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Irish Trainers by David Renham
With Irish racing getting more coverage these days I felt it was time to share some Irish stats with you. Irish racing stats are far less prevalent than UK stats so I am hoping we can uncover a few decent angles. The data has been taken from Irish racing between 2008 to 2012 – turf racing in Ireland only. All profits/losses are quoted to SP.
The focus is on Irish trainer records in different types of race.
All races – Let me look at the overall figures first.To qualify trainers must have saddled at least 100 runners. The list is ordered by strike rate and I have included all trainers with a strike rate of 10% or more:
It is interesting to see how few trainers in Ireland have overall strike rates of 10%+. In the UK there would be close to 100 trainers managing to secure a strike rate of 10% or more. This is partly due to the fact that Irish races do have bigger fields on average than UK races, but more down to the fact that there are fewer trainers. The other striking fact is the fact that the overall profit/loss/ROIs are very poor – even for the better trainers. Aidan O’Brien tops the list scoring nearly 1 in every 5 starts – however backing all his runners would have yielded losses of around 20 pence in the £. It is difficult to find any positive angles when looking in more detail at O’Brien stats. You would have made a profit back his horses that started second in the betting – a profit of 11 pence in the £ thanks to a 27% strike rate. You would also have made a profit backing his runners at Cork, Killarney and Wexford. Finally any horse he sends to Epsom that then returns to run in Ireland next time is worth noting as they have scored over 30% of the time making a good profit.
John Oxx is second on the list in terms of strike rate but he too has a pretty poor set of figures in terms of return on investment. However, he has an excellent record on the few occasions he sends a runner to Tramore – 11 wins and 5 placed runners from just 19 for retunrs of 55 pence in the £. He has sent over 250 runners to Leopardstown and he has scored 20% of the time for a near break-even situation. He also breaks even with horses that finished 2nd LTO, but I would avoid his LTO winners as they have produced losses of 37 pence in the £.
As with all data, it is always worth looking at trainers that have performed less well in terms of strike rate. Here are the trainers whose overall turf strike rate has been 5% or less in the last five seasons:
Some significant losses there and clearly these are trainers which we should be extremely wary of.
2yo races – onto trainer performance in 2yo races. I have included all trainers that have had at least 50 runners.
O’Brien and Oxx are first and second once again and John Oxx’s record with 2yos is actually very solid and worth looking into in more detail. Oxx has made a profit in 2yo races with horses priced 12/1 or shorter – 44 wins from 199 (SR 22.1%) for a profit of £46.54 (ROI +23.4%). His Irish bred runners have performed best, while his female runners have outperformed his male runners in terms of returns (similar strike rates). His 2yo record at Leopardstown is impressive – 27 winners from 73 runners (SR 27.4%) for a profit of £27.34 (ROI + 37.5%).
2yo debuts – breaking down the 2yo stats a little more here looking at the results for trainers with horses making their debut as a 2yo (trainers with 40 runners+ qualify):
These stats do not offer up any significant angles – well some laying ones perhaps! Let us see if the 2nd career run as a 2yo gives us more positive data:
2yo 2nd career starts (30 runs+ to qualify)
One would expect these to be better than the debut stats and they are. O’Brien, Oxx and Weld all have decent enough records with 2yos having their second career run. Aidan O’Brien’s runners having their second start as a 2yo do best in the early part of the year – from April to July they have produced 45 winners from 99 runners (SR 45.5%) for a profit of £31.27 (ROI +31.6%). Compare this to his record fropm August to the end of the year – 25 wins from 104 (SR 24%) for a loss of £36.77 (ROI -35.4%).
John Oxx has a good record once more at Leopardstown – 10 winners from 24 (SR 41.7%) for a profit of £14.92 (ROI +62.2%). He also has a good record late in the season. Combining October and November he has saddled 10 winners from 30 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £14.76 (ROI +49.2%).
Meanwhile, Dermot Weld’s second run 2yos have secured an impressive 5 wins from only 6 runners at Listowel.
Group races – next I am look at the higher class races – namely Group contests. These stats include results for age groups (trainers with 30+ runners qualify):
Dermot Weld clearly heads the pack here but despite a superb strike rate, his returns have been only 6 pence in the £. Positive angles to note for Weld in Group races include a 35% strike rate at Leopardstown (returns 43p in the £), and a 37p in the £ return on his 3yo runners.
As we can, positive angles are few and far between, and hence we cannot go blindly backing the top stables. Indeed, in many cases we would better off swerving some of the top stables and looking for value elsewhere.
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