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December Trainers by David Renham
As most Punter Profits members will know I use trainer records in my betting and I am believer that trainers tend to peak at the same times each year. With December being a month where I would imagine the odd Christmas gamble takes place, certain trainers are probably worth noting in this month, In this article I am going to look at both National Hunt trainers and flat trainers in December.
The data is taken from 2000 to 2008 with profits/losses calculated to £1 level stakes.
Firstly let us look at NH races first – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.
All NH races (Dec 00-08) – 75 runs minimum
Nicky Henderson heads the list with a very impressive strike rate and return. Course wise, he has a particularly good December record at Kempton, Ludlow and Folkestone. Other worthwhile stats to note include:
a) 16 wins from 30 runners for his 3yo runners – a better than 50% strike rate is outstanding;
b) 44 wins from 161 runners (SR 27.3%) for any runner returning to the track after a break of 3 months more – backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £85.72 (ROI +52.2%);
c) 13 wins from 49 (SR 26.5%) for hurdlers in Graded or Listed contests. A profit of £55.80 (ROI +113.9%) is impressive.
Alan King has done extremely well in December. Last year (’08) was a little below par but all in all his runners certainly seem to run to their best at this time of year. He has done particularly well in handicaps, especially handicap chases where his record reads 22 wins from 96 (SR 22.9%) for a profit of £58.17 (ROI +60.6%). One other area where he has done well is with horses making their debut – a strike rate of 23.1% is outstanding.
As I have stated before it often best to split the overall stats into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at chase races only in December since 2000:
All chases (Dec 00-08) – 30 runs minimum
Along with King and Henderson, Venetia Williams catches the eye. To make a profit from 300 chasers is a good effort. Indeed if you EXCLUDE her novice chasers then the record looks even better – 54 wins from 244 runners (SR 22.1%) for a profit of £62.39 (ROI +25.6%). Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has a decent enough strike rate, but the prices of his runners are generally quite short and hence he has not been profitable to follow.
Let us move to hurdle races now:
All hurdle races (Dec 00-08) – 30 runs minimum
Henderson and King are to the fore once again, as is Venetia Williams. Clearly all three trainers are worth very close scrutiny in this final month of the year.
As stated above, I am also going to look at the performance of flat trainers in December. At this time of year we just have all weather racing, but some trainers clearly target this time of year. Here are those with the best strike rates:
All AW flat races (Dec 00-08) – 40 runs minimum
Willie Haggas tops the list in terms of strike rate, but rather disappointingly he has shown an overall loss. Having said that, he has a 38% strike rate at Southwell so runners at this track are certainly worth a second glance. Brian Meehan has a very solid looking overall record and he has a particularly good record with his 2yo maidens – they have won 12 times from 26 runners (SR 46.2%) for a profit of £24.98 (ROI +96.1%).
Perhaps the two trainers that stand out in the list are Willie Jarvis and David Barron. Let us look at their performances in more detail:
Willie Jarvis – December positives
David Barron – December positives
Finally in this article I have been looking at trainers who have landed a few gambles in December since the year 2000.
Flat – I Semple, G L Moore, P D'arcy, G Butler, H Morrsion, W Jarvis, M Jarvis
National Hunt – G Swinbank, G L Moore, J O’Neill, R Phillips, D Pipe
Any significant price movement this December with a runner trained by any of the above ... TAKE NOTE!
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