Handicap Debutants Part 2
This is the second of two articles based on flat horses making their handicap debuts. If you missed it Part 1 is viewable at http://www.punterprofits.com/horse-racing/handicap_debutants_part_1.php
As noted in the first piece, I am writing these articles in the middle of October 2011 and I have gone back to the start of 2005 in terms of the data I am using. Profits and losses are shown to £1 level win stakes at SP; SR% stands for strike rate percentage; ROI% stands for return on investment percentage.
Firstly let me recap the overall performances of all horses making their handicap debuts:
| Runs |
Wins |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| 22141 |
2107 |
9.5 |
-£5282.52 |
-23.9 |
In the first article, we broke down this data into eight areas – age, sex of horse, price, market position, official ratings, weight rank, number of horse career wins and position LTO. Of course, we can improve matters considerably by combining certain aspects of those eight factors – however, this is basically taking ‘back-fitting’ to a new level. Hence, I have decided to combine just three key factors in an attempt to improve matters. These are:
1. Sex of horse – Male
2. Price – 10/1 or shorter
3. LTO finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd
Combining these three rules to handicap debutants we get the following results:
| Runs |
Wins |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| 3738 |
755 |
20.2 |
-£37.36 |
-1.0 |
A loss of just 1p in the £ at SP is a very positive result. From here I have decided to do a bit more digger to see if we can improve upon the results. Firstly, I have looked at the breakdown of results by month:
| Month |
Runs |
Wins |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| January |
142 |
38 |
26.8 |
-£0.73 |
-0.5 |
| February |
118 |
37 |
31.4 |
+£26.96 |
+22.8 |
| March |
161 |
45 |
28.0 |
+£36.23 |
+22.5 |
| April |
477 |
108 |
22.6 |
+£56.80 |
+11.9 |
| May |
535 |
109 |
20.4 |
+£7.15 |
+1.3 |
| June |
394 |
61 |
15.5 |
-£46.11 |
-11.7 |
| July |
518 |
105 |
20.3 |
-£48.28 |
-9.3 |
| August |
531 |
91 |
17.1 |
-£46.78 |
-8.8 |
| September |
411 |
77 |
18.7 |
-£30.75 |
-7.5 |
| October |
253 |
42 |
16.6 |
-£11.55 |
-4.6 |
| November |
112 |
23 |
20.5 |
+£15.76 |
+14.1 |
| December |
86 |
19 |
22.1 |
+£3.94 |
+4.6 |
These results are quite fascinating. It seems that the winter months coupled with early spring are the time when these runners perform best. Indeed, it is worth splitting the results by turf and all weather races as one would suspect the all weather results will show a profit:
| Race type |
Runs |
Wins |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| All Weather |
1075 |
264 |
24.6 |
+£115.49 |
+10.7 |
| Flat |
2663 |
491 |
18.4 |
-£152.85 |
-5.7 |
Thus, male handicap debutants on the all weather, that finished in the first three LTO and are priced 10/1 or shorter look a group worth following.
With 1075 qualifiers I feel it is worth looking at their results at each of the four all weather courses (I have not included any previous qualifiers that ran at Great Leighs):
| Course |
Runs |
Wins |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Kempton |
338 |
76 |
22.5 |
+£4.33 |
+1.3 |
| Lingfield |
310 |
86 |
27.7 |
+£111.29 |
+35.9 |
| Southwell |
136 |
34 |
25.0 |
+£2.73 |
+2.0 |
| Wolverhampton |
270 |
66 |
24.4 |
+£12.76 |
+4.7 |
A profit at all four courses, but Lingfield has produced by far the best figures both in terms of strike rate and returns.
Finally on this all weather theme, if we then restrict these 1075 qualifiers to only those that ran on the all weather LTO, then the overall results improve to 213 wins from 791 runners (SR 26.9%) for a profit of £114.59 (ROI +14.5%).
I think the original three rule idea is worth further investigation, but for the rest of this article, I am going to look at the records of individual trainers when saddling a handicap debutant. I am restricting the search to trainers that have saddled at least 50 runners, but despite this being a long list, I have included all of them:
| Trainer |
Runs |
Wins |
SR% |
Profit/loss |
ROI% |
| Saeed Bin Suroor |
202 |
49 |
24.3 |
+£13.41 |
+6.6 |
| Sir Mark Prescott |
189 |
42 |
22.2 |
+£13.58 |
+7.2 |
| J Noseda |
179 |
39 |
21.8 |
-£14.31 |
-8.0 |
| Sir Michael Stoute |
309 |
60 |
19.4 |
-£3.85 |
-1.2 |
| W Haggas |
249 |
47 |
18.9 |
+£43.19 |
+17.3 |
| L Cumani |
222 |
41 |
18.5 |
-£9.37 |
-4.2 |
| C Wall |
113 |
19 |
16.8 |
+£63.00 |
+55.8 |
| P Chapple-Hyam |
149 |
25 |
16.8 |
+£5.36 |
+3.6 |
| H Morrison |
191 |
32 |
16.8 |
+£11.88 |
+6.2 |
| H Cecil |
147 |
24 |
16.3 |
-£35.66 |
-24.3 |
| E McMahon |
94 |
15 |
16.0 |
-£4.80 |
-5.1 |
| M Johnston |
703 |
111 |
15.8 |
-£148.56 |
-21.1 |
| J Gosden |
326 |
50 |
15.3 |
-£42.74 |
-13.1 |
| D Elsworth |
152 |
23 |
15.1 |
+£31.38 |
+20.6 |
| M Bell |
252 |
37 |
14.7 |
-£12.99 |
-5.2 |
| P Makin |
82 |
12 |
14.6 |
£28.04 |
34.2 |
| Jane Chapple-Hyam |
70 |
10 |
14.3 |
-£3.75 |
-5.4 |
| P Eddery |
70 |
10 |
14.3 |
+£7.86 |
+11.2 |
| Rae Guest |
70 |
10 |
14.3 |
+£28.75 |
+41.1 |
| E Dunlop |
275 |
39 |
14.2 |
-£74.47 |
-27.1 |
| N Callaghan |
57 |
8 |
14.0 |
-£10.75 |
-18.9 |
| M Botti |
130 |
18 |
13.8 |
-£26.62 |
-20.5 |
| Al Zarooni Mahmood |
58 |
8 |
13.8 |
-£10.92 |
-18.8 |
| J Fanshawe |
170 |
23 |
13.5 |
-£41.24 |
-24.3 |
| S Kirk |
164 |
22 |
13.4 |
+£47.00 |
+28.7 |
| R Charlton |
194 |
25 |
12.9 |
-£67.52 |
-34.8 |
| D Simcock |
126 |
16 |
12.7 |
+£8.25 |
+6.5 |
| Mrs A Perrett |
184 |
22 |
12.0 |
+£12.91 |
+7.0 |
| W Brisbourne |
67 |
8 |
11.9 |
+£29.00 |
+43.3 |
| R Beckett |
219 |
26 |
11.9 |
-£43.86 |
-20.0 |
| R Hannon |
643 |
76 |
11.8 |
-£79.29 |
-12.3 |
| W Jarvis |
104 |
12 |
11.5 |
-£16.66 |
-16.0 |
| J Dunlop |
252 |
29 |
11.5 |
-£3.50 |
-1.4 |
| P Cole |
200 |
23 |
11.5 |
+£71.08 |
+35.5 |
| D Carroll |
70 |
8 |
11.4 |
+£30.50 |
+43.6 |
| A Balding |
255 |
29 |
11.4 |
-£23.33 |
-9.1 |
| C Cox |
146 |
16 |
11.0 |
-£46.49 |
-31.8 |
| M Dods |
110 |
12 |
10.9 |
-£12.00 |
-10.9 |
| J Toller |
55 |
6 |
10.9 |
+£31.00 |
+56.4 |
| J Osborne |
168 |
18 |
10.7 |
-£13.54 |
-8.1 |
| J R Best |
153 |
16 |
10.5 |
+£9.36 |
+6.1 |
| K Ryan |
303 |
31 |
10.2 |
-£75.58 |
-24.9 |
| D Nicholls |
118 |
12 |
10.2 |
-£33.77 |
-28.6 |
| H Candy |
121 |
12 |
9.9 |
-£42.17 |
-34.9 |
| P DArcy |
51 |
5 |
9.8 |
+£12.37 |
+24.3 |
| P Haslam |
82 |
8 |
9.8 |
+£76.88 |
+93.8 |
| E Vaughan |
72 |
7 |
9.7 |
-£19.25 |
-26.7 |
| A Bailey |
62 |
6 |
9.7 |
-£18.34 |
-29.6 |
| R Fahey |
315 |
30 |
9.5 |
-£108.76 |
-34.5 |
| B Meehan |
338 |
32 |
9.5 |
-£113.04 |
-33.4 |
| E Alston |
55 |
5 |
9.1 |
-£19.67 |
-35.8 |
| C Brittain |
198 |
18 |
9.1 |
-£41.75 |
-21.1 |
| J Weymes |
55 |
5 |
9.1 |
£19.00 |
34.5 |
| J J Quinn |
89 |
8 |
9.0 |
-£1.50 |
-1.7 |
| B Powell |
56 |
5 |
8.9 |
-£0.17 |
-0.3 |
| B Smart |
191 |
17 |
8.9 |
-£34.17 |
-17.9 |
| M Tregoning |
147 |
13 |
8.8 |
-£74.94 |
-51.0 |
| G Butler |
102 |
9 |
8.8 |
-£38.75 |
-38.0 |
| W Muir |
148 |
13 |
8.8 |
-£7.50 |
-5.1 |
| W Swinburn |
205 |
18 |
8.8 |
-£86.79 |
-42.3 |
| S Williams |
114 |
10 |
8.8 |
-£52.27 |
-45.9 |
| I Wood |
58 |
5 |
8.6 |
-£6.50 |
-11.2 |
| A McCabe |
74 |
6 |
8.1 |
-£33.00 |
-44.6 |
| J Hills |
151 |
12 |
7.9 |
-£42.17 |
-27.9 |
| J Bethell |
52 |
4 |
7.7 |
+£26.25 |
+50.5 |
| E O’Neill |
79 |
6 |
7.6 |
-£28.25 |
-35.8 |
| M Channon |
435 |
33 |
7.6 |
-£136.87 |
-31.5 |
| J Given |
145 |
11 |
7.6 |
-£37.62 |
-25.9 |
| T Dascombe |
120 |
9 |
7.5 |
-£55.29 |
-46.1 |
| P Blockley |
54 |
4 |
7.4 |
+£6.75 |
+12.5 |
| D Ivory |
68 |
5 |
7.4 |
+£19.50 |
+28.7 |
| M Usher |
68 |
5 |
7.4 |
-£10.00 |
-14.7 |
| T Barron |
137 |
10 |
7.3 |
-£63.71 |
-46.5 |
| Miss G Kelleway |
55 |
4 |
7.3 |
-£32.00 |
-58.2 |
| N Littmoden |
69 |
5 |
7.2 |
-£30.50 |
-44.2 |
| T Easterby |
280 |
20 |
7.1 |
-£111.75 |
-39.9 |
| Eve Johnson Houghton |
70 |
5 |
7.1 |
-£35.67 |
-51.0 |
| J Moore |
141 |
10 |
7.1 |
-£51.40 |
-36.5 |
| H Dunlop |
71 |
5 |
7.0 |
+£9.50 |
+13.4 |
| T Tate |
71 |
5 |
7.0 |
+£22.75 |
+32.0 |
| A King |
57 |
4 |
7.0 |
-£17.50 |
-30.7 |
| G L Moore |
143 |
10 |
7.0 |
-£88.54 |
-61.9 |
| B Millman |
130 |
9 |
6.9 |
-£35.50 |
-27.3 |
| J Boyle |
87 |
6 |
6.9 |
-£48.57 |
-55.8 |
| J Spearing |
59 |
4 |
6.8 |
-£25.75 |
-43.6 |
| M Wallace |
61 |
4 |
6.6 |
-£39.50 |
-64.8 |
| G Swinbank |
138 |
9 |
6.5 |
-£82.25 |
-59.6 |
| P Evans |
173 |
11 |
6.4 |
-£60.50 |
-35.0 |
| W Musson |
65 |
4 |
6.2 |
-£25.67 |
-39.5 |
| M Brittain |
66 |
4 |
6.1 |
+£25.50 |
+38.6 |
| D Shaw |
67 |
4 |
6.0 |
-£34.12 |
-50.9 |
| Miss J Feilden |
51 |
3 |
5.9 |
-£25.50 |
-50.0 |
| W Knight |
85 |
5 |
5.9 |
-£42.75 |
-50.3 |
| Mrs A Duffield |
122 |
7 |
5.7 |
-£54.67 |
-44.8 |
| M Tompkins |
154 |
8 |
5.2 |
-£90.00 |
-58.4 |
| I Semple |
58 |
3 |
5.2 |
-£37.50 |
-64.7 |
| P Midgley |
81 |
4 |
4.9 |
-£41.50 |
-51.2 |
| M Blanshard |
61 |
3 |
4.9 |
-£18.00 |
-29.5 |
| J Eustace |
61 |
3 |
4.9 |
-£26.00 |
-42.6 |
| R C Guest |
61 |
3 |
4.9 |
-£30.00 |
-49.2 |
| J Jenkins |
63 |
3 |
4.8 |
-£38.92 |
-61.8 |
| A Berry |
85 |
4 |
4.7 |
-£15.00 |
-17.6 |
| B Palling |
70 |
3 |
4.3 |
-£35.00 |
-50.0 |
| A Haynes |
72 |
3 |
4.2 |
-£54.77 |
-76.1 |
| M Easterby |
123 |
5 |
4.1 |
-£66.00 |
-53.7 |
| A Jarvis |
99 |
4 |
4.0 |
-£52.00 |
-52.5 |
| P Winkworth |
75 |
3 |
4.0 |
-£29.00 |
-38.7 |
| M Quinlan |
85 |
3 |
3.5 |
-£57.00 |
-67.1 |
| P Grayson |
59 |
2 |
3.4 |
-£31.00 |
-52.5 |
| R Hollinshead |
91 |
2 |
2.2 |
-£76.50 |
-84.1 |
| S Dow |
50 |
1 |
2.0 |
-£41.00 |
-82.0 |
| W Turner |
55 |
1 |
1.8 |
-£52.12 |
-94.8 |
| J Gask |
56 |
1 |
1.8 |
-£47.00 |
-83.9 |
| B Ellison |
57 |
1 |
1.8 |
-£52.00 |
-91.2 |
| N Tinkler |
58 |
1 |
1.7 |
-£41.00 |
-70.7 |
| R Harris |
62 |
1 |
1.6 |
-£59.25 |
-95.6 |
| J Portman |
78 |
1 |
1.3 |
-£70.50 |
-90.4 |
| A Carroll |
59 |
0 |
0.0 |
-£59.00 |
-100.0 |
Quite a wide range in fortunes, but it makes sense to concentrate on those trainers with the best strike rates to see if we can find any particularly positive angles. Let us look at Saeed Bin Suroor first and some additional positives:
- Horses priced between 5/2 and 6/1 have produced 23 winners from 78 (SR 29.5%) for a profit of £37.50 (ROI +48.1%);
- Horses racing at 1 mile or further have produced 40 winners from 145 (SR 27.6%) for a profit of £41.42 (ROI +28.6%);
- Horses racing in class 4 or lower have secured 25 wins from 81 (SR 30.9%) for a profit of £26.30 (ROI +32.5%);
- LTO winners on their handicap debut have produced 40 winners from 133 (SR 30.1%) for a profit of £23.28 (ROI +17.5%);
- Horses running on the all weather have provided 13 wins from 39 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £16.15 (ROI +41.4%).
Onto Sir Mark Prescott next:
- Horses priced 9/2 or bigger have proved the best value thanks to 18 winners from 81 (SR 18.5%) for a profit of £34.50 (ROI +42.6%);
- Horses racing on turf have provided 25 winners from 101 (SR 24.8%) for a profit of £23.16 (ROI +22.9%);
- Horses racing over 1m 3f or more have produced 17 wins from 64 (SR 26.6%) for a profit of £30.33 (ROI +47.4%).
One other point worth noting with Prescott is that his 3yos have made a 14% profit, his 2yos an 18% loss.
Sir Michael Stoute has made a small overall loss, but he has saddled 60 winners so there is a good chance to find a positive slant or two. Here is what I found:
- In class 5 or lower he had 16 winners from 41 (SR 39%) for a profit of £45.93 (ROI +112.0%);
- His 2yo handicap debutants are rare but 6, won and a further 6 placed from 25 (SR 24%) showing a profit of £10.00 (ROI +40%);
- Horses that were still maidens provided 22 winners from 105 (SR 21%) for a profit of £15.45 (ROI +14.7%);
- When having a runner in the top two of the weights Stoute’s runners produced 19 wins from 61 (SR 31.1%) for a healthy profit of £44.12 (ROI +72.3%).
The final trainer I want to focus on is Willie Haggas. Here are my findings:
- In class 5 or lower he had 26 winners from 107 (SR 24.3%) for a profit of £51.14 (ROI +47.8%);
- Horses racing on turf have provided 40 winners from 194 (SR 20.6%) for a profit of £69.96 (ROI +36.1%);
- Horses that were still maidens provided 19 winners from 100 (SR 19%) for a profit of £82.32 (ROI +82.3%);
- Runners from the top four of the weights have produced 31 wins from 122 (SR 25.4%) for a healthy profit of £65.12 (ROI +53.4%).
Despite handicap debutants generally being poor investments, it is clear there some filters improve results considerably, and there are profitable angles to be found. You just have to do a bit a of digging!
