The Cheltenham festival is one of the best meetings traditionally for using a trends / stats based approach.

 

I provided subscribers to my RacingTrends service with a pdf file file detailing some key Cheltenham trends.

That document is at the link below.

 

Cheltenham Statistics

 

( there was info for additional races supplied by email after the above )

 

So let us see how the trends performed this year.

 

Tuesday

 

Supreme Novices Hurdle – the favourite Cousin Vinny did not pass the strongest stat (LTO winner) and hence already looked vulnerable. Ideally you needed to look for a horse that was Irish trained, won LTO and in the top portion of the betting. Also French breds have a poor record so it was best to avoid those. The two horses that stood out on the trends were Kempes and Go Native. Go Native got the stats boys off to a terrific start with a 12/1 success.

 

Arkle – no horses stood out on the trends early in the day but by race time Kalahari King had been backed into 8/1 (from around 14s early) and was solid on most of the trends. He was now in the right price bracket, a French bred and had won LTO. He had also won or been placed on all his completed chase starts. The one negative was that he an 8yo, but he had only started his NH career at the end of 2007 so had very few miles on the clock. He finished a brave 2^nd beaten a head. The winner Forpadydeplasterer was solid on the trends in terms of finishing 2^nd LTO, was in the right price bracket, and was the in the correct age bracket. He had also finished in the first two on all four of his chase starts which again was another stats positive. All in all another good race for trends considering there was no stand out selection.

 

William Hill Chase – favourites had a poor record before this race but Wichita Lineman broke the sequence getting up to win the dying strides. In terms of the other trends, he was not quite in the perfect weight bracket, but had won LTO. The two horses that matched the trends best Tot O Whiskey and Wind Instrument finished 9^th and 10^th respectively. Majimar was around 3^rd best on the trends and ran a blinder to finish 2^nd at 14/1. All in all it was not a great results for the stats boys.

 

Champion Hurdle – despite Kachit breaking 5yo hoodoo last year, the 5yo stat was a millstone around the neck of the favourite Binocular. I was happy to lay him at the price purely on that stat. He finished 3^rd and despite 5yos filling 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th they failed to win. It was more of case of last years 4yos being an extraordinarily good group of horses that three of them managed to go so close. The winner Punjabi was not a strong trends horse however, although this year there was no clear trends pick. All in all the stats held up ok in this race.

 

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase – although there had only been a handful of these races at the festival, the stats were simple – the winner would be trained by Edna Bolger. Indeed it was a 1-2-3 for the stable and a hence a good result for the trends.

 

Wednesday

 

National Hunt Chase – there was no clear trends pick here and the winner Tricky Trickster broke a key stat winning the race at the age of 6.

 

Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle – two horses stood out on the trends here. Mikael D’haguenet and Diamond Harry passed all 5 main positive stats – they had won last time out, came from the top 5 in the betting, were aged 5 or 6, had raced within the last 60 days and had contested a Grade / Listed race LTO. They finished 1^st and 3^rd in a good race for the stats.

 

Royal & Sun Alliance Chase – no horse matched all the trends perfectly, but Cooldine came closest. The only stat he failed to pass was having been off the track for at least 28 days. However, he had been off the track for 24 days so it was hardly a real “stats buster”. Everything else was rock solid on the trends – he had won LTO, was aged 7 and was trained by Willie Mullins. He was well backed from 4/1 in the morning to 9/4 at the off and he won comfortably at 9/4. The second horse Horner Woods was also very solid on the trends having won LTO, been off the track for 39 days and being aged 7. He finished 2^nd at a massive 66/1. An excellent race for the trends.

 

Queen Mother Champion Chase – with three co second favourites this race centred around the top four in the betting from a trends’ perspective. LTO winners are the ones to follow and only hot favourite Master Minded had won LTO. He had previously won at the festival which was another positive and his win was another good one for stats. The runner up Well Chief had also previously won at the festival to round off another good race for the trends.

 

Coral Cup – with Lough Derg left in the race it meant we had over half the field carrying 10st with the majority of them running out of the handicap. That made using any weight stats as a basis of a selection quite tricky. Also the race had very few solid candidates using all the other key trends. French breds had a good record in the race and Mirage Dore was the best of these in terms of being joint 6^th in the betting market. He had also won LTO which was a big positive and he was in the right age bracket. He was arguably the best trends pick although he had previously won at Cheltenham which was a negative for this contest. Having said that, he did finish a brave 2^nd at 14/1. The winner Ninetieth Minute did pass two important stats being aged 6 and being a LTO winner. He was joint 6^th in the betting (one place away from being in the ideal sort of price). Not a bad race for the stats considering nothing stood out.

 

Championship Bumper – usually a very good race for trends followers. Bascially you need to look at the top 6 in the betting, Irish bred and Irish trained, a LTO winner and aged 5 or 6 (ideally 5 but 6yos had a good recent record). 5 of the front 6 in the betting passed the tests, only the favourite Rite of Passage didn’t. From that group of 5 Dunquib was the best fancied being backed in from 15/2 to 9/2 and won extremely impressively by a double figure margin. Another good result for the stats boys.

 

Thursday

 

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle – the strongest stat for this race is the LTO winner stat with 8 of the prevoisu 13 winners LTO winners. Considering less than 20% of the total runners have been last time out winners, this is a powerful stat. Only three horses came into the race having won on their latest start. Kayf Aramis, P'tit Fute and Synchronised. Three LTO winners out of a field of 26. The result? Kayf Aramis won at 16/1.

 

World Hurdle – this has been a market driven race where it has paid to stick to horses priced 15/2 or shorter – this left us just the top three in the betting to focus on. Indeed all three runners passed the other 4 key stats – they had won or finished 2^nd LTO, they were hold up performers, they had raced 3 or fewer times that season and were priced 15/2 or shorter LTO. They finished 1^st, 2^nd and 4^th for another good race for the stats.

 

Festival Plate Chase – this race had been a good one for French breds in recent years and also a race to look for a bigger priced winner. The last eight winners had been priced 12/1 or bigger and using these two stats narrowed it down to 10 of the 23 runners. Another key stat is to have finished in the top five LTO and this cut the shortlist to 8. The other strong stat has been weight with 7 of the last 10 winners having carried 10st 9lb or less. This trimmed the list to two – Something Wells who was assigned 10st 12lb but with a 5lb claimer on board meant he carried 10st 7; Le Burf who carried 10st 4lb. Something Wells carried on the terrific week for the trends with a 33/1 winner.

 

Kim Muir Chase – this race was traditionally one where horses priced 16/1 or bigger are the ones to concentrate on with 24 of the 40 win and placed horses having been that price or bigger in the previous 10 renewals. Age wise 8 to 10yos was the right age bracket, and horses with an OR of 128 or lower also had a cracking record. That left us with just 3 trends candidates – two of which Pretty Star and Newbay Prop finished 2^nd and 3^rd at 16/1 and 20/1 respectively. Although the trends did not pinpoint the winner, it was another race where the trends have proved very strong.

 

Friday

 

Triumph Hurdle – several horses had won LTO and won at least twice over hurdles which are two key stats for the race. Narrowing down further to horses that had run had run in the last seven weeks left us with Walkon, Silk Drum and Ebadiyan. Of these three Walkon did best finishing 2^nd, while Ebadiyan ran out at the second last when leading and holding every chance. The winner Zaynar had missed out on the recent run stat but having said that he was only 6 days over.

 

CountyHandicap Hurdle – 5yos had a very good recent record and only 5 horses this year were aged 5. The winner was a 5yo again – American Trilogy at 20/1; however, of the 5yos Aachen and Sesenta were the better trends picks having finished in the first three LTO.

 

Gold Cup – the great Kauto Star had several positive trends including having won LTO, being in the right age bracket, ran in the King George, been off the track for over a month, had an OR of over 165, and he had won at a previous festival. However, he broke the hoodoo of previous Gold Cup winners who had then lost. It was some performance, but to break that stat makes it even more impressive.

 

Grand Annual Chase – this race you need to look for horses that finished in the first three LTO, are near the head of the betting, aged 9 or younger and carrying 10st 11lb or less. Using these three key filters we were left with three trends’ candidates – Pasco, Oh Crick and Clew Bay Cove. The latter had a slight edge trends wise as he was Irish trained (another positive), but it was Oh Crick that won at 7/1. Still an excellent result for the trends.

 

CONCLUSION – all in all, the trends have once again proved to be a massive pointer this season in the long established races at the festival.