December Trainers by David Renham
Each month, I write an article based on past trainer performance focusing on a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of December with data taken from 2007 to 2011.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined. I normally split the trainers up into good strike rates and poor ones, but this time I am giving you the full list! To qualify they would have needed to have at least 50 runners.
All races (Dec 07-11) – 50 runs minimum
|
Trainer
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
Strike Rate (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
Nicky Henderson
|
89
|
327
|
27.2
|
+£18.78
|
+5.7
|
|
Nick Williams
|
18
|
70
|
25.7
|
+£14.83
|
+21.2
|
|
Paul Nicholls
|
91
|
394
|
23.1
|
-£68.22
|
-17.3
|
|
Richard Lee
|
17
|
80
|
21.3
|
+£89.20
|
+111.5
|
|
Caroline Bailey
|
11
|
55
|
20.0
|
+£36.33
|
+66.1
|
|
Donald McCain
|
55
|
299
|
18.4
|
+£11.30
|
+3.8
|
|
Alan King
|
78
|
445
|
17.5
|
+£22.52
|
+5.1
|
|
Nicky Richards
|
16
|
95
|
16.8
|
-£25.09
|
-26.4
|
|
Jim Best
|
10
|
62
|
16.1
|
-£25.78
|
-41.6
|
|
Tim Vaughan
|
22
|
141
|
15.6
|
-£9.35
|
-6.6
|
|
Kim Bailey
|
16
|
103
|
15.5
|
+£9.79
|
+9.5
|
|
Philip Hobbs
|
56
|
362
|
15.5
|
-£64.51
|
-17.8
|
|
Dr Richard Newland
|
8
|
53
|
15.1
|
+£0.50
|
+0.9
|
|
Tim Walford
|
8
|
53
|
15.1
|
-£10.00
|
-18.9
|
|
Victor Dartnall
|
14
|
95
|
14.7
|
-£32.42
|
-34.1
|
|
Brian Ellison
|
9
|
62
|
14.5
|
-£18.27
|
-29.5
|
|
Milton Harris
|
8
|
56
|
14.3
|
+£35.75
|
+63.8
|
|
Keith Reveley
|
17
|
120
|
14.2
|
+£60.98
|
+50.8
|
|
David Pipe
|
47
|
333
|
14.1
|
-£3.12
|
-0.9
|
|
Lucy Wadham
|
10
|
76
|
13.2
|
+£6.88
|
+9.1
|
|
Venetia Williams
|
41
|
318
|
12.9
|
-£62.64
|
-19.7
|
|
Colin Tizzard
|
20
|
159
|
12.6
|
-£19.31
|
-12.1
|
|
Paul Webber
|
15
|
120
|
12.5
|
-£13.36
|
-11.1
|
|
Jonjo O'Neill
|
43
|
353
|
12.2
|
-£118.57
|
-33.6
|
|
John Wade
|
9
|
74
|
12.2
|
-£24.88
|
-33.6
|
|
Charlie Longsdon
|
15
|
124
|
12.1
|
+£20.11
|
+16.2
|
|
Jennie Candlish
|
6
|
50
|
12.0
|
-£9.00
|
-18.0
|
|
Neil King
|
12
|
101
|
11.9
|
+£7.00
|
+6.9
|
|
Tom George
|
16
|
136
|
11.8
|
-£25.24
|
-18.6
|
|
Rebecca Curtis
|
6
|
52
|
11.5
|
-£17.43
|
-33.5
|
|
Brendan Powell
|
22
|
192
|
11.5
|
-£18.01
|
-9.4
|
|
Lucinda Russell
|
15
|
132
|
11.4
|
-£10.65
|
-8.1
|
|
Sue Smith
|
25
|
224
|
11.2
|
-£51.85
|
-23.2
|
|
David Evans
|
6
|
54
|
11.1
|
-£13.65
|
-25.3
|
|
Caroline Keevil
|
6
|
55
|
10.9
|
+£13.50
|
+24.6
|
|
Oliver Sherwood
|
12
|
111
|
10.8
|
-£0.38
|
-0.4
|
|
Chris Gordon
|
6
|
58
|
10.3
|
+£9.00
|
+15.5
|
|
Emma Lavelle
|
13
|
128
|
10.2
|
-£60.52
|
-47.3
|
|
Ferdy Murphy
|
25
|
247
|
10.1
|
-£75.67
|
-30.6
|
|
Evan Williams
|
19
|
190
|
10.0
|
-£80.95
|
-42.6
|
|
Malcolm Jefferson
|
9
|
90
|
10.0
|
-£12.55
|
-13.9
|
|
Warren Greatrex
|
5
|
50
|
10.0
|
-£23.17
|
-46.3
|
|
James Ewart
|
5
|
51
|
9.8
|
-£24.15
|
-47.4
|
|
Martin Todhunter
|
7
|
72
|
9.7
|
-£20.75
|
-28.8
|
|
Gary Moore
|
21
|
218
|
9.6
|
-£87.25
|
-40.0
|
|
Charlie Mann
|
13
|
141
|
9.2
|
-£66.75
|
-47.3
|
|
Henry Daly
|
14
|
153
|
9.2
|
-£51.61
|
-33.7
|
|
Martin Keighley
|
8
|
88
|
9.1
|
-£1.38
|
-1.6
|
|
Micky Hammond
|
7
|
78
|
9.0
|
-£17.88
|
-22.9
|
|
Jim Old
|
5
|
59
|
8.5
|
+£17.75
|
+30.1
|
|
Neil Mulholland
|
5
|
65
|
7.7
|
-£35.67
|
-54.9
|
|
Nigel Twiston-Davies
|
27
|
355
|
7.6
|
-£184.00
|
-51.8
|
|
George Moore
|
5
|
66
|
7.6
|
-£5.13
|
-7.8
|
|
Richard Rowe
|
5
|
66
|
7.6
|
-£35.05
|
-53.1
|
|
Tony Carroll
|
7
|
93
|
7.5
|
-£0.50
|
-0.5
|
|
C Llewellyn
|
4
|
54
|
7.4
|
-£17.00
|
-31.5
|
|
Jim Goldie
|
4
|
56
|
7.1
|
-£33.17
|
-59.2
|
|
Bob Buckler
|
7
|
99
|
7.1
|
-£24.00
|
-24.2
|
|
Nick Gifford
|
7
|
102
|
6.9
|
-£70.46
|
-69.1
|
|
Chris Down
|
5
|
73
|
6.9
|
-£22.75
|
-31.2
|
|
Tim Easterby
|
4
|
61
|
6.6
|
-£35.00
|
-57.4
|
|
Peter Bowen
|
8
|
123
|
6.5
|
-£50.88
|
-41.4
|
|
Ian Williams
|
7
|
117
|
6.0
|
-£84.38
|
-72.1
|
|
Noel Chance
|
3
|
52
|
5.8
|
-£33.56
|
-64.5
|
|
Richard Phillips
|
7
|
122
|
5.7
|
-£21.50
|
-17.6
|
|
Michael Easterby
|
4
|
75
|
5.3
|
-£36.50
|
-48.7
|
|
Andy Turnell
|
4
|
78
|
5.1
|
-£49.67
|
-63.7
|
|
James Frost
|
3
|
62
|
4.8
|
-£22.00
|
-35.5
|
|
Seamus Mullins
|
5
|
106
|
4.7
|
-£38.50
|
-36.3
|
|
Ron Hodges
|
4
|
86
|
4.7
|
-£53.25
|
-61.9
|
|
Nigel Hawke
|
3
|
74
|
4.1
|
-£44.00
|
-59.5
|
|
James Moffatt
|
2
|
51
|
3.9
|
-£25.00
|
-49.0
|
|
Alex Hales
|
3
|
82
|
3.7
|
-£23.50
|
-28.7
|
|
Henrietta Knight
|
5
|
140
|
3.6
|
-£60.50
|
-43.2
|
|
Chris Grant
|
3
|
89
|
3.4
|
-£52.50
|
-59.0
|
|
Alison Thorpe
|
2
|
65
|
3.1
|
-£29.00
|
-44.6
|
|
Richard Guest
|
1
|
50
|
2.0
|
-£47.25
|
-94.5
|
|
Michael Scudamore
|
0
|
73
|
0.0
|
-£73.00
|
-100.0
|
Nicky Henderson tops the list (as he did in November). He has made profits in 3 of the 5 Decembers so he is fairly consistent. However, the concern for me is that punters have latched on to his runners as the prices of his horses were generally much shorter in 2007 than they were in 2011. Hence making a blind profit in 2012 may prove difficult. The market tends to be a good guide to the chances of his runners with the top 4 of the betting providing 84 of his 89 winners. He has made a profit with his favourites – nearly 19p in the £ from a 52% strike rate. He also has an excellent record with horses returning to the track after a break of 5 months or more – 31 wins from 88 (SR 35.2%) for a profit of £62.09 (ROI +70.6%). In terms of courses, he has a very good record at this time of year at Kempton and Cheltenham.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in December since 2007 – again it is a full list:
All chases (Dec 07-11) – 30 runs minimum
|
Trainer
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
Strike Rate (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
Nick Williams
|
11
|
40
|
27.5
|
+£15.47
|
+38.7
|
|
Nicky Henderson
|
30
|
113
|
26.6
|
-£7.40
|
-6.6
|
|
Paul Nicholls
|
47
|
192
|
24.5
|
-£28.09
|
-14.6
|
|
Richard Lee
|
12
|
56
|
21.4
|
+£62.33
|
+111.3
|
|
Paul Webber
|
9
|
42
|
21.4
|
+£1.64
|
+3.9
|
|
Caroline Bailey
|
7
|
33
|
21.2
|
+£26.33
|
+79.8
|
|
Donald McCain
|
19
|
93
|
20.4
|
-£11.89
|
-12.8
|
|
Venetia Williams
|
27
|
139
|
19.4
|
+£7.28
|
+5.2
|
|
Kim Bailey
|
7
|
38
|
18.4
|
-£0.50
|
-1.3
|
|
Nicky Richards
|
7
|
38
|
18.4
|
-£4.67
|
-12.3
|
|
Lucinda Russell
|
9
|
54
|
16.7
|
-£20.15
|
-37.3
|
|
Philip Hobbs
|
25
|
152
|
16.5
|
-£21.31
|
-14.0
|
|
John Wade
|
6
|
38
|
15.8
|
-£5.88
|
-15.5
|
|
David Pipe
|
19
|
122
|
15.6
|
-£11.26
|
-9.2
|
|
Alan King
|
20
|
132
|
15.2
|
-£24.54
|
-18.6
|
|
Colin Tizzard
|
15
|
99
|
15.2
|
-£11.25
|
-11.4
|
|
Malcolm Jefferson
|
5
|
33
|
15.2
|
+£32.25
|
+97.7
|
|
Charlie Longsdon
|
7
|
47
|
14.9
|
-£8.50
|
-18.1
|
|
Keith Reveley
|
8
|
54
|
14.8
|
+£78.50
|
+145.4
|
|
Tim Vaughan
|
5
|
35
|
14.3
|
-£13.25
|
-37.9
|
|
Sue Smith
|
17
|
123
|
13.8
|
-£28.05
|
-22.8
|
|
Martin Todhunter
|
5
|
38
|
13.2
|
-£2.50
|
-6.6
|
|
Jonjo O'Neill
|
19
|
148
|
12.8
|
-£37.82
|
-25.6
|
|
Tom George
|
9
|
71
|
12.7
|
-£20.88
|
-29.4
|
|
Evan Williams
|
10
|
79
|
12.7
|
-£2.54
|
-3.2
|
|
Brendan Powell
|
8
|
64
|
12.5
|
+£39.36
|
+61.5
|
|
Bob Buckler
|
6
|
49
|
12.2
|
+£18.00
|
+36.7
|
|
Emma Lavelle
|
4
|
36
|
11.1
|
-£12.25
|
-34.0
|
|
Victor Dartnall
|
5
|
49
|
10.2
|
-£20.87
|
-42.6
|
|
Charlie Mann
|
7
|
70
|
10.0
|
-£27.50
|
-39.3
|
|
Ferdy Murphy
|
14
|
145
|
9.7
|
-£43.81
|
-30.2
|
|
Henry Daly
|
7
|
76
|
9.2
|
-£36.58
|
-48.1
|
|
Gary Moore
|
6
|
72
|
8.3
|
-£35.00
|
-48.6
|
|
Seamus Mullins
|
3
|
36
|
8.3
|
-£4.50
|
-12.5
|
|
Martin Keighley
|
3
|
38
|
7.9
|
-£27.13
|
-71.4
|
|
Nigel Twiston-Davies
|
14
|
179
|
7.8
|
-£108.50
|
-60.6
|
|
Peter Bowen
|
4
|
53
|
7.6
|
-£36.38
|
-68.6
|
|
Richard Rowe
|
3
|
41
|
7.3
|
-£15.67
|
-38.2
|
|
Ron Hodges
|
2
|
33
|
6.1
|
-£21.25
|
-64.4
|
|
Nigel Hawke
|
2
|
36
|
5.6
|
-£12.00
|
-33.3
|
|
Nick Gifford
|
2
|
39
|
5.1
|
-£25.00
|
-64.1
|
|
Henrietta Knight
|
2
|
62
|
3.2
|
-£44.50
|
-71.8
|
|
Andy Turnell
|
1
|
38
|
2.6
|
-£23.00
|
-60.5
|
Trainers with a strike rate of 20% or more are definitely worth a second glance when saddling a chaser in this month. Nick Williams tops the list and the market has been a good guide to the chances of his runners – horses from the top three of the betting have provided 10 winners from 27 (SR 37%) for a profit of £19.98 (ROI +74%); horses fourth or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from 13 for a loss of £4.50 (ROI -34.6%). Richard Lee has also done well and he has actually made a blind profit in all of the last 5 Decembers. All bar one of his winners have come in handicaps and he has won with a range of prices up to 16/1.
Moving onto hurdle races now:
All hurdle races (Dec 07-11) – 30 runs minimum
|
Trainer
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
Strike Rate (%)
|
Profit
|
ROI (%)
|
|
Nicky Henderson
|
54
|
190
|
28.4
|
+£39.95
|
+21.0
|
|
Paul Nicholls
|
38
|
178
|
21.4
|
-£34.92
|
-19.6
|
|
Victor Dartnall
|
8
|
41
|
19.5
|
-£10.54
|
-25.7
|
|
Richard Fahey
|
6
|
34
|
17.7
|
-£17.79
|
-52.3
|
|
Donald McCain
|
32
|
182
|
17.6
|
+£10.19
|
+5.6
|
|
Alan King
|
42
|
254
|
16.5
|
+£4.81
|
+1.9
|
|
Brian Ellison
|
8
|
49
|
16.3
|
-£12.27
|
-25.1
|
|
Jim Best
|
8
|
50
|
16.0
|
-£24.39
|
-48.8
|
|
Jennie Candlish
|
5
|
32
|
15.6
|
-£2.00
|
-6.3
|
|
David Evans
|
6
|
39
|
15.4
|
+£1.35
|
+3.5
|
|
Tim Vaughan
|
14
|
93
|
15.1
|
+£7.58
|
+8.2
|
|
Dr Richard Newland
|
5
|
34
|
14.7
|
+£2.25
|
+6.6
|
|
Tim Walford
|
6
|
41
|
14.6
|
-£6.75
|
-16.5
|
|
Kim Bailey
|
8
|
55
|
14.6
|
+£11.79
|
+21.4
|
|
Philip Hobbs
|
28
|
197
|
14.2
|
-£53.45
|
-27.1
|
|
Nicky Richards
|
7
|
50
|
14.0
|
-£22.25
|
-44.5
|
|
Neil King
|
8
|
61
|
13.1
|
-£5.50
|
-9.0
|
|
Keith Reveley
|
7
|
54
|
13.0
|
-£14.52
|
-26.9
|
|
Warren Greatrex
|
4
|
31
|
12.9
|
-£9.67
|
-31.2
|
|
David Pipe
|
24
|
192
|
12.5
|
-£38.05
|
-19.8
|
|
Lucy Wadham
|
6
|
48
|
12.5
|
+£22.00
|
+45.8
|
|
Martin Keighley
|
5
|
41
|
12.2
|
+£34.75
|
+84.8
|
|
Caroline Keevil
|
4
|
33
|
12.1
|
+£17.00
|
+51.5
|
|
Tom George
|
7
|
58
|
12.1
|
+£2.63
|
+4.5
|
|
Steve Gollings
|
4
|
34
|
11.8
|
-£24.35
|
-71.6
|
|
Ferdy Murphy
|
11
|
95
|
11.6
|
-£24.87
|
-26.2
|
|
Emma Lavelle
|
9
|
78
|
11.5
|
-£34.27
|
-43.9
|
|
Henry Daly
|
7
|
62
|
11.3
|
-£0.02
|
0.0
|
|
Gary Moore
|
15
|
134
|
11.2
|
-£40.25
|
-30.0
|
|
Jonjo O'Neill
|
20
|
181
|
11.1
|
-£70.75
|
-39.1
|
|
Brendan Powell
|
11
|
106
|
10.4
|
-£48.13
|
-45.4
|
|
Charlie Longsdon
|
7
|
68
|
10.3
|
+£28.61
|
+42.1
|
|
Micky Hammond
|
5
|
50
|
10.0
|
+£4.50
|
+9.0
|
|
Neil Mulholland
|
3
|
30
|
10.0
|
-£16.42
|
-54.7
|
|
Mike Sowersby
|
3
|
31
|
9.7
|
+£6.00
|
+19.4
|
|
Rebecca Curtis
|
3
|
31
|
9.7
|
-£13.43
|
-43.3
|
|
Malcolm Jefferson
|
4
|
43
|
9.3
|
-£30.80
|
-71.6
|
|
Colin Tizzard
|
4
|
44
|
9.1
|
-£7.06
|
-16.0
|
|
Nigel Twiston-Davies
|
13
|
144
|
9.0
|
-£43.50
|
-30.2
|
|
Tony Carroll
|
6
|
67
|
9.0
|
+£16.50
|
+24.6
|
|
George Moore
|
4
|
45
|
8.9
|
-£5.13
|
-11.4
|
|
Paul Webber
|
6
|
68
|
8.8
|
-£5.00
|
-7.4
|
|
Sue Smith
|
7
|
83
|
8.4
|
-£14.80
|
-17.8
|
|
Andy Turnell
|
3
|
36
|
8.3
|
-£22.67
|
-63.0
|
|
Evan Williams
|
8
|
99
|
8.1
|
-£67.61
|
-68.3
|
|
Nick Gifford
|
4
|
50
|
8.0
|
-£35.21
|
-70.4
|
|
Oliver Sherwood
|
5
|
65
|
7.7
|
-£15.38
|
-23.7
|
|
James Frost
|
3
|
39
|
7.7
|
+£1.00
|
+2.6
|
|
Lucinda Russell
|
5
|
70
|
7.1
|
-£3.50
|
-5.0
|
|
Venetia Williams
|
11
|
164
|
6.7
|
-£64.80
|
-39.5
|
|
Ben Case
|
2
|
30
|
6.7
|
-£10.63
|
-35.4
|
|
Charles Egerton
|
2
|
30
|
6.7
|
-£22.25
|
-74.2
|
|
Charlie Mann
|
4
|
62
|
6.5
|
-£38.50
|
-62.1
|
|
Chris Down
|
3
|
47
|
6.4
|
-£9.25
|
-19.7
|
|
Michael Easterby
|
3
|
48
|
6.3
|
-£18.50
|
-38.5
|
|
Chris Gordon
|
2
|
32
|
6.3
|
-£13.00
|
-40.6
|
|
Alex Hales
|
3
|
49
|
6.1
|
+£9.50
|
+19.4
|
|
Martin Todhunter
|
2
|
33
|
6.1
|
-£17.25
|
-52.3
|
|
Jim Goldie
|
2
|
34
|
5.9
|
-£24.67
|
-72.6
|
|
Bernard Llewellyn
|
2
|
39
|
5.1
|
-£13.00
|
-33.3
|
|
Peter Bowen
|
3
|
61
|
4.9
|
-£34.50
|
-56.6
|
|
Ian Williams
|
4
|
83
|
4.8
|
-£61.38
|
-74.0
|
|
Ron Hodges
|
2
|
50
|
4.0
|
-£29.00
|
-58.0
|
|
Henrietta Knight
|
2
|
51
|
3.9
|
-£15.00
|
-29.4
|
|
Richard Phillips
|
3
|
82
|
3.7
|
-£46.00
|
-56.1
|
|
Seamus Mullins
|
2
|
59
|
3.4
|
-£23.00
|
-39.0
|
|
Chris Grant
|
2
|
60
|
3.3
|
-£32.50
|
-54.2
|
|
Jim Old
|
1
|
31
|
3.2
|
-£28.25
|
-91.1
|
|
John Mackie
|
1
|
34
|
2.9
|
-£30.25
|
-89.0
|
|
Nigel Hawke
|
1
|
35
|
2.9
|
-£29.00
|
-82.9
|
|
Maurice Barnes
|
1
|
36
|
2.8
|
-£19.00
|
-52.8
|
|
Alison Thorpe
|
1
|
53
|
1.9
|
-£27.00
|
-50.9
|
|
James Moffatt
|
0
|
38
|
0.0
|
-£38.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Bob Buckler
|
0
|
37
|
0.0
|
-£37.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Michael Scudamore
|
0
|
37
|
0.0
|
-£37.00
|
-100.0
|
Nicky Henderson tops the list and he has made a profit in each of the five Decembers. One stat worth noting is when Barry Geraghty is riding for Henderson in hurdle races. They have combined to win 28 races from 59 (SR 47.5%) for a profit of £49.85 (ROI 84.5%).
All in all there is some comprehensive data for December and hope this article will help point you in the right direction. Good luck punting this month!
