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February Trainers 2012
February Trainers by David Renham
Here is the monthly article I write for punter profits based on past trainer performance during a specific month. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of February with data taken from 2007 to 2011.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (Feb 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 16%+)
Nicky Henderson secured the highest strike rates in November, December and January, but this month he has to settle for a close second. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls heads the list, but overall returns have produced losses equating to around 9p in the £. Having said that there are two courses where Nicholls has done particularly well in February – firstly Sandown with 12 wins from 30 (SR 40%) for a profit of £12.59 (ROI +42%); secondly Newbury with 17 wins from 45 (SR 37.8%) for a profit of £35.30 (ROI +78.4%). He also has a profitable record in class 1 events thanks to 27 wins from 100 (SR 27%) for a profit of £24.15 (ROI +24.2%).
Donald McCain has a solid looking record in this month. With market leaders he has had an excellent record saddling 29 winning favourites from 56 (SR 51.8%) for a profit of £18.06 (ROI +32.2%). Course wise he has saddled 7 winners from 16 (SR 43.8%) at Carlisle for a profit of £29.13 (ROI +182.03), while at Ayr he has secured 6 wins from 13 (SR 46.2%) for a profit of £10.36 (ROI +79.7%).
As I always point out in these articles, it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Feb 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)
As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses and I will be avoiding these trainers this month, unless there is a pretty compelling reason not to. The only trainer I would consider betting is Kim Bailey, as the form of his stable has improved dramatically in the last 12-18 months.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in February since 2007:
All chases (Feb 07-11) – 25 runs minimum (SR 17%+)
There are just 4 trainers in positive figures which is a little surprising. Here are the most interesting stats I have unearthed:
Let us now look at the trainers that have struggled in chases in February:
All chases (Feb 07-11) – 25 runs minimum (SR 7% or lower)
Moving onto hurdle races now:
All hurdle races (Feb 07-11) – 40 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Venetia Williams who excelled in novice chases, has actually performed well in hurdle races when her runners have been fancied. Horses priced 4/1 or shorter have provided 28 winners from 69 (SR 40.6%) for a profit of £18.04 (ROI +26.1%). Donald McCain has excelled in novice hurdles with 20 winners from 82 (SR 24.4%) for a profit of £41.91 (ROI +51.1%).
Finally let us move onto bumpers. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 18 bumper runners during this month over the 5-year period:
All bumper races (Feb 07-11) – 17 runs minimum
Limited data for bumper races, but Hobbs and Pipe look worth keeping an eye on.
February offers a mixed bag of trainer stats, and overall they are not quite as strong / positive as in previous months. This may be down to the fact that many of the top trainers are focused on getting their runners to peak fitness next month for the Cheltenham festival. That is my theory!
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