January Trainers 2012 by David Renham

As long term members will know, each month, I write an article based on past trainer performance focusing on a particular month. In general trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of January with data taken from 2006 to 2011.

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

All races (Jan 06-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson	105	337	31.2	-£0.04	+0.0
Alan Swinbank	16	62	25.8	+£8.25	+13.3
Paul Nicholls	86	368	23.4	-£73.95	-20.1
Nick Williams	12	55	21.8	+£14.51	+26.4
Victor Dartnall	18	92	19.6	+£55.25	+60.1
Nicky Richards	31	173	17.9	+£10.01	+5.8
Keith Reveley	28	157	17.8	-£23.24	-14.8
Peter Winkworth	9	52	17.3	+£49.25	+94.7
Charlie Mann	27	157	17.2	-£1.60	-1.0
David Pipe	57	333	17.1	+£17.42	+5.2
Alan King	72	448	16.1	+£57.66	+12.9
Venetia Williams	58	361	16.1	+£36.15	+10.0
Jim Best	8	52	15.4	-£9.88	-19.0
Donald McCain	35	236	14.8	-£91.38	-38.7
Jim Goldie	12	81	14.8	+£25.25	+31.2
Kate Walton	8	54	14.8	+£17.50	+32.4
Martin Keighley	8	55	14.6	-£7.92	-14.4
Richard Lee	12	85	14.1	+£54.83	+64.5

 

Nicky Henderson tops the list in terms of strike rate (as he did in both November and December). Despite his excellent strike rate, backing all his runners would have yielded a loss. However, there have been areas where profits could have been achieved. For example, his 4yo runners have an excellent record in this first month of the year thanks to 13 winners from just 26 runners (SR 50%) for a profit of £25.42 (ROI + 97.8%). Hence one should take careful of any 4yo runners he sends out this month. Henderson has also made decent profits from horses coming back off a break of 7 weeks or more - 45 winners from 114 runners (SR 39.5%) for a profit of £31.69 (ROI +27.8%). I also want to highlight an “in running” angle for Henderson. The reason being that “in running” betting is becoming very popular – only 26 of his runners took an early lead, but 16 went on to win so if a Henderson horse leads early get on as soon as possible!

Victor Dartnall is an underrated trainer by some and he has a very solid January record. He has had a couple of decent priced winners which have skewed the figures a little, but if you focus on runners from the top three of the betting his record reads a tidy 15 wins from 51 (SR 29.4%) for a profit of £19.25 (ROI + 37.8%). For in running punters it should be noted that when his horses are held up only 2 of the 36 runners have won.

It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (Jan 06-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5% or lower)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Richard Phillips	8	159	5.0	-£122.11	-76.8
Chris Bealby	3	62	4.8	-£39.50	-63.7
Robert Johnson	3	65	4.6	-£44.00	-67.7
Chris Grant	4	96	4.2	-£60.00	-62.5
Michael Scudamore	5	122	4.1	-£55.85	-45.8
Michael Chapman	2	51	3.9	-£33.00	-64.7
John Cornwall	2	53	3.8	-£36.75	-69.3
Linda Jewell	2	53	3.8	-£38.50	-72.6
Martin Todhunter	3	81	3.7	-£61.50	-75.9
Seamus Mullins	5	140	3.6	-£57.13	-40.8
Chris Down	3	85	3.5	-£54.50	-64.1
Jonathan Geake	2	58	3.5	-£47.50	-81.9
Keith Goldsworthy	2	70	2.9	-£54.50	-77.9
Sue Bradburne	2	81	2.5	-£71.00	-87.7
Lucy Normile	1	50	2.0	-£39.00	-78.0
D J Wintle	1	54	1.9	-£44.00	-81.5
James Frost	1	61	1.6	-£54.50	-89.3
P Monteith	1	83	1.2	-£80.13	-96.5
Brian Storey	0	51	0.0	-£51.00	-100.0

 

As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses – 17 of the 19 in the list have produced losses of over 50p in the £. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in January since 2006:

All chases (Jan 06-11) – 25 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson	32	98	32.7	+£5.41	+5.5
Paul Nicholls	38	155	24.5	-£17.90	-11.6
Neil Mulholland	6	25	24.0	+£9.25	+37.0
David Pipe	24	112	21.4	+£33.95	+30.3
Keith Reveley	12	58	20.7	-£1.27	-2.2
Nick Williams	6	29	20.7	+£14.23	+49.1
Venetia Williams	35	175	20.0	+£6.31	+3.6
Neil King	5	25	20.0	+£7.63	+30.5
Nick Gifford	9	48	18.8	-£6.20	-12.9
Henry Daly	13	77	16.9	-£10.73	-13.9
Jonjo O'Neill	24	144	16.7	-£1.12	-0.8
Lucinda Russell	15	90	16.7	-£12.13	-13.5
Gary Moore	14	84	16.7	+£74.25	+88.4
Colin Tizzard	13	78	16.7	+£15.38	+19.7
Charlie Mann	9	56	16.1	-£18.80	-33.6

 

Henderson tops the list again in terms of strike rate, and he has made a small overall profit. It should be noted that although Venetia Williams has made a profit with her chasers, in both January 2010 and 2011 she struggled – 2 wins from 24 two years ago and last year just 1 win in 22.

Moving onto hurdle races now:

All hurdle races (Jan 06-11) – 40 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson	57	203	28.1	-£12.09	-6.0
Paul Nicholls	45	185	24.3	-£38.29	-20.7
Nicky Richards	23	119	19.3	+£41.98	+35.3
Charlie Mann	17	93	18.3	+£20.20	+21.7
Alan King	49	277	17.7	+£92.84	+33.5
Keith Reveley	13	78	16.7	-£12.47	-16.0
Victor Dartnall	10	62	16.1	+£37.50	+60.5
David Pipe	32	202	15.8	-£1.53	-0.8
Donald McCain	23	150	15.3	-£61.33	-40.9
Malcolm Jefferson	8	53	15.1	+£28.63	+54.0
Robin Dickin	6	40	15.0	-£1.25	-3.1

 

Alan King has made decent profits although 2006 and 2007 were his best years by far. It looks best to focus on non handicaps, especially novice hurdles, although 2011 saw him pick up just 2 winners in this sphere.

Moving onto bumpers next. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 20 bumper runners during this month over the 6-year period:

All bumper races (Jan 06-11) – 20 runs minimum

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson	16	36	44.4	+£6.64	+18.4
Alan Swinbank	9	27	33.3	+£9.65	+35.7
Nigel Twiston-Davies	4	23	17.4	-£6.38	-27.7
Alan King	9	58	15.5	-£20.41	-35.2
Keith Reveley	3	21	14.3	-£9.50	-45.2
Paul Nicholls	3	28	10.7	-£17.75	-63.4
Seamus Mullins	2	20	10.0	+£51.00	+255.0
Philip Hobbs	2	23	8.7	-£15.50	-67.4
Colin Tizzard	2	26	7.7	-£13.50	-51.9
Michael Easterby	2	31	6.5	+£1.50	+4.8
Brendan Powell	1	24	4.2	-£21.00	-87.5
Paul Webber	1	28	3.6	-£22.50	-80.4

 

Difficult to find profits there, but clearly Henderson and Swinbank are trainers to take close note of.

All in all there seems to be some useful data for Janaury and as ever, good luck punting this month!