In this article I am going to see if changing stables can make a difference. Some owners remain very loyal to their trainers, while others are keen to move on if they feel their charges need a change of scenery. In this article I am going to compare two of the biggest National Hunt trainers – Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson. I have gone back to January 1st 2004 to compare their records. This article focuses solely one their first run for their new stable. I aim at a later date to see how these horses performed in subsequent runs.

 

Paul Nicholls – let us look at the record of horses switching stables and having their first run for Paul Nicholls:

 

Runners	Wins	Strike Rate	Profit	ROI
82	25	30.50%	+£0.35	+0.4%

 

Hence a roughly break even situation on their first run – let us break this first run for Paul Nicholls down into other categories:

 

Race type

 

Race type	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate	Profit	ROI
Novice hurdles	26	7	26.9%	-£1.72	-6.6%
Handicap hurdles	10	1	10%	-£5.67	-56.7%
Other hurdle races	11	3	27.3%	-£3.86	-35.1%
Novice chases	7	2	28.6%	-£1.75	-25%
Handicap chases	18	8	44.4%	+£12.37	+68.7%
Other chase races	3	2	66.7%	+£3.13	+104.3%
NH Flat races	7	2	28.6%	-£2.15	-30.7%

 

Chases look a profitable avenue, especially if we ignore novice chases. Indeed within the handicap chase stats there were 3 novice handicap chase runners, all who lost. Hence for more experienced chasers Nicholls has produced 8 wins from 15.

 

Market

 

Price	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate	Profit	ROI
Odds on	6	4	66.7%	+£0.22	+3.7%
Evens to 15/8	20	9	45%	+£3.05	+15.3%
2/1 to 11/4	14	6	42.9%	+£5.25	+37.5%
3/1 to 9/2	14	4	42.9%	+£3.83	+27.4%
5/1 to 15/2	10	2	20%	+£6.00	+60%
8/1 to 14/1	9	0	0%	-£9.00	-100%
16/1 or bigger	9	0	0%	-£9.00	-100%

 

The market rates as an excellent guide – it clearly looks worth ignoring horses that start 8/1 or bigger. Focusing on horses priced 15/2 or shorter you would have seen a strike rate of over 39% and made a profit of £18.35 (ROI +28.7%).

 

Age

 

Age	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate	Profit	ROI
7 or younger	57	14	24.6%	-£14.02	-24.6%
8 or older	25	11	44%	+£14.37	+57.5%

 

Older horses have a much better record when having their first run for Nicholls – this should be no surprise having seen the hurdle and chases stats – the chase stats were good for experienced runners.

 

Position last time out – horses that won LTO have produced just 1 win from 10 when switching stables. However focusing on horses 7th or worse LTO / did not complete the course LTO the results are very interesting – 15 wins from 39 (SR 38.5%) for a profit of £15.75 (ROI +40.4%).

 

Nicky Henderson– let us now look at the record of horses switching stables and having their first run for Nicky Henderson:

 

Runners	Wins	Strike Rate	Profit	ROI
52	19	36.5%	+£48.20	+92.7%

 

A very impressive set of figures – less runners than Nicholls but an excellent profit shown – backing all such runners would have almost doubled your money. Let us in more detail as we did before:

 

Race type

 

Race type	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate	Profit	ROI
Novice hurdles	25	9	36%	+£16.63	+66.5%
Handicap hurdles	4	2	50%	+£1.70	+42.5%
Other hurdle races	9	4	44.4%	+£14.62	+162.5%
Novice chases	8	1	12.5%	+£0.00	+0%
Handicap chases	2	1	50%	+£2.50	+125%
Other chase races	2	1	50%	+£11.00	+550%
NH Flat races	2	1	50%	+£1.75	+87.5%

 

73% of the horses have run in hurdle races, but all race types have shown a profit which is an excellent effort. I appreciate the samples are relatively small in many cases, but it still makes good reading.

 

Market

 

Price	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate	Profit	ROI
Odds on	1	0	0%	-£1.00	-100%
Evens to 15/8	8	5	62.5%	+£3.70	+46.3%
2/1 to 11/4	5	3	60%	+£6.00	+120%
3/1 to 9/2	12	5	41.7%	+£10.00	+83.3%
5/1 to 15/2	8	3	37.5%	+£14.50	+181.3%
8/1 to 14/1	14	3	21.4%	+£19.20	+137.1%
16/1 or bigger	4	0	0%	-£4.00	-100%

 

Henderson has been successful with short and medium priced horses alike.

 

Age

 

Age	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate	Profit	ROI
7 or younger	44	18	40.9%	+£43.20	+98.2%
8 or older	8	1	12.5%	+£5.00	+62.5%

 

With most of his runners tackling hurdles it is to be expected to see a bias to younger runners. The sample for horses 8 or older is too small to make any conclusions from.

 

Position last time out – horses that won LTO have produced 2 winners from 7 for a small profit but there are no clear trends overall. Horses that finished 4th LTO have won 5 from 7, but 7 runners is a very small sample!

 

Both trainers therefore have positive records – especially Henderson. I have looked at five other well known National Hunt trainers and here are the overall records for the first run for a new trainer after a change of stables:

 

Trainer	Runners	Wins	Strike Rate	Profit	ROI
A King	83	20	24.1%	+£29.38	+35.4%
N Twiston-Davies	45	10	22.2%	+£33.93	+75.4%
P Hobbs	123	23	18.7%	+£4.90	+4%
P Bowen	95	12	12.6%	-£28.80	-30.3%
J O’Neill	181	19	10.5%	-£93.75	-51.8%

 

Alan King looks another trainer to note in this area, as is Nigel Twiston-Davies – however it should be noted that Twiston-Davies has had winners at 25/1 and 12/1 which account for all of his profit. Compare this to Alan King who is 0 from 22 with runners priced 16/1 or bigger.

 

Hopefully this article has given you some food for thought.