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First Run After Changing Stables


In this article I am going to see if changing stables can make a difference. Some owners remain very loyal to their trainers, while others are keen to move on if they feel their charges need a change of scenery. In this article I am going to compare two of the biggest National Hunt trainers – Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson. I have gone back to January 1st 2004 to compare their records. This article focuses solely one their first run for their new stable. I aim at a later date to see how these horses performed in subsequent runs.

 

Paul Nicholls – let us look at the record of horses switching stables and having their first run for Paul Nicholls:

 

Runners

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

82

25

30.50%

+£0.35

+0.4%

 

Hence a roughly break even situation on their first run – let us break this first run for Paul Nicholls down into other categories:

 

Race type

 

Race type

Runners

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Novice hurdles

26

7

26.9%

-£1.72

-6.6%

Handicap hurdles

10

1

10%

-£5.67

-56.7%

Other hurdle races

11

3

27.3%

-£3.86

-35.1%

Novice chases

7

2

28.6%

-£1.75

-25%

Handicap chases

18

8

44.4%

+£12.37

+68.7%

Other chase races

3

2

66.7%

+£3.13

+104.3%

NH Flat races

7

2

28.6%

-£2.15

-30.7%

 

Chases look a profitable avenue, especially if we ignore novice chases. Indeed within the handicap chase stats there were 3 novice handicap chase runners, all who lost. Hence for more experienced chasers Nicholls has produced 8 wins from 15.

 

Market

 

Price

Runners

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Odds on

6

4

66.7%

+£0.22

+3.7%

Evens to 15/8

20

9

45%

+£3.05

+15.3%

2/1 to 11/4

14

6

42.9%

+£5.25

+37.5%

3/1 to 9/2

14

4

42.9%

+£3.83

+27.4%

5/1 to 15/2

10

2

20%

+£6.00

+60%

8/1 to 14/1

9

0

0%

-£9.00

-100%

16/1 or bigger

9

0

0%

-£9.00

-100%

 

The market rates as an excellent guide – it clearly looks worth ignoring horses that start 8/1 or bigger. Focusing on horses priced 15/2 or shorter you would have seen a strike rate of over 39% and made a profit of £18.35 (ROI +28.7%).

 

Age

 

Age

Runners

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

7 or younger

57

14

24.6%

-£14.02

-24.6%

8 or older

25

11

44%

+£14.37

+57.5%

 

Older horses have a much better record when having their first run for Nicholls – this should be no surprise having seen the hurdle and chases stats – the chase stats were good for experienced runners.

 

Position last time out – horses that won LTO have produced just 1 win from 10 when switching stables. However focusing on horses 7th or worse LTO / did not complete the course LTO the results are very interesting – 15 wins from 39 (SR 38.5%) for a profit of £15.75 (ROI +40.4%).

 

Nicky Henderson– let us now look at the record of horses switching stables and having their first run for Nicky Henderson:

 

Runners

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

52

19

36.5%

+£48.20

+92.7%

 

A very impressive set of figures – less runners than Nicholls but an excellent profit shown – backing all such runners would have almost doubled your money. Let us in more detail as we did before:

 

Race type

 

Race type

Runners

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Novice hurdles

25

9

36%

+£16.63

+66.5%

Handicap hurdles

4

2

50%

+£1.70

+42.5%

Other hurdle races

9

4

44.4%

+£14.62

+162.5%

Novice chases

8

1

12.5%

+£0.00

+0%

Handicap chases

2

1

50%

+£2.50

+125%

Other chase races

2

1

50%

+£11.00

+550%

NH Flat races

2

1

50%

+£1.75

+87.5%

 

73% of the horses have run in hurdle races, but all race types have shown a profit which is an excellent effort. I appreciate the samples are relatively small in many cases, but it still makes good reading.

 

Market

 

Price

Runners

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Odds on

1

0

0%

-£1.00

-100%

Evens to 15/8

8

5

62.5%

+£3.70

+46.3%

2/1 to 11/4

5

3

60%

+£6.00

+120%

3/1 to 9/2

12

5

41.7%

+£10.00

+83.3%

5/1 to 15/2

8

3

37.5%

+£14.50

+181.3%

8/1 to 14/1

14

3

21.4%

+£19.20

+137.1%

16/1 or bigger

4

0

0%

-£4.00

-100%

 

Henderson has been successful with short and medium priced horses alike.

 

Age

 

Age

Runners

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

7 or younger

44

18

40.9%

+£43.20

+98.2%

8 or older

8

1

12.5%

+£5.00

+62.5%

 

With most of his runners tackling hurdles it is to be expected to see a bias to younger runners. The sample for horses 8 or older is too small to make any conclusions from.

 

Position last time out – horses that won LTO have produced 2 winners from 7 for a small profit but there are no clear trends overall. Horses that finished 4th LTO have won 5 from 7, but 7 runners is a very small sample!

 

Both trainers therefore have positive records – especially Henderson. I have looked at five other well known National Hunt trainers and here are the overall records for the first run for a new trainer after a change of stables:

 

Trainer

Runners

Wins

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

A King

83

20

24.1%

+£29.38

+35.4%

N Twiston-Davies

45

10

22.2%

+£33.93

+75.4%

P Hobbs

123

23

18.7%

+£4.90

+4%

P Bowen

95

12

12.6%

-£28.80

-30.3%

J O’Neill

181

19

10.5%

-£93.75

-51.8%

 

Alan King looks another trainer to note in this area, as is Nigel Twiston-Davies – however it should be noted that Twiston-Davies has had winners at 25/1 and 12/1 which account for all of his profit. Compare this to Alan King who is 0 from 22 with runners priced 16/1 or bigger.

 

Hopefully this article has given you some food for thought.

 








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