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Future Race Pointers
Future Race Pointers by David Renham
In this article I am going to look at how horses performed next time out after running in a big race. The reason behind this idea is essentially that many horses are primed to peak in a specific race and hence next time out they are likely to underperform. Let us see whether that is true or not. The data in this article goes back to 2003. As the article goes back so far, all profits/losses have been calculated to traditional SP.
Epsom Derby – horses that ran in the Derby last time out have the following overall record in their next race:
Interesting to see a small profit made. Derby runners definitely deserve consideration in their very next race. Indeed if they drop two classes or lower next time (eg. Group 3 or lower) they have produced 11 winners from 48 for a profit of £41.02 (ROI +85.5%).
Epsom Oaks – horses that ran in the Oaks last time out have the following overall record in their next race:
These figures paint a positive picture and hence it seems we should take close note of any Oaks runner next time out. There has been however been a 28/1 winner in The Miniver Rose, who went on to win the Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster next time out. This winner does skew the overall figures somewhat. Having said that, horses that were favourite or second favourite in their next start after the Oaks have actually performed well - 19 winners from 47 for a profit of £19.04 (ROI +40.5%).
Epsom Dash (Handicap) – this is the big 5f sprint at the Derby meeting. Let us see how the runners fared next time:
Not a race to follow so it seems! Indeed, winners, runner ups, and horses that finished 3rd in the Dash have a dreadful combined record next time out – just 1 win from 30 for a loss of £24.00.This may be down to the fact that the Epsom 5f is totally different to any other 5f track in the country (it is the fastest 5f in the country). Hence a good run on the quirky straight 5f at Epsom is arguably difficult to replicate next time at a more conventional track. Other strong negative to note is horses that went onto run at Ascot next time - 0 wins and 0 placed runs from 25 (21 of those raced at Royal Ascot next time out).
Sussex Stakes (Goodwood) - one of the two Group 1 races run at Goodwood each year. This 1 mile contest occurs on the Wednesday of the Glorious Goodwood meeting. A look at how runners fared next time after this prestigious contest:
The Sussex Stakes rarely has a big field so it should be no surprise to see a small number of follow up runs. Having said that, they have made a profit thanks mainly to an excellent strike rate. There are a few more positives worth noting. Firstly the winners of the Sussex Stakes have provided 6 wins from 9 next time, while horses having a longish break after the Goodwood showpiece (11 weeks or more) have produced 6 winners from 14 for a profit of £18.76 (ROI +134%). Finally it looks best to concentrate on horses that race in Group 1 or 2 company next time as they have secured 12 winners from 38 for a profit of £15.85 (ROI +41.7%).
Stewards Cup Handicap (Goodwood) – the Stewards Cup at Goodwood is one of the biggest sprint handicaps of the year. It is run during the Glorious meeting (July/August) and let us see how competitors fared next time:
As one would expect with runners coming from a big field handicap, the strike rate is low, but I guessing using the exchanges or early prices a profit would have been obtained. All 10 winners of the Stewards Cup have failed to follow up with a win, while horses that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th have provided 7 winners for a profit of £21.38 (ROI +71.3%). Horses that have started between 10/1 and 20/1 next time out have produced a profit – 10 wins from 95 runners for a profit of £47.00 (ROI +49.5%). Whether these runners will produce a profit in the future is unclear, but perhaps such runners are slightly under-estimated by the betting market.
Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Ayr) – the Ayr Gold Cup is the third of the big 6f handicaps run each year in the UK. It is run in September and let us see how the runners performed next time:
A similar strike rate to the next time out Stewards Cup results as well as similar return on investment figures. A positive angle seems to be concentrating on horses that were in the top 3 in the betting for the Ayr Gold Cup. Backing all such runners on their very next start has produced 7 winners from 37 for a profit of £48.16 (ROI +130.2%). It should also be noted that 22 horses have raced in Group company next time and all have lost.
Cheveley Park Stakes (Newmarket) – this is a 2yo Group 1 race over 6f for female runners. It is run in October and let us see how the runners performed next time out:
A smaller number of runners as the field size for the CheveleyPark tends to be relatively small. Winners and runners up in the Cheveley Park have performed well next time with 7 wins from just 19 runners for a profit of £21.25 (ROI +111.5%). Indeed all 13 winners started in the top 5 of the betting next time out. Finally it should be noted there has been just 1 win from 17 for horses that raced next time out when still in their 2 year old year.
Middle Park Stakes (Newmarket) – this is a 2yo Group 1 race over 6f for male runners. It is run in October and let us see if the runners performed better than their CheveleyPark counterparts next time out:
Much poorer results here compared with the next time out CheveleyPark figures, You may wish to consider laying most of these runners especially when nearly 60% of the runners started in the top three in the betting on their next start producing losses of 64.4%. Another stat worth sharing is that of the 34 horses that finished in the first four of the Middle Park, none has gone onto win next time out!!
2yo Trophy (Redcar) – another 2yo race to look at also run in October. This race is worth over 100K to the winners and is clearly a race worth winning. It will be interesting to see how the runners perform next time:
These are very pleasing findings in terms of positive future race pointers. A decent strike rate next time for a break even situation (well 78 pence profit to be precise). It seems best to wait for these runners to reappear the following year as 3yos - they have provided 13 winners from 85 for a profit of £35.75 (ROI +42.1%). The market also seems to be a good guide when they race again as those who started in the top four of the betting have provided 28 winners from 100 for a profit of £37.78 (ROI +37.8%).
Cambridgeshire (Newmarket) – one of the big late season handicaps run at Newmarket over the specialist distance of 9f. Let us see what happens when the Cambridgeshire runners reappear for the first time:
A respectable next time out strike rate and close to breaking even which again is positive. Winners of the Cambridgeshire have done well scoring 4 times out of 10 next time for a return of 55%. There are some other angles to come out of this race - horses that return to the track within 30 days have performed poorly scoring just 9 times from 119 runners for a loss of £41.00 (ROI -34.5%). It looks best to wait for horses to make their seasonal debut on turf the following year. Focusing on those that return by the latest in July you get the following figures - 10 wins from 81 for a profit of £55.58 (ROI +68.6%). As with the Stewards Cup, horses that have started between 10/1 and 20/1 next time out have produced a profit – 8 wins from 101 runners for a profit of £47.00 (ROI +46.5%).
Cesarewitch (Newmarket) – another of the big late season handicaps run at Newmarket over a gruelling 2m 2f. The next time out results have been as follows:
A respectable strike rate but the prices of the next time out winners have not been as big as those in either the Stewards Cup, Ayr Gold Cup or the Cambridgeshire. There are a couple of future race angles to note: firstly horses that favourite on their subsequent start have produced a strike rate close to 40% and a small profit to boot; secondly horses returning to the track within 2 weeks have made a profit thanks to 9 winners from 55 for a profit of £18.00 (ROI +32.7%). Indeed if you restricted those quick returners to horses that finished LTO 8th or better in 30 runner+ Cesarewitch you would have secured 6 winners from just 16 qualifiers for a profit of £21.00 (ROI +131.3%).
There are other races I plan to look into and may write a further article in due course. I would like to examine certain big National Hunt races also. Suffice to say that runners in big races are often worth monitoring closely next time out and it will be interesting to see how this year's next time out results pan out.
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