December Trainers - Punterprofits.com

December Trainers

December Trainers by David Renham

As most Punter Profits members will know I use trainer records in my betting and I am believer that trainers tend to peak at the same times each year. With December being a month where I would imagine the odd Christmas gamble takes place, certain trainers are probably worth noting in this month, In this article I am going to look at both National Hunt trainers and flat trainers in December.

The data is taken from 2000 to 2008 with profits/losses calculated to £1 level stakes.

Firstly let us look at NH races first – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

All NH races (Dec 00-08) – 75 runs minimum

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
N Henderson	137	538	25.5	+£136.75	+25.4
C Egerton	24	101	23.8	-£16.52	-16.4
P Nicholls	166	735	22.6	-£112.17	-15.3
V Dartnall	23	102	22.6	+£2.60	+2.6
L Lungo	54	242	22.3	-£19.63	-8.1
Miss V Williams	121	600	20.2	+£71.93	+12.0
A King	108	543	19.9	+£135.58	+25.0
J Howard Johnson	76	384	19.8	-£107.45	-28.0
D Pipe	42	229	18.3	+£42.52	+18.6
G Swinbank	15	88	17.1	-£30.95	-35.2
F Doumen	13	77	16.9	-£8.10	-10.5
N Richards	36	220	16.4	-£71.39	-32.5
D McCain Jnr	27	169	16.0	+£22.70	+13.4

Nicky Henderson heads the list with a very impressive strike rate and return. Course wise, he has a particularly good December record at Kempton, Ludlow and Folkestone. Other worthwhile stats to note include:

a) 16 wins from 30 runners for his 3yo runners – a better than 50% strike rate is outstanding;

b) 44 wins from 161 runners (SR 27.3%) for any runner returning to the track after a break of 3 months more – backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £85.72 (ROI +52.2%);

c) 13 wins from 49 (SR 26.5%) for hurdlers in Graded or Listed contests. A profit of £55.80 (ROI +113.9%) is impressive.

Alan King has done extremely well in December. Last year (’08) was a little below par but all in all his runners certainly seem to run to their best at this time of year. He has done particularly well in handicaps, especially handicap chases where his record reads 22 wins from 96 (SR 22.9%) for a profit of £58.17 (ROI +60.6%). One other area where he has done well is with horses making their debut – a strike rate of 23.1% is outstanding.

As I have stated before it often best to split the overall stats into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at chase races only in December since 2000:

All chases (Dec 00-08) – 30 runs minimum

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
L Lungo	16	58	27.6	+£1.95	+3.4
N Henderson	52	190	27.4	+£34.55	+18.2
P Nicholls	94	395	23.8	-£64.73	-16.4
A King	38	163	23.3	+£35.97	+22.1
N Richards	16	70	22.9	-£14.66	-21.0
Miss V Williams	68	309	22.0	+£31.65	+10.2
D Pipe	20	96	20.8	+£24.86	+25.9
J Howard Johnson	25	122	20.5	-£16.74	-13.7
D McCain Jnr	10	50	20.0	+£1.20	+2.4
J Jefferson	10	52	19.2	+£15.40	+29.6
Miss E Lavelle	10	52	19.2	+£41.00	+78.9
P Hobbs	47	272	17.3	-£62.58	-23.0
C Tizzard	14	81	17.3	-£4.32	-5.3
T George	24	143	16.8	+£8.00	+5.6
T Easterby	13	80	16.3	-£20.27	-25.3
R Johnson	9	57	15.8	-£7.38	-12.9
P Webber	16	102	15.7	+£31.33	+30.7

Along with King and Henderson, Venetia Williams catches the eye. To make a profit from 300 chasers is a good effort. Indeed if you EXCLUDE her novice chasers then the record looks even better – 54 wins from 244 runners (SR 22.1%) for a profit of £62.39 (ROI +25.6%). Champion trainer Paul Nicholls has a decent enough strike rate, but the prices of his runners are generally quite short and hence he has not been profitable to follow.

Let us move to hurdle races now:

All hurdle races (Dec 00-08) – 30 runs minimum

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
V Dartnall	17	56	30.4	+£22.36	+39.9
N Henderson	77	304	25.3	+£110.59	+36.4
P Haslam	11	46	23.9	-£3.25	-7.1
Jim Best	8	34	23.5	-£6.62	-19.5
F Doumen	10	47	21.3	-£7.60	-16.2
P Nicholls	63	306	20.6	-£39.17	-12.8
G Swinbank	11	54	20.4	-£12.07	-22.4
J Howard Johnson	49	245	20.0	-£79.84	-32.6
C Egerton	12	61	19.7	-£14.72	-24.1
L Lungo	29	162	17.9	-£27.33	-16.9
Miss V Williams	45	253	17.8	+£42.28	+16.7
A King	55	310	17.7	+£71.98	+23.2
J O'Neill	55	328	16.7	-£24.81	-7.6
D Pipe	21	128	16.4	+£14.66	+11.5
D McCain Jnr	17	107	15.9	+£33.50	+31.3

Henderson and King are to the fore once again, as is Venetia Williams. Clearly all three trainers are worth very close scrutiny in this final month of the year.

As stated above, I am also going to look at the performance of flat trainers in December. At this time of year we just have all weather racing, but some trainers clearly target this time of year. Here are those with the best strike rates:

All AW flat races (Dec 00-08) – 40 runs minimum

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
W Haggas	20	74	27.0	-£15.30	-20.7
B Meehan	22	88	25.0	+£16.52	+18.8
T Dascombe	12	48	25.0	-£2.08	-4.3
G Butler	21	86	24.4	-£1.15	-1.3
W Jarvis	17	72	23.6	+£65.73	+91.3
M Jarvis	12	52	23.1	-£7.80	-15.0
T Barron	37	177	20.9	+£71.97	+40.7
Sir M Prescott	16	80	20.0	-£22.17	-27.7
G L Moore	41	214	19.2	+£50.45	+23.6
N Wilson	8	42	19.1	+£41.00	+97.6
R Beckett	8	42	19.1	-£3.02	-7.2
P Cole	15	80	18.8	+£12.50	+15.6
T Mills	10	54	18.5	-£6.35	-11.8
R Hannon	38	212	17.9	-£10.64	-5.0
I Semple	24	135	17.8	-£4.75	-3.5
D Elsworth	15	87	17.2	+£21.69	+24.9

Willie Haggas tops the list in terms of strike rate, but rather disappointingly he has shown an overall loss. Having said that, he has a 38% strike rate at Southwell so runners at this track are certainly worth a second glance. Brian Meehan has a very solid looking overall record and he has a particularly good record with his 2yo maidens – they have won 12 times from 26 runners (SR 46.2%) for a profit of £24.98 (ROI +96.1%).

Perhaps the two trainers that stand out in the list are Willie Jarvis and David Barron. Let us look at their performances in more detail:

Willie Jarvis – December positives

Variable	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Course - Southwell	11	22	50.0	+£62.23	+282.9
Course - Wolverhampton	5	20	25.0	+£7.50	+37.5
Class 6 or lower	5	17	29.4	+£45.58	+268.1
Handicap races	7	29	24.1	+£33.85	+116.7
Up in distance	8	21	38.1	+£47.80	+227.6
Top three in betting	11	28	39.3	+£11.23	+40.1
3yo+ races	8	32	25.0	+£43.50	+135.9
Finished 4^th or worse LTO	12	39	30.8	+£76.33	+195.7

David Barron – December positives

Variable	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Course - Southwell	25	92	27.2	+£83.37	+90.6
Class 6 or lower	22	79	27.8	+£84.38	+106.8
Down in class	15	46	32.6	+£59.36	+129.0
Distance 7f or shorter	23	95	24.2	+£95.01	+100.0
Selling races	6	10	60.0	+£29.63	+296.3
Age 2, 3 or 4	28	121	23.1	+£81.39	+67.3
Finished 7^th or worse LTO	14	69	20.3	+£71.25	+103.3