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First Run After Changing Stables
In this article I am going to see if changing stables can make a difference. Some owners remain very loyal to their trainers, while others are keen to move on if they feel their charges need a change of scenery. In this article I am going to compare two of the biggest National Hunt trainers – Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson. I have gone back to January 1st 2004 to compare their records. This article focuses solely one their first run for their new stable. I aim at a later date to see how these horses performed in subsequent runs.
Paul Nicholls – let us look at the record of horses switching stables and having their first run for Paul Nicholls:
Hence a roughly break even situation on their first run – let us break this first run for Paul Nicholls down into other categories:
Chases look a profitable avenue, especially if we ignore novice chases. Indeed within the handicap chase stats there were 3 novice handicap chase runners, all who lost. Hence for more experienced chasers Nicholls has produced 8 wins from 15.
The market rates as an excellent guide – it clearly looks worth ignoring horses that start 8/1 or bigger. Focusing on horses priced 15/2 or shorter you would have seen a strike rate of over 39% and made a profit of £18.35 (ROI +28.7%).
Older horses have a much better record when having their first run for Nicholls – this should be no surprise having seen the hurdle and chases stats – the chase stats were good for experienced runners.
Position last time out – horses that won LTO have produced just 1 win from 10 when switching stables. However focusing on horses 7th or worse LTO / did not complete the course LTO the results are very interesting – 15 wins from 39 (SR 38.5%) for a profit of £15.75 (ROI +40.4%).
Nicky Henderson– let us now look at the record of horses switching stables and having their first run for Nicky Henderson:
A very impressive set of figures – less runners than Nicholls but an excellent profit shown – backing all such runners would have almost doubled your money. Let us in more detail as we did before:
73% of the horses have run in hurdle races, but all race types have shown a profit which is an excellent effort. I appreciate the samples are relatively small in many cases, but it still makes good reading.
Henderson has been successful with short and medium priced horses alike.
With most of his runners tackling hurdles it is to be expected to see a bias to younger runners. The sample for horses 8 or older is too small to make any conclusions from.
Position last time out – horses that won LTO have produced 2 winners from 7 for a small profit but there are no clear trends overall. Horses that finished 4th LTO have won 5 from 7, but 7 runners is a very small sample!
Both trainers therefore have positive records – especially Henderson. I have looked at five other well known National Hunt trainers and here are the overall records for the first run for a new trainer after a change of stables:
Alan King looks another trainer to note in this area, as is Nigel Twiston-Davies – however it should be noted that Twiston-Davies has had winners at 25/1 and 12/1 which account for all of his profit. Compare this to Alan King who is 0 from 22 with runners priced 16/1 or bigger.
Hopefully this article has given you some food for thought.
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