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December Trainers 2012


 

December Trainers by David Renham

 

Each month, I write an article based on past trainer performance focusing on a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of December with data taken from 2007 to 2011.

 

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined. I normally split the trainers up into good strike rates and poor ones, but this time I am giving you the full list! To qualify they would have needed to have at least 50 runners.

 

All races (Dec 07-11) – 50 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

89

327

27.2

+£18.78

+5.7

Nick Williams

18

70

25.7

+£14.83

+21.2

Paul Nicholls

91

394

23.1

-£68.22

-17.3

Richard Lee

17

80

21.3

+£89.20

+111.5

Caroline Bailey

11

55

20.0

+£36.33

+66.1

Donald McCain

55

299

18.4

+£11.30

+3.8

Alan King

78

445

17.5

+£22.52

+5.1

Nicky Richards

16

95

16.8

-£25.09

-26.4

Jim Best

10

62

16.1

-£25.78

-41.6

Tim Vaughan

22

141

15.6

-£9.35

-6.6

Kim Bailey

16

103

15.5

+£9.79

+9.5

Philip Hobbs

56

362

15.5

-£64.51

-17.8

Dr Richard Newland

8

53

15.1

+£0.50

+0.9

Tim Walford

8

53

15.1

-£10.00

-18.9

Victor Dartnall

14

95

14.7

-£32.42

-34.1

Brian Ellison

9

62

14.5

-£18.27

-29.5

Milton Harris

8

56

14.3

+£35.75

+63.8

Keith Reveley

17

120

14.2

+£60.98

+50.8

David Pipe

47

333

14.1

-£3.12

-0.9

Lucy Wadham

10

76

13.2

+£6.88

+9.1

Venetia Williams

41

318

12.9

-£62.64

-19.7

Colin Tizzard

20

159

12.6

-£19.31

-12.1

Paul Webber

15

120

12.5

-£13.36

-11.1

Jonjo O'Neill

43

353

12.2

-£118.57

-33.6

John Wade

9

74

12.2

-£24.88

-33.6

Charlie Longsdon

15

124

12.1

+£20.11

+16.2

Jennie Candlish

6

50

12.0

-£9.00

-18.0

Neil King

12

101

11.9

+£7.00

+6.9

Tom George

16

136

11.8

-£25.24

-18.6

Rebecca Curtis

6

52

11.5

-£17.43

-33.5

Brendan Powell

22

192

11.5

-£18.01

-9.4

Lucinda Russell

15

132

11.4

-£10.65

-8.1

Sue Smith

25

224

11.2

-£51.85

-23.2

David Evans

6

54

11.1

-£13.65

-25.3

Caroline Keevil

6

55

10.9

+£13.50

+24.6

Oliver Sherwood

12

111

10.8

-£0.38

-0.4

Chris Gordon

6

58

10.3

+£9.00

+15.5

Emma Lavelle

13

128

10.2

-£60.52

-47.3

Ferdy Murphy

25

247

10.1

-£75.67

-30.6

Evan Williams

19

190

10.0

-£80.95

-42.6

Malcolm Jefferson

9

90

10.0

-£12.55

-13.9

Warren Greatrex

5

50

10.0

-£23.17

-46.3

James Ewart

5

51

9.8

-£24.15

-47.4

Martin Todhunter

7

72

9.7

-£20.75

-28.8

Gary Moore

21

218

9.6

-£87.25

-40.0

Charlie Mann

13

141

9.2

-£66.75

-47.3

Henry Daly

14

153

9.2

-£51.61

-33.7

Martin Keighley

8

88

9.1

-£1.38

-1.6

Micky Hammond

7

78

9.0

-£17.88

-22.9

Jim Old

5

59

8.5

+£17.75

+30.1

Neil Mulholland

5

65

7.7

-£35.67

-54.9

Nigel Twiston-Davies

27

355

7.6

-£184.00

-51.8

George Moore

5

66

7.6

-£5.13

-7.8

Richard Rowe

5

66

7.6

-£35.05

-53.1

Tony Carroll

7

93

7.5

-£0.50

-0.5

C Llewellyn

4

54

7.4

-£17.00

-31.5

Jim Goldie

4

56

7.1

-£33.17

-59.2

Bob Buckler

7

99

7.1

-£24.00

-24.2

Nick Gifford

7

102

6.9

-£70.46

-69.1

Chris Down

5

73

6.9

-£22.75

-31.2

Tim Easterby

4

61

6.6

-£35.00

-57.4

Peter Bowen

8

123

6.5

-£50.88

-41.4

Ian Williams

7

117

6.0

-£84.38

-72.1

Noel Chance

3

52

5.8

-£33.56

-64.5

Richard Phillips

7

122

5.7

-£21.50

-17.6

Michael Easterby

4

75

5.3

-£36.50

-48.7

Andy Turnell

4

78

5.1

-£49.67

-63.7

James Frost

3

62

4.8

-£22.00

-35.5

Seamus Mullins

5

106

4.7

-£38.50

-36.3

Ron Hodges

4

86

4.7

-£53.25

-61.9

Nigel Hawke

3

74

4.1

-£44.00

-59.5

James Moffatt

2

51

3.9

-£25.00

-49.0

Alex Hales

3

82

3.7

-£23.50

-28.7

Henrietta Knight

5

140

3.6

-£60.50

-43.2

Chris Grant

3

89

3.4

-£52.50

-59.0

Alison Thorpe

2

65

3.1

-£29.00

-44.6

Richard Guest

1

50

2.0

-£47.25

-94.5

Michael Scudamore

0

73

0.0

-£73.00

-100.0

 

Nicky Henderson tops the list (as he did in November). He has made profits in 3 of the 5 Decembers so he is fairly consistent. However, the concern for me is that punters have latched on to his runners as the prices of his horses were generally much shorter in 2007 than they were in 2011.  Hence making a blind profit in 2012 may prove difficult. The market tends to be a good guide to the chances of his runners with the top 4 of the betting providing 84 of his 89 winners. He has made a profit with his favourites – nearly 19p in the £ from a 52% strike rate. He also has an excellent record with horses returning to the track after a break of 5 months or more – 31 wins from 88 (SR 35.2%) for a profit of £62.09 (ROI +70.6%). In terms of courses, he has a very good record at this time of year at Kempton and Cheltenham.

 

With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in December since 2007 – again it is a full list:

 

All chases (Dec 07-11) – 30 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Nick Williams

11

40

27.5

+£15.47

+38.7

Nicky Henderson

30

113

26.6

-£7.40

-6.6

Paul Nicholls

47

192

24.5

-£28.09

-14.6

Richard Lee

12

56

21.4

+£62.33

+111.3

Paul Webber

9

42

21.4

+£1.64

+3.9

Caroline Bailey

7

33

21.2

+£26.33

+79.8

Donald McCain

19

93

20.4

-£11.89

-12.8

Venetia Williams

27

139

19.4

+£7.28

+5.2

Kim Bailey

7

38

18.4

-£0.50

-1.3

Nicky Richards

7

38

18.4

-£4.67

-12.3

Lucinda Russell

9

54

16.7

-£20.15

-37.3

Philip Hobbs

25

152

16.5

-£21.31

-14.0

John Wade

6

38

15.8

-£5.88

-15.5

David Pipe

19

122

15.6

-£11.26

-9.2

Alan King

20

132

15.2

-£24.54

-18.6

Colin Tizzard

15

99

15.2

-£11.25

-11.4

Malcolm Jefferson

5

33

15.2

+£32.25

+97.7

Charlie Longsdon

7

47

14.9

-£8.50

-18.1

Keith Reveley

8

54

14.8

+£78.50

+145.4

Tim Vaughan

5

35

14.3

-£13.25

-37.9

Sue Smith

17

123

13.8

-£28.05

-22.8

Martin Todhunter

5

38

13.2

-£2.50

-6.6

Jonjo O'Neill

19

148

12.8

-£37.82

-25.6

Tom George

9

71

12.7

-£20.88

-29.4

Evan Williams

10

79

12.7

-£2.54

-3.2

Brendan Powell

8

64

12.5

+£39.36

+61.5

Bob Buckler

6

49

12.2

+£18.00

+36.7

Emma Lavelle

4

36

11.1

-£12.25

-34.0

Victor Dartnall

5

49

10.2

-£20.87

-42.6

Charlie Mann

7

70

10.0

-£27.50

-39.3

Ferdy Murphy

14

145

9.7

-£43.81

-30.2

Henry Daly

7

76

9.2

-£36.58

-48.1

Gary Moore

6

72

8.3

-£35.00

-48.6

Seamus Mullins

3

36

8.3

-£4.50

-12.5

Martin Keighley

3

38

7.9

-£27.13

-71.4

Nigel Twiston-Davies

14

179

7.8

-£108.50

-60.6

Peter Bowen

4

53

7.6

-£36.38

-68.6

Richard Rowe

3

41

7.3

-£15.67

-38.2

Ron Hodges

2

33

6.1

-£21.25

-64.4

Nigel Hawke

2

36

5.6

-£12.00

-33.3

Nick Gifford

2

39

5.1

-£25.00

-64.1

Henrietta Knight

2

62

3.2

-£44.50

-71.8

Andy Turnell

1

38

2.6

-£23.00

-60.5

 

Trainers with a strike rate of 20% or more are definitely worth a second glance when saddling a chaser in this month. Nick Williams tops the list and the market has been a good guide to the chances of his runners – horses from the top three of the betting have provided 10 winners from 27 (SR 37%) for a profit of £19.98 (ROI +74%); horses fourth or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from 13 for a loss of £4.50 (ROI -34.6%). Richard Lee has also done well and he has actually made a blind profit in all of the last 5 Decembers. All bar one of his winners have come in handicaps and he has won with a range of prices up to 16/1.

Moving onto hurdle races now:

 

All hurdle races (Dec 07-11) – 30 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Nicky Henderson

54

190

28.4

+£39.95

+21.0

Paul Nicholls

38

178

21.4

-£34.92

-19.6

Victor Dartnall

8

41

19.5

-£10.54

-25.7

Richard Fahey

6

34

17.7

-£17.79

-52.3

Donald McCain

32

182

17.6

+£10.19

+5.6

Alan King

42

254

16.5

+£4.81

+1.9

Brian Ellison

8

49

16.3

-£12.27

-25.1

Jim Best

8

50

16.0

-£24.39

-48.8

Jennie Candlish

5

32

15.6

-£2.00

-6.3

David Evans

6

39

15.4

+£1.35

+3.5

Tim Vaughan

14

93

15.1

+£7.58

+8.2

Dr Richard Newland

5

34

14.7

+£2.25

+6.6

Tim Walford

6

41

14.6

-£6.75

-16.5

Kim Bailey

8

55

14.6

+£11.79

+21.4

Philip Hobbs

28

197

14.2

-£53.45

-27.1

Nicky Richards

7

50

14.0

-£22.25

-44.5

Neil King

8

61

13.1

-£5.50

-9.0

Keith Reveley

7

54

13.0

-£14.52

-26.9

Warren Greatrex

4

31

12.9

-£9.67

-31.2

David Pipe

24

192

12.5

-£38.05

-19.8

Lucy Wadham

6

48

12.5

+£22.00

+45.8

Martin Keighley

5

41

12.2

+£34.75

+84.8

Caroline Keevil

4

33

12.1

+£17.00

+51.5

Tom George

7

58

12.1

+£2.63

+4.5

Steve Gollings

4

34

11.8

-£24.35

-71.6

Ferdy Murphy

11

95

11.6

-£24.87

-26.2

Emma Lavelle

9

78

11.5

-£34.27

-43.9

Henry Daly

7

62

11.3

-£0.02

0.0

Gary Moore

15

134

11.2

-£40.25

-30.0

Jonjo O'Neill

20

181

11.1

-£70.75

-39.1

Brendan Powell

11

106

10.4

-£48.13

-45.4

Charlie Longsdon

7

68

10.3

+£28.61

+42.1

Micky Hammond

5

50

10.0

+£4.50

+9.0

Neil Mulholland

3

30

10.0

-£16.42

-54.7

Mike Sowersby

3

31

9.7

+£6.00

+19.4

Rebecca Curtis

3

31

9.7

-£13.43

-43.3

Malcolm Jefferson

4

43

9.3

-£30.80

-71.6

Colin Tizzard

4

44

9.1

-£7.06

-16.0

Nigel Twiston-Davies

13

144

9.0

-£43.50

-30.2

Tony Carroll

6

67

9.0

+£16.50

+24.6

George Moore

4

45

8.9

-£5.13

-11.4

Paul Webber

6

68

8.8

-£5.00

-7.4

Sue Smith

7

83

8.4

-£14.80

-17.8

Andy Turnell

3

36

8.3

-£22.67

-63.0

Evan Williams

8

99

8.1

-£67.61

-68.3

Nick Gifford

4

50

8.0

-£35.21

-70.4

Oliver Sherwood

5

65

7.7

-£15.38

-23.7

James Frost

3

39

7.7

+£1.00

+2.6

Lucinda Russell

5

70

7.1

-£3.50

-5.0

Venetia Williams

11

164

6.7

-£64.80

-39.5

Ben Case

2

30

6.7

-£10.63

-35.4

Charles Egerton

2

30

6.7

-£22.25

-74.2

Charlie Mann

4

62

6.5

-£38.50

-62.1

Chris Down

3

47

6.4

-£9.25

-19.7

Michael Easterby

3

48

6.3

-£18.50

-38.5

Chris Gordon

2

32

6.3

-£13.00

-40.6

Alex Hales

3

49

6.1

+£9.50

+19.4

Martin Todhunter

2

33

6.1

-£17.25

-52.3

Jim Goldie

2

34

5.9

-£24.67

-72.6

Bernard Llewellyn

2

39

5.1

-£13.00

-33.3

Peter Bowen

3

61

4.9

-£34.50

-56.6

Ian Williams

4

83

4.8

-£61.38

-74.0

Ron Hodges

2

50

4.0

-£29.00

-58.0

Henrietta Knight

2

51

3.9

-£15.00

-29.4

Richard Phillips

3

82

3.7

-£46.00

-56.1

Seamus Mullins

2

59

3.4

-£23.00

-39.0

Chris Grant

2

60

3.3

-£32.50

-54.2

Jim Old

1

31

3.2

-£28.25

-91.1

John Mackie

1

34

2.9

-£30.25

-89.0

Nigel Hawke

1

35

2.9

-£29.00

-82.9

Maurice Barnes

1

36

2.8

-£19.00

-52.8

Alison Thorpe

1

53

1.9

-£27.00

-50.9

James Moffatt

0

38

0.0

-£38.00

-100.0

Bob Buckler

0

37

0.0

-£37.00

-100.0

Michael Scudamore

0

37

0.0

-£37.00

-100.0

 

Nicky Henderson tops the list and he has made a profit in each of the five Decembers. One stat worth noting is when Barry Geraghty is riding for Henderson in hurdle races. They have combined to win 28 races from 59 (SR 47.5%) for a profit of £49.85 (ROI 84.5%).  

 

All in all there is some comprehensive data for December and hope this article will help point you in the right direction. Good luck punting this month!

 

 








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