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December Trainers 2010
December Trainers by David Renham
Each month, I write an article based on past trainer performance focusing on a particular month. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of December with data taken from 2004 to 2009.
Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All races (Dec 04-09) – 60 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Nicky Henderson tops the list (as he did in November). He has made profits in 5 of the 7 Decembers which shows his consistency in this month. However, the concern for me is that punters have latched on to his runners because in 2004 the average price of his runners was 10/1, last December (2009) this had been slashed to just 11/2. Hence making a blind profit in 2010 may prove difficult. Having said that, his runners coming back from a break of 6 months or more, may be the value as they have churned out profits in all of the past 5 Decembers. Indeed, in 2008 and 2009 these seasonal debutants have won over 40% of races – not bad considering they would be racing against essentially race fit rivals. Sticking with Henderson, let me look at “in running” angles as this is becoming a very popular betting medium – his runners in December that lead or race close to pace have won over 30% of the time; those horses held up in midfield or at the back early in a race have gone on to win only 15% of races. These stats should be taken into account if betting “in running” on a Henderson runner.
Venetia Williams has an excellent record in races of 2 miles 3f or less scoring with 1 in 4 of her runners for profits of around 64%; in races of 2m4f or longer her strike rate drops to 1 win in 7 with losses of 38%. I am not sure how valid these stats are, but they certainly merit further investigation.
It is also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Dec 04-09) – 60 runs minimum (SR 6% or lower)
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses – 15 of the 17 in the list have produced losses of over 50p in the £. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.
With any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in December since 2004:
All chases (Dec 04-09) – 30 runs minimum (SR 18%+)
Nicky Richards tops the list but has made a loss overall. However, his favourites have performed well scoring 12 times from 21 runners. It should be noted that 10 of the 12 winners were odds against.
Another “in running” pointer now – chasers from the Paul Nicholls stable score just 11% of the time when they are held up early on (eg race midfield or at the back). I believe good money can be made by laying such runners after 2 or 3 fences.
Moving onto hurdle races now:
All hurdle races (Dec 04-09) – 40 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
Nicky Henderson and Victor Dartnall look worth noting in hurdle races. Dartnall is 10 wins from 21 with favourites and second favourites combined. Meanwhile Henderson has secured 45 wins from 143 runners (SR 31.5%) with runners aged 5 or younger for a profit of £40.28 (ROI +28.2%).
As I noted last month, I don’t normally look at bumper stats as data is always limited during a monthly period. However, I thought it would be worth haring with the performances of all trainers who have saddled at least 20 bumper runners during this month over the 6-year period:
All bumper races (Dec 04-09) – 20 runs minimum
For those of you who bet in bumpers, hopefully that table will help you. Alan King has an excellent record although last year he was a disappointing 1 win from 10 runners. Hopefully, that was a one-off, especially as his stable seemed ‘under a cloud’ for most of last season.
All in all there seems to be some useful data in this article and good luck punting this month!
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