One perennial problem punters have is to determine whether a market move for a horse is worth noting or not.

From a research perspective this is also difficult to get the desired information. Ideally to carry out this type of research we would need every single opening board price so that we can compare it with the respective SP. This information is not readily available (to my knowledge) and hence we need to think of an alternative approach. The best idea I could come up with was to compare forecast price with SP price. At least this would give me a fairly good idea of how horses fared when their SP was significantly lower than their forecast price.

In this article I examine certain trainers and use past statisics to try and determine whether "gambles" or market moves on their horses are an indication to a time to profitably back.