Articles >> horse-racing >>

Handicap Debutants Part 2


Handicap Debutants Part 2

This is the second of two articles based on flat horses making their handicap debuts. If you missed it Part 1 is viewable at http://www.punterprofits.com/horse-racing/handicap_debutants_part_1.php

As noted in the first piece, I am writing these articles in the middle of October 2011 and I have gone back to the start of 2005 in terms of the data I am using. Profits and losses are shown to £1 level win stakes at SP; SR% stands for strike rate percentage; ROI% stands for return on investment percentage.

Firstly let me recap the overall performances of all horses making their handicap debuts:

Runs Wins SR% Profit/loss ROI%
22141 2107 9.5 -£5282.52 -23.9

 

In the first article, we broke down this data into eight areas – age, sex of horse, price, market position, official ratings, weight rank, number of horse career wins and position LTO. Of course, we can improve matters considerably by combining certain aspects of those eight factors – however, this is basically taking ‘back-fitting’ to a new level. Hence, I have decided to combine just three key factors in an attempt to improve matters. These are:

1. Sex of horse – Male

2. Price – 10/1 or shorter

3. LTO finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd

Combining these three rules to handicap debutants we get the following results:

Runs Wins SR% Profit/loss ROI%
3738 755 20.2 -£37.36 -1.0

 

A loss of just 1p in the £ at SP is a very positive result. From here I have decided to do a bit more digger to see if we can improve upon the results. Firstly, I have looked at the breakdown of results by month:

Month Runs Wins SR% Profit/loss ROI%
January 142 38 26.8 -£0.73 -0.5
February 118 37 31.4 +£26.96 +22.8
March 161 45 28.0 +£36.23 +22.5
April 477 108 22.6 +£56.80 +11.9
May 535 109 20.4 +£7.15 +1.3
June 394 61 15.5 -£46.11 -11.7
July 518 105 20.3 -£48.28 -9.3
August 531 91 17.1 -£46.78 -8.8
September 411 77 18.7 -£30.75 -7.5
October 253 42 16.6 -£11.55 -4.6
November 112 23 20.5 +£15.76 +14.1
December 86 19 22.1 +£3.94 +4.6

 

These results are quite fascinating. It seems that the winter months coupled with early spring are the time when these runners perform best. Indeed, it is worth splitting the results by turf and all weather races as one would suspect the all weather results will show a profit:

Race type Runs Wins SR% Profit/loss ROI%
All Weather 1075 264 24.6 +£115.49 +10.7
Flat 2663 491 18.4 -£152.85 -5.7

 

Thus, male handicap debutants on the all weather, that finished in the first three LTO and are priced 10/1 or shorter look a group worth following.

With 1075 qualifiers I feel it is worth looking at their results at each of the four all weather courses (I have not included any previous qualifiers that ran at Great Leighs):

Course Runs Wins SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Kempton 338 76 22.5 +£4.33 +1.3
Lingfield 310 86 27.7 +£111.29 +35.9
Southwell 136 34 25.0 +£2.73 +2.0
Wolverhampton 270 66 24.4 +£12.76 +4.7

 

A profit at all four courses, but Lingfield has produced by far the best figures both in terms of strike rate and returns.

Finally on this all weather theme, if we then restrict these 1075 qualifiers to only those that ran on the all weather LTO, then the overall results improve to 213 wins from 791 runners (SR 26.9%) for a profit of £114.59 (ROI +14.5%).

I think the original three rule idea is worth further investigation, but for the rest of this article, I am going to look at the records of individual trainers when saddling a handicap debutant. I am restricting the search to trainers that have saddled at least 50 runners, but despite this being a long list, I have included all of them:

Trainer Runs Wins SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Saeed Bin Suroor 202 49 24.3 +£13.41 +6.6
Sir Mark Prescott 189 42 22.2 +£13.58 +7.2
J Noseda 179 39 21.8 -£14.31 -8.0
Sir Michael Stoute 309 60 19.4 -£3.85 -1.2
W Haggas 249 47 18.9 +£43.19 +17.3
L Cumani 222 41 18.5 -£9.37 -4.2
C Wall 113 19 16.8 +£63.00 +55.8
P Chapple-Hyam 149 25 16.8 +£5.36 +3.6
H Morrison 191 32 16.8 +£11.88 +6.2
H Cecil 147 24 16.3 -£35.66 -24.3
E McMahon 94 15 16.0 -£4.80 -5.1
M Johnston 703 111 15.8 -£148.56 -21.1
J Gosden 326 50 15.3 -£42.74 -13.1
D Elsworth 152 23 15.1 +£31.38 +20.6
M Bell 252 37 14.7 -£12.99 -5.2
P Makin 82 12 14.6 £28.04 34.2
Jane Chapple-Hyam 70 10 14.3 -£3.75 -5.4
P Eddery 70 10 14.3 +£7.86 +11.2
Rae Guest 70 10 14.3 +£28.75 +41.1
E Dunlop 275 39 14.2 -£74.47 -27.1
N Callaghan 57 8 14.0 -£10.75 -18.9
M Botti 130 18 13.8 -£26.62 -20.5
Al Zarooni Mahmood 58 8 13.8 -£10.92 -18.8
J Fanshawe 170 23 13.5 -£41.24 -24.3
S Kirk 164 22 13.4 +£47.00 +28.7
R Charlton 194 25 12.9 -£67.52 -34.8
D Simcock 126 16 12.7 +£8.25 +6.5
Mrs A Perrett 184 22 12.0 +£12.91 +7.0
W Brisbourne 67 8 11.9 +£29.00 +43.3
R Beckett 219 26 11.9 -£43.86 -20.0
R Hannon 643 76 11.8 -£79.29 -12.3
W Jarvis 104 12 11.5 -£16.66 -16.0
J Dunlop 252 29 11.5 -£3.50 -1.4
P Cole 200 23 11.5 +£71.08 +35.5
D Carroll 70 8 11.4 +£30.50 +43.6
A Balding 255 29 11.4 -£23.33 -9.1
C Cox 146 16 11.0 -£46.49 -31.8
M Dods 110 12 10.9 -£12.00 -10.9
J Toller 55 6 10.9 +£31.00 +56.4
J Osborne 168 18 10.7 -£13.54 -8.1
J R Best 153 16 10.5 +£9.36 +6.1
K Ryan 303 31 10.2 -£75.58 -24.9
D Nicholls 118 12 10.2 -£33.77 -28.6
H Candy 121 12 9.9 -£42.17 -34.9
P DArcy 51 5 9.8 +£12.37 +24.3
P Haslam 82 8 9.8 +£76.88 +93.8
E Vaughan 72 7 9.7 -£19.25 -26.7
A Bailey 62 6 9.7 -£18.34 -29.6
R Fahey 315 30 9.5 -£108.76 -34.5
B Meehan 338 32 9.5 -£113.04 -33.4
E Alston 55 5 9.1 -£19.67 -35.8
C Brittain 198 18 9.1 -£41.75 -21.1
J Weymes 55 5 9.1 £19.00 34.5
J J Quinn 89 8 9.0 -£1.50 -1.7
B Powell 56 5 8.9 -£0.17 -0.3
B Smart 191 17 8.9 -£34.17 -17.9
M Tregoning 147 13 8.8 -£74.94 -51.0
G Butler 102 9 8.8 -£38.75 -38.0
W Muir 148 13 8.8 -£7.50 -5.1
W Swinburn 205 18 8.8 -£86.79 -42.3
S Williams 114 10 8.8 -£52.27 -45.9
I Wood 58 5 8.6 -£6.50 -11.2
A McCabe 74 6 8.1 -£33.00 -44.6
J Hills 151 12 7.9 -£42.17 -27.9
J Bethell 52 4 7.7 +£26.25 +50.5
E O’Neill 79 6 7.6 -£28.25 -35.8
M Channon 435 33 7.6 -£136.87 -31.5
J Given 145 11 7.6 -£37.62 -25.9
T Dascombe 120 9 7.5 -£55.29 -46.1
P Blockley 54 4 7.4 +£6.75 +12.5
D Ivory 68 5 7.4 +£19.50 +28.7
M Usher 68 5 7.4 -£10.00 -14.7
T Barron 137 10 7.3 -£63.71 -46.5
Miss G Kelleway 55 4 7.3 -£32.00 -58.2
N Littmoden 69 5 7.2 -£30.50 -44.2
T Easterby 280 20 7.1 -£111.75 -39.9
Eve Johnson Houghton 70 5 7.1 -£35.67 -51.0
J Moore 141 10 7.1 -£51.40 -36.5
H Dunlop 71 5 7.0 +£9.50 +13.4
T Tate 71 5 7.0 +£22.75 +32.0
A King 57 4 7.0 -£17.50 -30.7
G L Moore 143 10 7.0 -£88.54 -61.9
B Millman 130 9 6.9 -£35.50 -27.3
J Boyle 87 6 6.9 -£48.57 -55.8
J Spearing 59 4 6.8 -£25.75 -43.6
M Wallace 61 4 6.6 -£39.50 -64.8
G Swinbank 138 9 6.5 -£82.25 -59.6
P Evans 173 11 6.4 -£60.50 -35.0
W Musson 65 4 6.2 -£25.67 -39.5
M Brittain 66 4 6.1 +£25.50 +38.6
D Shaw 67 4 6.0 -£34.12 -50.9
Miss J Feilden 51 3 5.9 -£25.50 -50.0
W Knight 85 5 5.9 -£42.75 -50.3
Mrs A Duffield 122 7 5.7 -£54.67 -44.8
M Tompkins 154 8 5.2 -£90.00 -58.4
I Semple 58 3 5.2 -£37.50 -64.7
P Midgley 81 4 4.9 -£41.50 -51.2
M Blanshard 61 3 4.9 -£18.00 -29.5
J Eustace 61 3 4.9 -£26.00 -42.6
R C Guest 61 3 4.9 -£30.00 -49.2
J Jenkins 63 3 4.8 -£38.92 -61.8
A Berry 85 4 4.7 -£15.00 -17.6
B Palling 70 3 4.3 -£35.00 -50.0
A Haynes 72 3 4.2 -£54.77 -76.1
M Easterby 123 5 4.1 -£66.00 -53.7
A Jarvis 99 4 4.0 -£52.00 -52.5
P Winkworth 75 3 4.0 -£29.00 -38.7
M Quinlan 85 3 3.5 -£57.00 -67.1
P Grayson 59 2 3.4 -£31.00 -52.5
R Hollinshead 91 2 2.2 -£76.50 -84.1
S Dow 50 1 2.0 -£41.00 -82.0
W Turner 55 1 1.8 -£52.12 -94.8
J Gask 56 1 1.8 -£47.00 -83.9
B Ellison 57 1 1.8 -£52.00 -91.2
N Tinkler 58 1 1.7 -£41.00 -70.7
R Harris 62 1 1.6 -£59.25 -95.6
J Portman 78 1 1.3 -£70.50 -90.4
A Carroll 59 0 0.0 -£59.00 -100.0

 

Quite a wide range in fortunes, but it makes sense to concentrate on those trainers with the best strike rates to see if we can find any particularly positive angles. Let us look at Saeed Bin Suroor first and some additional positives:

  • Horses priced between 5/2 and 6/1 have produced 23 winners from 78 (SR 29.5%) for a profit of £37.50 (ROI +48.1%);
  • Horses racing at 1 mile or further have produced 40 winners from 145 (SR 27.6%) for a profit of £41.42 (ROI +28.6%);
  • Horses racing in class 4 or lower have secured 25 wins from 81 (SR 30.9%) for a profit of £26.30 (ROI +32.5%);
  • LTO winners on their handicap debut have produced 40 winners from 133 (SR 30.1%) for a profit of £23.28 (ROI +17.5%);
  • Horses running on the all weather have provided 13 wins from 39 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £16.15 (ROI +41.4%).

 

Onto Sir Mark Prescott next:

  • Horses priced 9/2 or bigger have proved the best value thanks to 18 winners from 81 (SR 18.5%) for a profit of £34.50 (ROI +42.6%);
  • Horses racing on turf have provided 25 winners from 101 (SR 24.8%) for a profit of £23.16 (ROI +22.9%);
  • Horses racing over 1m 3f or more have produced 17 wins from 64 (SR 26.6%) for a profit of £30.33 (ROI +47.4%).

 

One other point worth noting with Prescott is that his 3yos have made a 14% profit, his 2yos an 18% loss.

Sir Michael Stoute has made a small overall loss, but he has saddled 60 winners so there is a good chance to find a positive slant or two. Here is what I found:

  • In class 5 or lower he had 16 winners from 41 (SR 39%) for a profit of £45.93 (ROI +112.0%);
  • His 2yo handicap debutants are rare but 6, won and a further 6 placed from 25 (SR 24%) showing a profit of £10.00 (ROI +40%);
  • Horses that were still maidens provided 22 winners from 105 (SR 21%) for a profit of £15.45 (ROI +14.7%);
  • When having a runner in the top two of the weights Stoute’s runners produced 19 wins from 61 (SR 31.1%) for a healthy profit of £44.12 (ROI +72.3%).

 

The final trainer I want to focus on is Willie Haggas. Here are my findings:

  • In class 5 or lower he had 26 winners from 107 (SR 24.3%) for a profit of £51.14 (ROI +47.8%);
  • Horses racing on turf have provided 40 winners from 194 (SR 20.6%) for a profit of £69.96 (ROI +36.1%);
  • Horses that were still maidens provided 19 winners from 100 (SR 19%) for a profit of £82.32 (ROI +82.3%);
  • Runners from the top four of the weights have produced 31 wins from 122 (SR 25.4%) for a healthy profit of £65.12 (ROI +53.4%).

 

Despite handicap debutants generally being poor investments, it is clear there some filters improve results considerably, and there are profitable angles to be found. You just have to do a bit a of digging!

 

 








Free Registration
 
Systems
Free Horse Racing System
 
 
Racing Research
Racing Report Vault
 
Flat Racing Trainer Report
 
Horse Racing Research Articles
 
Bookmakers & Odds
Bookmakers and Free Bets
 
Odds Comparison
 
Top Link Partners


 

Copyright PunterProfits.com