Extracts from new Ultimate Flat Trainer Report by David Renham
Flat racing spans the whole year these days, but the main turf season runs from March to November and this is the focus of a new piece of detailed research. ‘The Ultimate Flat trainer report’ spans the last six seasons and focuses on 121 of the top trainers in the country. This article gives you a snapshot of what you can expect to find. I have chosen three trainers; one with a poor record; one with a moderate record and one with a good record.
The stats fare based solely on turf racing and NO all weather stats have been added. As with any forms of racing there have been angles that have proved profitable in the past and the report highlights several of them. Of course there are many more negative stats than positive ones, and these are noted also. The intention was to compile a comprehensive report which would enable the everyday punter to see at a glance the strengths and weaknesses of trainers in turf flat racing. So here is a quick peek at what you might find:
A Berry
|
Variable
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
Strike Rate %
|
Profit
|
ROI %
|
|
All Races
|
86
|
1904
|
4.5
|
-£843.34
|
-44.3
|
|
2yo maidens
|
7
|
340
|
2.1
|
-£292.75
|
-86.1
|
|
2yo maiden debut
|
0
|
97
|
0.0
|
-£97.00
|
-100.0
|
|
2yo nurseries
|
6
|
92
|
6.5
|
-£23.50
|
-25.5
|
|
2yo Listed races
|
0
|
6
|
0.0
|
-£6.00
|
-100.0
|
|
2yo male runners
|
4
|
197
|
2.0
|
-£120.67
|
-61.3
|
|
2yo female runners
|
16
|
390
|
4.1
|
-£243.75
|
-62.5
|
|
3yo only maidens
|
0
|
39
|
0.0
|
-£39.00
|
-100.0
|
|
3yo only maidens debut
|
0
|
3
|
0.0
|
-£3.00
|
-100.0
|
|
3yo+/4yo+ maidens
|
3
|
76
|
4.0
|
-£36.00
|
-47.4
|
|
Favourites
|
6
|
29
|
20.7
|
-£5.25
|
-18.1
|
|
Top Three in the Betting
|
33
|
204
|
16.2
|
-£22.84
|
-11.2
|
|
SP 4/1 to 7/1
|
24
|
181
|
13.3
|
-£21.00
|
-11.6
|
|
LTO SP 25/1 or more; SP this time 6/1 or shorter
|
3
|
23
|
13.0
|
-£7.92
|
-34.4
|
|
Beaten Favourites
|
4
|
29
|
13.8
|
+£1.00
|
+3.5
|
|
Off track - 10 days or less
|
38
|
624
|
6.1
|
-£187.17
|
-30.0
|
|
Off track - 150 days or more
|
4
|
84
|
4.8
|
+£0.00
|
+0.0
|
|
Claiming jockeys
|
28
|
873
|
3.2
|
-£442.00
|
-50.6
|
|
Pro jockey taking over from claiming jockey
|
16
|
320
|
5.0
|
-£95.17
|
-29.7
|
|
Month - March/April
|
8
|
123
|
6.5
|
+£25.00
|
+20.3
|
|
Month - May/June
|
26
|
609
|
4.3
|
-£267.17
|
-43.9
|
|
Month - July/August
|
34
|
726
|
4.7
|
-£350.92
|
-48.3
|
|
Month - September-November
|
18
|
446
|
4.0
|
-£250.25
|
-56.1
|
|
Penalty carriers
|
1
|
28
|
3.6
|
-£23.50
|
-83.9
|
|
Won on all weather LTO
|
1
|
5
|
20.0
|
+£0.00
|
+0.0
|
|
Raced at Grade 1 LTO; not Grade 1 track this time
|
7
|
62
|
11.3
|
+£0.50
|
+0.8
|
Summary – Berry has performed really poorly since taking over his father Jack. Indeed, Jack’s strike rate was around 13.5% which shows how much the stable has struggled. All in all this is a stable to ignore from a betting perspective.
J R Best
|
Variable
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
Strike Rate %
|
Profit
|
ROI %
|
|
All Races
|
93
|
1016
|
9.2
|
+£101.57
|
+10.0
|
|
2yo maidens
|
12
|
196
|
6.1
|
-£155.68
|
-79.4
|
|
2yo maiden debut
|
2
|
76
|
2.6
|
-£68.00
|
-89.5
|
|
2yo nurseries
|
8
|
49
|
16.3
|
+£49.75
|
+101.5
|
|
2yo Group races
|
0
|
18
|
0.0
|
-£18.00
|
-100.0
|
|
2yo Listed races
|
1
|
15
|
6.7
|
+£86.00
|
+573.3
|
|
2yo male runners
|
19
|
229
|
8.3
|
+£14.45
|
+6.3
|
|
2yo female runners
|
5
|
77
|
6.5
|
-£55.38
|
-71.9
|
|
3yo only maidens
|
1
|
17
|
5.9
|
-£9.00
|
-52.9
|
|
3yo only maidens debut
|
0
|
5
|
0.0
|
-£5.00
|
-100.0
|
|
3yo+/4yo+ maidens
|
2
|
27
|
7.4
|
-£6.75
|
-25.0
|
|
Favourites
|
17
|
48
|
35.4
|
+£12.20
|
+25.4
|
|
Top Three in the Betting
|
40
|
225
|
17.8
|
-£40.42
|
-18.0
|
|
SP 4/1 to 7/1
|
19
|
164
|
11.6
|
-£48.00
|
-29.3
|
|
LTO SP 25/1 or more; SP this time 6/1 or shorter
|
7
|
24
|
29.2
|
+£1.13
|
+4.7
|
|
Beaten Favourites
|
1
|
37
|
2.7
|
-£34.25
|
-92.6
|
|
Off track - 10 days or less
|
26
|
249
|
10.4
|
-£18.17
|
-7.3
|
|
Off track - 150 days or more
|
4
|
83
|
4.8
|
+£27.00
|
+32.5
|
|
Claiming jockeys
|
20
|
228
|
8.8
|
+£16.38
|
+7.2
|
|
Pro jockey taking over from claiming jockey
|
10
|
105
|
9.5
|
-£21.00
|
-20.0
|
|
Month - March/April
|
8
|
55
|
14.6
|
+£32.00
|
+58.2
|
|
Month - May/June
|
25
|
334
|
7.5
|
+£26.38
|
+7.9
|
|
Month - July/August
|
40
|
397
|
10.1
|
+£99.57
|
+25.1
|
|
Month - September-November
|
20
|
230
|
8.7
|
-£56.38
|
-24.5
|
|
Penalty carriers
|
1
|
18
|
5.6
|
-£15.13
|
-84.0
|
|
Won on all weather LTO
|
1
|
19
|
5.3
|
+£2.00
|
+10.5
|
|
Wore headgear previous race; left off this time
|
0
|
17
|
0.0
|
-£17.00
|
-100.0
|
|
Raced at Grade 1 LTO; not Grade 1 track this time
|
16
|
129
|
12.4
|
+£32.13
|
+24.9
|
Summary – Best has had a few big priced winners in recent years, which is the reason he has actually made a blind profit with all runners. Hence, any runner of his at decent odds should be given due consideration. In terms of negatives he has a very poor record with beaten favourites and horses making their 2yo debut in a maiden.
W J Haggas
|
Variable
|
Wins
|
Runs
|
Strike Rate %
|
Profit
|
ROI %
|
|
All Races
|
268
|
1597
|
16.8
|
+£82.99
|
+5.2
|
|
2yo maidens
|
34
|
282
|
12.1
|
-£41.67
|
-14.8
|
|
2yo maiden debut
|
10
|
154
|
6.5
|
-£30.05
|
-19.5
|
|
2yo nurseries
|
11
|
44
|
25.0
|
+£18.09
|
+41.1
|
|
2yo Group races
|
2
|
23
|
8.7
|
-£13.50
|
-58.7
|
|
2yo Listed races
|
2
|
10
|
20.0
|
+£10.25
|
+102.5
|
|
2yo male runners
|
30
|
187
|
16.0
|
+£33.58
|
+18.0
|
|
2yo female runners
|
27
|
199
|
13.6
|
-£47.60
|
-23.9
|
|
3yo only maidens
|
25
|
104
|
24.0
|
+£14.85
|
+14.3
|
|
3yo only maidens debut
|
4
|
31
|
12.9
|
+£4.60
|
+14.8
|
|
3yo+/4yo+ maidens
|
25
|
110
|
22.7
|
+£5.60
|
+5.1
|
|
Favourites
|
114
|
313
|
36.4
|
+£1.13
|
+0.4
|
|
Top Three in the Betting
|
211
|
823
|
25.6
|
+£3.99
|
+0.5
|
|
SP 4/1 to 7/1
|
66
|
398
|
16.6
|
+£19.50
|
+4.9
|
|
LTO SP 25/1 or more; SP this time 6/1 or shorter
|
15
|
42
|
35.7
|
+£18.00
|
+42.9
|
|
Beaten Favourites
|
38
|
184
|
20.7
|
+£17.80
|
+9.7
|
|
Off track - 10 days or less
|
22
|
147
|
15.0
|
-£29.36
|
-20.0
|
|
Off track - 150 days or more
|
42
|
179
|
23.5
|
+£41.83
|
+23.4
|
|
Claiming jockeys
|
13
|
104
|
12.5
|
-£19.33
|
-18.6
|
|
Pro jockey taking over from claiming jockey
|
9
|
58
|
15.5
|
-£0.17
|
-0.3
|
|
Month - March/April
|
16
|
90
|
17.8
|
-£15.01
|
-16.7
|
|
Month - May/June
|
95
|
512
|
18.6
|
+£34.98
|
+6.8
|
|
Month - July/August
|
88
|
524
|
16.8
|
-£29.80
|
-5.7
|
|
Month - September-November
|
69
|
471
|
14.7
|
+£92.83
|
+19.7
|
|
Penalty carriers
|
4
|
13
|
30.8
|
+£7.17
|
+55.2
|
|
Won on all weather LTO
|
10
|
48
|
20.8
|
+£4.05
|
+8.4
|
|
Wore headgear previous race; left off this time
|
4
|
31
|
12.9
|
-£3.50
|
-11.3
|
|
Raced at Grade 1 LTO; not Grade 1 track this time
|
58
|
284
|
20.4
|
-£28.50
|
-10.0
|
Summary – Haggas has a very good overall strike rate and is a trainer to generally keep on your side. He has a solid record in both 3yo maidens and 3yo+/4yo+ maidens, and he is able to get his runners fit after a long break as the 150+ days off track stat shows. In addition, the market is a good guide to the chances of his runners.
More Trainers
The above is just a small snippet from a huge pdf research file we have covering the 121 top trainers.
We will give you a copy of this report ( The Ultimate Flat Trainer Report ) when you upgrade to a full membership at PunterProfits
