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January Trainers 2013
January Trainers by David Renham
As long term members will know, each month, I write an article based on past trainer performance focusing on a particular month. In general trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of January with data taken from 2007 to 2012.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (Jan 07-12) – 50 runs minimum (SR 14%+)
Nicky Henderson tops the list in terms of strike rate (as he did in both November and December). Despite his excellent strike rate, he has made a loss over the six years of study. He has been consistent with yearly strike rates of 20% or more (5 have been 26% or more). There have been areas where Henderson based profits could have been achieved though. For example, his 4yo runners have an excellent record in this first month of the year thanks to 13 winners from just 27 runners (SR 48.2%) for a profit of £23.04 (ROI +85.4%). Hence one should take careful of any 4yo runners he sends out this month. Henderson has also performed well at several courses – Hereford 6 wins from 9; Leicester 8 wins from 12 being two such examples. Finally for Henderson he done well in novice races – both chases and hurdles have seen a profit. Novice hurdles he has secured a strike rate of 37.9% and profits of 20 pence in the £; novice chases his strike rate has been 42.6% with profits standing at just under 25p in the £.
It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Jan 07-12) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5.5% or lower)
As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses – 14 of the 16 in the list have produced losses of over 50p in the £. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in January since 2007:
All chases (Jan 07-12) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
Venetia Williams is prominent in the chase table, but her record is very patchy – good years in 2007, 2009 and 2012, while 2010 and 2011 saw just 3 winners from 46. I also would get too carried away with David Pipe as 2007 saw him make a profit of £33.30 while the last 4 seasons has seen 3 losing Januarys. James Ewart does not have many runners but his record is very decent.
Moving onto hurdle races now:
All hurdle races (Jan 07-12) – 40 runs minimum (SR 14%+)
Alan King has made decent profits and despite his yearly record is a bit up and down he is a trainer to note in hurdle races at this time of year. It is noticeable that his record is far better when either Wayne Hutchison or Robert Thornton have been riding – they have combined to secure 47 winners from 218 runners (SR 21.6%); if you combine all other jockeys, they have provided just 4 winners from 70 (SR 5.7%).
Moving onto bumpers next. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 20 bumper runners during this month over the 6-year period:
All bumper races (Jan 07-12) – 20 runs minimum
Difficult to find profits there, but clearly Henderson and Swinbank are worth close scrutiny. For the record Charlie Longsdon has a decent record thanks to 5 wins from 16 (not enough runs to make the table).
All in all there seems to be some useful data for Janaury and good luck punting this month!
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