |
60 |
373 |
16.1 |
-£14.15 |
-3.8 |
L M Cumani |
51 |
322 |
15.8 |
-£74.98 |
-23.3 |
G M Moore |
16 |
101 |
15.8 |
+£114.98 |
+113.8 |
P W Chapple-Hyam |
28 |
179 |
15.6 |
-£49.07 |
-27.4 |
E J O'Neill |
24 |
157 |
15.3 |
-£34.03 |
-21.7 |
M L W Bell |
55 |
362 |
15.2 |
-£54.23 |
-15.0 |
M Wigham |
12 |
79 |
15.2 |
+£35.50 |
+44.9 |
W Jarvis |
24 |
160 |
15.0 |
+£12.15 |
+7.6 |
Paul Green |
10 |
68 |
14.7 |
+£27.91 |
+41.0 |
S C Williams |
31 |
212 |
14.6 |
-£11.94 |
-5.6 |
J L Spearing |
25 |
172 |
14.5 |
-£0.67 |
-0.4 |
A C Stewart |
9 |
62 |
14.5 |
-£14.76 |
-23.8 |
P Mitchell |
10 |
69 |
14.5 |
+£5.58 |
+8.1 |
D M Simcock |
17 |
119 |
14.3 |
-£23.63 |
-19.9 |
Miss V Haigh |
10 |
70 |
14.3 |
+£29.50 |
+42.1 |
G A Swinbank |
39 |
275 |
14.2 |
-£34.09 |
-12.4 |
R A Fahey |
118 |
838 |
14.1 |
-£16.83 |
-2.0 |
J L Dunlop |
69 |
495 |
13.9 |
-£66.53 |
-13.4 |
M Botti |
10 |
72 |
13.9 |
-£3.25 |
-4.5 |
P J Makin |
22 |
162 |
13.6 |
-£28.55 |
-17.6 |
Mrs H Sweeting |
8 |
59 |
13.6 |
+£14.50 |
+24.6 |
S Gollings |
7 |
52 |
13.5 |
+£33.75 |
+64.9 |
N A Callaghan |
27 |
201 |
13.4 |
-£78.98 |
-39.3 |
W J Knight |
12 |
90 |
13.3 |
+£43.75 |
+48.6 |
J M P Eustace |
18 |
136 |
13.2 |
+£24.63 |
+18.1 |
Mrs R Carr |
10 |
76 |
13.2 |
-£11.95 |
-15.7 |
D W Barker |
27 |
206 |
13.1 |
-£0.88 |
-0.4 |
W R Swinburn |
30 |
229 |
13.1 |
+£26.98 |
+11.8 |
W S Kittow |
14 |
107 |
13.1 |
+£2.00 |
+1.9 |
B J Meehan |
68 |
522 |
13.0 |
-£3.32 |
-0.6 |
Sir Mark Prescott had the best strike rate in June as well, although you would not have been able to make a blind profit on all his runners in July. The best Prescott angle in July looks to be focusing on handicap races when he saddles a runner in the top three of the betting. These runners have produced 67 winners from 152 runners (SR 44.1%) for a profit of £32.86 (ROI +21.6%).
Mark Johnston’s runners have roughly broken even in July, and the value has been with horses that finished fourth or worse last time out. Perhaps not surprisingly they produced only a moderate strike rate of 13.7% (72 winners from 526 runners), but they have secured a profit of £77.80 (ROI +14.8%).
Jeremy Noseda does particularly well with female runners during July – 26 wins from 88 runners (SR 29.6%) for a profit of £51.18 (ROI +58.2%). It is worth taking note that Noseda’s 2 and 3yos perform significantly better than their older counterparts. His runners of 4 years old or older have provided only 3 wins from 50 runs!
Roger Charlton does best in handicaps especially if you restrict his runners to those priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting. They have provided 29 winners from 108 runners (SR 26.9%) for a profit of £55.93 (ROI +51.8%).
As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (July 03-09) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)
Trainer |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate (%) |
Profit |
ROI (%) |
R Hollinshead |
12 |
238 |
5.0 |
-£142.63 |
-59.9 |
M D Hammond |
6 |
119 |
5.0 |
-£56.13 |
-47.2 |
J R Weymes |
10 |
199 |
5.0 |
+£18.50 |
+9.3 |
W Storey |
4 |
81 |
4.9 |
-£34.50 |
-42.6 |
J S Wainwright |
11 |
223 |
4.9 |
-£43.00 |
-19.3 |
J J Bridger |
9 |
185 |
4.9 |
-£97.00 |
-52.4 |
Stef Liddiard |
3 |
65 |
4.6 |
-£33.50 |
-51.5 |
M Blanshard |
10 |
217 |
4.6 |
-£83.42 |
-38.4 |
Peter Grayson |
6 |
132 |
4.6 |
-£34.50 |
-26.1 |
S Parr |
3 |
67 |
4.5 |
-£51.00 |
-76.1 |
J G Portman |
6 |
140 |
4.3 |
-£58.87 |
-42.1 |
I W McInnes |
8 |
195 |
4.1 |
-£120.30 |
-61.7 |
D Shaw |
7 |
171 |
4.1 |
-£101.50 |
-59.4 |
G C Bravery |
3 |
75 |
4.0 |
-£50.50 |
-67.3 |
D Haydn Jones |
4 |
101 |
4.0 |
-£39.00 |
-38.6 |
A Berry |
18 |
478 |
3.8 |
-£256.50 |
-53.7 |
M J Attwater |
4 |
109 |
3.7 |
-£59.00 |
-54.1 |
H S Howe |
2 |
56 |
3.6 |
-£38.00 |
-67.9 |
J Jay |
2 |
56 |
3.6 |
-£31.00 |
-55.4 |
C W Fairhurst |
3 |
87 |
3.5 |
-£59.00 |
-67.8 |
J O'Reilly |
2 |
60 |
3.3 |
-£14.00 |
-23.3 |
P S McEntee |
3 |
93 |
3.2 |
-£75.25 |
-80.9 |
T Keddy |
2 |
62 |
3.2 |
-£39.00 |
-62.9 |
A J Mccabe |
2 |
69 |
2.9 |
-£55.00 |
-79.7 |
J R Jenkins |
5 |
180 |
2.8 |
-£111.00 |
-61.7 |
M J Polglase |
2 |
80 |
2.5 |
-£60.00 |
-75.0 |
J Hetherton |
2 |
85 |
2.4 |
-£71.00 |
-83.5 |
R C Guest |
2 |
86 |
2.3 |
-£69.50 |
-80.8 |
C A Cyzer |
2 |
87 |
2.3 |
-£79.22 |
-91.1 |
M Brittain |
3 |
138 |
2.2 |
-£104.50 |
-75.7 |
S Dow |
3 |
138 |
2.2 |
-£121.75 |
-88.2 |
J Balding |
3 |
144 |
2.1 |
-£88.50 |
-61.5 |
Mrs S Lamyman |
1 |
50 |
2.0 |
-£46.50 |
-93.0 |
M E Sowersby |
1 |
54 |
1.9 |
-£47.00 |
-87.0 |
H J L Dunlop |
1 |
63 |
1.6 |
-£57.00 |
-90.5 |
Dr J R J Naylor |
1 |
67 |
1.5 |
-£54.00 |
-80.6 |
D A Nolan |
1 |
121 |
0.8 |
-£95.00 |
-78.5 |
M C Chapman |
0 |
125 |
0.0 |
-£125.00 |
-100.0 |
B W Duke |
0 |
62 |
0.0 |
-£62.00 |
-100.0 |
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 34 of the 39 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. Having said that, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.
As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in July since 2003. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:
All 2yo maiden races (July 03-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Trainer |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate (%) |
Profit |
ROI (%) |
J Noseda |
17 |
44 |
38.6 |
+£21.50 |
+48.9 |
Saeed Bin Suroor |
25 |
73 |
34.3 |
+£4.54 |
+6.2 |
H R A Cecil |
8 |
28 |
28.6 |
+£17.60 |
+62.9 |
E S McMahon |
7 |
27 |
25.9 |
+£17.52 |
+64.9 |
M Johnston |
43 |
191 |
22.5 |
+£26.77 |
+14.0 |
E J O'Neill |
9 |
46 |
19.6 |
+£0.50 |
+1.1 |
P W Chapple-Hyam |
9 |
46 |
19.6 |
-£8.40 |
-18.3 |
J H M Gosden |
16 |
83 |
19.3 |
-£1.96 |
-2.4 |
Sir Mark Prescott |
10 |
52 |
19.2 |
-£15.41 |
-29.6 |
W J Haggas |
12 |
63 |
19.1 |
-£13.50 |
-21.4 |
G A Swinbank |
7 |
40 |
17.5 |
+£37.25 |
+93.1 |
M A Jarvis |
11 |
67 |
16.4 |
-£13.55 |
-20.2 |
D K Ivory |
4 |
25 |
16.0 |
+£31.50 |
+126.0 |
D M Simcock |
4 |
25 |
16.0 |
-£9.88 |
-39.5 |
N A Callaghan |
9 |
58 |
15.5 |
-£34.51 |
-59.5 |
T D Barron |
9 |
58 |
15.5 |
+£15.78 |
+27.2 |
R Charlton |
7 |
46 |
15.2 |
+£8.90 |
+19.4 |
This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition facts for trainers in 2yo maidens. For the record, Jeremy Noseda has had 12 winning favourites from 16 – this is an exceptional strike rate of 75%. Meanwhile Mark Johnston’s runners do especially well when taking the lead – 28 of the 61 have gone onto win. Whether “in running” punters can take advantage of this fact is difficult to say. In addition, Johnston’s runners should also be noted in Auction maidens. Such runners have produced 21 winners from 67 (SR 31.3%) for a profit of £55.69 (ROI +83.1%).
Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:
All 3yos running in maiden races (July 03-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 18%+)
Trainer |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate (%) |
Profit |
ROI (%) |
M A Jarvis |
21 |
60 |
35.0 |
+£38.50 |
+64.2 |
W J Haggas |
15 |
45 |
33.3 |
+£9.88 |
+22.0 |
R Charlton |
10 |
32 |
31.3 |
+£5.87 |
+18.3 |
J Noseda |
15 |
54 |
27.8 |
+£10.96 |
+20.3 |
W Jarvis |
6 |
24 |
25.0 |
+£28.00 |
+116.7 |
Sir Michael Stoute |
24 |
97 |
24.7 |
-£24.80 |
-25.6 |
Saeed Bin Suroor |
11 |
45 |
24.4 |
-£21.13 |
-47.0 |
P W Chapple-Hyam |
5 |
22 |
22.7 |
+£3.25 |
+14.8 |
G A Butler |
7 |
31 |
22.6 |
+£5.45 |
+17.6 |
R Hannon |
8 |
39 |
20.5 |
-£10.68 |
-27.4 |
B W Hills |
18 |
88 |
20.5 |
+£19.24 |
+21.9 |
H R A Cecil |
13 |
64 |
20.3 |
-£3.63 |
-5.7 |
J R Fanshawe |
13 |
68 |
19.1 |
-£9.65 |
-14.2 |
M H Tompkins |
4 |
21 |
19.1 |
-£7.88 |
-37.5 |
R A Fahey |
6 |
33 |
18.2 |
+£34.25 |
+103.8 |
J L Dunlop |
9 |
50 |
18.0 |
-£13.72 |
-27.5 |
The top five trainers in the table all have decent looking records and are worth noting in such races.
Michael Jarvis tops the ‘tree’ in terms of strike rate and any of his runners that are in the top three in betting are worth very close scrutiny. They have provided an impressive 19 winners from 37 (SR 51.4%) for a healthy profit of £26.50 (ROI +71.6%). It should also be noted that he has sent 6 horses to Lingfield to race in 3yo/3yo+ maidens and 5 have won.
Finally a look at 3yo only handicaps.
3yo only handicap races (July 03-09) – 25 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Trainer |
Wins |
Runs |
Strike Rate (%) |
Profit |
ROI (%) |
Sir Mark Prescott |
40 |
105 |
38.1 |
+£16.81 |
+16.0 |
C F Wall |
14 |
51 |
27.5 |
+£35.13 |
+68.9 |
J Noseda |
8 |
36 |
22.2 |
+£4.48 |
+12.4 |
S C Williams |
11 |
50 |
22.0 |
+£3.20 |
+6.4 |
L M Cumani |
13 |
61 |
21.3 |
+£0.74 |
+1.2 |
J H M Gosden |
13 |
62 |
21.0 |
+£19.95 |
+32.2 |
J M P Eustace |
6 |
30 |
20.0 |
+£24.50 |
+81.7 |
M P Tregoning |
7 |
37 |
18.9 |
-£1.75 |
-4.7 |
T G Mills |
6 |
32 |
18.8 |
+£0.25 |
+0.8 |
R Charlton |
12 |
66 |
18.2 |
+£6.33 |
+9.6 |
D M Simcock |
6 |
33 |
18.2 |
-£1.50 |
-4.6 |
N A Callaghan |
6 |
33 |
18.2 |
+£10.13 |
+30.7 |
D Nicholls |
7 |
39 |
18.0 |
+£3.25 |
+8.3 |
B R Millman |
12 |
67 |
17.9 |
+£22.00 |
+32.8 |
P W Harris |
5 |
28 |
17.9 |
+£12.50 |
+44.6 |
P J Makin |
6 |
34 |
17.7 |
+£5.88 |
+17.3 |
R A Fahey |
23 |
144 |
16.0 |
+£33.44 |
+23.2 |
J G Given |
16 |
104 |
15.4 |
+£73.75 |
+70.9 |
J L Dunlop |
16 |
104 |
15.4 |
+£7.31 |
+7.0 |
W J Haggas |
12 |
79 |
15.2 |
-£11.75 |
-14.9 |
It is interesting to see so many trainers in profit in these 3yo handicaps. Lesser known trainer Chris Wall does well in these races as his stats show. His runners should be taken seriously especially in races of 1 mile or less as his record reads an impressive 13 wins from 34 (SR 38.2%) for a profit of £49.13 (ROI +144.5%).
All in all July does seem to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction.