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January Trainers 2012
January Trainers 2012 by David Renham
As long term members will know, each month, I write an article based on past trainer performance focusing on a particular month. In general trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of January with data taken from 2006 to 2011.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (Jan 06-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 14%+)
Nicky Henderson tops the list in terms of strike rate (as he did in both November and December). Despite his excellent strike rate, backing all his runners would have yielded a loss. However, there have been areas where profits could have been achieved. For example, his 4yo runners have an excellent record in this first month of the year thanks to 13 winners from just 26 runners (SR 50%) for a profit of £25.42 (ROI + 97.8%). Hence one should take careful of any 4yo runners he sends out this month. Henderson has also made decent profits from horses coming back off a break of 7 weeks or more - 45 winners from 114 runners (SR 39.5%) for a profit of £31.69 (ROI +27.8%). I also want to highlight an “in running” angle for Henderson. The reason being that “in running” betting is becoming very popular – only 26 of his runners took an early lead, but 16 went on to win so if a Henderson horse leads early get on as soon as possible!
Victor Dartnall is an underrated trainer by some and he has a very solid January record. He has had a couple of decent priced winners which have skewed the figures a little, but if you focus on runners from the top three of the betting his record reads a tidy 15 wins from 51 (SR 29.4%) for a profit of £19.25 (ROI + 37.8%). For in running punters it should be noted that when his horses are held up only 2 of the 36 runners have won.
It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Jan 06-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5% or lower)
As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses – 17 of the 19 in the list have produced losses of over 50p in the £. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in January since 2006:
All chases (Jan 06-11) – 25 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
Henderson tops the list again in terms of strike rate, and he has made a small overall profit. It should be noted that although Venetia Williams has made a profit with her chasers, in both January 2010 and 2011 she struggled – 2 wins from 24 two years ago and last year just 1 win in 22.
Moving onto hurdle races now:
All hurdle races (Jan 06-11) – 40 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Alan King has made decent profits although 2006 and 2007 were his best years by far. It looks best to focus on non handicaps, especially novice hurdles, although 2011 saw him pick up just 2 winners in this sphere.
Moving onto bumpers next. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 20 bumper runners during this month over the 6-year period:
All bumper races (Jan 06-11) – 20 runs minimum
Difficult to find profits there, but clearly Henderson and Swinbank are trainers to take close note of.
All in all there seems to be some useful data for Janaury and as ever, good luck punting this month!
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