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HORSE OWNERS STATS
When analyzing races what do we as punters look for? Recent form, career form, betting forecast / Betfair price, trainer, jockey, draw, fitness, weight carried if a handicap, etc, etc. However, how many of us take careful note of the owner? Very few I would imagine and I must admit it is nothing something I have taken enough notice of in the past. However, I am glad to say I am starting to take more note.
Owner stats could be an area to exploit in the near future as every other type of racing stat seems easily available in the public domain. However, although owner stats can be found / generated, it takes a bit of searching followed by plenty of time and effort.
This article looks at four of the most successful owners in terms of prize money and strike rate. The owners are Hamdan Al Maktoum, the Niarchos Family, Jaber Abdullah and Khalid Abdulla. I expect some readers are wondering why I have not included Godolphin – however all Godolphin runners in this country have been trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and his statistics are freely available and have been scrutinized in some depth by many sources; including myself.
This article covers all turf racing on these shores from July 1998 to
Hamdan Al Maktoum – known for having great horses in the past such as Nashwan and Dayjur. His record over the period of study is impressive:
Considering the number of runners, a strike rate of better than 1 win in 6 is good. It should be noted that 2008 has been one of his poorer years, but I am sure this is simply a blip.
There are some profitable areas to note – for example, he rarely keeps horses aged 6 or older in training, but those he does have an impressive strike rate of 30% (19 wins from 63). Hamdan Al Maktoum has a good record at many of the Northern / Scottish tracks as this table shows:
The Musselburgh stats may not look that special, but he has had a further 8 horses placed (hence 13 out of the 16 runners have won or been placed).
Another interesting point to note is that horses that have been off the track for more than 8 weeks have almost broken even thanks to 179 wins from 954 runners (SR 18.8%) for a loss of just £11.37 (ROI -1.2%). Clearly as an owner, he expects his horses to be fit and ready to do themselves justice after a break. One trainer that has done particularly well is Willie Haggas with his overall record reading 36 wins from 143 runners (SR 25.2%) for a profit of £38.35 (ROI +26.8%).
Owners often stick to tried and trusted methods with their 2yos.Hamdan Al Maktoumhas a strike rate of around 13% in 2yo maidens with horses making their debut. There are some interesting stats to note from these debutants. For example, at Goodwood these 2yos have a very poor record 0 wins from 37 (SR 3.1%). Conversely Ascot has seen 5 winners from 19 runners (SR 29.4%).
One final negative point worth noting is that his 2yo debutants seem to struggle on soft or heavy ground – just 5 wins from 74 (SR 6.8%) for a loss of £40.00 (ROI -54.1%). This may be something to do with the breeding as he has a poor record on good to soft ground also.
A final positive to note is that trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a good record with 2yo debutants for Hamdan Al Maktoum thanks to 12 wins from 36 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £27.90 (ROI +77.5%). This is interesting as Stoute’s overall strike rate for 2yo debutants is much lower at around 13%.
The Niarchos Family – the majority of their runners are housed at either Henry Cecil or Sir Michael Stoute. His overall record during the period of study reads thus:
Of the two main trainers, Henry Cecil has proved to be the profitable one with 36 wins from 149 (SR 24.2%) for a profit of £44.79 (ROI +30.1%). Sir Michael Stoute has a similar strike rate (23.4%) thanks to 25 winners from 107 but backing all his runners would have produced a loss of £20.72 (ROI -19.4%).
There are several profitable angles for this owner as the following table shows:
Definitely two jockeys to be aware of, although Durcan seems to be the one in favour at present. The upped in trip stat is interesting – it is difficult to know whether the owner or the trainer is the most responsible for this improved stat.
Jaber Abdullah – has a large percentage of runners with Mick Channon – about 80% of them. Jaber Abdullah had a profitable 2007 thanks to 23 wins from 158 (SR 14.6%) for a profit of £60.35 (ROI +38.2%), while his longer term record reads thus:
Here is another owner who has a good record up North as the table indicates:
He has profitable records at other tracks also including Ascot, Newmarket, Sandown and Yarmouth. However, he has a dreadful record at Salisbury with just 3 winners from 44 (SR 6.8%) for a loss of £37.51 (ROI -85.2%).
Jaber Abdullah’s runners also merit considerable respect in Group races. His record in such contests is impressive with 17 wins from 81 runners (SR 21%) for a profit of £93.48 (ROI +115.4%). It should be noted his record is best in Group 2 and 3 races. At the other end of the class spectrum he rarely has runners in class 6 or lower but when he does they have performed well with 10 wins from 35 (SR 28.6%) for a profit of £23.79 (ROI +68%).
Next area worth noting is that his runners seem to prefer a firmer surface as the table below indicates.
Jockey bookings can be significant – for example Joe Fanning is an impressive 9 wins from 36 (SR 25%) for a profit of £21.38 (ROI +59.4%). However, Sam Hitchcott with 1 win from 26 looks worth avoiding. Finally one negative to note is horses making their debut – 13 wins from 146 (SR 8.9%) for a loss of £87.44 (ROI -59.9%). It seems that Abdullah is keen for most of his horses to have an educational first run.
Khalid Abdulla – his interest in racing stems back to the 1960s and he has been a successful owner and breeder for around 40 years now. He owned such greats as Dancing Brave and 2001 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Banks Hill. His record since 1998 reads:
A highly impressive set of figures – close to a break-even situation on all 2965 runners! Not surprisingly there are some profitable angles worth noting. In terms of courses there are several where his strike rate exceeds 30% - Beverley, Redcar, Thirsk, Ripon, Catterick, Newcastle and Yarmouth. He also has good records at Pontefract with 16 wins from 55 (SR 29.1%) for a profit of £16.64 (ROI +30.3%) and Lingfield with 20 wins from 70 (SR 28.6%) for a profit of £29.60 (ROI +42.3%). It should also be noted that he has relatively poor course stats at three grade 1 tracks as the table illustrates:
In terms of trainers two stand out:
Meanwhile one jockey has a brilliant record – Jimmy Fortune has won 34 races from 106 rides (SR 32.1%) for a profit of £84.38 (ROI + 79.6%).
It is interesting to note that any geldings do well – clearly not many are kept in training due to being no use for stud purposes, but they have produced a profit of 31%. Finally horses making their racecourse debut do particularly well with a near 18% strike rate for a small profit, while horses off the track for more than 8 weeks have scored 23% for a profit of £98.48 (ROI +17.3%).
Certainly several stats to get your teeth into and hopefully this article will give you some useful pointers for the rest of this season and the future.
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