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December Trainers 2013


 

December Trainers by David Renham

 

Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and in this article I am looking at National Hunt trainer performance in December over the past five seasons (2008 to 2012). The NH season really starts to step up a gear in December as trainers start to send out some of their big guns. Profits and losses in this article have been calculated to £1 level stakes to SP. I have combined UK and Irish data.

 

All races – a look at all races first. Have placed the trainers in alphabetical order and used a minimum of 50 races:

 

Trainer

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Alner, R H & Mrs S

55

3

5.5

-£25.00

-45.5

Bailey, K C

116

18

15.5

+£4.00

+3.4

Bailey, Mrs Caroline

56

8

14.3

+£31.08

+55.5

Berry, J A

58

2

3.4

-£16.00

-27.6

Best, Jim

57

8

14.0

-£25.02

-43.9

Bowen, P

106

7

6.6

-£41.87

-39.5

Brady, Patrick O

74

2

2.7

-£66.12

-89.4

Bromhead, Henry De

100

15

15.0

-£27.99

-28.0

Buckler, R H

88

7

8.0

-£14.50

-16.5

Burke, W J

71

6

8.5

-£25.25

-35.6

Byrnes, C

102

18

17.6

+£49.40

+48.4

Candlish, Jennie

73

5

6.8

-£49.00

-67.1

Carroll, A W

98

6

6.1

-£16.50

-16.8

Curtis, Miss Rebecca

77

12

15.6

-£17.72

-23.0

Daly, H D

125

13

10.4

-£32.60

-26.1

Dartnall, V R A

76

9

11.8

-£33.69

-44.3

Dickin, R

62

3

4.8

-£56.18

-90.6

Down, C J

64

5

7.8

-£17.75

-27.7

Doyle, Miss Elizabeth

55

5

9.1

-£25.25

-45.9

Easterby, M W

68

6

8.8

-£20.50

-30.1

Easterby, T D

57

5

8.8

-£28.75

-50.4

Elliott, Gordon

184

27

14.7

-£17.62

-9.6

Ellison, B

96

12

12.5

-£39.29

-40.9

Evans, P D

59

6

10.2

-£18.64

-31.6

Ewart, J P L

69

6

8.7

-£43.79

-63.5

Fenton, Philip

68

7

10.3

-£44.47

-65.4

Flood, F

96

9

9.4

-£25.00

-26.0

George, T R

137

17

12.4

-£29.86

-21.8

Gifford, N J

95

4

4.2

-£80.95

-85.2

Goldie, J S

61

3

4.9

-£42.67

-70.0

Gordon, C

67

6

9.0

+£0.00

+0.0

Grant, C

104

6

5.8

-£27.62

-26.6

Greatrex, W J

78

9

11.5

-£20.42

-26.2

Hales, A M

76

3

3.9

-£60.25

-79.3

Hammond, Micky

74

6

8.1

-£17.12

-23.1

Hanlon, John Joseph

133

12

9.0

-£67.05

-50.4

Harrington, Mrs John

229

16

7.0

-£137.94

-60.2

Harty, Edward P

50

3

6.0

-£36.75

-73.5

Hawke, N J

65

4

6.2

-£32.12

-49.4

Henderson, N J

373

105

28.2

+£30.44

+8.2

Hobbs, P J

320

53

16.6

-£50.67

-15.8

Hodges, R J

59

3

5.1

-£32.25

-54.7

Hourigan, Michael

116

8

6.9

-£68.79

-59.3

Hughes, D T

248

13

5.2

-£170.44

-68.7

Jefferson, J M

88

14

15.9

+£8.72

+9.9

Keevil, Mrs Caroline

64

7

10.9

+£7.50

+11.7

Keighley, M

103

11

10.7

-£29.62

-28.8

Kiely, John E

57

7

12.3

-£30.10

-52.8

King, A

392

59

15.1

-£65.08

-16.6

King, N B

107

13

12.1

+£19.50

+18.2

Knight, Miss H C

99

4

4.0

-£29.50

-29.8

Lambe, J J

68

4

5.9

-£22.50

-33.1

Lavelle, Miss E C

127

16

12.6

-£45.77

-36.0

Lee, R

75

17

22.7

+£85.71

+114.3

Longsdon, C E

157

23

14.6

+£20.13

+12.8

Mangan, James Joseph

56

6

10.7

-£22.87

-40.8

Mann, C J

123

10

8.1

-£57.25

-46.5

Martin, A J

140

16

11.4

-£57.61

-41.2

McBratney, C A

54

5

9.3

+£0.08

+0.1

McCain Jnr, D

335

78

23.3

+£72.37

+21.6

McKiernan, Oliver

55

5

9.1

-£21.50

-39.1

McNamara, E

90

7

7.8

-£55.25

-61.4

McPherson, Graeme P

50

3

6.0

-£33.67

-67.3

Meade, Noel

252

40

15.9

-£36.49

-14.5

Moore, A L T

118

7

5.9

-£52.50

-44.5

Moore, G L

197

14

7.1

-£100.25

-50.9

Moore, G M

59

2

3.4

-£37.00

-62.7

Morris, M F

104

8

7.7

-£19.70

-18.9

Mulholland, N P

82

7

8.5

-£41.92

-51.1

Mullins, J W

91

4

4.4

-£38.50

-42.3

Mullins, Thomas

73

7

9.6

-£37.50

-51.4

Mullins, W P

357

104

29.1

-£97.21

-27.2

Murphy, C A

119

21

17.6

-£11.13

-9.4

Murphy, Ferdy

226

19

8.4

-£94.40

-41.8

Newland, Dr R D P

54

7

13.0

-£11.50

-21.3

Nicholls, P F

376

87

23.1

-£59.79

-15.9

Nolan, Paul

118

12

10.2

-£46.52

-39.4

O’Dwyer, Conor

61

3

4.9

-£49.60

-81.3

O’Grady, E J

193

24

12.4

-£92.94

-48.2

O’Neill, Jonjo

387

57

14.7

-£47.15

-12.2

Phillips, R T

96

4

4.2

-£36.50

-38.0

Pipe, D E

343

50

14.6

-£61.75

-18.0

Powell, B G

160

17

10.6

-£2.79

-1.7

Reveley, K G

117

18

15.4

+£60.75

+51.9

Richards, N G

90

13

14.4

-£11.89

-13.2

Roche, C

63

4

6.3

-£50.25

-79.8

Rothwell, P J

188

8

4.3

-£130.20

-69.3

Rowe, R

60

3

5.0

-£37.42

-62.4

Russell, Miss Lucinda V

152

15

9.9

-£50.92

-33.5

Sayer, Mrs Dianne

52

1

1.9

-£31.00

-59.6

Scott, J

63

8

12.7

-£21.99

-34.9

Scudamore, M J

50

0

0.0

-£50.00

-100.0

Sherwood, O

106

14

13.2

+£0.39

+0.4

Smith, Mrs S J

206

19

9.2

-£55.14

-26.8

Swan, C F

106

10

9.4

-£63.29

-59.7

Swinbank, G A

65

6

9.2

-£51.29

-78.9

Taaffe, T J

66

7

10.6

-£35.63

-54.0

Tizzard, C L

172

13

7.6

-£76.81

-44.7

Todhunter, M

60

6

10.0

-£16.25

-27.1

Turnell, Andrew

69

2

2.9

-£50.00

-72.5

Twiston-Davies, N A

339

29

8.6

-£164.79

-48.6

Tyner, Robert

94

15

16.0

-£3.45

-3.7

Vaughan, Tim

208

32

15.4

-£41.95

-20.2

Wade, J

86

10

11.6

-£38.37

-44.6

Wadham, Mrs L

68

10

14.7

+£19.26

+28.3

Walford, T D

60

6

10.0

-£25.00

-41.7

Walsh, John J

78

9

11.5

+£2.25

+2.9

Walton, Mrs K

51

6

11.8

+£20.00

+39.2

Webber, P R

108

15

13.9

+£6.40

+5.9

Williams, Evan

186

18

9.7

-£78.61

-42.3

Williams, Ian

89

6

6.7

-£61.38

-69.0

Williams, Miss Venetia

317

39

12.3

-£90.32

-28.5

Williams, Nick

85

22

25.9

+£15.45

+18.2

 

There are 3 trainers that are worth further investigation IMO – Nicky Henderson, Nick Williams and Donald McCain. All have decent strike rates and all have made a profit when combining the last 5 Decembers. Henderson has made a profit in 3 of the 5 Decembers and has had a strike rate of 24% or more in 4 of the 5. He has a great record at Kempton in this month achieving 21 winners from 62 (SR 33.9%) for a profit of £50.44 (ROI +81.4%). All bar one of his winners have been priced 12/1 or less so it looks best to concentrate on the more fancied runners. Indeed his favourites have produced a 50% strike rate producing returns of just over 12%. The best area of focus looks to be horses that have been off the track for more than 5 months – well over 150 days to be precise. They have an outstanding record with 40 wins from 101 (SR 39.6%) for a healthy profit of £83.45 (ROI +82.6%). These runners have shown a profit in each of the last 5 years.

 

Nick Williams runs far fewer runners than Henderson but his record is still solid. Focusing on horses from the top four of the betting only he has produced 22 winners from 62 (SR 35.5%) for a profit of £38.45 (ROI +62%). He also has a good record in novice races – chase he is 5 wins from 12; hurdle races he is 6 wins from 15. Both have produced a profit.

 

Donald Mc Cain has had two especially good Decembers – 2008 and 2012 where he made decent profits. From 2009 to 2011 he performed well but made a loss. Mc Cain has a good strike rate at both Haydock and Catterick (32%) and hence any December runners at these venues are worth a second glance. He has a solid looking record in all race types, but one interesting area of success has been with horses that ran well LTO. Horses that finished in the first three LTO have produced an impressive 53 winners from 158 runners (SR SR 33.5%) for a profit of £58.79 (ROI +37.2%).

 

 

Hurdle races – a look at hurdle races now. I have used a minimum of 40 races:

 

Trainer

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Bailey, K C

59

9

15.3

+£10.67

+18.1

Best, Jim

42

6

14.3

-£20.64

-49.1

Bowen, P

49

2

4.1

-£30.50

-62.2

Brady, Patrick O

56

2

3.6

-£48.12

-85.9

Bromhead, Henry De

56

6

10.7

-£22.08

-39.4

Burke, W J

49

6

12.2

-£3.25

-6.6

Byrnes, C

69

15

21.7

+£69.15

+100.2

Candlish, Jennie

49

5

10.2

-£25.00

-51.0

Carroll, A W

72

5

6.9

+£0.50

+0.7

Curtis, Miss Rebecca

47

7

14.9

-£11.35

-24.1

Daly, H D

55

6

10.9

-£2.02

-3.7

Dickin, R

41

2

4.9

-£37.43

-91.3

Down, C J

44

3

6.8

-£10.25

-23.3

Easterby, M W

40

4

10.0

-£15.00

-37.5

Elliott, Gordon

125

16

12.8

-£0.02

0.0

Ellison, B

72

9

12.5

-£28.67

-39.8

Fenton, Philip

44

3

6.8

-£34.10

-77.5

Flood, F

50

5

10.0

-£23.50

-47.0

George, T R

50

7

14.0

+£6.63

+13.3

Gifford, N J

46

2

4.3

-£41.70

-90.7

Goldie, J S

41

2

4.9

-£31.67

-77.2

Grant, C

65

4

6.2

-£23.62

-36.3

Greatrex, W J

40

5

12.5

-£15.42

-38.6

Hales, A M

46

1

2.2

-£38.50

-83.7

Hammond, Micky

50

5

10.0

+£4.50

+9.0

Hanlon, John Joseph

79

8

10.1

-£39.30

-49.7

Harrington, Mrs John

142

9

6.3

-£92.17

-64.9

Henderson, N J

212

59

27.8

+£33.59

+15.8

Hobbs, P J

169

27

16.0

-£43.87

-26.0

Hourigan, Michael

67

2

3.0

-£60.37

-90.1

Hughes, D T

151

10

6.6

-£91.19

-60.4

Keighley, M

50

6

12.0

+£0.00

+0.0

King, A

223

37

16.6

-£2.52

-1.1

King, N B

59

7

11.9

+£6.50

+11.0

Knight, Miss H C

40

1

2.5

-£14.00

-35.0

Lambe, J J

44

2

4.5

-£28.00

-63.6

Lavelle, Miss E C

77

9

11.7

-£30.77

-40.0

Llewellyn, B J

40

1

2.5

-£17.00

-42.5

Longsdon, C E

78

7

9.0

+£26.82

+34.4

Mann, C J

57

4

7.0

-£27.50

-48.2

Martin, A J

83

14

16.9

-£16.49

-19.9

McCain Jnr, D

204

43

21.1

+£29.62

+14.5

McNamara, E

62

4

6.5

-£41.00

-66.1

Meade, Noel

145

22

15.2

-£28.15

-19.4

Moore, A L T

51

2

3.9

-£39.75

-77.9

Moore, G L

112

9

8.0

-£53.25

-47.5

Morris, M F

62

5

8.1

-£9.70

-15.6

Mulholland, N P

44

5

11.4

-£19.67

-44.7

Mullins, J W

48

1

2.1

-£27.00

-56.3

Mullins, Thomas

43

4

9.3

-£15.00

-34.9

Mullins, W P

192

58

30.2

-£59.55

-31.0

Murphy, C A

58

12

20.7

+£10.51

+18.1

Murphy, Ferdy

68

6

8.8

-£34.09

-50.1

Nicholls, P F

166

37

22.3

-£32.62

-19.7

Nolan, Paul

63

5

7.9

-£40.25

-63.9

O’Grady, E J

114

19

16.7

-£29.05

-25.5

O’Neill, Jonjo

203

26

12.8

-£37.85

-18.6

Phillips, R T

64

1

1.6

-£57.00

-89.1

Pipe, D E

193

23

11.9

-£79.36

-41.1

Powell, B G

91

9

9.9

-£31.54

-34.7

Reveley, K G

48

8

16.7

+£8.75

+18.2

Richards, N G

47

8

17.0

+£6.78

+14.4

Roche, C

43

4

9.3

-£30.25

-70.3

Rothwell, P J

142

6

4.2

-£94.20

-66.3

Russell, Miss Lucinda V

75

5

6.7

-£22.87

-30.5

Sayer, Mrs Dianne

41

1

2.4

-£20.00

-48.8

Sherwood, O

61

8

13.1

+£4.56

+7.5

Smith, Mrs S J

70

4

5.7

-£19.00

-27.1

Swan, C F

68

6

8.8

-£39.29

-57.8

Taaffe, T J

46

5

10.9

-£23.88

-51.9

Tizzard, C L

50

4

8.0

-£13.06

-26.1

Twiston-Davies, N A

141

13

9.2

-£53.11

-37.7

Vaughan, Tim

131

20

15.3

-£12.84

-9.8

Walford, T D

42

5

11.9

-£10.75

-25.6

Walsh, John J

52

5

9.6

-£7.25

-13.9

Webber, P R

61

5

8.2

+£1.00

+1.6

Williams, Evan

108

7

6.5

-£79.94

-74.0

Williams, Ian

59

4

6.8

-£37.38

-63.4

Williams, Miss Venetia

156

10

6.4

-£91.42

-58.6

 

Chase races – chases next. 30 or more races to qualify:

 

Trainer

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Alner, R H & Mrs S

43

3

7.0

-£13.00

-30.2

Bailey, K C

46

8

17.4

-£4.17

-9.1

Bailey, Mrs Caroline

31

6

19.4

+£24.58

+79.3

Bowen, P

51

4

7.8

-£34.37

-67.4

Bromhead, Henry De

32

6

18.8

-£4.29

-13.4

Buckler, R H

47

6

12.8

+£18.50

+39.4

Daly, H D

58

7

12.1

-£18.58

-32.0

Dartnall, V R A

41

3

7.3

-£24.27

-59.2

Elliott, Gordon

52

8

15.4

-£16.65

-32.0

Ewart, J P L

36

3

8.3

-£22.27

-61.9

Flood, F

42

4

9.5

+£2.50

+6.0

George, T R

81

10

12.3

-£30.49

-37.6

Gifford, N J

40

1

2.5

-£33.00

-82.5

Gordon, C

28

4

14.3

+£20.00

+71.4

Grant, C

31

2

6.5

+£4.00

+12.9

Hanlon, John Joseph

26

2

7.7

-£10.25

-39.4

Harrington, Mrs John

53

4

7.5

-£28.27

-53.3

Hawke, N J

29

3

10.3

-£2.12

-7.3

Henderson, N J

127

37

29.1

+£1.10

+0.9

Hobbs, P J

133

21

15.8

-£20.80

-15.6

Hourigan, Michael

34

6

17.6

+£6.58

+19.4

Hughes, D T

80

2

2.5

-£66.75

-83.4

Jefferson, J M

36

7

19.4

+£38.75

+107.6

Keighley, M

44

5

11.4

-£20.62

-46.9

King, A

121

15

12.4

-£48.19

-39.8

King, N B

38

4

10.5

-£9.00

-23.7

Knight, Miss H C

41

2

4.9

-£23.50

-57.3

Lavelle, Miss E C

35

7

20.0

+£0.00

+0.0

Lee, R

50

11

22.0

+£52.83

+105.7

Longsdon, C E

66

12

18.2

-£10.24

-15.5

Mann, C J

58

4

6.9

-£30.00

-51.7

Martin, A J

47

1

2.1

-£44.12

-93.9

McCain Jnr, D

95

26

27.4

£21.34

22.5

McNamara, E

27

3

11.1

-£13.25

-49.1

Meade, Noel

82

12

14.6

-£4.32

-5.3

Moore, A L T

66

5

7.6

-£11.75

-17.8

Moore, G L

63

5

7.9

-£25.00

-39.7

Morris, M F

42

3

7.1

-£10.00

-23.8

Mulholland, N P

30

2

6.7

-£14.25

-47.5

Mullins, J W

28

2

7.1

-£13.50

-48.2

Mullins, W P

115

26

22.6

-£42.25

-36.7

Murphy, C A

43

8

18.6

-£6.89

-16.0

Murphy, Ferdy

136

12

8.8

-£51.31

-37.7

Nicholls, P F

183

44

24.0

-£24.84

-13.6

Nolan, Paul

39

6

15.4

-£3.27

-8.4

O’Grady, E J

66

4

6.1

-£54.39

-82.4

O’Neill, Jonjo

160

26

16.3

-£3.81

-2.4

Pipe, D E

121

19

15.7

-£27.77

-23.0

Powell, B G

52

5

9.6

+£26.50

+51.0

Reveley, K G

57

8

14.0

+£55.00

+96.5

Richards, N G

39

5

12.8

-£14.67

-37.6

Rothwell, P J

37

2

5.4

-£27.00

-73.0

Rowe, R

38

2

5.3

-£18.67

-49.1

Russell, Miss Lucinda V

68

9

13.2

-£40.05

-58.9

Sherwood, O

33

4

12.1

-£4.67

-14.2

Smith, Mrs S J

116

14

12.1

-£25.14

-21.7

Tizzard, C L

104

8

7.7

-£60.75

-58.4

Todhunter, M

31

4

12.9

-£3.00

-9.7

Turnell, Andrew

35

1

2.9

-£20.00

-57.1

Twiston-Davies, N A

172

15

8.7

-£88.93

-51.7

Tyner, Robert

43

5

11.6

-£15.50

-36.0

Vaughan, Tim

56

8

14.3

-£24.93

-44.5

Wade, J

46

8

17.4

-£5.37

-11.7

Webber, P R

35

10

28.6

+£17.40

+49.7

Williams, Evan

71

10

14.1

+£7.13

+10.0

Williams, Miss Venetia

147

28

19.0

+£10.60

+7.2

Williams, Nick

48

12

25.0

+£9.98

+20.8

 

Lots of data to get your teeth into and hopefully these stats will help pinpoint some good bets over the festive season.

 








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