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Jockeys Revisited


Back in June I looked at a variety of statistics focusing on some of the top jockeys in the country. For many years I must admit that the jockey has often been my last consideration when it comes to having a bet. However, as times goes on I am starting to realize that the jockey can actually make a big difference – not all the time; but some of the time.  
 
In this article I am going to go into more depth about some of facts that were uncovered in that aforementioned article. The data is taken from the start of 1998 turf season to August 15th 2007 .
 
Frankie Dettori – has a good record at Brighton with 12 wins from 39 (SR 30.8%) for a profit of £21.25 (ROI +54.5%). Looking deeper into his Brighton record sees that Dettori has placed in a further 15 races and hence has a very impressive win and placed strike rate of 69.2%. Also it seems prudent to avoid favourites if you want to maximize returns – ignoring favourites his Brighton record reads 8 wins from 27 (SR 29.6%) for a profit of £21.58 (ROI +79.9%). Another interesting angle is to focus on horses that were 7th or worse LTO – 4 wins from 12 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £21.00 (ROI +175%).
 
RichardHills – has an excellent 12 wins from 23 from Haydock favourites. Is 4 wins from 6 from 2yo favourites at the track, and amazingly 6 win from 7 with fillies. Hills also rides well for Saeed Bin Suroor – 16 wins from 74 (SR 21.6%) for a profit of £19.59 (ROI +26.5%). Digger deeper we find some interesting angles – firstly the Hills / Bin Suroor combination have produced 4 wins from 7 at Doncaster. They have also done well in races of 1 mile to 1 mile 2f – 7 wins from 30 (SR 23.3%) for a profit of £27.28 (ROI +90.9%). Well fancied runners have done well with first and second favourites producing 13 wins from 30 (SR 43.3%) for a profit of £13.09 (ROI +43.6%).
 
Neil Callan – has a good record at Ripon thanks to 25 wins from 162 (SR 15.4%) for a decent profit of £74.39 (ROI +45.9%). Here are some angles worth noting for Callan riding at Ripon:
 
Variable
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate
Profit
ROI
Race class – 1 to 3
9
34
26.5%
+£106.75
+314.0%
Soft going
10
44
22.7%
+£86.89
+197.5%
Trainer – Kevin Ryan
16
61
26.2%
+£57.39
+94.1%
5 and 6f races
16
76
21.1%
+£35.98
+47.3%
 
Callan was flagged up in the earlier article as a good jockey on soft going and hence that stat is perhaps no surprise. He also rides the straight course at Ripon well as the sprint figures show. The draw bias does vary from meeting to meeting at this track and I would imagine Callan knows the bias inside out.
 
Philip Robinson – is a jockey I really like and his record at Salisbury is worth exploring in more detail – his overall record reads 13 wins from 49 (SR 26.5%) for a profit of £35.48 (ROI +72.4%). Here are some further stats of interest for Salisbury:
 
Variable
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate
Profit
ROI
Month - September
7
13
53.8%
+£16.23
+124.8%
Favourite
6
7
85.7%
+£10.65
+152.1%
Fillies / Mares
11
30
36.7%
+£44.48
+148.3%
 
Robinson also should be noted when riding for Clive Cox. All in all he has ridden 34 winners from 185 runners (SR 18.4%) for a healthy profit of £89.29 (ROI +48.3%). The table below shows numerous profitable angles for this partnership: 
 
Variable
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate
Profit
ROI
Month - August
8
33
24.2%
+£44.00
+133.3%
Course - Leicester
4
10
40.0%
+£27.75
+277.5%
Down in Class
9
35
25.7%
+£29.63
+84.7%
Price - 10/1 to 18/1
9
44
20.5%
+£80.00
+181.8%
Maiden races
12
47
25.5%
+£71.25
+151.6%
2yo races
11
54
20.4%
+£53.00
+98.1%
10 or less runners
15
63
23.8%
+£34.04
+54.0%
First time out
6
25
24.0%
+£40.75
+163.0%
LTO 7th or worse
10
54
18.5%
+£57.50
+106.5%
 
This is an impressive list giving punters plenty of options when Cox and Robinson combine. The most interesting one for me is the performance of horses priced 10/1 to 18/1. A strike rate of over 1 in 5 is exceptional for this price bracket.
 
Paul Hanagan – rides primarily for Richard Fahey but his record for Ian Semple is worth noting – 20 wins from 144 (SR 17.5%) for a profit of £96.94 (ROI +85%). Here some angles worth noting for this jockey / trainer combination:
 
Variable
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate
Profit
ROI
Course - Ayr
4
17
23.5%
+£23.44
+137.9%
Course -Hamilton
10
38
26.3%
+£90.00
+236.8%
5 & 6f races
10
49
20.4%
+£72.75
+148.5%
Price - 5/1 to 9/1
8
30
26.7%
+£30.50
+101.7%
 
I think we should keep a beady eye on Ayr and Hamilton in the future when Hanagan rides for Semple.
 
Seb Sanders – has numerous positive stats and further investigation has proved very fruitful. Firstly let us look at Brighton - a track that he seems to ride brilliantly. Overall at the Sussex track he has ridden 96 winners from 463 runners (SR 20.7%) for a profit of £63.47 (ROI +13.7%). Maybe not the biggest ROI but considering how many rides he has had this is an impressive effort. Here are some Brighton angles worth noting:
 
Variable
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate
Profit
ROI
Month - October
11
53
20.8%
+£16.61
+31.3%
Down in class
44
179
24.6%
+£79.42
+44.4%
5 to 7f
55
237
23.2%
+£69.67
+29.4%
Top 3 in betting
79
246
32.1%
+£81.47
+33.1%
1st LTO
12
33
36.4%
+£16.21
+49.1%
7th or worse LTO
29
169
17.2%
+£81.13
+48.0%
Trainer - J Spearing
4
7
57.1%
+£13.63
+194.7%
 
It is interesting that Sanders excels at the shorter distance races, while horses that are in the top three in the betting have produced excellent returns from around a 1 in 3 strike rate. He combines rarely with trainer John Spearing, but he clearly should be noted when he does.
 
Finally in this article it worth looking at the stats for Sanders when he rides for Pat Cundell – overall the trainer/jockey combination have provided 15 wins from 44 (SR 34.1%) for a profit of £40.75 (ROI +92.6%). Breaking these stats down produces 4 more worthwhile angles:
 
Variable
Wins
Runs
Strike Rate
Profit
ROI
Course -Leicester
4
6
66.7%
+£15.00
+250.0%
Class 4/5
13
33
39.4%
+£33.75
+102.3%
5 to 7f
11
19
57.9%
+£44.75
+235.5%
1st three in the betting
14
26
53.8%
+£45.75
+176.0%
 
14 wins from 26 for the top 3 in the betting compared with 1 win from 18 for horses 4th or higher in the market – that tells a story!
 
 
 







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