Draw Bias Revisited

This article goes back to my roots – draw bias in uk horse racing.

My initial foray into horse racing research and how I started out earning my reputation way back in 2001, was a detailed home published book into Draw Bias.

You may download a free pdf copy of that book here ==> draw bias research

It is a good primer into draw bias but remember the stats within are now about ten years out of date.

With the flat season soon to be in full swing, I have decided to update my draw figures and I will share with you some of my findings. For the recent part of this research I have chosen the period from 1^st January 2008 to 20^th July 2010 and I have only considered handicap races with 9 runners or more and have split the runners into “thirds”. Hence in a 12-runner race, draws 1 to 4 would lie in the bottom “third”, draws 5 to 8 in the middle “third”, and draws 9 to 12 in the top “third”. On a completely fair course the winning percentages for each third should be around 33% and, while some courses hover around that figure, others clearly do not. For comparison purposes I have also looked at the period from 2005 to 2007 to see what changes have taken place (if any).

This article continues with detail and research into five of the most draw biased tracks and distances.