Articles >> horse-racing >>

Draw Bias 2013


 

Draw Bias – 2013

 

This article goes back to my roots – draw bias. With the flat season now in full swing, I have decided to update my draw figures and I will share with you some of my findings. For this research I have chosen to look at the last five full seasons – 2008 to 2012. I have restricted the research to turf courses, but have looked at Irish courses as well as UK ones.  

 

I have only considered handicap races with 9 runners or more and have split the runners into “thirds”. Hence in a 15-runner race, draws 1 to 5 would lie in the bottom “third”, draws 6 to 10 in the middle “third”, and draws 11 to 15 in the top “third”. On a completely fair course the winning percentages for each third should be around 33% and, while some courses hover around that figure, others clearly do not. I have looked separately at both win stats and placed stats. My focus in terms of distance has been 5 to 7 furlong handicaps. Let’s have a look in more detail at some of my findings:

 

5 furlongs (14 races or more to qualify)

 

Course

Low Win%

Mid Win%

High Win%

Low Place%

Mid Place%

High Place%

Ascot

22.2

25.9

51.9

27

32.6

40.4

Ayr

50

28.6

21.4

39.7

33.1

27.2

Bath

12.1

30.3

57.6

17.5

32

50.5

Beverley

44

32.1

23.8

38.7

34.5

26.8

Brighton

21.4

50

28.6

34.9

32.6

32.6

Carlisle

34.6

30.8

34.6

34.2

36.7

29.1

Catterick

46.4

23.2

30.4

36.9

34.5

28.6

Chepstow

30

45

25

27.9

41

31.1

Chester

63.6

22.7

13.6

54.5

33.3

12.1

Doncaster

29

32.3

38.7

32.7

30.8

36.4

Epsom

42.9

28.6

28.6

29.8

34

36.2

Goodwood

40

44

16

46.2

30.8

23.1

Hamilton

32.4

27

40.5

32.4

28.8

38.7

Haydock

24.3

43.2

32.4

30.4

41.7

27.8

Leicester

36.8

52.6

10.5

39.7

34.5

25.

9

Musselburgh

28.6

36.9

34.5

29.4

30.6

40.1

Navan

55.6

33.3

11.1

37.7

36.1

26.2

Newbury

47.1

29.4

23.5

41.2

29.4

29.4

Newcastle

41.7

22.2

36.1

34.3

34.3

31.5

Newmarket

28

36

36

32.5

32.5

35.1

Nottingham

30.3

37.9

31.8

28.4

36.5

35.1

Pontefract

35.3

47.1

17.6

48.6

29.5

21.9

Redcar

50

27.5

22.5

43.7

34.1

22.2

Ripon

33.3

25

41.7

31.1

33.8

35.1

Sandown

52.3

27.3

20.5

50.4

26.3

23.3

Thirsk

34.1

22

43.9

33.6

26.9

39.6

Windsor

23.3

33.3

43.3

39.6

28.6

31.9

Yarmouth

25

35

40

28.3

26.7

45

York

42.1

28.9

28.9

45.4

26.2

28.5

 

What is clear from this first table is that draw bias is less prevalent than it was 10 years ago. Having said that there are some biases over 5 furlongs still worth noting:

 

Bath – high draws definitely have the advantage here. Considering the runners have a left hand bend to negotiate one may have expected lower draws to hold the advantage. However, I think it is simply a case of the lower drawn runners going off too quick and failing to get home.

 

Beverley – this used to have arguably the strongest draw bias in the country but clearly the Beverley ground-staff have done something to help even it out. Horses close to the far rail (low) do still have an edge but it is not that strong.

 

Catterick – lower draws do have an edge which seems to become stronger on firmer ground. In races over on good to firm or further the bottom two draws have provided the winner in 9 of the 19 races. There seems to be no bias on ground softer than good.

 

Chester – the configuration of the track means that low draws have a huge advantage. This bias is well known but still it is possible to use it to our advantage.

 

Goodwood – a bias against higher draws here. The reason being that the ground centre to far side is usually quicker than the ground under the stands’ rail (high).

 

Pontefract – higher draws really struggle here winning around halve as often as they statistically should.

 

Redcar – there seems to be a low draw bias here (although it is not replicated over 6f). Both the win and the placed stats indicate that low draws have a clear edge over higher draws.The sample of 40 races is quite a decent sample too. 

 

Sandown – a strong low draw bias here. It seems to have strengthened again in recent years after levelling out around 7-8 years ago.

 

 

6 furlongs (14 races or more to qualify)

 

Course

Low Win%

Mid Win%

High Win%

Low Place%

Mid Place%

High Place%

Ascot

37.1

31.4

31.4

34.8

31.3

33.9

Ayr

43.5

25.8

30.6

35.1

30.7

34.2

Bath *

37.3

32.8

29.9

29.1

36.9

34

Brighton

29.7

40.5

29.7

33

33.9

33

Carlisle

16.7

41.7

41.7

33.3

35.1

31.6

Catterick

36.1

25

38.9

37

27.8

35.2

Chepstow

26.1

37

37

32.9

36.4

30.8

Chester

45.5

40.9

13.6

48.5

28.8

22.7

Curragh

24.3

35.1

40.5

30.8

32.3

36.9

Doncaster

31

25.9

43.1

28.8

34.1

37.1

Epsom

42.9

21.4

35.7

35.6

33.3

31.1

Goodwood

45.9

41

13.1

43

38.9

18.1

Hamilton

29.2

30.6

40.3

26.8

34.5

38.6

Haydock

22.2

41.3

36.5

29.5

38.5

32

Leicester

53.3

22.2

24.4

40.4

36.2

23.4

Lingfield

13.3

20

66.7

27.7

25.5

46.8

Naas

38.1

28.6

33.3

33.8

21.6

44.6

Newbury

56.3

31.3

12.5

41.2

37.3

21.6

Newcastle

16.7

35.2

48.1

29

31.4

39.6

Newmarket

39.4

28.7

31.9

39.3

29.7

31

Nottingham

26.5

46.9

26.5

28.9

33.6

37.5

Pontefract

35.1

35.1

29.8

41.1

29.7

29.1

Redcar

39.3

32.1

28.6

35.7

34.6

29.7

Ripon

38.9

29.6

31.5

33.9

32.2

33.9

Salisbury

38.2

23.5

38.2

39.4

30.3

30.3

Thirsk

20.4

34.7

44.9

24.1

28.5

47.5

Warwick

42.1

39.5

18.4

40.8

32.5

26.7

Windsor

36.7

27.8

35.4

31.8

32.2

36

Yarmouth

46.2

21.2

32.7

39.5

31.2

29.3

York

21.3

29.8

48.9

32.1

33.3

34.5

* Bath – distance at the track is 5f 161yds which is closer to 6f than 5.

 

Chester – lower draws do not enjoy the same advantage as they do over 5f, but it is still a case of the lower the better. Higher draws continue to find it very tough to win.

 

Goodwood – a bias against higher draws once again. Same reason as over 5f due to slower ground under the stands’ rail.

 

Leicester – the stats indicate lower draws have a solid edge. A decent sample size of 45 races too. Over 5f higher draws struggled so it does seem likely that it is much better to be drawn low rather than high.

 

Lingfield – a strong high draw bias over this 6f trip. The ground nearest the high rail is definitely quicker.

 

Thirsk – the win and placed stats indicate high draws have a tangible edge. Thirsk used to display a very strong straight course bias to high numbers which is clearly not as strong now.

 

 

7 furlongs (14 races or more to qualify)

 

Course

Low Win%

Mid Win%

High Win%

Low Place%

Mid Place%

High Place%

Ascot

34.9

30.2

34.9

35.9

31.4

32.7

Ayr

32

34

34

29.3

39.3

31.3

Beverley

38.9

33.3

27.8

36.4

33.9

29.7

Brighton

39.6

34

26.4

32.3

37.3

30.4

Carlisle

35

35

30

45

26.7

28.3

Catterick

34.7

28.6

36.7

36.4

29.3

34.4

Chepstow

37

37

25.9

35.7

31

33.3

Chester

43.3

40

16.7

42.2

30

27.8

Curragh

43.3

23.3

33.3

38.5

28.4

33

Doncaster

37.8

40.2

22

32.6

39.3

28.1

Down Royal

31.3

25

43.8

39.6

31.3

29.2

Epsom

17.2

41.4

41.4

25.3

37.9

36.8

Fairyhouse

37.5

18.8

43.8

39

30.5

30.5

Galway

53.3

26.7

20

46.9

32.7

20.4

Goodwood

31

40.5

28.6

36.8

35.3

27.8

Gowran Park

45

35

20

50

25

25

Haydock

41.2

11.8

47.1

38.5

26.9

34.6

Leicester

38.7

29

32.3

38.7

28.9

32.5

Leopardstown

28.6

35.7

35.7

34

35

31

Lingfield

13.5

29.7

56.8

20

34.8

45.2

Musselburgh

37.7

27.9

34.4

40.2

32.1

27.7

Naas

47.4

15.8

36.8

38.1

28.6

33.3

Newbury

32.7

40.8

26.5

42.9

33.1

24

Newcastle

10

28.3

61.7

24.2

33.5

42.3

Newmarket

32.3

34.4

33.3

34.5

31.6

33.9

Redcar

25.8

29

45.2

32.7

31.7

35.6

Roscommon

34.6

38.5

26.9

41

33.3

25.6

Salisbury

39

34.1

26.8

31.5

33.1

35.4

Sandown

46.2

42.3

11.5

38

31.6

30.4

Thirsk

30.2

47.2

22.6

33.3

41.4

25.3

Tipperary

25

50

25

40.3

33.8

26

Warwick

31.3

31.3

37.5

34

38.1

27.8

Yarmouth

35.3

33.8

30.9

38.3

33.5

28.2

York

31

37.9

31

37

36

27

 

Chester – high draws struggle as low to middle tend to dominate.

 

Galway – only 15 races so the stats are limited. Possibility a bias towards lower numbers though.

 

Lingfield – high draws dominate over this trip as they do over 6f. The bias is perhaps not as strong over 7f but it certainly is one of the stronger biases around.

 

Newcastle – high draws seemed to have a strong edge here with lower draws really struggling. A big sample of 60 races gives confidence in the figures. High draws seem to have a small edge over 6f as well.

 

Sandown – the win stats suggest a bias against higher draws. The place stats do not back that up so I would not be too dogmatic that the bias is that significant.

 

The good news for draw punters is that biases still exist, but the bad news is they are becoming few and far between. In addition, many of the stronger biases from the past are starting to diminish. Of course, changing biases can work in our favour as well especially if punters fail to take account of the changes. For example, if they continue to believe that the 5f rail far bias at Beverley is as strong as ever, then the high drawn runners will start at inflated prices meaning we are getting value elsewhere. As one avenue closes, another opens .........
 

 








Free Registration
 
Systems
Free Horse Racing System
 
 
Racing Research
Racing Report Vault
 
Flat Racing Trainer Report
 
Horse Racing Research Articles
 
Bookmakers & Odds
Bookmakers and Free Bets
 
Odds Comparison
 
Top Link Partners


 

Copyright PunterProfits.com