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January Trainers 2012


January Trainers 2012 by David Renham

As long term members will know, each month, I write an article based on past trainer performance focusing on a particular month. In general trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of January with data taken from 2006 to 2011.

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

All races (Jan 06-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson 105 337 31.2 -£0.04 +0.0
Alan Swinbank 16 62 25.8 +£8.25 +13.3
Paul Nicholls 86 368 23.4 -£73.95 -20.1
Nick Williams 12 55 21.8 +£14.51 +26.4
Victor Dartnall 18 92 19.6 +£55.25 +60.1
Nicky Richards 31 173 17.9 +£10.01 +5.8
Keith Reveley 28 157 17.8 -£23.24 -14.8
Peter Winkworth 9 52 17.3 +£49.25 +94.7
Charlie Mann 27 157 17.2 -£1.60 -1.0
David Pipe 57 333 17.1 +£17.42 +5.2
Alan King 72 448 16.1 +£57.66 +12.9
Venetia Williams 58 361 16.1 +£36.15 +10.0
Jim Best 8 52 15.4 -£9.88 -19.0
Donald McCain 35 236 14.8 -£91.38 -38.7
Jim Goldie 12 81 14.8 +£25.25 +31.2
Kate Walton 8 54 14.8 +£17.50 +32.4
Martin Keighley 8 55 14.6 -£7.92 -14.4
Richard Lee 12 85 14.1 +£54.83 +64.5

 

Nicky Henderson tops the list in terms of strike rate (as he did in both November and December). Despite his excellent strike rate, backing all his runners would have yielded a loss. However, there have been areas where profits could have been achieved. For example, his 4yo runners have an excellent record in this first month of the year thanks to 13 winners from just 26 runners (SR 50%) for a profit of £25.42 (ROI + 97.8%). Hence one should take careful of any 4yo runners he sends out this month. Henderson has also made decent profits from horses coming back off a break of 7 weeks or more - 45 winners from 114 runners (SR 39.5%) for a profit of £31.69 (ROI +27.8%). I also want to highlight an “in running” angle for Henderson. The reason being that “in running” betting is becoming very popular – only 26 of his runners took an early lead, but 16 went on to win so if a Henderson horse leads early get on as soon as possible!

Victor Dartnall is an underrated trainer by some and he has a very solid January record. He has had a couple of decent priced winners which have skewed the figures a little, but if you focus on runners from the top three of the betting his record reads a tidy 15 wins from 51 (SR 29.4%) for a profit of £19.25 (ROI + 37.8%). For in running punters it should be noted that when his horses are held up only 2 of the 36 runners have won.

It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (Jan 06-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Richard Phillips 8 159 5.0 -£122.11 -76.8
Chris Bealby 3 62 4.8 -£39.50 -63.7
Robert Johnson 3 65 4.6 -£44.00 -67.7
Chris Grant 4 96 4.2 -£60.00 -62.5
Michael Scudamore 5 122 4.1 -£55.85 -45.8
Michael Chapman 2 51 3.9 -£33.00 -64.7
John Cornwall 2 53 3.8 -£36.75 -69.3
Linda Jewell 2 53 3.8 -£38.50 -72.6
Martin Todhunter 3 81 3.7 -£61.50 -75.9
Seamus Mullins 5 140 3.6 -£57.13 -40.8
Chris Down 3 85 3.5 -£54.50 -64.1
Jonathan Geake 2 58 3.5 -£47.50 -81.9
Keith Goldsworthy 2 70 2.9 -£54.50 -77.9
Sue Bradburne 2 81 2.5 -£71.00 -87.7
Lucy Normile 1 50 2.0 -£39.00 -78.0
D J Wintle 1 54 1.9 -£44.00 -81.5
James Frost 1 61 1.6 -£54.50 -89.3
P Monteith 1 83 1.2 -£80.13 -96.5
Brian Storey 0 51 0.0 -£51.00 -100.0

 

As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses – 17 of the 19 in the list have produced losses of over 50p in the £. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in January since 2006:

All chases (Jan 06-11) – 25 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson 32 98 32.7 +£5.41 +5.5
Paul Nicholls 38 155 24.5 -£17.90 -11.6
Neil Mulholland 6 25 24.0 +£9.25 +37.0
David Pipe 24 112 21.4 +£33.95 +30.3
Keith Reveley 12 58 20.7 -£1.27 -2.2
Nick Williams 6 29 20.7 +£14.23 +49.1
Venetia Williams 35 175 20.0 +£6.31 +3.6
Neil King 5 25 20.0 +£7.63 +30.5
Nick Gifford 9 48 18.8 -£6.20 -12.9
Henry Daly 13 77 16.9 -£10.73 -13.9
Jonjo O'Neill 24 144 16.7 -£1.12 -0.8
Lucinda Russell 15 90 16.7 -£12.13 -13.5
Gary Moore 14 84 16.7 +£74.25 +88.4
Colin Tizzard 13 78 16.7 +£15.38 +19.7
Charlie Mann 9 56 16.1 -£18.80 -33.6

 

Henderson tops the list again in terms of strike rate, and he has made a small overall profit. It should be noted that although Venetia Williams has made a profit with her chasers, in both January 2010 and 2011 she struggled – 2 wins from 24 two years ago and last year just 1 win in 22.

Moving onto hurdle races now:

All hurdle races (Jan 06-11) – 40 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson 57 203 28.1 -£12.09 -6.0
Paul Nicholls 45 185 24.3 -£38.29 -20.7
Nicky Richards 23 119 19.3 +£41.98 +35.3
Charlie Mann 17 93 18.3 +£20.20 +21.7
Alan King 49 277 17.7 +£92.84 +33.5
Keith Reveley 13 78 16.7 -£12.47 -16.0
Victor Dartnall 10 62 16.1 +£37.50 +60.5
David Pipe 32 202 15.8 -£1.53 -0.8
Donald McCain 23 150 15.3 -£61.33 -40.9
Malcolm Jefferson 8 53 15.1 +£28.63 +54.0
Robin Dickin 6 40 15.0 -£1.25 -3.1

 

Alan King has made decent profits although 2006 and 2007 were his best years by far. It looks best to focus on non handicaps, especially novice hurdles, although 2011 saw him pick up just 2 winners in this sphere.

Moving onto bumpers next. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 20 bumper runners during this month over the 6-year period:

All bumper races (Jan 06-11) – 20 runs minimum

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Nicky Henderson 16 36 44.4 +£6.64 +18.4
Alan Swinbank 9 27 33.3 +£9.65 +35.7
Nigel Twiston-Davies 4 23 17.4 -£6.38 -27.7
Alan King 9 58 15.5 -£20.41 -35.2
Keith Reveley 3 21 14.3 -£9.50 -45.2
Paul Nicholls 3 28 10.7 -£17.75 -63.4
Seamus Mullins 2 20 10.0 +£51.00 +255.0
Philip Hobbs 2 23 8.7 -£15.50 -67.4
Colin Tizzard 2 26 7.7 -£13.50 -51.9
Michael Easterby 2 31 6.5 +£1.50 +4.8
Brendan Powell 1 24 4.2 -£21.00 -87.5
Paul Webber 1 28 3.6 -£22.50 -80.4

 

Difficult to find profits there, but clearly Henderson and Swinbank are trainers to take close note of.

All in all there seems to be some useful data for Janaury and as ever, good luck punting this month!








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