Gearing up for the Flat 2009 by David Renham

 

 

 

By the time you read this article the turf flat season will be roughly a month away. The ‘close’ season is a time where I spend numerous hours, days and weeks collating and updating stats for the forthcoming season. This month my main focus is on three of the most prestigious tracks in the country – Ascot, Goodwood, and York. The stats for trainers, jockeys and starting price are taken from 2000 to 2008.

 

 

 

Ascot

 

 

 

All races – Starting Price rank

 

 

 

SP Rank	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
1	237	886	26.7%	-£86.58	-9.8%
2	126	821	15.3%	-£149.27	-18.2%
3	113	852	13.3%	-£37.67	-4.4%
4	72	830	8.7%	-£206.00	-24.8%
5	66	779	8.5%	-£99.00	-12.7%
6	45	794	5.7%	-£215.00	-27.1%
7	27	721	3.7%	-£300.00	-41.65
8	34	678	5%	-£46.00	-6.8%
9	21	598	3.5%	-£147.00	-24.6%
10	13	463	2.8%	-£201.00	-43.45
11th or bigger	44	2658	1.7%	-£1261.00	-47.4%

 

 

 

All races – trainers (minimum 30 runs; strike rate 13%+)

 

 

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
M Tregoning	23	89	25.8%	+£36.87	+41.4%
Sir M Stoute	50	295	16.9%	-£50.11	-17.0%
A O'Brien	31	186	16.7%	-£21.74	-11.7%
J Fanshawe	20	120	16.7%	-£16.39	-13.7%
W Haggas	20	128	15.6%	+£94.20	+73.6%
R Charlton	14	91	15.4%	+£41.25	+45.3%
M Johnston	56	371	15.1%	+£71.06	+19.2%
C Cox	9	61	14.8%	+£33.00	+54.1%
J Gosden	33	224	14.7%	+£5.65	+2.5%
S Bin Suroor	25	183	13.7%	-£22.75	-12.4%

 

 

 

All races – jockeys (minimum 10 wins; strike rate 10%+)

 

 

 

Jockey	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
J  Murtagh	43	232	18.5%	+£172.21	+74.2%
K Fallon	42	290	14.5%	-£40.30	-13.9%
K Darley	38	264	14.4%	+£44.73	+16.9%
R Hills	35	273	12.8%	-£66.51	-24.4%
L Dettori	52	419	12.4%	-£95.78	-22.9%
J Fortune	34	295	11.5%	+£28.13	+9.5%
T Quinn	28	249	11.2%	+£28.88	+11.6%
J Spencer	34	317	10.7%	-£14.95	-4.7%
M Kinane	26	259	10%	-£127.88	-49.4%

 

 

 

Draw bias – there is no noticeable bias on the round course at Ascot, but on the straight course (5f-1m) – in big fields it is usually best to be drawn very high or very low. On very soft ground it has been traditionally an advantage to be drawn high.

 

 

 

Here is an example from 2008 where there was a significant draw bias with one side strongly favoured:

 

 

 

27th July – Hong Kong Sprint 5f (26 runners)

 

 

 

1st Tom’s Laughter (drawn 23) 50/1

 

2nd Strike Up the Band (drawn 27) 8/1

 

3rd Total Impact (drawn 28) 16/1

 

4th Safari Mischief (drawn 25) 20/1

 

5th Orpsie Boy (drawn 26) 33/1

 

 

 

5 of the 6 highest drawn horses finished 1st to 5th. The best finishing position of a horse drawn in a single figure stall was 11th (Elhamri – drawn 9).

 

 

 

Pace bias / running styles - knowing what type of running style is favoured at certain C&Ds give you a useful edge over the majority of punters. It also gives you more scope to play “in running”. Here is an Ascot breakdown by distance:

 

 

 

5f – clear advantage to front runners / prominent racers;

 

6f – slight advantage to prominent racers;

 

7f – very difficult for front runners to make all;

 

1m (st) – advantage to hold up horses (accentuated by big fields);

 

1m (rd) – 1m4f – better to race prominently than be held up;

 

2m+ - no discernable advantage.

 

 

 

Goodwood

 

 

 

All races – Starting Price rank

 

 

 

SP Rank	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
1	399	1398	28.5%	-£107.90	-7.7%
2	246	1343	18.3%	-£91.11	-6.8%
3	166	1304	12.7%	-£168.43	-12.9%
4	138	1312	10.5%	-£149.50	-11.4%
5	100	1256	8%	-£208.50	-16.6%
6	69	1186	5.8%	-£295.50	-24.9%
7	49	1151	4.3%	-£433.00	-37.6%
8	32	935	3.4%	-£399.00	-42.7%
9	19	832	2.3%	-£466.00	-56%
10	15	675	2.2%	-£356.00	-52.7%
11th or bigger	40	2347	1.7%	-£1042.00	-44.4%

 

 

 

All races – trainers (minimum 30 runs; strike rate 17%+)

 

 

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
S Bin Suroor	37	150	24.7%	+£4.03	+2.7%
J Noseda	18	82	22.0%	-£4.87	-5.9%
C Wall	9	43	20.9%	+£15.38	+35.8%
Sir M Stoute	42	207	20.3%	-£7.66	-3.7%
J Gosden	53	272	19.5%	+£15.50	+5.7%
L Cumani	20	106	18.9%	+£2.78	+2.6%
J Fanshawe	18	97	18.6%	-£9.01	-9.3%
P Chapple-Hyam	9	49	18.4%	+£0.83	+1.7%
W Kittow	6	34	17.6%	+£18.50	+54.4%
M Tregoning	40	230	17.4%	+£5.75	+2.5%
Sir M Prescott	9	52	17.3%	-£8.88	-17.1%

 

 

 

All races – jockeys (minimum 10 wins; strike rate 13%+)

 

 

 

Jockey	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
L Dettori	68	324	21%	-£43.86	-13.5%
K McEvoy	22	114	19.3%	+£42.35	+37.1%
J Murtagh	22	133	16.5%	-£1.94	-1.5%
K Fallon	44	289	15.2%	-£71.86	-24.9%
R Moore	60	420	14.3%	+£89.81	+21.4%
P Robinson	23	162	14.2%	-£5.31	-3.3%
S Sanders	40	285	14%	+£83.96	+29.5%
M Kinane	12	88	13.6%	-£30.29	-34.4%
J Spencer	35	264	13.3%	-£14.60	-5.5%
J Fortune	52	394	13.2%	-£33.61	-8.5%

 

 

 

Draw bias – on the straight course there used to be a significant advantage to horses that were drawn high to middle. This seemed to increase in bigger fields. However, the last 3 years has seen a more level playing field. From 2006 to 2008 there have been 48 handicaps with 10 or more runners and the draw split has been as follows:

 

 

 

	Top “third” of the draw	Middle “third” of the draw	Bottom “third” of the draw
Winning percentage	29.2	43.8	27.1
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage	39.6	34.7	25

 

 

 

It seems low draws are at a slight disadvantage, but there is less in now than there was a few years ago.

 

 

 

A similar scenario has occurred at 7f. For many years the 7f trip at Goodwood was one of the most draw biased in the country. If we look at the figures from 2000 to 2005 for 7f handicaps with 10 or more runners we get the following:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

	Top “third” of the draw	Middle “third” of the draw	Bottom “third” of the draw
Winning percentage	53.2	23.4	23.4
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage	44	34.8	21.3

 

 

 

High draws had a significant advantage and very low draws struggled. However, in the last 3 years, a mixture of watering and rail moving has seen the bias disappear. The draw stats for 2006 to 2008 are thus:  

 

 

 

	Top “third” of the draw	Middle “third” of the draw	Bottom “third” of the draw
Winning percentage	25	45.8	29.2
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage	27.8	37.5	34.7

 

 

 

The highest draws have gone from winning slightly more than 1 race in every 2, to now winning just 1 in every 4 races.

 

 

 

Pace bias / running styles – there is little advantage to any particular style of runner at Goodwood. However, it should be noted that in 5f sprints front runners have a moderate record in comparison to other courses over the minimum trip.

 

 

 

York

 

 

 

All races – Starting Price rank

 

 

 

SP Rank	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
1	1010	287	28.4%	-£12.27	-1.2%
2	954	153	16%	-£172.01	-18%
3	981	117	11.9%	-£162.84	-16.6%
4	958	111	11.6%	+£62.50	+6.5%
5	937	48	5.1%	-£436.50	-46.6%
6	907	54	6%	-£190.00	-20.9%
7	800	38	4.8%	-£183.00	-22.9%
8	750	28	3.7%	-£285.00	-38%
9	677	23	3.4%	-£264.00	-39%
10	536	15	2.8%	-£186.00	-34.7%
11th or bigger	2591	47	1.8%	-£1154.00	-44.5%

 

 

 

All races – trainers (minimum 30 runs; strike rate 14%+)

 

 

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
S Bin Suroor	33	131	25.2%	+£5.45	+4.2%
J Dunlop	23	109	21.1%	+£57.85	+53.1%
Sir M Stoute	51	250	20.4%	+£11.72	+4.7%
Sir M Prescott	6	32	18.8%	-£0.25	-0.8%
J Noseda	19	102	18.6%	+£40.06	+39.3%
A O'Brien	18	107	16.8%	-£35.63	-33.3%
H Cecil	8	53	15.1%	+£17.99	+33.9%
L Cumani	17	114	14.9%	-£29.24	-25.6%
M Bell	14	96	14.6%	+£29.25	+30.5%

 

 

 

All races – jockeys (minimum 10 wins strike rate 11%+)

 

 

 

Jockey	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
L Dettori	45	215	20.9%	-£34.83	-16.2%
M Kinane	27	156	17.3%	-£7.13	-4.6%
K Fallon	57	349	16.3%	-£26.98	-7.7%
R Moore	19	134	14.2%	+£27.80	+20.7%
N Mackay	10	76	13.2%	+£54.13	+71.2%
J Spencer	31	237	13.1%	-£20.96	-8.8%
R Hills	22	172	12.8%	-£1.87	-1.1%
M Hills	27	232	11.6%	-£40.47	-17.4%
J Quinn	13	114	11.4%	+£2.75	+2.4%

 

 

 

Draw bias – there is little draw bias on the straight course (5/6f) although horses tend to stick to the centre of the track so in big fields it usually pays be drawn fairly central. On the round course low draws have a slight edge right up to 1m4f.

 

 

 

Pace bias / running styles – here is a York breakdown by distance:

 

 

 

5f – very slight advantage to prominent racers;

 

6f – slight advantage to front runners / prominent racers;

 

7f - 1m2f88yds – no real advantage;

 

1m4f or more – advantage to hold up horses.

 

 

 

York is perceived to be a track that favours front runners / prominent runners, but the overall figures do not back this up. For example in 7f handicaps, only 2 of the 21 races since 2000 have been won by the front runner.

 

 

 

Hopefully this article has given you a few pointers for this coming flat season.

 

 

 

Finally can I say a big thank you to Simon Walton at Proform racing (www.proformprofessional.com) and Paul Dyson, as their databases helped me with my pace and draw research.