Hayley Turner – An Analysis

 

It may surprise some of you but Haley Turner has been riding winners for 10 years – her first being on June 4th 2000 on a horse called Generate. She has gained plaudits from many different people in racing for her riding, so I thought I would look into her record in more detail. The data has been taken from January 1st 2006 to August 7th 2010.

From a personal standpoint I rate Turner as above average in terms of jockeyship – I produce my own personal jockey ratings and she lies =85th of the 215 jockeys rated. To put this into some perspective, the current favourite for the jockey’s championship Paul Hanagan is also =85th in my list!

Let us look at her overall record to begin with:

Overall record

Wins	Runs	Strike Rate %	Profit	ROI %
297	3440	8.6	-£1140.06	-33.1

 

I must admit to be a little disappointed – the strike rate is around what I would have expected but losses of 33 pence in the £ is not great. Having said that I have looked in more detail at her performances by analysing her win and placed record. With horses priced 10/1 or shorter her win & placed strike rate is around 1.5% above the jockey average. Hence my guess is that she may be a little weak in the finish, but essentially is a decent jockey who will give her mounts more good rides than bad ones.

Let us break the data down by year, remembering that we are only into early August (as I write) in 2010:

Year

Year	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate %	Profit	ROI %
2006	36	674	5.3	-£326.35	-48.4
2007	56	755	7.4	-£247.60	-32.8
2008	100	989	10.1	-£297.60	-30.1
2009	60	545	11.0	-£101.49	-18.6
2010	45	477	9.4	-£167.02	-35.0

 

2008 was a real breakthrough year, but she injured for a good part of 2009 and looking at the figures, it may be that she has not been quite the same since. However, the data is quite limited for such an assumption but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Market Rank

Market Rank	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate %	Profit	ROI %
Favourite	82	315	26.0	-£56.55	-18.0
2nd favourite	55	282	19.5	-£41.76	-14.8
3rd favourite	44	377	11.7	-£74.25	-19.7
4th in betting	26	366	7.1	-£151.00	-41.3
5th in betting	34	346	9.8	+£14.00	+4.1
6th in betting	17	325	5.2	-£128.50	-39.5
7th in betting	18	325	5.5	-£56.00	-17.2
8th or bigger in betting	21	1104	1.9	-£646.00	-58.5

 

In terms of the market, her record on favourites / top 3 in the betting is only modest, and coupled with her poor record on outsiders means that there are no clear market angles to use profitably.

Courses

Certain jockeys definitely ride some courses better than others so let us see if Turner has any “favourites”:

Course	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate %	Profit	ROI %
Ascot	7	84	8.3	-£6.75	-8.0
Ayr	3	18	16.7	+£23.00	+127.8
Bath	10	77	13.0	+£50.00	+64.9
Beverley	2	29	6.9	-£17.75	-61.2
Brighton	7	84	8.3	-£50.44	-60.1
Catterick	0	11	0.0	-£11.00	-100.0
Chepstow	1	35	2.9	-£9.00	-25.7
Chester	3	18	16.7	+£4.48	+24.9
Doncaster	5	46	10.9	-£2.63	-5.7
Epsom	5	25	20.0	+£19.00	+76.0
Ffos Las	0	5	0.0	-£5.00	-100.0
Folkestone	3	64	4.7	-£46.00	-71.9
Goodwood	2	63	3.2	-£43.50	-69.1
Great Leighs	5	75	6.7	-£51.20	-68.3
Hamilton	2	12	16.7	-£7.13	-59.4
Haydock	3	36	8.3	-£20.00	-55.6
Kempton aw	34	443	7.7	-£153.07	-34.6
Leicester	9	103	8.7	-£32.15	-31.2
Lingfield aw	50	511	9.8	-£154.22	-30.2
Lingfield turf	3	41	7.3	-£27.50	-67.1
Musselburgh	1	2	50.0	+£7.00	+350.0
Newbury	6	75	8.0	+£15.50	+20.7
Newcastle	2	14	14.3	-£0.50	-3.6
Newmarket	12	178	6.7	-£53.38	-30.0
Nottingham	7	108	6.5	-£55.00	-50.9
Pontefract	2	29	6.9	-£5.00	-17.2
Redcar	2	22	9.1	-£11.00	-50.0
Ripon	1	20	5.0	-£18.47	-92.3
Salisbury	4	43	9.3	-£20.75	-48.3
Sandown	0	36	0.0	-£36.00	-100.0
Southwell aw	33	312	10.6	-£64.07	-20.5
Thirsk	4	21	19.1	-£1.76	-8.4
Warwick	1	41	2.4	-£34.00	-82.9
Windsor	2	71	2.8	-£60.63	-85.4
Wolverhampton aw	47	509	9.2	-£194.00	-38.1
Yarmouth	17	166	10.2	-£67.16	-40.5
York	2	13	15.4	+£0.00	+0.0

 

No courses really stand out from a positive perspective. Looking at courses where she seems to have struggled, Sandown’s 0 from 36 looks at first site a course to avoid. However, this is where digging deeper comes in – at Sandown, Turner has only ridden two horses that have been in the top 3 of the betting. Indeed only 8 of her 36 rides have been priced under 10/1 and to be fair she has place on half of them.

Distance

Variable	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate %	Profit	ROI %
5-6f	79	998	7.9	-£375.63	-37.6
7f-1m	116	1258	9.2	-£291.88	-23.2
1m1f-1m2f	57	616	9.3	-£218.54	-35.5
1m3f+	45	568	7.9	-£254.01	-44.7

 

In terms of distance she seems to struggle a little more that longer distances – the loss of nearly 45 pence in the £ with runners at 1m3f+ looks significant. Indeed looking at her record with favourites in these longer distance contests show a poor strike rate of 19.3% (11 winners from 57) with losses of over 48 pence in the £. Considering favourites generally lose about 8 pence in the £ we can see why I have come to that conclusion.

Trainers

For trainers I have used 20 rides as the minimum otherwise the table would take up even more space on the page! The table is ordered by number of wins:

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate %	Profit	ROI %
M L W Bell	79	650	12.2	-£160.47	-24.7
M D I Usher	15	240	6.3	-£125.44	-52.3
G A Butler	12	84	14.3	-£19.52	-23.2
R Hollinshead	12	68	17.7	+£13.33	+19.6
S Dow	10	47	21.3	+£57.70	+122.8
J R Best	9	79	11.4	+£25.00	+31.7
D R C Elsworth	8	45	17.8	-£3.45	-7.7
S A Callaghan	7	48	14.6	-£22.63	-47.1
Miss Gay Kelleway	6	48	12.5	-£13.13	-27.3
E A L Dunlop	6	42	14.3	+£0.68	+1.6
M P Tregoning	6	20	30.0	+£31.20	+156.0
D Morris	5	52	9.6	-£18.67	-35.9
D K Ivory	5	33	15.2	+£34.50	+104.6
D M Simcock	5	22	22.7	+£1.13	+5.1
C E Brittain	4	90	4.4	-£63.90	-71.0
W R Muir	4	60	6.7	-£19.50	-32.5
D Haydn Jones	4	44	9.1	-£8.25	-18.8
A W Carroll	4	42	9.5	-£6.75	-16.1
C R Dore	4	31	12.9	-£5.50	-17.7
R M Whitaker	4	31	12.9	-£2.50	-8.1
J R Fanshawe	4	29	13.8	+£3.50	+12.1
P S McEntee	3	47	6.4	-£18.50	-39.4
B G Powell	2	46	4.4	-£38.33	-83.3
Andrew Turnell	2	33	6.1	-£3.00	-9.1
Stef Liddiard	2	29	6.9	-£4.00	-13.8
J R Boyle	2	22	9.1	+£11.00	+50.0
J G Given	2	20	10.0	-£1.00	-5.0
Mrs C A Dunnett	1	59	1.7	-£48.00	-81.4
J M P Eustace	1	39	2.6	-£31.00	-79.5
Miss Amy Weaver	1	28	3.6	-£13.00	-46.4
J W Hills	1	27	3.7	-£22.50	-83.3
D Shaw	1	24	4.2	-£9.00	-37.5
W Jarvis	1	20	5.0	-£5.00	-25.0
Jennie Candlish	0	23	0.0	-£23.00	-100.0
P Howling	0	20	0.0	-£20.00	-100.0

 

Turner rides predominantly for Michael Bell and has a decent strike rate of over 12% for the stable. Her record for the Bell stable catches the eye at Yarmouth – 11 wins from 48 (SR 22.9%) for a profit of £19.27 (ROI +40.1%). She is also 3 wins, 3 placed from just 7 rides for Bell at Chester.

Race type

Let us look at race type next:

Race type	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate %	Profit	ROI %
Claimers	14	173	8.1	-£109.20	-63.1
Group races	1	32	3.1	-£27.50	-85.9
Handicaps	182	2106	8.6	-£522.33	-24.8
Listed races	5	62	8.1	-£27.50	-44.4
Maidens	58	769	7.5	-£456.41	-59.4
Sellers	18	146	12.3	-£34.33	-23.5

 

Turner has a poor overall record in maidens, but you really need to split Turner’s record up in such races into fancied runners and unfancied runners. Let us compare the split when we look at her rides that started in the top 3 of the betting in maidens and those that were 4th or bigger in the betting market:

Market pos. in maidens	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate %	Profit	ROI %
Top 3 of the betting	48	205	23.4	-£25.41	-12.4
4th or bigger in betting	10	550	1.8	-£417.00	-75.8

 

Quite a difference! The moral is simple – avoid any ride in a maiden where the horse is 4th or bigger in the betting market!

Her best record has been in selling races and if you focus on her rides in sellers priced in single figures, you would have hit 17 winners from 70 (SR 24.3%) for a tidy profit of £26.68 (ROI +38.1%).

Clearly the stats show that making profits with Hayley Turner on board is something that is quite difficult to do. However, despite the modest overall findings I still feel that she is an above average jockey and hence it is not a negative when she is riding a horse you have backed.