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December Trainers


 

December Trainers by David Renham

 

As most Punter Profits members will know I use trainer records in my betting and I am believer that trainers tend to peak at the same times each year. With December being a month where I would imagine the odd Christmas gamble takes place, certain trainers are probably worth noting in this month, In this article I am going to look at both National Hunt trainers and flat trainers in December.

 

The data is taken from 2000 to 2008 with profits/losses calculated to £1 level stakes.

 

Firstly let us look at NH races first – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

 

All NH races (Dec 00-08) – 75 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

N Henderson

137

538

25.5

+£136.75

+25.4

C Egerton

24

101

23.8

-£16.52

-16.4

P Nicholls

166

735

22.6

-£112.17

-15.3

V Dartnall

23

102

22.6

+£2.60

+2.6

L Lungo

54

242

22.3

-£19.63

-8.1

Miss V Williams

121

600

20.2

+£71.93

+12.0

A King

108

543

19.9

+£135.58

+25.0

J Howard Johnson

76

384

19.8

-£107.45

-28.0

D Pipe

42

229

18.3

+£42.52

+18.6

G Swinbank

15

88

17.1

-£30.95

-35.2

F Doumen

13

77

16.9

-£8.10

-10.5

N Richards

36

220

16.4

-£71.39

-32.5

D McCain Jnr

27

169

16.0

+£22.70

+13.4

 

Nicky Henderson heads the list with a very impressive strike rate and return. Course wise, he has a particularly good December record at Kempton, Ludlow and Folkestone. Other worthwhile stats to note include:

 

a) 16 wins from 30 runners for his 3yo runners – a better than 50% strike rate is outstanding;

 

b) 44 wins from 161 runners (SR 27.3%) for any runner returning to the track after a break of 3 months more – backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £85.72 (ROI +52.2%);

 

c) 13 wins from 49 (SR 26.5%) for hurdlers in Graded or Listed contests. A profit of £55.80 (ROI +113.9%) is impressive.

 

Alan King has done extremely well in December. Last year (’08) was a little below par but all in all his runners certainly seem to run to their best at this time of year. He has done particularly well in handicaps, especially handicap chases where his record reads 22 wins from 96 (SR 22.9%) for a profit of £58.17 (ROI +60.6%). One other area where he has done well is with horses making their debut – a strike rate of 23.1% is outstanding.

 

As I have stated before it often best to split the overall stats into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at chase races only in December since 2000:

 

 

 

All chases (Dec 00-08) – 30 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

L Lungo

16

58

27.6

+£1.95

+3.4

N Henderson

52

190

27.4

+£34.55

+18.2

P Nicholls

94

395

23.8

-£64.73

-16.4

A King

38

163

23.3

+£35.97

+22.1

N Richards

16

70

22.9

-£14.66

-21.0

Miss V Williams

68

309

22.0

+£31.65

+10.2

D Pipe

20

96

20.8

+£24.86

+25.9

J Howard Johnson

25

122

20.5

-£16.74

-13.7

D McCain Jnr

10

50

20.0

+£1.20

+2.4

J Jefferson

10

52

19.2

+£15.40

+29.6

Miss E Lavelle

10

52

19.2

+£41.00

+78.9

P Hobbs

47

272

17.3

-£62.58

-23.0

C Tizzard

14

81

17.3

-£4.32

-5.3

T George

24

143

16.8

+£8.00

+5.6

T Easterby

13

80

16.3

-£20.27

-25.3

R Johnson

9

57

15.8

-£7.38

-12.9

P Webber

16

102

15.7

+£31.33

+30.7

 

Along with King and Henderson, Venetia Williams catches the eye. To make a profit from 300 chasers is a good effort. Indeed if you EXCLUDE her novice chasers then the record looks even better – 54 wins from 244 runners (SR 22.1%) for a profit of £62.39 (ROI +25.6%). Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has a decent enough strike rate, but the prices of his runners are generally quite short and hence he has not been profitable to follow.

 

Let us move to hurdle races now:

 

All hurdle races (Dec 00-08) – 30 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

V Dartnall

17

56

30.4

+£22.36

+39.9

N Henderson

77

304

25.3

+£110.59

+36.4

P Haslam

11

46

23.9

-£3.25

-7.1

Jim Best

8

34

23.5

-£6.62

-19.5

F Doumen

10

47

21.3

-£7.60

-16.2

P Nicholls

63

306

20.6

-£39.17

-12.8

G Swinbank

11

54

20.4

-£12.07

-22.4

J Howard Johnson

49

245

20.0

-£79.84

-32.6

C Egerton

12

61

19.7

-£14.72

-24.1

L Lungo

29

162

17.9

-£27.33

-16.9

Miss V Williams

45

253

17.8

+£42.28

+16.7

A King

55

310

17.7

+£71.98

+23.2

J O'Neill

55

328

16.7

-£24.81

-7.6

D Pipe

21

128

16.4

+£14.66

+11.5

D McCain Jnr

17

107

15.9

+£33.50

+31.3

 

Henderson and King are to the fore once again, as is Venetia Williams. Clearly all three trainers are worth very close scrutiny in this final month of the year.

As stated above, I am also going to look at the performance of flat trainers in December. At this time of year we just have all weather racing, but some trainers clearly target this time of year. Here are those with the best strike rates:

 

All AW flat races (Dec 00-08) – 40 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

W Haggas

20

74

27.0

-£15.30

-20.7

B Meehan

22

88

25.0

+£16.52

+18.8

T Dascombe

12

48

25.0

-£2.08

-4.3

G Butler

21

86

24.4

-£1.15

-1.3

W Jarvis

17

72

23.6

+£65.73

+91.3

M Jarvis

12

52

23.1

-£7.80

-15.0

T Barron

37

177

20.9

+£71.97

+40.7

Sir M Prescott

16

80

20.0

-£22.17

-27.7

G L Moore

41

214

19.2

+£50.45

+23.6

N Wilson

8

42

19.1

+£41.00

+97.6

R Beckett

8

42

19.1

-£3.02

-7.2

P Cole

15

80

18.8

+£12.50

+15.6

T Mills

10

54

18.5

-£6.35

-11.8

R Hannon

38

212

17.9

-£10.64

-5.0

I Semple

24

135

17.8

-£4.75

-3.5

D Elsworth

15

87

17.2

+£21.69

+24.9

 

Willie Haggas tops the list in terms of strike rate, but rather disappointingly he has shown an overall loss. Having said that, he has a 38% strike rate at Southwell so runners at this track are certainly worth a second glance. Brian Meehan has a very solid looking overall record and he has a particularly good record with his 2yo maidens – they have won 12 times from 26 runners (SR 46.2%) for a profit of £24.98 (ROI +96.1%).

 

Perhaps the two trainers that stand out in the list are Willie Jarvis and David Barron. Let us look at their performances in more detail:

 

Willie Jarvis – December positives

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Course - Southwell

11

22

50.0

+£62.23

+282.9

Course - Wolverhampton

5

20

25.0

+£7.50

+37.5

Class 6 or lower

5

17

29.4

+£45.58

+268.1

Handicap races

7

29

24.1

+£33.85

+116.7

Up in distance

8

21

38.1

+£47.80

+227.6

Top three in betting

11

28

39.3

+£11.23

+40.1

3yo+ races

8

32

25.0

+£43.50

+135.9

Finished 4th or worse LTO

12

39

30.8

+£76.33

+195.7

 

David Barron – December positives

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Course - Southwell

25

92

27.2

+£83.37

+90.6

Class 6 or lower

22

79

27.8

+£84.38

+106.8

Down in class

15

46

32.6

+£59.36

+129.0

Distance 7f or shorter

23

95

24.2

+£95.01

+100.0

Selling races

6

10

60.0

+£29.63

+296.3

Age 2, 3 or 4

28

121

23.1

+£81.39

+67.3

Finished 7th or worse LTO

14

69

20.3

+£71.25

+103.3

 

Finally in this article I have been looking at trainers who have landed a few gambles in December since the year 2000.

 

Flat – I Semple, G L Moore, P D'arcy, G Butler, H Morrsion, W Jarvis, M Jarvis

 

National Hunt – G Swinbank, G L Moore, J O’Neill, R Phillips, D Pipe

 

Any significant price movement this December with a runner trained by any of the above ... TAKE NOTE!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 








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