July Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

 

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated on numerous occasions before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and hence tend to peak at certain times of the year. Other trainers seem to under-perform at other times of the year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of July with data taken from 2007 to 2011. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

 

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:

 

All races (July 07-11) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Sir Mark Prescott	63	217	29.0	+£19.96	+9.2
Henry Cecil	42	171	24.6	+£42.17	+24.7
William Haggas	68	294	23.1	+£42.00	+14.3
Jeremy Noseda	39	171	22.8	+£9.51	+5.6
Saeed Bin Suroor	61	277	22.0	-£54.95	-19.8
Aidan O'Brien	11	51	21.6	-£20.52	-40.2
Roger Charlton	35	165	21.2	-£19.02	-11.5
Simon Callaghan	12	61	19.7	-£16.14	-26.5
John Gosden	54	287	18.8	+£32.81	+11.4
Ed McMahon	26	144	18.1	+£6.95	+4.8
Sir Michael Stoute	64	365	17.5	-£87.38	-23.9
Brian Meehan	67	389	17.2	+£62.11	+16.0
Rae Guest	10	59	17.0	+£14.50	+24.6
Chris Wall	25	148	16.9	£27.35	+18.5
David Simcock	30	179	16.8	+£3.91	+2.2
Mahmood Al Zarooni	17	103	16.5	+£52.00	+50.5
Paul D'Arcy	12	74	16.2	-£23.86	-32.2
George Baker	15	93	16.1	-£15.79	-17.0
Tim Walford	13	81	16.1	+£31.08	+38.4
Andrew Balding	56	350	16.0	+£24.00	+6.9
Richard Hannon	159	1005	15.8	-£117.76	-11.7
Linda Stubbs	9	57	15.8	-£3.59	-6.3
George Moore	14	89	15.7	+£92.83	+104.3
James Fanshawe	26	168	15.5	-£39.00	-23.2
Ruth Carr	29	190	15.3	+£12.93	+6.8
David Brown	10	66	15.2	-£14.13	-21.4
Andrew Haynes	24	160	15.0	+£31.73	+19.8
Gerard Butler	16	107	15.0	-£2.53	-2.4

 

Sir Mark Prescott’s runners tend to run into form in mid-summer, and you would have made a small profit backing all of his runners. Some profitable Prescott angles in the past 5 Julys have been:

 

• All runners from the top three of the betting have combined to produce 59 winners from 153 runners (SR 38.6%) for a profit of £49.46 (ROI +32.3%);

• If you ignore stable jockey Seb Sanders and focus on all other jockeys combined you would have had 27 winners from 74 (SR 36.5%) for a profit of £55.25 (ROI +74.7%);

• Horses wearing blinkers have provided 7 winners from just 16 runners (SR 43.8%) for a profit of £26.25 (ROI +164.1%);

• Horses that finished 2nd or 3rd LTO have produced 21 winners from 54 (SR 38.9%) for a profit of £20.67 (ROI +38.3%).

 

Jeremy Noseda does best in non handicap races in July – 26 wins from 97 runners (SR 26.8%) for a profit of £28.77 (ROI +29.7%). One further stat worth sharing is Noseda’s record at Newmarket – 12 wins from 50 (SR 24%) for a profit of £24.73 (ROI +49.5%).

 

Roger Charlton does best in handicaps especially if you restrict his runners to those priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting. They have provided 24 winners from 78 runners (SR 30.8%) for a profit of £35.93 (ROI +46.1%).

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (July 07-11) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Derek Shaw	6	119	5.0	-£58.50	-49.2
Ian McInnes	8	165	4.9	-£93.13	-56.4
George Foster	4	83	4.8	-£15.25	-18.4
James Eustace	3	63	4.8	-£35.00	-55.6
Lisa Williamson	3	63	4.8	-£32.00	-50.8
Gary Moore	10	214	4.7	-£88.42	-41.3
Michael Quinn	3	67	4.5	-£35.25	-52.6
John Gallagher	3	72	4.2	-£28.33	-39.4
George Margarson	3	73	4.1	-£57.50	-78.8
Peter Grayson	4	99	4.0	-£21.50	-21.7
Bryn Palling	4	100	4.0	-£39.50	-39.5
Lucinda Featherstone	2	51	3.9	-£34.00	-66.7
Karen George	2	54	3.7	-£26.50	-49.1
John Balding	2	55	3.6	-£45.75	-83.2
Alan McCabe	6	166	3.6	-£126.00	-75.9
Alan Bailey	3	83	3.6	-£64.00	-77.1
Alan Jarvis	5	140	3.6	-£41.50	-29.6
Alan Brown	2	62	3.2	-£41.50	-66.9
Michael Attwater	3	97	3.1	-£52.00	-53.6
Ian Wood	3	99	3.0	-£7.00	-7.1
Brendan Powell	3	102	2.9	-£80.50	-78.9
J R Jenkins	4	137	2.9	-£88.50	-64.6
Harry Dunlop	3	103	2.9	-£77.50	-75.2
Michael Quinlan	3	107	2.8	-£84.00	-78.5
Michael Blanshard	2	115	1.7	-£83.00	-72.2
John Akehurst	1	75	1.3	-£41.00	-54.7
Michael Chapman	1	81	1.2	-£62.00	-76.5
Donal Nolan	0	61	0.0	-£61.00	-100.0

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 22 of the 28 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. Having said that, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

 

With any general stats such as these, I tend to split the data into more specific race-types. Hence, let me look at 2yo maiden races in July since 2007. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (July 07-11) – 25 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Saeed Bin Suroor	19	46	41.3	+£15.74	+34.2
William Haggas	16	60	26.7	+£21.84	+36.4
David Simcock	8	32	25.0	-£1.57	-4.9
Sir Mark Prescott	8	32	25.0	+£0.96	+3.0
John Gosden	13	58	22.4	+£4.35	+7.5
Alan Swinbank	7	32	21.9	+£55.25	+172.7
Ralph Beckett	15	75	20.0	+£43.89	+58.5
Ed McMahon	9	45	20.0	+£11.38	+25.3
Peter Chapple-Hyam	6	31	19.4	+£4.56	+14.7
Brian Meehan	26	137	19.0	+£35.22	+25.7
Richard Hannon	54	330	16.4	-£6.36	-1.9
Mahmood Al Zarooni	9	56	16.1	+£11.75	+21.0
William Knight	6	39	15.4	+£4.60	+11.8
David Barron	4	27	14.8	+£9.25	+34.3
Sir Michael Stoute	6	42	14.3	-£23.26	-55.4
Bryan Smart	10	71	14.1	-£1.99	-2.8

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. A couple of favourite stats worth noting – John Gosden is 10 wins from 18 with 2yo maiden favourites in July for a profit of £10.85 (ROI +60.3%); David Simcock is 6 wins from 8. Several trainers have decent records with maidens who have already had racecourse experience. This include Ralph Beckett who has saddled 9 winners from 40 (SR 22.5%) for a profit of £30.56 (ROI +76.4%) and Willie Haggas who has saddled 12 winners from 26 (SR 46.2%) for a profit of £23.34 (ROI +89.8%).

 

 Finally a look at 3yo only handicaps.

 

3yo only handicap races (July 07-11) – 30 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Sir Mark Prescott	32	85	37.7	+£34.02	+40.0
David Nicholls	11	40	27.5	+£45.75	+114.4
Chris Wall	10	38	26.3	+£23.38	+61.5
William Haggas	18	70	25.7	+£14.34	+20.5
Andrew Balding	19	80	23.8	+£60.88	+76.1
Luca Cumani	9	38	23.7	-£3.81	-10.0
Michael Bell	14	69	20.3	-£5.19	-7.5
Bryan Smart	8	41	19.5	+£6.88	+16.8
Henry Cecil	7	37	18.9	-£5.47	-14.8
John Gosden	12	65	18.5	+£6.33	+9.7
J W Hills	7	38	18.4	+£6.75	+17.8
Roger Charlton	7	38	18.4	+£5.95	+15.7
Tim Easterby	19	108	17.6	+£12.70	+11.8
Kevin Ryan	17	106	16.0	-£8.43	-8.0
David Simcock	7	45	15.6	-£7.50	-16.7
Sir Michael Stoute	12	79	15.2	-£20.83	-26.4
Ann Duffield	6	40	15.0	+£4.25	+10.6

 

It is interesting to see so many trainers in profit in these 3yo handicaps. David Nicholls is a trainer more known for his older handicap sprinters so his figures are interesting. Also Andrew Balding’s record is worth a second glance. Indeed 13 of his 19 winners have been at Grade 1 tracks with Sandown being a track where he has particularly excelled – 5 wins from 12 (SR 41.7%) for a profit of £13.25 (ROI +110.4%).

 

All in all July does seem to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I trust this article has pointed you in the right direction.