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February Trainers 2013


 

February Trainers by David Renham

 

Here is the monthly article I write for punter profits based on past trainer performance during a specific month. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of February with data taken from 2007 to 2012.

 

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

 

All races (Feb 07-12) – 50 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

109

419

26.0

-£119.08

-28.4

Paul Nicholls

104

421

24.7

-£63.95

-15.2

Alan Swinbank

17

70

24.3

+£9.52

+13.6

Donald McCain

66

320

20.6

+£12.59

+3.9

Venetia Williams

72

377

19.1

-£78.29

-20.8

Nick Williams

12

64

18.8

+£32.10

+50.2

Nicky Richards

27

151

17.9

-£10.37

-6.9

Charlie Mann

27

157

17.2

+£42.09

+26.8

John Quinn

11

64

17.2

+£28.23

+44.1

David Pipe

63

370

17.0

-£97.66

-26.4

Lucy Wadham

15

90

16.7

+£10.15

+11.3

Rebecca Curtis

9

55

16.4

-£23.63

-43.0

Gary Moore

44

277

15.9

-£18.12

-6.5

Nick Gifford

18

114

15.8

+£4.73

+4.2

Alan King

73

475

15.4

-£123.42

-26.0

Victor Dartnall

15

98

15.3

+£1.63

+1.7

 

Nicky Henderson secured the highest strike rates in November, December and January, and has managed to make it four months in a row. However, losses are steep especially considering the strike rate. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls is second on the list, and his overall returns although great are still better than Hendersons’. Despite overall losses, there are two courses where Nicholls has done particularly well in February – firstly Sandown with 14 wins from 35 (SR 40%) for a profit of £13.82 (ROI +39.5%); secondly Newbury with 18 wins from 55 (SR 32.7%) for a profit of £29.05 (ROI +52.8%).

 

Donald McCain has a solid looking record in this month. With market leaders he has had an excellent record saddling 34 winning favourites from 66 (SR 51.5%) for a profit of £17.64 (ROI +26.7%). Course wise he has saddled 8 winners from 18 (SR 44.4%) at Carlisle for a profit of £33.63 (ROI +186.8%), while at Bangor he has secured 10 wins from 38 (SR 26.3%) for a profit of £28.16 (ROI +74.1%). McCain also has a good record in novice hurdles – 26 wins from 98 (SR 26.5%) for a profit of £47.62 (ROI +48.6%).

 

As I always point out in these articles, it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (Feb 07-12) – 50 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

George Moore

4

67

6.0

-£40.88

-61.0

Bob Buckler

5

93

5.4

-£63.17

-67.9

Kate Walton

3

57

5.3

-£38.75

-68.0

Seamus Mullins

5

101

5.0

-£62.25

-61.6

Chris Gordon

3

62

4.8

-£47.17

-76.1

Alistair Whillans

3

67

4.5

-£55.42

-82.7

Michael Chapman

3

67

4.5

£62.00

92.5

Richard Rowe

3

68

4.4

-£53.17

-78.2

Nigel Hawke

3

74

4.1

-£10.50

-14.2

Neil Mulholland

3

75

4.0

-£65.25

-87.0

Robert Johnson

2

55

3.6

-£33.00

-60.0

Martin Todhunter

2

56

3.6

-£47.88

-85.5

John Wade

2

59

3.4

-£49.25

-83.5

Milton Harris

3

89

3.4

-£37.25

-41.9

Ron Hodges

2

63

3.2

-£32.50

-51.6

Chris Bealby

1

58

1.7

-£43.00

-74.1

 

As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses and I will be avoiding these trainers this month, unless there is a pretty compelling reason not to.

 

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in February since 2007:

 

All chases (Feb 07-12) – 25 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

35

110

31.8

-£22.51

-20.5

Paul Nicholls

52

188

27.7

-£32.47

-17.3

Donald McCain

27

98

27.6

+£6.87

+7.0

Nicky Richards

9

36

25.0

+£9.18

+25.5

Gary Moore

16

69

23.2

+£2.37

+3.4

Oliver Sherwood

7

31

22.6

+£18.92

+61.0

David Pipe

22

115

19.1

+£4.53

+3.9

Alan King

25

132

18.9

-£8.50

-6.4

Nick Williams

6

32

18.8

+£5.50

+17.2

Tom George

14

77

18.2

+£7.60

+9.9

Charlie Mann

12

66

18.2

+£10.49

+15.9

Venetia Williams

31

172

18.0

-£55.78

-32.4

Brendan Powell

10

56

17.9

-£3.33

-5.9

Philip Hobbs

19

107

17.8

-£14.84

-13.9

Charlie Longsdon

6

34

17.7

+£0.88

+2.6

Victor Dartnall

5

29

17.2

-£0.75

-2.6

Ian Williams

6

35

17.1

-£11.49

-32.8

Emma Lavelle

5

30

16.7

-£13.45

-44.8

 

I have done a bit of digging and have found a few chases stats worth sharing:

 

-         Nicky Henderson’s record with favourites is impressive thanks to 30 wins from 47 (SR 63.8%) for a profit of £16.36 (ROI +34.8%);

-         Venetia Williams has saddled 13 winners from 32 (SR 40.6%) in novice chases for a profit of £9.92 (ROI +31%);

-         David Pipe has a good record in handicap chases especially when focusing on those runners priced 12/1 or shorter. His record reads 17 wins from 63 (SR 27.0%) for a profit of £34.02 (ROI +54%);

-         Nicky Richards has done well in non handicaps with 7 wins from 16 (SR 43.8%) for a profit of £17.35 (ROI +108.4%).

 

Let us now look at the trainers that have struggled in chases in February:

 

 

 

 

All chases (Feb 07-12) – 25 runs minimum (SR 7% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

John Cornwall

2

29

6.9

-£14.00

-48.3

Jim Old

2

31

6.5

-£11.00

-35.5

Henry Daly

4

65

6.2

-£48.97

-75.3

Andy Turnell

2

34

5.9

-£13.25

-39.0

Bob Buckler

3

54

5.6

-£30.00

-55.6

Richard Mitchell

1

25

4.0

-£17.50

-70.0

Ron Hodges

1

26

3.9

+£0.00

+0.0

Milton Harris

1

31

3.2

-£16.00

-51.6

Michael Chapman

0

27

0.0

-£27.00

-100.0

 

Moving onto hurdle races now:

 

All hurdle races (Feb 07-12) – 40 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

61

267

22.9

-£87.58

-32.8

Paul Nicholls

45

200

22.5

-£24.18

-12.1

Venetia Williams

40

190

21.1

-£10.76

-5.7

Donald McCain

36

193

18.7

+£21.07

+10.9

Jim Goldie

8

43

18.6

+£56.45

+131.3

Charlie Longsdon

11

69

15.9

-£2.98

-4.3

Lucy Wadham

9

59

15.3

+£19.82

+33.6

David Pipe

34

232

14.7

-£102.41

-44.1

Alan King

41

280

14.6

-£81.58

-29.1

Charlie Mann

12

82

14.6

+£20.98

+25.6

Nicky Richards

14

97

14.4

-£30.88

-31.8

Jonjo O'Neill

28

197

14.2

-£19.59

-9.9

Gary Moore

27

193

14.0

-£9.50

-4.9

Richard Lee

6

43

14.0

-£11.55

-26.9

 

No particularly earth shattering stats for hurdle races. Remember though the earlier Donald McCain in connection with novice hurdles.

 

Now the trainers who have apoor record in hurdle races in this month.

 

All hurdle races (Feb 07-12) – 40 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Sue Smith

6

100

6.0

-£53.13

-53.1

James Frost

3

50

6.0

-£7.50

-15.0

Richard Phillips

5

85

5.9

-£43.75

-51.5

Alistair Whillans

2

43

4.7

-£33.25

-77.3

Neil Mulholland

2

45

4.4

-£38.75

-86.1

Brendan Powell

4

91

4.4

-£68.00

-74.7

Kim Bailey

2

50

4.0

-£20.00

-40.0

Henrietta Knight

2

51

3.9

-£35.63

-69.9

Seamus Mullins

2

52

3.9

-£36.25

-69.7

Nigel Hawke

1

42

2.4

+£9.00

+21.4

George Moore

1

43

2.3

-£40.38

-93.9

Milton Harris

1

52

1.9

-£18.00

-34.6

 

 

Finally let us move onto bumpers. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 20bumper runners during this month over the 6-year period:

 

All bumper races (Feb 07-12) – 20 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

13

42

31.0

-£8.99

-21.4

David Pipe

7

23

30.4

+£0.22

+1.0

Alan Swinbank

8

29

27.6

-£3.58

-12.3

Philip Hobbs

6

22

27.3

+£12.16

+55.3

Paul Nicholls

7

33

21.2

-£7.30

-22.1

Colin Tizzard

4

25

16.0

-£3.90

-15.6

Alan King

7

63

11.1

-£33.33

-52.9

Nigel Twiston-Davies

3

28

10.7

+£32.75

+117.0

Donald McCain

3

29

10.3

-£15.35

-52.9

Paul Webber

2

24

8.3

-£7.00

-29.2

Keith Reveley

1

29

3.5

-£24.00

-82.8

 

Limited data for bumper races, but Hobbs and Pipe both are worth closer scrutiny. For the record Nick Gifford has done well in this month with his bumper runners – however he had less than 20 required runners so did not make the table. However, it is worth sharing his performance – 7 wins from 17 (SR 41.2%) for a profit of £19.00 (ROI +111.8%). He is 5 from 6 at Fontwell during this month!

 

February offers a mixed bag of trainer stats, and overall they are not quite as strong / positive as in previous months. This may be down to the fact that many of the top trainers are focused on getting their runners to peak fitness next month for the Cheltenham festival. That is my theory anyway and I’m sticking to it!

 

 








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