Articles >> horse-racing >>

February Trainers 2012


February Trainers by David Renham

Here is the monthly article I write for punter profits based on past trainer performance during a specific month. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of February with data taken from 2007 to 2011.

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

All races (Feb 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Paul Nicholls 99 374 26.5 -£34.30 -9.2
Nicky Henderson 93 358 26.0 -£93.26 -26.1
Alan Swinbank 15 60 25.0 +£6.52 +10.9
Donald McCain 52 265 19.6 -£15.74 -5.9
Venetia Williams 63 327 19.3 -£87.24 -26.7
Lucy Wadham 14 77 18.2 +£17.65 +22.9
Nick Williams 9 50 18.0 +£36.10 +72.2
John Quinn 10 56 17.9 +£25.23 +45.1
Tim Vaughan 18 101 17.8 +£59.16 +58.6
Nicky Richards 24 138 17.4 -£21.20 -15.4
Charlie Mann 23 136 16.9 +£22.35 +16.4
David Pipe 53 320 16.6 -£98.83 -30.9
Gary Moore 39 244 16.0 -£10.50 -4.3

 

Nicky Henderson secured the highest strike rates in November, December and January, but this month he has to settle for a close second. Champion trainer Paul Nicholls heads the list, but overall returns have produced losses equating to around 9p in the £. Having said that there are two courses where Nicholls has done particularly well in February – firstly Sandown with 12 wins from 30 (SR 40%) for a profit of £12.59 (ROI +42%); secondly Newbury with 17 wins from 45 (SR 37.8%) for a profit of £35.30 (ROI +78.4%). He also has a profitable record in class 1 events thanks to 27 wins from 100 (SR 27%) for a profit of £24.15 (ROI +24.2%).

Donald McCain has a solid looking record in this month. With market leaders he has had an excellent record saddling 29 winning favourites from 56 (SR 51.8%) for a profit of £18.06 (ROI +32.2%). Course wise he has saddled 7 winners from 16 (SR 43.8%) at Carlisle for a profit of £29.13 (ROI +182.03), while at Ayr he has secured 6 wins from 13 (SR 46.2%) for a profit of £10.36 (ROI +79.7%).

As I always point out in these articles, it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (Feb 07-11) – 50 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Bob Buckler 5 85 5.9 -£55.17 -64.9
Alex Hales 3 51 5.9 -£24.75 -48.5
Kim Bailey 4 71 5.6 -£27.00 -38.0
Alistair Whillans 3 55 5.5 -£43.42 -78.9
Richard Rowe 3 63 4.8 -£48.17 -76.5
Neil Mulholland 3 66 4.6 -£56.25 -85.2
Nigel Hawke 3 72 4.2 -£8.50 -11.8
Robert Johnson 2 52 3.9 -£30.00 -57.7
Chris Gordon 2 53 3.8 -£42.50 -80.2
Michael Chapman 2 55 3.6 -£27.00 -49.1
Seamus Mullins 3 85 3.5 -£63.75 -75.0
Milton Harris 3 89 3.4 -£37.25 -41.9
Ron Hodges 2 63 3.2 -£32.50 -51.6
Martin Todhunter 1 50 2.0 -£47.38 -94.8

 

As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses and I will be avoiding these trainers this month, unless there is a pretty compelling reason not to. The only trainer I would consider betting is Kim Bailey, as the form of his stable has improved dramatically in the last 12-18 months.

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in February since 2007:

All chases (Feb 07-11) – 25 runs minimum (SR 17%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Paul Nicholls 50 168 29.8 -£17.07 -10.2
Nicky Henderson 26 89 29.2 -£23.59 -26.5
Donald McCain 22 88 25.0 -£8.25 -9.4
Nicky Richards 8 33 24.2 +£7.85 +23.8
Oliver Sherwood 7 29 24.1 +£20.92 +72.1
Charlie Longsdon 6 25 24.0 +£9.88 +39.5
Gary Moore 14 62 22.6 £0.00 0.0
Ian Williams 6 27 22.2 -£3.49 -12.9
Philip Hobbs 19 95 20.0 -£2.84 -3.0
Alan King 22 116 19.0 -£11.00 -9.5
Venetia Williams 28 151 18.5 -£53.53 -35.5
David Pipe 19 103 18.5 -£0.97 -0.9
Brendan Powell 9 52 17.3 -£6.83 -13.1
Henrietta Knight 6 35 17.1 -£9.67 -27.6
Keith Reveley 7 41 17.1 +£17.63 +43.0

 

There are just 4 trainers in positive figures which is a little surprising. Here are the most interesting stats I have unearthed:

  • David Pipe has had a decent record with favourites thanks to 10 winners from 22 (SR 45.5%) for a healthy profit of £7.65 (ROI +34.8%);
  • Nicky Richards too has done well in non handicaps with 7 wins from 16 (SR 43.8%) for a profit of £17.35 (ROI +108.4%);
  • Venetia Williams has saddled 9 winners from 13 (SR 69.2%) in novice chases for a profit of £9.82 (ROI +75.5%).

 

Let us now look at the trainers that have struggled in chases in February:

All chases (Feb 07-11) – 25 runs minimum (SR 7% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Andy Turnell 2 29 6.9 -£8.25 -28.5
Jim Old 2 29 6.9 -£9.00 -31.0
Bob Buckler 3 48 6.3 -£24.00 -50.0
Henry Daly 3 59 5.1 -£47.30 -80.2
John Cornwall 1 25 4.0 -£17.00 -68.0
Ron Hodges 1 26 3.9 £0.00 0.0
Milton Harris 1 31 3.2 -£16.00 -51.6

 

Moving onto hurdle races now:

All hurdle races (Feb 07-11) – 40 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Paul Nicholls 43 179 24.0 -£11.43 -6.4
Nicky Henderson 54 231 23.4 -£64.68 -28.0
Venetia Williams 34 162 21.0 -£22.96 -14.2
Donald McCain 27 155 17.4 +£0.86 +0.6
Lucy Wadham 8 48 16.7 +£25.32 +52.8
Tim Vaughan 10 62 16.1 +£42.15 +68.0
Charlie Longsdon 9 56 16.1 -£0.65 -1.2
Michael Easterby 7 45 15.6 +£8.88 +19.7
Charlie Mann 11 73 15.1 -£4.02 -5.5
Nicky Richards 14 93 15.1 -£26.88 -28.9

 

Venetia Williams who excelled in novice chases, has actually performed well in hurdle races when her runners have been fancied. Horses priced 4/1 or shorter have provided 28 winners from 69 (SR 40.6%) for a profit of £18.04 (ROI +26.1%). Donald McCain has excelled in novice hurdles with 20 winners from 82 (SR 24.4%) for a profit of £41.91 (ROI +51.1%).

Finally let us move onto bumpers. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 18 bumper runners during this month over the 5-year period:

All bumper races (Feb 07-11) – 17 runs minimum

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
David Pipe 7 19 36.8 +£4.22 +22.2
Nicky Henderson 13 38 34.2 -£4.99 -13.1
Philip Hobbs 6 19 31.6 +£15.16 +79.8
Alan Swinbank 7 27 25.9 -£4.58 -17.0
Tim Vaughan 4 17 23.5 +£18.08 +106.4
Paul Nicholls 6 27 22.2 -£5.80 -21.5
Michael Easterby 3 17 17.7 -£0.50 -2.9
Donald McCain 3 22 13.6 -£8.35 -38.0
Emma Lavelle 2 18 11.1 +£2.25 +12.5
Alan King 6 58 10.3 -£32.83 -56.6
Colin Tizzard 2 23 8.7 -£9.00 -39.1
Paul Webber 2 23 8.7 -£6.00 -26.1
Nigel Twiston-Davies 2 26 7.7 +£31.00 +119.2
Keith Reveley 1 26 3.9 -£21.00 -80.8
Brendan Powell 0 17 0.0 -£17.00 -100.0

 

Limited data for bumper races, but Hobbs and Pipe look worth keeping an eye on.

February offers a mixed bag of trainer stats, and overall they are not quite as strong / positive as in previous months. This may be down to the fact that many of the top trainers are focused on getting their runners to peak fitness next month for the Cheltenham festival. That is my theory!








Free Registration
 
Systems
Free Horse Racing System
 
 
Racing Research
Racing Report Vault
 
Flat Racing Trainer Report
 
Horse Racing Research Articles
 
Bookmakers & Odds
Bookmakers and Free Bets
 
Odds Comparison
 
Top Link Partners


 

Copyright PunterProfits.com