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Flat Racing Switching Stables To A New Trainer


 

Flat Racing Switching Stables To A New Trainer

 

In this article I am looking at flat runners who have switched stables and are having his/her first run for a new trainer. So what effect does a change of stables have on this first run for a new trainer? I have gathered data for flat racing from the last full 6 seasons. I have included Irish data along with UK data:

 

All Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

13734

1021

7.4

-£4356.25

-31.7

 

As you can see, a change of stables can hardly be described as a ‘positive’. Losses of around 31 pence in the £ are testament to that. With this starting point, we will clearly be struggling to find many positive slants. However, finding negative stats has value, not just from a potential laying perspective, but also for elimination purposes when you are analysing a race. Let me look at some different angles:

 

Age – does age makes any difference? Here are the results:

 

Age

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

2

837

71

8.5

-£391.63

-46.8

3

4484

333

7.4

-£1503.26

-33.5

4

3886

289

7.4

-£1227.10

-31.6

5

2010

156

7.8

-£522.91

-26.0

6

1178

77

6.5

-£486.35

-41.3

7

663

52

7.8

-£193.98

-29.3

8

395

25

6.3

-£111.62

-28.3

9

170

15

8.8

£156.60

92.1

10+

111

3

2.7

-£76.00

-68.5

 

Losses for 2yos are quite steep at around 47 pence in the £, especially considering their strike rate is higher than the average. 9yos have made a decent profit but that is down to a few big priced winners (inc. a 50/1 and a 66/1 winner). Horses aged 10 or older have not surprisingly performed poorly.

 

Race type - let us look at a breakdown by race-type next:

 

Race type

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Claimers

726

83

11.4

-£268.76

-37.0

Handicaps

9127

638

7.0

-£2393.10

-26.2

Nurseries

275

14

5.1

-£165.75

-60.3

Maidens

2483

163

6.6

-£1,233.81

-49.7

NonHandicap

4607

383

8.3

-£1,963.15

-42.6

Sellers

579

71

12.3

-£67.49

-12.3

Group 1

38

1

2.6

-£29.00

-76.3

Group 2

44

7

15.9

+£43.67

+99.3

Group 3

88

11

12.5

-£2.21

-2.5

Listed Races

240

22

9.2

-£105.44

-43.9

 

Nurseries and maidens have produced very poor returns. There is limited data for Group races although the Group 2/3 figures look reasonable albeit from a small sample. Sellers have produced arguably the best results, but they still would have lost you 12p in the £. However, if backing horses in sellers that are having their first run for a new trainer, you would have made a profit if they had raced in a seller LTO. Such runners yielded 30 winners from 165 qualifiers (SR 18.2%) for a profit of £27.01 (ROI +16.4%).

 

Market rank - Onto a breakdown the results by market position.

 

Market rank

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Favourite

842

279

33.1

+£12.83

+1.5

2nd favourite

886

177

20.0

-£42.66

-4.8

3rd favourite

978

132

13.5

-£105.92

-10.8

4th in betting

1098

86

7.8

-£354.50

-32.3

5th in betting

1261

89

7.1

-£336.00

-26.6

6th in betting

1372

67

4.9

-£466.50

-34.0

7th in betting

1333

55

4.1

-£460.50

-34.5

8th in betting

1252

44

3.5

-£438.00

-35.0

9th in betting

1070

31

2.9

-£402.00

-37.6

10th+ in betting

3642

61

1.6

-£1,763.00

-48.4

 

The market seems to be an excellent guide with favourites and second favourites performing very well. Favourites showed a tiny profit, while second favourites lost less than 5p in the £. Hence horses having their first run for a new trainer that start first or second favourite do merit close scrutiny. Remember these figures are to SP, so one would expect an even better performance to early prices or Betfair.

 

Position LTO – next stop is to see what difference their LTO placing made:

 

Position LTO

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1st

1255

140

11.2

-£471.39

-37.6

2nd

1044

141

13.5

-£285.43

-27.3

3rd

945

105

11.1

-£244.05

-25.8

4th

1036

86

8.3

-£268.64

-25.9

5th

1128

98

8.7

-£294.65

-26.1

6th

1218

90

7.4

-£312.62

-25.7

7th

1158

68

5.9

-£392.65

-33.9

8th or worse

5950

293

4.9

-£2086.82

-35.1

 

Essentially the LTO performance looks fairly meaningless – I personally feel there may be mileage in laying LTO winners, especially as there were only 4 winners priced 14/1 or bigger, with the biggest winning price just 25/1.

 

Days since last run – onto fitness, or a measure of fitness at least. Here are the stats splitting them by days since their last run:

 

Days since last run

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1-10

343

57

16.6

-£47.57

-13.9

11-20

910

91

10.0

-£300.52

-33.0

21-30

916

97

10.6

-£122.56

-13.4

31-60

2009

177

8.8

-£523.65

-26.1

61-90

1220

104

8.5

-£236.17

-19.4

91+

8336

495

5.9

-£3125.78

-37.5

 

Horses returning within 10 days have a reasonable strike rate, but has still incurred losses. Although they clearly perform well above the norm for stable switchers, as do those having a break of 21-30 days. 

 

Time of Year – does the time of year make any difference? Let’s see:

 

Month

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Jan-Mar

2341

224

9.6

-£473.84

-20.2

Apr-Jun

4801

346

7.2

-£1336.47

-27.8

Jul-Sept

3843

265

6.9

-£1267.59

-33.0

Oct-Dec

2749

186

6.8

-£1278.35

-46.5

 

Performance seems to get worse as the year goes on. Quite severe losses at the end of the year.

 

Trainers – finally let us look at the trainers in question. These stats should offer us a selection of trainers with positive returns. I have chosen to include trainers with at least 35 runners and/or had at least 5 winners (min SR% 12%). The table is ordered by strike rate:

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Cumani, L M

36

13

36.1

+£31.05

+86.3

Elsworth, D R C

18

6

33.3

+£31.25

+173.6

Cox, C G

20

6

30.0

+£6.13

+30.7

Johnston, M

55

15

27.3

+£20.09

+36.5

Varian, Roger

42

11

26.2

+£5.62

+13.4

Walford, T D

20

5

25.0

+£47.25

+236.3

Baker, George

79

19

24.1

-£17.93

-22.7

Botti, M

63

15

23.8

+£56.00

+88.9

Haggas, W J

27

6

22.2

-£0.33

-1.2

Barron, T D

33

7

21.2

+£8.25

+25.0

Best, Jim

38

8

21.1

+£21.88

+57.6

Al Zarooni, Mahmood

30

6

20.0

+£2.63

+8.8

Ellison, B

96

19

19.8

+£0.87

+0.9

Suroor, Saeed Bin

104

20

19.2

-£22.55

-21.7

Burke, Mrs K

49

9

18.4

+£12.25

+25.0

Balding, A M

29

5

17.2

+£14.00

+48.3

Sturgis, Miss Tor

29

5

17.2

+£14.50

+50.0

Boyle, J R

93

15

16.1

-£48.72

-52.4

OMeara, D

89

14

15.7

-£7.30

-8.2

Simcock, D M

83

13

15.7

+£8.60

+10.4

Fahey, R A

135

21

15.6

-£24.16

-17.9

Evans, P D

200

31

15.5

-£29.24

-14.6

Chapple-Hyam, Jane

91

13

14.3

+£18.00

+19.8

Kelleway, Miss Gay

77

11

14.3

-£0.75

-1.0

Dalgleish, Keith

42

6

14.3

-£1.87

-4.5

Haynes, A B

51

7

13.7

-£6.75

-13.2

Vaughan, E F

37

5

13.5

+£11.20

30.3

Beckett, R M

39

5

12.8

-£4.50

-11.5

Ryan, K A

106

13

12.3

-£18.63

-17.6

Curtis, R

41

5

12.2

+£56.25

+137.2

 

Luca Cumani tops the list with an impressive overall set of figures. Mark Johnston is another trainer worth noting from a positive perspective.

 

Hopefully this article will help you decide whether a stable switcher is a good bet or not this flat season. In general it seems they are not, but there are some positive angles which this article has highlighted.

 








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