February Trainers by David Renham

Here is the monthly article I write for punter profits based on past trainer performance during a specific month. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of February with data taken from 2005 to 2010.

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

All races (Feb 05-10) – 50 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
P F Nicholls	121	462	26.2	-£70.75	-15.3
N J Henderson	93	362	25.7	-£24.08	-6.7
G A Swinbank	13	51	25.5	+£1.00	+2.0
F Doumen	10	50	20.0	+£26.62	+53.2
Miss Venetia Williams	75	384	19.5	-£24.24	-6.3
Mrs L Wadham	17	93	18.3	+£22.95	+24.7
D McCain Jnr	36	198	18.2	-£20.60	-10.4
D Pipe	47	273	17.2	-£72.69	-26.6
P J Hobbs	52	311	16.7	-£56.43	-18.2
N G Richards	29	174	16.7	-£52.12	-30.0
C J Mann	22	134	16.4	-£10.65	-8.0
A King	66	408	16.2	-£89.10	-21.8
Mrs A M Thorpe	12	76	15.8	+£47.98	+63.1
J J Quinn	9	58	15.5	+£8.77	+15.1
Jonjo O'Neill	52	341	15.3	-£56.95	-16.7

 

For the first time in four months, Nicky Henderson fails to secure the highest strike rate. Having said that he is still a close second! Champion trainer Paul Nicholls heads the list, but overall returns have been disappointing with losses equating to around 15p in the £. Having said that there are two course where Nicholls has done particularly well in February – firstly Sandown with 16 wins from 48 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £11.47 (ROI +23.9%); secondly Newbury with 15 wins from 44 (SR 34.1%) for a profit of £27.75 (ROI +63.1%).

French raider Francois Doumen has a good record in February from a limited number of runners. Take note ”in running” punters! His horses that have raced up with or close to the pace have won 8 races from 24 (SR 33.3%); horses that were held up have won just 2 from 26 (SR 7.7%).

Keeping on the “in running” theme, Venetia Williams has secured a 35% strike rate with her front runners in this month, whereas her hold up horses have won less than 10% of the time.

As I always point out in these articles, it is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (Feb 05-10) – 50 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
M F Harris	6	102	5.9	-£57.75	-56.6
J Wade	3	51	5.9	-£9.00	-17.7
A C Whillans	3	52	5.8	-£1.67	-3.2
G M Moore	4	70	5.7	-£41.50	-59.3
D Burchell	3	53	5.7	+£11.50	+21.7
R Rowe	4	72	5.6	-£48.34	-67.1
D J Wintle	3	54	5.6	-£26.00	-48.2
R Johnson	3	55	5.5	-£20.00	-36.4
J W Mullins	6	121	5.0	-£53.25	-44.0
Heather Dalton	3	61	4.9	-£35.63	-58.4
M Todhunter	3	62	4.8	-£42.88	-69.2
J D Frost	4	84	4.8	-£32.50	-38.7
B G Powell	7	174	4.0	-£138.18	-79.4
Miss S E Forster	2	54	3.7	-£32.00	-59.3
R J Hodges	3	91	3.3	-£50.50	-55.5
C C Bealby	2	64	3.1	-£54.63	-85.4
M C Chapman	2	68	2.9	-£40.00	-58.8
N J Hawke	2	86	2.3	-£28.50	-33.1
N R Mitchell	1	50	2.0	-£42.50	-85.0
J A Geake	1	57	1.8	-£16.00	-28.1

 

As we always see, most of the trainers in this list show significant losses and I will be avoiding these trainers this month, unless there is a pretty compelling reason not to!

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in February since 2005:

All chases (Feb 05-10) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
P F Nicholls	65	219	29.7	-£28.56	-13.0
N G Richards	11	41	26.8	+£8.38	+20.5
D McCain Jnr	17	66	25.8	-£5.53	-8.4
N J Henderson	22	94	23.4	-£12.93	-13.8
O Sherwood	8	35	22.9	+£3.67	+10.5
R C Guest	9	43	20.9	+£26.20	+60.9
P J Hobbs	22	107	20.6	+£9.01	+8.4
G L Moore	12	60	20.0	-£6.25	-10.4
D Pipe	18	92	19.6	+£5.53	+6.0
T R George	13	67	19.4	+£1.83	+2.7
Miss Venetia Williams	37	193	19.2	-£35.65	-18.5
Miss H C Knight	9	50	18.0	+£9.87	+19.7
A King	19	109	17.4	-£20.67	-19.0
C J Mann	8	48	16.7	+£12.75	+26.6

 

Not a huge mass of positives, but digging deeper I noted the following:

• Venetia Williams has had an excellent record in non handicap chases thanks to 23 winners from 48 (SR 47.9%) for a healthy profit of £36.32 (ROI -75.7%);
• Nicky Richards too has done well in non handicaps with 10 wins from 22 (SR 44.5%) for a profit of £19.88 (ROI -90.4%);
• Jonjo O’Neill has saddled 8 winners from 16 (SR 50%) in novice chases for a profit of £9.41 (ROI +58.8%).

 

Let us now look at the trainers that have struggled in chases in February:

All chases (Feb 05-10) – 30 runs minimum (SR 7% or lower)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
B G Powell	4	58	6.9	-£40.17	-69.3
S Flook	2	32	6.3	-£9.00	-28.1
J Howard Johnson	4	71	5.6	-£59.00	-83.1
J A B Old	2	37	5.4	-£17.00	-46.0
J R Cornwall	2	46	4.4	-£23.00	-50.0
N R Mitchell	1	30	3.3	-£22.50	-75.0
R J Hodges	1	33	3.0	-£7.00	-21.2
R Dickin	1	35	2.9	-£20.00	-57.1

 

There is a massive shock to me here with Howard Johnson languishing with a strike rate of just 5.6%. Compare this to the January article/data, where he TOPPED the chase table with a strike rate in excess of 25%! I have to say, I am at a loss to explain this, but it is something we have to bear in mind.

Moving onto hurdle races now:

All hurdle races (Feb 05-10) – 40 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
N J Henderson	57	233	24.5	-£22.45	-9.6
P F Nicholls	48	211	22.8	-£33.98	-16.1
Miss Venetia Williams	37	182	20.3	+£14.91	+8.2
Mrs L Wadham	10	58	17.2	+£23.82	+41.1
C Grant	7	43	16.3	+£39.00	+90.7
A King	39	251	15.5	-£52.58	-21.0
Mrs A M Thorpe	10	65	15.4	+£25.98	+40.0
C L Tizzard	7	46	15.2	+£9.50	+20.7
M W Easterby	9	60	15.0	+£8.38	+14.0
Jonjo O'Neill	29	194	15.0	-£28.48	-14.7

 

Wadham, Grant and Thorpe have all done well from a limited number of runners. Venetia Williams who excelled in non handicap chases, has actually performed extremely well in handicap hurdles – a strike rate of over 20% is an excellent effort in these competitive events with profits equating to 42p in the £.

Finally let us move onto bumpers. Let us look at the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 18 bumper runners during this month over the 6-year period:

All bumper races (Feb 05-10) – 18 runs minimum

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
N J Henderson	14	35	40.0	+£11.31	+32.3
G A Swinbank	6	18	33.3	-£1.35	-7.5
N J Gifford	6	19	31.6	+£13.75	+72.4
P F Nicholls	8	32	25.0	-£8.21	-25.7
J M Jefferson	4	19	21.1	+£9.80	+51.6
M W Easterby	4	22	18.2	+£1.00	+4.6
A King	8	48	16.7	-£15.86	-33.0
J Howard Johnson	4	29	13.8	-£11.80	-40.7
D McCain Jnr	2	18	11.1	-£5.75	-31.9
H D Daly	2	20	10.0	-£10.00	-50.0
C L Tizzard	2	21	9.5	-£7.00	-33.3
K G Reveley	2	23	8.7	-£14.75	-64.1
P R Webber	2	26	7.7	-£9.00	-34.6
N A Twiston-Davies	1	25	4.0	+£1.00	+4.0
B G Powell	0	25	0.0	-£25.00	-100.0
J W Mullins	0	21	0.0	-£21.00	-100.0

 

As with Janaury Henderson is the man to follow, while Nick Gifford has a good record also.

February offers some interesting trainer stats, but perhaps they are not quite as strong / positive as in previous months. This may be down to the fact that many of the top trainers are focused on getting their runners to peak fitness next month for the Cheltenham festival. That is my educated guess anyway.