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July Trainers 2012


 

 

July Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

 

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated on numerous occasions before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and hence tend to peak at certain times of the year. Other trainers seem to under-perform at other times of the year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of July with data taken from 2007 to 2011. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

 

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:

 

All races (July 07-11) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

63

217

29.0

+£19.96

+9.2

Henry Cecil

42

171

24.6

+£42.17

+24.7

William Haggas

68

294

23.1

+£42.00

+14.3

Jeremy Noseda

39

171

22.8

+£9.51

+5.6

Saeed Bin Suroor

61

277

22.0

-£54.95

-19.8

Aidan O'Brien

11

51

21.6

-£20.52

-40.2

Roger Charlton

35

165

21.2

-£19.02

-11.5

Simon Callaghan

12

61

19.7

-£16.14

-26.5

John Gosden

54

287

18.8

+£32.81

+11.4

Ed McMahon

26

144

18.1

+£6.95

+4.8

Sir Michael Stoute

64

365

17.5

-£87.38

-23.9

Brian Meehan

67

389

17.2

+£62.11

+16.0

Rae Guest

10

59

17.0

+£14.50

+24.6

Chris Wall

25

148

16.9

£27.35

+18.5

David Simcock

30

179

16.8

+£3.91

+2.2

Mahmood Al Zarooni

17

103

16.5

+£52.00

+50.5

Paul D'Arcy

12

74

16.2

-£23.86

-32.2

George Baker

15

93

16.1

-£15.79

-17.0

Tim Walford

13

81

16.1

+£31.08

+38.4

Andrew Balding

56

350

16.0

+£24.00

+6.9

Richard Hannon

159

1005

15.8

-£117.76

-11.7

Linda Stubbs

9

57

15.8

-£3.59

-6.3

George Moore

14

89

15.7

+£92.83

+104.3

James Fanshawe

26

168

15.5

-£39.00

-23.2

Ruth Carr

29

190

15.3

+£12.93

+6.8

David Brown

10

66

15.2

-£14.13

-21.4

Andrew Haynes

24

160

15.0

+£31.73

+19.8

Gerard Butler

16

107

15.0

-£2.53

-2.4

 

Sir Mark Prescott’s runners tend to run into form in mid-summer, and you would have made a small profit backing all of his runners. Some profitable Prescott angles in the past 5 Julys have been:

 

  • All runners from the top three of the betting have combined to produce 59 winners from 153 runners (SR 38.6%) for a profit of £49.46 (ROI +32.3%);

  • If you ignore stable jockey Seb Sanders and focus on all other jockeys combined you would have had 27 winners from 74 (SR 36.5%) for a profit of £55.25 (ROI +74.7%);

  • Horses wearing blinkers have provided 7 winners from just 16 runners (SR 43.8%) for a profit of £26.25 (ROI +164.1%);

  • Horses that finished 2nd or 3rd LTO have produced 21 winners from 54 (SR 38.9%) for a profit of £20.67 (ROI +38.3%).

 

Jeremy Noseda does best in non handicap races in July – 26 wins from 97 runners (SR 26.8%) for a profit of £28.77 (ROI +29.7%). One further stat worth sharing is Noseda’s record at Newmarket – 12 wins from 50 (SR 24%) for a profit of £24.73 (ROI +49.5%).

 

Roger Charlton does best in handicaps especially if you restrict his runners to those priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting. They have provided 24 winners from 78 runners (SR 30.8%) for a profit of £35.93 (ROI +46.1%).

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (July 07-11) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Derek Shaw

6

119

5.0

-£58.50

-49.2

Ian McInnes

8

165

4.9

-£93.13

-56.4

George Foster

4

83

4.8

-£15.25

-18.4

James Eustace

3

63

4.8

-£35.00

-55.6

Lisa Williamson

3

63

4.8

-£32.00

-50.8

Gary Moore

10

214

4.7

-£88.42

-41.3

Michael Quinn

3

67

4.5

-£35.25

-52.6

John Gallagher

3

72

4.2

-£28.33

-39.4

George Margarson

3

73

4.1

-£57.50

-78.8

Peter Grayson

4

99

4.0

-£21.50

-21.7

Bryn Palling

4

100

4.0

-£39.50

-39.5

Lucinda Featherstone

2

51

3.9

-£34.00

-66.7

Karen George

2

54

3.7

-£26.50

-49.1

John Balding

2

55

3.6

-£45.75

-83.2

Alan McCabe

6

166

3.6

-£126.00

-75.9

Alan Bailey

3

83

3.6

-£64.00

-77.1

Alan Jarvis

5

140

3.6

-£41.50

-29.6

Alan Brown

2

62

3.2

-£41.50

-66.9

Michael Attwater

3

97

3.1

-£52.00

-53.6

Ian Wood

3

99

3.0

-£7.00

-7.1

Brendan Powell

3

102

2.9

-£80.50

-78.9

J R Jenkins

4

137

2.9

-£88.50

-64.6

Harry Dunlop

3

103

2.9

-£77.50

-75.2

Michael Quinlan

3

107

2.8

-£84.00

-78.5

Michael Blanshard

2

115

1.7

-£83.00

-72.2

John Akehurst

1

75

1.3

-£41.00

-54.7

Michael Chapman

1

81

1.2

-£62.00

-76.5

Donal Nolan

0

61

0.0

-£61.00

-100.0

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 22 of the 28 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. Having said that, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

 

With any general stats such as these, I tend to split the data into more specific race-types. Hence, let me look at 2yo maiden races in July since 2007. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (July 07-11) – 25 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Saeed Bin Suroor

19

46

41.3

+£15.74

+34.2

William Haggas

16

60

26.7

+£21.84

+36.4

David Simcock

8

32

25.0

-£1.57

-4.9

Sir Mark Prescott

8

32

25.0

+£0.96

+3.0

John Gosden

13

58

22.4

+£4.35

+7.5

Alan Swinbank

7

32

21.9

+£55.25

+172.7

Ralph Beckett

15

75

20.0

+£43.89

+58.5

Ed McMahon

9

45

20.0

+£11.38

+25.3

Peter Chapple-Hyam

6

31

19.4

+£4.56

+14.7

Brian Meehan

26

137

19.0

+£35.22

+25.7

Richard Hannon

54

330

16.4

-£6.36

-1.9

Mahmood Al Zarooni

9

56

16.1

+£11.75

+21.0

William Knight

6

39

15.4

+£4.60

+11.8

David Barron

4

27

14.8

+£9.25

+34.3

Sir Michael Stoute

6

42

14.3

-£23.26

-55.4

Bryan Smart

10

71

14.1

-£1.99

-2.8

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. A couple of favourite stats worth noting – John Gosden is 10 wins from 18 with 2yo maiden favourites in July for a profit of £10.85 (ROI +60.3%); David Simcock is 6 wins from 8. Several trainers have decent records with maidens who have already had racecourse experience. This include Ralph Beckett who has saddled 9 winners from 40 (SR 22.5%) for a profit of £30.56 (ROI +76.4%) and Willie Haggas who has saddled 12 winners from 26 (SR 46.2%) for a profit of £23.34 (ROI +89.8%).

 

 Finally a look at 3yo only handicaps.

 

3yo only handicap races (July 07-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

32

85

37.7

+£34.02

+40.0

David Nicholls

11

40

27.5

+£45.75

+114.4

Chris Wall

10

38

26.3

+£23.38

+61.5

William Haggas

18

70

25.7

+£14.34

+20.5

Andrew Balding

19

80

23.8

+£60.88

+76.1

Luca Cumani

9

38

23.7

-£3.81

-10.0

Michael Bell

14

69

20.3

-£5.19

-7.5

Bryan Smart

8

41

19.5

+£6.88

+16.8

Henry Cecil

7

37

18.9

-£5.47

-14.8

John Gosden

12

65

18.5

+£6.33

+9.7

J W Hills

7

38

18.4

+£6.75

+17.8

Roger Charlton

7

38

18.4

+£5.95

+15.7

Tim Easterby

19

108

17.6

+£12.70

+11.8

Kevin Ryan

17

106

16.0

-£8.43

-8.0

David Simcock

7

45

15.6

-£7.50

-16.7

Sir Michael Stoute

12

79

15.2

-£20.83

-26.4

Ann Duffield

6

40

15.0

+£4.25

+10.6

 

It is interesting to see so many trainers in profit in these 3yo handicaps. David Nicholls is a trainer more known for his older handicap sprinters so his figures are interesting. Also Andrew Balding’s record is worth a second glance. Indeed 13 of his 19 winners have been at Grade 1 tracks with Sandown being a track where he has particularly excelled – 5 wins from 12 (SR 41.7%) for a profit of £13.25 (ROI +110.4%).

 

All in all July does seem to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I trust this article has pointed you in the right direction.

 

 

 








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