Articles >> horse-racing >>

January Trainers 2013


 

January Trainers by David Renham

 

As long term members will know, each month, I write an article based on past trainer performance focusing on a particular month. In general trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of January with data taken from 2007 to 2012.

 

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

 

All races (Jan 07-12) – 50 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

114

374

30.5

-£26.11

-7.0

Alan Swinbank

13

55

23.6

+£3.85

+7.0

Paul Nicholls

81

366

22.1

-£113.34

-31.0

Nick Williams

14

70

20.0

+£7.51

+10.7

Victor Dartnall

20

106

18.9

+£48.15

+45.4

Keith Reveley

27

145

18.6

-£2.64

-1.8

Venetia Williams

60

356

16.9

+£127.17

+35.7

James Ewart

15

89

16.9

+£6.35

+7.1

David Pipe

67

401

16.7

+£6.97

+1.7

Alan King

75

463

16.2

-£0.36

-0.1

Jim Best

11

69

15.9

-£15.63

-22.6

Richard Lee

13

83

15.7

+£60.83

+73.3

Donald McCain

52

334

15.6

-£124.25

-37.2

Kate Walton

9

58

15.5

£5.75

9.9

Nicky Richards

24

156

15.4

-£34.16

-21.9

Charlie Longsdon

20

130

15.4

+£62.50

+48.1

Henry Daly

24

157

15.3

-£6.95

-4.4

Martin Keighley

12

79

15.2

-£7.42

-9.4

Brian Ellison

10

66

15.2

-£19.50

-29.6

Charlie Mann

24

159

15.1

-£17.07

-10.7

Tony Carroll

14

97

14.4

+£52.33

+54.0

Philip Hobbs

53

376

14.1

-£137.93

-36.7

 

Nicky Henderson tops the list in terms of strike rate (as he did in both November and December). Despite his excellent strike rate, he has made a loss over the six years of study. He has been consistent with yearly strike rates of 20% or more (5 have been 26% or more). There have been areas where Henderson based profits could have been achieved though. For example, his 4yo runners have an excellent record in this first month of the year thanks to 13 winners from just 27 runners (SR 48.2%) for a profit of £23.04 (ROI +85.4%). Hence one should take careful of any 4yo runners he sends out this month. Henderson has also performed well at several courses – Hereford 6 wins from 9; Leicester 8 wins from 12 being two such examples. Finally for Henderson he done well in novice races – both chases and hurdles have seen a profit. Novice hurdles he has secured a strike rate of 37.9% and profits of 20 pence in the £; novice chases his strike rate has been 42.6% with profits standing at just under 25p in the £.

 

It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (Jan 07-12) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5.5% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Alison Thorpe

5

95

5.3

-£53.25

-56.1

Richard Phillips

7

138

5.1

-£102.77

-74.5

William Amos

3

60

5.0

-£43.33

-72.2

Ron Hodges

3

60

5.0

-£43.67

-72.8

Richard Guest

2

54

3.7

-£31.00

-57.4

Chris Bealby

2

54

3.7

-£21.00

-38.9

Michael Chapman

2

58

3.5

-£40.00

-69.0

Keith Goldsworthy

2

60

3.3

-£44.50

-74.2

Sue Bradburne

2

66

3.0

-£56.00

-84.9

George Charlton

2

68

2.9

-£53.00

-77.9

Chris Down

2

74

2.7

-£52.50

-71.0

Robert Johnson

1

58

1.7

-£49.00

-84.5

Jim Old

1

60

1.7

-£55.50

-92.5

P Monteith

1

60

1.7

-£57.13

-95.2

James Frost

1

62

1.6

-£55.50

-89.5

Michael Scudamore

1

94

1.1

-£43.00

-45.7

 

As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses – 14 of the 16 in the list have produced losses of over 50p in the £. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.

 

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in January since 2007:

 

All chases (Jan 07-12) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

36

108

33.3

-£2.54

-2.4

James Ewart

10

32

31.3

+£25.85

+80.8

Paul Nicholls

38

155

24.5

-£35.99

-23.2

Victor Dartnall

9

37

24.3

+£14.40

+38.9

Keith Reveley

12

59

20.3

+£1.93

+3.3

Venetia Williams

32

158

20.3

+£27.08

+17.1

Henry Daly

13

66

19.7

+£7.94

+12.0

David Pipe

25

130

19.2

+£26.95

+20.7

Nick Williams

8

42

19.1

+£7.23

+17.2

Nick Gifford

9

49

18.4

-£7.20

-14.7

Richard Lee

7

39

18.0

+£37.50

+96.2

Bob Buckler

8

48

16.7

+£8.13

+16.9

Neil King

5

30

16.7

+£2.63

+8.8

Philip Hobbs

20

121

16.5

-£28.87

-23.9

Jonjo O'Neill

23

143

16.1

-£17.87

-12.5

 

Venetia Williams is prominent in the chase table, but her record is very patchy – good years in 2007, 2009 and 2012, while 2010 and 2011 saw just 3 winners from 46. I also would get too carried away with David Pipe as 2007 saw him make a profit of £33.30 while the last 4 seasons has seen 3 losing Januarys. James Ewart does not have many runners but his record is very decent.

 

Moving onto hurdle races now:

 

All hurdle races (Jan 07-12) – 40 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

63

228

27.6

-£26.96

-11.8

Paul Nicholls

41

189

21.7

-£61.59

-32.6

Keith Reveley

12

65

18.5

+£4.93

+7.6

Charlie Mann

16

89

18.0

+£25.20

+28.3

Alan King

51

288

17.7

+£40.31

+14.0

David Pipe

41

246

16.7

+£1.02

+0.4

Martin Keighley

7

43

16.3

+£3.08

+7.2

Victor Dartnall

10

62

16.1

+£37.50

+60.5

Tony Carroll

9

57

15.8

+£37.50

+65.8

Donald McCain

33

214

15.4

-£85.80

-40.1

Jim Best

9

59

15.3

-£18.13

-30.7

Nicky Richards

15

101

14.9

-£2.12

-2.1

Charlie Longsdon

10

69

14.5

+£3.25

+4.7

Paul Webber

8

57

14.0

+£49.54

+86.9

Robin Dickin

6

43

14.0

-£4.25

-9.9

 

Alan King has made decent profits and despite his yearly record is a bit up and down he is a trainer to note in hurdle races at this time of year. It is noticeable that his record is far better when either Wayne Hutchison or Robert Thornton have been riding – they have combined to secure 47 winners from 218 runners (SR 21.6%); if you combine all other jockeys, they have provided just 4 winners from 70 (SR 5.7%).

 

Moving onto bumpers next. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 20 bumper runners during this month over the 6-year period:

 

All bumper races (Jan 07-12) – 20 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

15

38

39.5

+£3.39

+8.9

Alan Swinbank

8

22

36.4

+£17.25

+78.4

Alan King

8

55

14.6

-£20.66

-37.6

Keith Reveley

3

21

14.3

-£9.50

-45.2

Philip Hobbs

3

23

13.0

-£10.50

-45.7

Howard Johnson

3

24

12.5

-£13.57

-56.6

Malcolm Jefferson

2

20

10.0

-£13.25

-66.3

Seamus Mullins

2

21

9.5

+£50.00

+238.1

Paul Nicholls

2

22

9.1

-£15.75

-71.6

Brendan Powell

1

23

4.4

-£20.00

-87.0

David Pipe

1

25

4.0

-£21.00

-84.0

Michael Easterby

1

27

3.7

-£1.00

-3.7

Colin Tizzard

1

31

3.2

-£24.00

-77.4

Paul Webber

0

24

0.0

-£24.00

-100.0

 

Difficult to find profits there, but clearly Henderson and Swinbank are worth close scrutiny. For the record Charlie Longsdon has a decent record thanks to 5 wins from 16 (not enough runs to make the table).

 

All in all there seems to be some useful data for Janaury and good luck punting this month!

 

 








Free Registration
 
Systems
Free Horse Racing System
 
 
Racing Research
Racing Report Vault
 
Flat Racing Trainer Report
 
Horse Racing Research Articles
 
Bookmakers & Odds
Bookmakers and Free Bets
 
Odds Comparison
 
Top Link Partners


 

Copyright PunterProfits.com