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February Trainers


 

 

February Trainers by David Renham

 

 

 

Each month I write an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of February with data taken from 2003 to 2009.

 

 

 

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

 

 

 

All races (Feb 03-09) – 60 runs minimum

 

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

P Nicholls

142

570

24.9

-£119.85

-21.0

N Henderson

87

375

23.2

-£0.23

-0.1

D Pipe

44

220

20.0

-£28.44

-12.9

F Doumen

12

60

20.0

+£20.90

+34.8

N Richards

34

174

19.5

-£35.13

-20.2

Miss V Williams

89

462

19.3

-£46.51

-10.1

L Lungo

24

132

18.2

-£29.70

-22.5

Mrs L Wadham

16

89

18.0

+£52.08

+58.5

D McCain Jnr

25

140

17.9

-£23.65

-16.9

V Dartnall

11

69

15.9

+£27.32

+39.6

G L Moore

43

272

15.8

+£13.21

+4.9

N Gifford

17

108

15.7

+£22.98

+21.3

O Sherwood

22

140

15.7

-£24.32

-17.4

A King

60

385

15.6

-£96.71

-25.1

R C Guest

24

161

14.9

+£43.75

+27.2

N Chance

11

74

14.9

-£17.80

-24.1

T George

25

175

14.3

-£19.73

-11.3

P Bowen

16

112

14.3

-£1.32

-1.2

P Hobbs

55

388

14.2

-£134.42

-34.7

J O'Neill

59

435

13.6

-£139.80

-32.1

N Twiston-Davies

45

336

13.4

-£33.28

-9.9

J Howard Johnson

42

315

13.3

-£124.08

-39.4

 

 

 

It is no surprise to see a decent strike rate from Paul Nicholls, but backing all his runners ‘blind’ would have still quite a loss. Nicky Henderson has a similar strike rate to Nicholls but has virtually broken even to SP which is impressive. Having said that 2009 saw Henderson underperform dramatically with losses equating to 60%!! French trainer Francois Doumen sends is a regular visitor this time of the year – he often targets Hayodck and Sandown and of course he often gives his Cheltenham runners one last spin before the festival.

 

 

 

Lucy Wadham is a lesser known trainer, but she has made a profit in 5 of the 7 Februarys while breaking even in one of the other years. Her runners could be a bit of value this month. All in all her 16 winners have been split between 13 horses which is another good sign.

 

 

 

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the  season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in February since 2003:

 

 

 

All chases (Nov 00-08) – 30 runs minimum

 

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

P Nicholls

82

289

28.4

-£49.30

-17.1

R C Guest

18

66

27.3

+£84.45

+128.0

D McCain Jnr

13

50

26.0

-£1.78

-3.6

N Richards

11

43

25.6

+£1.50

+3.5

M Todhunter

7

30

23.3

+£9.25

+30.8

G L Moore

13

56

23.2

+£3.40

+6.1

N Henderson

23

103

22.3

-£14.35

-13.9

D Pipe

17

77

22.1

+£21.03

+27.3

O Sherwood

9

41

22.0

-£0.43

-1.1

T George

17

78

21.8

+£14.83

+19.0

L Lungo

8

38

21.1

+£1.74

+4.6

Miss V Williams

43

224

19.2

-£32.67

-14.6

P Hobbs

23

129

17.8

-£18.66

-14.5

H Daly

15

87

17.2

-£30.94

-35.6

P Bowen

7

41

17.1

+£5.23

+12.8

Miss H Knight

12

76

15.8

-£10.87

-14.3

D Keane

5

32

15.6

-£2.70

-8.4

A King

15

98

15.3

-£45.40

-46.3

N Twiston-Davies

21

143

14.7

-£10.85

-7.6

 

 

 

Richard Guest has a very good overall record, but it should be noted that his more recent record (’07-’09) has seen limited runners and no winners. David Pipe has done well with his chasers in this month and take special note of his handicappers. In addition when saddling the favourite his strike rate has exceeded 50%. Gary Moore also does well with his handicappers and his novices.

 

 

 

Tom George is a trainer to keep on the right side of in February chases especially when restricting qualifiers to horses from the top 4 of the betting. With these runners he has saddled 16 winners from 50 (SR 32%) for a profit of £31.83 (ROI +63.7%).

 

 

 

Let us now move to hurdle races:

 

 

 

All hurdle races (Feb 03-08)

 

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

F Doumen

8

37

21.6

+£25.03

+67.7

G Swinbank

7

33

21.2

+£19.27

+58.4

P Nicholls

51

244

20.9

-£68.18

-27.9

N Henderson

48

231

20.8

-£7.66

-3.3

Miss V Williams

44

223

19.7

-£8.34

-3.7

N King

6

34

17.7

-£1.18

-3.5

N Richards

20

116

17.2

-£35.96

-31.0

D Pipe

22

134

16.4

-£58.98

-44.0

Mrs L Wadham

10

63

15.9

+£24.07

+38.2

R Lee

6

38

15.8

+£11.07

+29.1

A King

37

239

15.5

-£63.95

-26.8

N Gifford

10

66

15.2

+£21.48

+32.5

M Easterby

11

75

14.7

+£1.25

+1.7

C Tizzard

6

41

14.6

+£12.40

+30.2

G L Moore

29

202

14.4

+£19.81

+9.8

T Easterby

7

49

14.3

-£9.42

-19.2

J O'Neill

37

265

14.0

-£71.66

-27.0

Mrs S Smith

16

117

13.7

-£12.67

-10.8

 

 

 

As stated earlier, it is useful to split your data into race types. This is neatly demonstrated by comparing David Pipe’s chase record to his hurdle one – a difference of 6% in terms of strike rate and in chases his returns have been +27.3% while in hurdles it is a disappointing -44%. Venetia Williams has produced a small loss overall with her hurdlers, but her handicappers have shown a profit and the market tends to be a good guide so stick with the top 3 in the betting.

 

 

 

All in all there seems to be some useful data here and hopefully you will find it helpful to your betting this month.

 

 

 

 

 

Each month I write an article based on past trainer performance over a particular month. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of February with data taken from 2003 to 2009.

 

 

 

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

 

 

 

All races (Feb 03-09) – 60 runs minimum

 

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

P Nicholls

142

570

24.9

-£119.85

-21.0

N Henderson

87

375

23.2

-£0.23

-0.1

D Pipe

44

220

20.0

-£28.44

-12.9

F Doumen

12

60

20.0

+£20.90

+34.8

N Richards

34

174

19.5

-£35.13

-20.2

Miss V Williams

89

462

19.3

-£46.51

-10.1

L Lungo

24

132

18.2

-£29.70

-22.5

Mrs L Wadham

16

89

18.0

+£52.08

+58.5

D McCain Jnr

25

140

17.9

-£23.65

-16.9

V Dartnall

11

69

15.9

+£27.32

+39.6

G L Moore

43

272

15.8

+£13.21

+4.9

N Gifford

17

108

15.7

+£22.98

+21.3

O Sherwood

22

140

15.7

-£24.32

-17.4

A King

60

385

15.6

-£96.71

-25.1

R C Guest

24

161

14.9

+£43.75

+27.2

N Chance

11

74

14.9

-£17.80

-24.1

T George

25

175

14.3

-£19.73

-11.3

P Bowen

16

112

14.3

-£1.32

-1.2

P Hobbs

55

388

14.2

-£134.42

-34.7

J O'Neill

59

435

13.6

-£139.80

-32.1

N Twiston-Davies

45

336

13.4

-£33.28

-9.9

J Howard Johnson

42

315

13.3

-£124.08

-39.4

 

 

 

It is no surprise to see a decent strike rate from Paul Nicholls, but backing all his runners ‘blind’ would have still quite a loss. Nicky Henderson has a similar strike rate to Nicholls but has virtually broken even to SP which is impressive. Having said that 2009 saw Henderson underperform dramatically with losses equating to 60%!! French trainer Francois Doumen sends is a regular visitor this time of the year – he often targets Hayodck and Sandown and of course he often gives his Cheltenham runners one last spin before the festival.

 

 

 

Lucy Wadham is a lesser known trainer, but she has made a profit in 5 of the 7 Februarys while breaking even in one of the other years. Her runners could be a bit of value this month. All in all her 16 winners have been split between 13 horses which is another good sign.

 

 

 

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the  season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in February since 2003:

 

 

 

All chases (Nov 00-08) – 30 runs minimum

 

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

P Nicholls

82

289

28.4

-£49.30

-17.1

R C Guest

18

66

27.3

+£84.45

+128.0

D McCain Jnr

13

50

26.0

-£1.78

-3.6

N Richards

11

43

25.6

+£1.50

+3.5

M Todhunter

7

30

23.3

+£9.25

+30.8

G L Moore

13

56

23.2

+£3.40

+6.1

N Henderson

23

103

22.3

-£14.35

-13.9

D Pipe

17

77

22.1

+£21.03

+27.3

O Sherwood

9

41

22.0

-£0.43

-1.1

T George

17

78

21.8

+£14.83

+19.0

L Lungo

8

38

21.1

+£1.74

+4.6

Miss V Williams

43

224

19.2

-£32.67

-14.6

P Hobbs

23

129

17.8

-£18.66

-14.5

H Daly

15

87

17.2

-£30.94

-35.6

P Bowen

7

41

17.1

+£5.23

+12.8

Miss H Knight

12

76

15.8

-£10.87

-14.3

D Keane

5

32

15.6

-£2.70

-8.4

A King

15

98

15.3

-£45.40

-46.3

N Twiston-Davies

21

143

14.7

-£10.85

-7.6

 

 

 

Richard Guest has a very good overall record, but it should be noted that his more recent record (’07-’09) has seen limited runners and no winners. David Pipe has done well with his chasers in this month and take special note of his handicappers. In addition when saddling the favourite his strike rate has exceeded 50%. Gary Moore also does well with his handicappers and his novices.

 

 

 

Tom George is a trainer to keep on the right side of in February chases especially when restricting qualifiers to horses from the top 4 of the betting. With these runners he has saddled 16 winners from 50 (SR 32%) for a profit of £31.83 (ROI +63.7%).

 

 

 

Let us now move to hurdle races:

 

 

 

All hurdle races (Feb 03-08)

 

 

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

F Doumen

8

37

21.6

+£25.03

+67.7

G Swinbank

7

33

21.2

+£19.27

+58.4

P Nicholls

51

244

20.9

-£68.18

-27.9

N Henderson

48

231

20.8

-£7.66

-3.3

Miss V Williams

44

223

19.7

-£8.34

-3.7

N King

6

34

17.7

-£1.18

-3.5

N Richards

20

116

17.2

-£35.96

-31.0

D Pipe

22

134

16.4

-£58.98

-44.0

Mrs L Wadham

10

63

15.9

+£24.07

+38.2

R Lee

6

38

15.8

+£11.07

+29.1

A King

37

239

15.5

-£63.95

-26.8

N Gifford

10

66

15.2

+£21.48

+32.5

M Easterby

11

75

14.7

+£1.25

+1.7

C Tizzard

6

41

14.6

+£12.40

+30.2

G L Moore

29

202

14.4

+£19.81

+9.8

T Easterby

7

49

14.3

-£9.42

-19.2

J O'Neill

37

265

14.0

-£71.66

-27.0

Mrs S Smith

16

117

13.7

-£12.67

-10.8

 

 

 

As stated earlier, it is useful to split your data into race types. This is neatly demonstrated by comparing David Pipe’s chase record to his hurdle one – a difference of 6% in terms of strike rate and in chases his returns have been +27.3% while in hurdles it is a disappointing -44%. Venetia Williams has produced a small loss overall with her hurdlers, but her handicappers have shown a profit and the market tends to be a good guide so stick with the top 3 in the betting.

 

 

 

All in all there seems to be some useful data here and hopefully you will find it helpful to your betting this month.

 

 

 

 








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