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Irish Record At The Cheltenham Festival


Irish Record At The Cheltenham Festival

 

The Cheltenham festival is almost upon us and we can look forward to 4 days of terrific racing. In this article I take a look at the record of the Irish over the past 10 years. This piece is designed to give you a decent amount of facts and figures with the hope of finding a smattering of backing and laying angles. Of course with the Festival being so competitive, it is likely that the laying angles will outnumber the backing ones. All profits and losses have been calculated to SP.

 

All races - a look first at the record of all Irish runners:

 

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1097

75

6.8

-£162.60

-14.8

 

75 winners is a decent return, but there is a low overall strike rate as you would expect. Let us break down the data:

 

Year – firstly a look at their performance by year:

 

Year

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

2003

95

6

6.3

-£57.25

-60.3

2004

71

4

5.6

+£1.50

+2.1

2005

88

9

10.2

+£14.50

+16.5

2006

119

10

8.4

+£49.25

+41.4

2007

123

5

4.1

-£42.00

-34.1

2008

118

7

5.9

-£13.00

-11.0

2009

127

9

7.1

-£61.25

-48.2

2010

130

7

5.4

-£17.50

-13.5

2011

100

13

13.0

+£37.58

+37.6

2012

126

5

4.0

-£74.43

-59.1

 

2006 and 2011 were particularly good years and when Irish raiders get on a ‘roll’ they are worth close scrutiny. Last year though saw their worst performance in terms of strike rate and their second worst in terms of returns.

 

Handicap/non handicap – a split by handicap and non handicap next:

 

Race type

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Handicap

410

27

6.6

-£36.00

-8.8

Non-Handicap

687

48

7.0

-£126.60

-18.4

 

Handicaps have proved slightly better in terms of smaller losses.

 

Class – a breakdown of class follows.

 

Class

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Grade 1

537

36

6.7

-£112.50

-20.9

Grade 2

46

6

13.0

-£28.10

-61.1

Grade 3

198

15

7.6

+£21.50

+10.9

Listed

110

4

3.6

-£17.00

-15.5

Class 2

206

14

6.8

-£26.50

-12.9

 

No noticeable bias here.

 

Market rank – let me see if the market has been near to the mark:

 

Market rank

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1

83

20

24.1

-£8.60

-10.4

2

73

10

13.7

-£13.00

-17.8

3

78

9

11.5

-£5.00

-6.4

4

75

10

13.3

+£27.00

+36.0

5

84

5

6.0

-£28.00

-33.3

6

56

4

7.1

£6.00

10.7

7+

648

17

2.6

-£141.00

-21.8

 

In general the market has been a good guide, and if you had backed any Irish runner in the top four of the betting over the ten years you would made a profit - albeit only 40 pence! Horses that are 7th or lower in the betting market have scored just 2.6% of the time and look best avoided (even though the odd big priced winner crops up).

 

Previous course runs – has course experienceany relevance for Irish raiders?

 

Course runs

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

 0

622

34

5.5

-£180.25

-29.0

 1

239

21

8.8

+£83.50

+34.9

2 or more

236

20

8.5

-£65.85

-27.9

 

Horses that have raced once before at Cheltenham have made a profit, but it is unclear whether this is a stat taking serious note of especially when you consider their strike rate is very similar to the 2 or more runs strike rate.

 

Course LTO – to qualify for this I have used 30 runs as a minimum:

 

Course LTO

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Punchestown

148

16

10.8

+£4.15

+2.8

Leopardstown

333

27

8.1

-£75.25

-22.6

Thurles

43

3

7.0

+£30.00

+69.8

Navan

102

7

6.9

+£13.50

+13.2

Cheltenham

34

2

5.9

-£23.00

-67.6

Gowran Park

84

4

4.8

-£29.50

-35.1

Fairyhouse

108

5

4.6

-£44.00

-40.7

Naas

95

4

4.2

-£17.50

-18.4

 

The majority of Irish winners had raced at either Punchestown or Leopardstown LTO. Admittedly these two course have provided the most runners, but a good way of looking at it is that they have produced 57% of the winners from only 44% of the total runners.

 

Position LTO - recent form is an area that many punters take notice of so let me look at the finishing position of their most recent run:

 

Position LTO

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1st

405

46

11.4

+£23.40

+5.8

2nd

184

12

6.5

-£28.50

-15.5

3rd

120

4

3.3

-£42.50

-35.4

4th

91

4

4.4

+£15.00

+16.5

5th

57

3

5.3

+£21.00

+36.8

6th

42

1

2.4

-£33.50

-79.8

7th+ (completed)

125

4

3.2

-£65.50

-52.4

Failed to finish

73

1

1.4

-£52.00

-71.2

 

LTO winners have made an overall profit which is worth noting. Essentially horses that finished 6th or worse LTO or failed to finish LTO have really struggled.

 

Days since last run - this is the next area I wanted to investigate:

 

Days off track

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1-10 days

25

1

4.0

+£1.00

+4.0

11-15 days

36

1

2.8

+£15.00

+41.7

16-20 days

123

4

3.3

-£69.00

-56.1

21-25 days

105

4

3.8

-£69.75

-66.4

26-30 days

85

4

4.7

-£30.50

-35.9

31-45 days

344

31

9.0

+£119.00

+34.6

46-60 days

174

13

7.5

-£43.75

-25.1

61-75 days

43

1

2.3

-£32.00

-74.4

76-90 days

66

9

13.6

+£1.50

+2.3

91-120 days

44

3

6.8

-£14.50

-33.0

121 days+

52

4

7.7

-£39.60

-76.2

 

The 31-45 days bracket has made positive returns with the second best strike rate. Difficult to evaluate how significant these figures are but I suspect this rest period is more of a positive than a negative.   

 

Market rank LTO - a look at the betting market on their most recent start:

 

Market rank LTO

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1

350

34

9.7

+£3.90

+1.1

2

198

14

7.1

-£46.00

-23.2

3

129

5

3.9

-£41.00

-31.8

4

117

10

8.5

-£22.50

-19.2

5

80

3

3.8

-£17.50

-21.9

6

64

5

7.8

+£43.00

+67.2

7+

159

4

2.5

-£82.50

-51.9

 

LTO favourites have made a small profit but from a lowish strike rate. However, if you concentrated on LTO favourites that won the figures start to look fairly impressive - 30 wins from 218 (SR 13.8%) for a profit of £65.40 (ROI +30%).

 

Having looked at the overall figures, let me break some of the stats down into chases and hurdle races - chases first:

 

Chases

 

Handicap/non handicap

 

Race type

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Handicap

192

12

6.3

-£93.50

-48.7

Non-Handicap

257

20

7.8

-£7.00

-2.7

 

Non handicap chase results have proved superior both in terms of strike rate and returns.

 

Class

 

Class

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Grade 1

143

13

9.1

-£12.00

-8.4

Grade 2

13

2

15.4

-£4.00

-30.8

Grade 3

64

4

6.3

-£31.50

-49.2

Listed

34

1

2.9

-£24.00

-70.6

Class 2

195

12

6.2

-£29.00

-14.9

 

As with the main figures there is nothing significant to note.

 

Age - I did not look at this area originally as I felt it would be more relevant to split the figures into chases and hurdles:

 

Age

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

5

1

0

0.0

-£1.00

-100.0

6

25

1

4.0

-£21.00

-84.0

7

105

11

10.5

+£20.75

+19.8

8

110

5

4.5

-£20.00

-18.2

9

80

8

10.0

-£5.75

-7.2

10+

128

7

5.5

-£73.50

-57.4

 

7yos have the best record, while 10yos and older have generally struggled.

 

Market rank

 

Market rank

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1

29

7

24.1

-£1.50

-5.2

2

38

7

18.4

+£2.00

+5.3

3

39

8

20.5

+£27.00

+69.2

4

25

1

4.0

-£14.00

-56.0

5

43

2

4.7

-£21.00

-48.8

6

24

1

4.2

-£7.00

-29.2

7+

251

6

2.4

-£86.00

-34.3

 

There is clear market bias here with Irish chasers from the top three in the betting having an excellent record.

 

Position LTO

 

Position LTO

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1st

125

17

13.6

+£20.00

+16.0

2nd

76

7

9.2

+£1.50

+2.0

3rd

61

1

1.6

-£50.00

-82.0

4th

51

3

5.9

+£21.00

+41.2

5th

21

1

4.8

-£15.00

-71.4

6th + (completed)

63

2

3.2

-£47.00

-74.6

Failed to finish

52

1

1.9

-£31.00

-59.6

 

Horses that finished first or second LTO are the horses to concentrate on from a positive perspective.

 

Days since last run

 

Days off track

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1-10 days

7

1

14.3

+£19.00

+271.4

11-15 days

12

0

0.0

-£12.00

-100.0

16-20 days

55

0

0.0

-£55.00

-100.0

21-25 days

42

2

4.8

-£29.75

-70.8

26-30 days

34

3

8.8

+£12.50

+36.8

31-45 days

157

14

8.9

+£15.75

+10.0

46-60 days

63

6

9.5

-£11.00

-17.5

61-75 days

10

0

0.0

-£10.00

-100.0

76-90 days

26

5

19.2

+£5.00

+19.2

91-120 days

20

1

5.0

-£12.00

-60.0

121 days+

23

0

0.0

-£23.00

-100.0

 

The figures for chasers returning to the track within 25 days is very poor and these runners look best avoided.

 

Hurdles - onto hurdles now:

 

Handicap/non handicap

 

Race type

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Handicap

218

15

6.9

+£57.50

+26.4

Non-Handicap

325

21

6.5

-£103.10

-31.7

 

Some big priced handicap winnershave skewed the figures somewhat.

 

 

Class

 

Class

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Grade 1

289

16

5.5

-£84.00

-29.1

Grade 2

33

4

12.1

-£24.10

-73.0

Grade 3

134

11

8.2

+£53.00

+39.6

Listed

76

3

3.9

+£7.00

+9.2

Class 2

11

2

18.2

+£2.50

+22.7

 

No clear patterns despite Grade 3 runners showing a profit.

 

Age

 

Age

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

4

108

2

1.9

-£77.00

-71.3

5

81

8

9.9

+£31.50

+38.9

6

153

12

7.8

-£9.00

-5.9

7

101

8

7.9

+£15.08

+14.9

8

50

4

8.0

-£20.18

-40.4

9

27

2

7.4

+£37.00

+137.0

10

23

0

0.0

-£23.00

-100.0

 

4yos have a very poor record and look worth avoiding as do the limited number of 10oy+ runners.

 

Market rank

 

Market rank

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1

47

12

25.5

-£4.60

-9.8

2

29

0

0.0

-£29.00

-100.0

3

35

1

2.9

-£28.00

-80.0

4

41

9

22.0

+£50.00

+122.0

5

34

2

5.9

-£13.00

-38.2

6

27

3

11.1

+£18.00

+66.7

7+

330

9

2.7

-£39.00

-11.8

 

Some very weird looking stats here with favourites scoring 1 in every 4 races while 2nd and 3rd favourites have combined to score once in 64 runs!

 

Position LTO

 

Position LTO

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1st

187

22

11.8

+£7.90

+4.2

2nd

99

5

5.1

-£21.00

-21.2

3rd

58

3

5.2

+£8.50

+14.7

4th

39

1

2.6

-£5.00

-12.8

5th

36

2

5.6

+£36.00

+100.0

6th

28

0

0.0

-£28.00

-100.0

7th+ (completed)

75

3

4.0

-£23.00

-30.7

Failed to finish

21

0

0.0

-£21.00

-100.0

 

LTO winners have a decent enough record.

 

Days since last run

 

Days off track

Bets

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1-10 days

15

0

0.0

-£15.00

-100.0

11-15 days

22

1

4.5

+£29.00

+131.8

16-20 days

59

3

5.1

-£39.00

-66.1

21-25 days

51

1

2.0

-£41.00

-80.4

26-30 days

48

1

2.1

-£40.00

-83.3

31-45 days

165

16

9.7

+£120.75

+73.2

46-60 days

97

6

6.2

-£35.75

-36.9

61-75 days

28

1

3.6

-£17.00

-60.7

76-90 days

26

2

7.7

-£3.00

-11.5

91-120 days

16

2

12.5

£5.50

34.4

121 days+

16

3

18.8

-£10.10

-63.1

 

As with the overall figures, Irish runners having a break of between 31 and 45 days have made a decent profit.

 

Conclusion - it is not easy to find profitable angles despite the fact Irish runners as a group have a better strike rate than UK runners as a group (6.8% versus 4.9%). However, these are the areas to concentrate on:

 

All races

 

- respect horses from the top four of the betting;

- respect runners that raced at Punchestown LTO;

- respect LTO winners;

- be wary of horses that finished 6th or worse / failed to finish LTO;

- respect LTO favourites especially if they won LTO.

 

Chases

 

- respect 7yos;

- be wary of horses 10 and older;

- respect the top three in the betting;

- respect horses that came 1st or 2nd LTO;

- be wary of horses returning to the track within 25 days.

 

Hurdles

 

- be wary of 4yos;

- respect LTO winners;

- respect horses off the track for 31-45 days.

 


 








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