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Hayley Turner : An Analysis


Hayley Turner – An Analysis

 

It may surprise some of you but Haley Turner has been riding winners for 10 years – her first being on June 4th 2000 on a horse called Generate. She has gained plaudits from many different people in racing for her riding, so I thought I would look into her record in more detail. The data has been taken from January 1st 2006 to August 7th 2010.

From a personal standpoint I rate Turner as above average in terms of jockeyship – I produce my own personal jockey ratings and she lies =85th of the 215 jockeys rated. To put this into some perspective, the current favourite for the jockey’s championship Paul Hanagan is also =85th in my list!

Let us look at her overall record to begin with:

Overall record

Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI %
297 3440 8.6 -£1140.06 -33.1

 

I must admit to be a little disappointed – the strike rate is around what I would have expected but losses of 33 pence in the £ is not great. Having said that I have looked in more detail at her performances by analysing her win and placed record. With horses priced 10/1 or shorter her win & placed strike rate is around 1.5% above the jockey average. Hence my guess is that she may be a little weak in the finish, but essentially is a decent jockey who will give her mounts more good rides than bad ones.

Let us break the data down by year, remembering that we are only into early August (as I write) in 2010:

Year

Year Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI %
2006 36 674 5.3 -£326.35 -48.4
2007 56 755 7.4 -£247.60 -32.8
2008 100 989 10.1 -£297.60 -30.1
2009 60 545 11.0 -£101.49 -18.6
2010 45 477 9.4 -£167.02 -35.0

 

2008 was a real breakthrough year, but she injured for a good part of 2009 and looking at the figures, it may be that she has not been quite the same since. However, the data is quite limited for such an assumption but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Market Rank

Market Rank Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI %
Favourite 82 315 26.0 -£56.55 -18.0
2nd favourite 55 282 19.5 -£41.76 -14.8
3rd favourite 44 377 11.7 -£74.25 -19.7
4th in betting 26 366 7.1 -£151.00 -41.3
5th in betting 34 346 9.8 +£14.00 +4.1
6th in betting 17 325 5.2 -£128.50 -39.5
7th in betting 18 325 5.5 -£56.00 -17.2
8th or bigger in betting 21 1104 1.9 -£646.00 -58.5

 

In terms of the market, her record on favourites / top 3 in the betting is only modest, and coupled with her poor record on outsiders means that there are no clear market angles to use profitably.

Courses

Certain jockeys definitely ride some courses better than others so let us see if Turner has any “favourites”:

Course Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI %
Ascot 7 84 8.3 -£6.75 -8.0
Ayr 3 18 16.7 +£23.00 +127.8
Bath 10 77 13.0 +£50.00 +64.9
Beverley 2 29 6.9 -£17.75 -61.2
Brighton 7 84 8.3 -£50.44 -60.1
Catterick 0 11 0.0 -£11.00 -100.0
Chepstow 1 35 2.9 -£9.00 -25.7
Chester 3 18 16.7 +£4.48 +24.9
Doncaster 5 46 10.9 -£2.63 -5.7
Epsom 5 25 20.0 +£19.00 +76.0
Ffos Las 0 5 0.0 -£5.00 -100.0
Folkestone 3 64 4.7 -£46.00 -71.9
Goodwood 2 63 3.2 -£43.50 -69.1
Great Leighs 5 75 6.7 -£51.20 -68.3
Hamilton 2 12 16.7 -£7.13 -59.4
Haydock 3 36 8.3 -£20.00 -55.6
Kempton aw 34 443 7.7 -£153.07 -34.6
Leicester 9 103 8.7 -£32.15 -31.2
Lingfield aw 50 511 9.8 -£154.22 -30.2
Lingfield turf 3 41 7.3 -£27.50 -67.1
Musselburgh 1 2 50.0 +£7.00 +350.0
Newbury 6 75 8.0 +£15.50 +20.7
Newcastle 2 14 14.3 -£0.50 -3.6
Newmarket 12 178 6.7 -£53.38 -30.0
Nottingham 7 108 6.5 -£55.00 -50.9
Pontefract 2 29 6.9 -£5.00 -17.2
Redcar 2 22 9.1 -£11.00 -50.0
Ripon 1 20 5.0 -£18.47 -92.3
Salisbury 4 43 9.3 -£20.75 -48.3
Sandown 0 36 0.0 -£36.00 -100.0
Southwell aw 33 312 10.6 -£64.07 -20.5
Thirsk 4 21 19.1 -£1.76 -8.4
Warwick 1 41 2.4 -£34.00 -82.9
Windsor 2 71 2.8 -£60.63 -85.4
Wolverhampton aw 47 509 9.2 -£194.00 -38.1
Yarmouth 17 166 10.2 -£67.16 -40.5
York 2 13 15.4 +£0.00 +0.0

 

No courses really stand out from a positive perspective. Looking at courses where she seems to have struggled, Sandown’s 0 from 36 looks at first site a course to avoid. However, this is where digging deeper comes in – at Sandown, Turner has only ridden two horses that have been in the top 3 of the betting. Indeed only 8 of her 36 rides have been priced under 10/1 and to be fair she has place on half of them.

Distance

Variable Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI %
5-6f 79 998 7.9 -£375.63 -37.6
7f-1m 116 1258 9.2 -£291.88 -23.2
1m1f-1m2f 57 616 9.3 -£218.54 -35.5
1m3f+ 45 568 7.9 -£254.01 -44.7

 

In terms of distance she seems to struggle a little more that longer distances – the loss of nearly 45 pence in the £ with runners at 1m3f+ looks significant. Indeed looking at her record with favourites in these longer distance contests show a poor strike rate of 19.3% (11 winners from 57) with losses of over 48 pence in the £. Considering favourites generally lose about 8 pence in the £ we can see why I have come to that conclusion.

Trainers

For trainers I have used 20 rides as the minimum otherwise the table would take up even more space on the page! The table is ordered by number of wins:

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI %
M L W Bell 79 650 12.2 -£160.47 -24.7
M D I Usher 15 240 6.3 -£125.44 -52.3
G A Butler 12 84 14.3 -£19.52 -23.2
R Hollinshead 12 68 17.7 +£13.33 +19.6
S Dow 10 47 21.3 +£57.70 +122.8
J R Best 9 79 11.4 +£25.00 +31.7
D R C Elsworth 8 45 17.8 -£3.45 -7.7
S A Callaghan 7 48 14.6 -£22.63 -47.1
Miss Gay Kelleway 6 48 12.5 -£13.13 -27.3
E A L Dunlop 6 42 14.3 +£0.68 +1.6
M P Tregoning 6 20 30.0 +£31.20 +156.0
D Morris 5 52 9.6 -£18.67 -35.9
D K Ivory 5 33 15.2 +£34.50 +104.6
D M Simcock 5 22 22.7 +£1.13 +5.1
C E Brittain 4 90 4.4 -£63.90 -71.0
W R Muir 4 60 6.7 -£19.50 -32.5
D Haydn Jones 4 44 9.1 -£8.25 -18.8
A W Carroll 4 42 9.5 -£6.75 -16.1
C R Dore 4 31 12.9 -£5.50 -17.7
R M Whitaker 4 31 12.9 -£2.50 -8.1
J R Fanshawe 4 29 13.8 +£3.50 +12.1
P S McEntee 3 47 6.4 -£18.50 -39.4
B G Powell 2 46 4.4 -£38.33 -83.3
Andrew Turnell 2 33 6.1 -£3.00 -9.1
Stef Liddiard 2 29 6.9 -£4.00 -13.8
J R Boyle 2 22 9.1 +£11.00 +50.0
J G Given 2 20 10.0 -£1.00 -5.0
Mrs C A Dunnett 1 59 1.7 -£48.00 -81.4
J M P Eustace 1 39 2.6 -£31.00 -79.5
Miss Amy Weaver 1 28 3.6 -£13.00 -46.4
J W Hills 1 27 3.7 -£22.50 -83.3
D Shaw 1 24 4.2 -£9.00 -37.5
W Jarvis 1 20 5.0 -£5.00 -25.0
Jennie Candlish 0 23 0.0 -£23.00 -100.0
P Howling 0 20 0.0 -£20.00 -100.0

 

Turner rides predominantly for Michael Bell and has a decent strike rate of over 12% for the stable. Her record for the Bell stable catches the eye at Yarmouth – 11 wins from 48 (SR 22.9%) for a profit of £19.27 (ROI +40.1%). She is also 3 wins, 3 placed from just 7 rides for Bell at Chester.

Race type

Let us look at race type next:

Race type Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI %
Claimers 14 173 8.1 -£109.20 -63.1
Group races 1 32 3.1 -£27.50 -85.9
Handicaps 182 2106 8.6 -£522.33 -24.8
Listed races 5 62 8.1 -£27.50 -44.4
Maidens 58 769 7.5 -£456.41 -59.4
Sellers 18 146 12.3 -£34.33 -23.5

 

Turner has a poor overall record in maidens, but you really need to split Turner’s record up in such races into fancied runners and unfancied runners. Let us compare the split when we look at her rides that started in the top 3 of the betting in maidens and those that were 4th or bigger in the betting market:

Market pos. in maidens Wins Runs Strike Rate % Profit ROI %
Top 3 of the betting 48 205 23.4 -£25.41 -12.4
4th or bigger in betting 10 550 1.8 -£417.00 -75.8

 

Quite a difference! The moral is simple – avoid any ride in a maiden where the horse is 4th or bigger in the betting market!

Her best record has been in selling races and if you focus on her rides in sellers priced in single figures, you would have hit 17 winners from 70 (SR 24.3%) for a tidy profit of £26.68 (ROI +38.1%).

Clearly the stats show that making profits with Hayley Turner on board is something that is quite difficult to do. However, despite the modest overall findings I still feel that she is an above average jockey and hence it is not a negative when she is riding a horse you have backed.








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