Articles >> horse-racing >>

Creating An Odds Line


For many years I have struggled with creating a good odds line. I have always felt that if it was possible to create a good one, then the chances of successful betting would increase considerably. In this article I discuss a week in my punting life – the first week of using my new method for producing an odds line. An odds line is basically the odds you see in a betting forecast or in an actual market. The difference here being that my odds line would show what prices I personally think the horses should be.

I have decided that after years of betting, that sometimes I try and overcomplicate things. Take too many variables on board and basically end up confusing myself. I decided therefore to create a very simple odds line using two things – my notes for each horse and a grading system from A to F.

Every time I look in depth at a race, I make notes for each horse from my records. From these notes I would then grade the horses accordingly :

A – very strong chance

B – good chance

C – worth considering

D – unlikely, but cannot dismiss

E – poor chance

F – virtually no chance

From the grades given I would produce some win percentages for each horse. From these percentages I would produce my odds line. What follows is essentially a diary of a week in February. Well eight days to precise!

Saturday 12th February 2005 – RACE 1 : Lingfield 4.55 (6f handicap)

The first race was a class E sprint at Lingfield. Here are my horse notes (these notes are exactly what I wrote for drawn2win members) :

A Woman in Love - off the track since August 4th which is clearly a concern. Also the 6f trip is on the sharp side. Add to that a high sand handicap mark and we can pass over this one.

Dutch Key Card - won here over 5f on the 19th January, and looks better at the minimum trip . Cannot dismiss trainer Butler at Lingfield, but there look to be better candidates.

Gilded Cove - 7 wins on the sand although all but one has been on fibresand (old Wolves surface / Southwell). Possible, but not likely for me.

Gone N'Dunnett - effective off this sort of mark and 6f at Lingfield has seen two decent performances this winter. Beaten 4 lengths yesterday over 5f in what could have been a warm up for today. Possible place claims again if in the mood.

Greenwood - versatile horse that has run some solid races here this winter. Equally effective over 6 and 7f and one for the shortlist. Tried to make all here last time before being collared late on.

Indian Maiden - won similar race here last month the form of which has been boosted by wins from the 2nd and 4th that day. Wide draw in 12 is not ideal here, but likely to be held up for a late run so it should not be so much of a problem. Solid chance.

Joy and Pain - has been in good form over 7f here recently. Should be able to cope with the drop back in trip and one for the shortlist.

Rise - 6th last time over c & d when unlucky in running. Has a capable young jockey on board and an interesting first booking for trainer Andrew Reid. Place claims in open race.

Roman Quintet - gained deserved win earlier in the winter season. Back to a more sensible trip after trying 10f last time, although 7f would suit better one suspects.

Roxanne Mill - off the track since the turf season. Would be a danger if fit, but that is a big 'if'.

Taranaki - decent 3rd last time. 7f suits better, but a strong 6 is Ok. Another for the shortlist.

Whinhill House - on a four timer but this looks much tougher. Cannot dismiss but would suspect this race is too hot.

From these notes I graded the horses and assigned percentages. From these percentages I worked out their odds. The horses are ordered from most likely winner to least likely. Even within each grade “band”, I ordered the horses, so for “C” grade horses, I marginally preferred Rise to Joy of Pain, who in turn I preferred to Whinhill House, etc, etc :

HORSE

GRADE

PERCENTAGE

ODDS

Indian Maiden

B

16

5.25 - 1

Taranaki

B

15

5.67 - 1

Greenwood

B

14

6.14 - 1

Rise

C

11

8.09 - 1

Joy and Pain

C

10

9 - 1

Whinhill House

C

9

10.11 - 1

Dutch Key Card

C

9

10.11 - 1

Roman Quintet

C

8

11.5 – 1

Gone N' Dunnett

D

6

15.67 - 1

Gilded Cove

E

4

24 - 1

A Woman in Love

F

2

49 - 1

Roxanne Mill

F

2

49 - 1

My race percentage equaled 106%, which I was happy enough with.

My next step was to compare the Racing Post forecast prices with my odds line. From here I could decide whether I had found a value bet or not. For the record I decided to round my prices where necessary (some up, some down) :

HORSE

MY ODDS

RP FORECAST

Indian Maiden

11 - 2

6 - 1

Taranaki

6 - 1

4 - 1

Greenwood

6 - 1

8 - 1

Rise

8 - 1

10 - 1

Joy and Pain

9 - 1

8 - 1

Whinhill House

10 - 1

7 - 1

Dutch Key Card

10 - 1

8 - 1

Roman Quintet

12 – 1

7 - 1

Gone N' Dunnett

16 - 1

16 - 1

Gilded Cove

25 - 1

25 - 1

A Woman in Love

50 - 1

12 - 1

Roxanne Mill

50 - 1

25 - 1

The Racing Post overall race percentage was 123%, which is important to consider when comparing these figures. Hence I adjusted the Racing Post prices to a percentage that was nearer to my 106, which I hoped would mirror early Betfair prices. Hence the final comparison of odds was as follows :

HORSE

MY ODDS

ADJUSTED RP FORECAST

Indian Maiden

11 - 2

7 - 1

Taranaki

6 - 1

5 - 1

Greenwood

6 - 1

9 - 1

Rise

8 - 1

12 - 1

Joy and Pain

9 - 1

10 - 1

Whinhill House

10 - 1

17 - 2

Dutch Key Card

10 - 1

9 - 1

Roman Quintet

12 – 1

17 - 2

Gone N' Dunnett

16 - 1

19 -1

Gilded Cove

25 - 1

30 - 1

A Woman in Love

50 - 1

14 - 1

Roxanne Mill

50 - 1

30 - 1

Looking at this comparison I came to this initial conclusion :

1. The following horses could be considered as value prices : Indian Maiden, Greenwood and Rise.

2. The following horses could be considered as poor value : Whinhill House, Roman Quintet, A Woman in Love and Roxanne Mill.

3. The prices of remaining horses Taranaki, Joy and Pain, Dutch Key Card, Gone N’ Dunnett and Gilded Cove looked about right.

From here I produced a shortlist of candidates :

Indian Maiden

Greenwood

Taranaki

Rise

Two others I considered for the shortlist were Gone N’Dunnett and Joy and Pain, but I decided that the other four horses looked better value and more likely winners of the race.

Of the four Rise seemed to offer the best value and hence I backed the horse each way. I got 14-1 which I felt was very good value.

Race Result (with starting prices) :

1st Indian Maiden 7 - 1

2nd Joy and Pain 5 – 1

3rd Roman Quintet 13 – 2

Unfortunately my selection Rise finished in 8th about 2 lengths away from 3rd and place money.

An unsuccessful start on the punting front, but there were some positives :

a) one of my shortlist of four won – Indian Maiden @ 7-1;

b) three of the four horses I felt were poor value finished 9th, 11th and 12th respectively;

c) the five horses that headed my odds line produced the 1st, 2nd, and 4th.

Onto day two. I had Sunday off to reflect on this first day and was feeling positive and ready to continue the experiment.

Monday 14th February 2005 – RACE 2 : Wolverhampton 1.50 (5f handicap)

This was the first division of a class F handicap at Wolverhampton. A low grade race, but one where draw bias and class should play a part so a race worth pricing up. I went through my note making process once again and decided upon my grades for each horse. I then assigned percentages as before and from there produced my odds line. To stop this article becoming a thesis I have reproduced one table with short comments, a grade and an odds line. Once again the horses are ordered from most likely winner to least likely :

HORSE

COMMENTS

GRADE

ODDS

Chatshow

In good form, good draw, stable in form

B

9 - 2

Legal Set

Good form, fair draw, good run wide draw latest

B

11 - 2

Cargo

Won void race latest, good draw and jockey

C

15 - 2

Lady Pekan

Wide draw not ideal, but in good form, likes c / d

C

8 - 1

Scary Night

Better on fibresand, fair form, stable in form

C

10 - 1

Abelard

Good draw, but fairly exposed, trainer in form

D

12 - 1

Park Star

Better at 6f, moderate draw

D

14 - 1

Teyaar

Won banded last time, well drawn, possibly outclassed

D

14 - 1

Wendy’s Girl

Poor draw, but in good form

D

14 - 1

Danakim

Good draw, but likely to be outclassed

E

25 - 1

Strathclyde

Totally out of form.

F

33 - 1

Ardkeel Lass

Poor draw, poor form.

F

33 - 1

Elvina

Poor draw, poor form.

F

33 - 1

Went through the same process of adjusting the Racing Post prices to match my overall percentage (over round) and the final comparison of odds was as follows :

HORSE

MY ODDS

ADJUSTED RP FORECAST

Chatshow

9 - 2

13 - 2

Legal Set

11 - 2

12 - 1

Cargo

15 - 2

13 - 2

Lady Pekan

8 - 1

15 - 2

Scary Night

10 - 1

11 - 1

Abelard

12 - 1

12 - 1

Park Star

14 - 1

12 - 1

Teyaar

14 - 1

10 - 1

Wendy’s Girl

14 - 1

10 - 1

Danakim

25 - 1

14 -1

Strathclyde

33 - 1

18 -1

Ardkeel Lass

33 - 1

18 - 1

Elvina

33 - 1

30 - 1

As with Race 1 I used these comparisons to produce a shortlist. Both Legal Set and Chatshow stood out as excellent value and headed the shortlist. The shortlist read :

Legal Set

Chatshow

Scary Night

Abelard

With both Legal Set and Chatshow standing out, I decided to back them both to win. 1 point on each horse.

Race Result (with starting prices) :

1st Chatshow 5 - 2

2nd Cargo 9 - 2

3rd Elvina 25 -1

A winning result with Chatshow winning at 5-2. The horse was well backed having been available at 6-1 on Betfair earlier in the day. The other selection Legal Set finished a close up 5th @ 12-1.

For the record, one of the shortlist Scary Night was a non runner, while the other Abelard was backed into 9-2 but finished 11th. Outsider Elvina ran well above expectations to come 3rd.

Monday 14th February 2005 – RACE 3 : Wolverhampton 2.20 (5f handicap)

This was the second division of a class F handicap at Wolverhampton. Once again the horses are ordered from most likely winner to least likely :

HORSE

COMMENTS

GRADE

ODDS

Smirfy’s Party

Good draw, good run from poor draw last time.

B

5 - 1

Henry Tun

Won well from poor draw last time. Well drawn.

B

11 - 2

Kiss the Rain

Good draw, best at 5f, unlucky last time.

B

13 - 2

Ballybunion

Wide draw not ideal, but in good form.

C

8 - 1

David’s Mark

No luck with draw again, but tends to be held up.

C

8 - 1

Ladies Knight

Decent effort last time, comes from off the pace.

C

9 - 1

Stagnite

Stopped twice last time, fair draw.

C

9 - 1

Petana

Fair form at low level, but this is harder.

D

12 - 1

Smart Starprincess

Little luck with draw recently and poor draw again here.

D

12 - 1

Laurel Dawn

Best at 5f, better on fibresand, poor draw.

D

12 - 1

Urban Calm

Fair draw, but little else to recommend.

D

16 - 1

Percy Douglas

Off track for nearly 3 years.

F

33 - 1

Wilson Blyth

Off track for 5 months + looks outclassed.

F

40 - 1

Here is my odds comparison :

HORSE

MY ODDS

ADJUSTED RP FORECAST

Smirfy’s Party

5 - 1

5 - 1

Henry Tun

11 - 2

6 - 1

Kiss the Rain

13 - 2

12 - 1

Ballybunion

8 - 1

5 - 1

David’s Mark

8 - 1

10 -1

Ladies Knight

9 - 1

12 - 1

Stagnite

9 - 1

6 - 1

Petana

12 - 1

8 - 1

Smart Starprincess

12 - 1

12 - 1

Laurel Dawn

12 - 1

12 - 1

Urban Calm

16 - 1

20 - 1

Percy Douglas

33 - 1

33 - 1

Wilson Blyth

40 - 1

33 - 1

My shortlist read :

Smirfy’s Party

Henry Tun

Kiss the Rain

David’s Mark

Ladies Knight

Five horses on the shortlist on this occasion. Kiss the Rain looked the real value of the race and I backed the horse each way.

Race Result (with starting prices) :

1st Kiss the Rain 12 -1

2nd Ladies Knight 6 - 1

3rd Stagnite 8 – 1

An excellent result with selection Kiss the Rain winning at 12 - 1. Not only that the shortlist of 5 provided not only the winner, but also the 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th.

Tuesday 15th February 2005 – RACE 4 : Southwell 3.30 (5f banded race)

Banded races are generally best avoided, but I thought with no other racing fare on this Tuesday I would look at the 5f sprint.

HORSE

COMMENTS

GRADE

ODDS

Star Lad

Acts on surface and drop to 5f looks long overdue. Chance.

B

5 - 1

The Gambler

3rd the day before showing improved form and chance if repeating that.

B

5 - 1

He's a Rocket

Some fair efforts recently and these represent decent form in this race.

B

11 - 2

Vlasta Weiner

Won last time, but drop from 7f not sure to suit. Could not dismiss though.

C

15 - 2

So Sober

Fair 5th last time and acts on surface. Retains enough ability to be considered.

C

8 - 1

Mr Spliffy

Fair 6th last time and `repeat` of that would give him place claims here.

C

10 - 1

Mersey Mirage

One time fair sprinter. Difficult to sum up after trying 9f latest after a spell of hurdling.

D

12 - 1

Lake Verdi

Rated as high as 93 as a 2yo, but shown little recently.

D

12 - 1

Levelled

11yo who was decent in his time. Only 2nd run of campaign and could get competitive.

D

12 - 1

Grasslandik

Chance if back to 2002 form, but off for nearly a year.

D

16 - 1

Aboustar

Fair effort at Newcastle last time, off track for 162 days - tough task.

E

25 - 1

Black Oval

Poor effort latest, looks up against it.

E

25 - 1

Cheeky Chi

Poor form in banded company recently.

E

25 - 1

Eternal Bloom

Off track since May. Tough ask.

E

25 - 1

Here is my odds comparison :

HORSE

MY ODDS

ADJUSTED RP FORECAST

Star Lad

5 - 1

7 – 1

The Gambler

5 - 1

7 - 1

He's a Rocket

11 - 2

5 - 1

Vlasta Weiner

15 - 2

5 - 1

So Sober

8 - 1

6 - 1

Mr Spliffy

10 - 1

10 -1

Mersey Mirage

12 - 1

20 - 1

Lake Verdi

12 - 1

10 -1

Levelled

12 - 1

10 -1

Grasslandik

16 - 1

33 - 1

Aboustar

25 - 1

20 - 1

Black Oval

25 - 1

20 - 1

Cheeky Chi

25 - 1

33 - 1

Eternal Bloom

25 - 1

16 - 1

Much more difficult to produce a shortlist for this event, when taking into account the quality (or lack of it!) in the race.<> I produced a long list to begin with :

Star Lad
The Gambler
He's a Rocket
Mr Spliffy
Mersey Mirage
Lake Verdi
Levelled
Grasslandik

These eight horses I felt had claims, or were value in terms of their projected odds. I decided not to trim to a shortlist. My favoured two for the record were Star Lad and He’s a Rocket.

Race Result (with starting prices) :

1st Mr Spliffy 14 -1

2nd Vlasta Weiner 5 - 1

3rd He’s a Rocket 5 - 1

Star Lad finished 4th at 10-1.

My favoured two finished 3rd and 4th, while Mr Spliffy, the 14-1 winner was on the “shortlist”. However, as expected it was definitely a race to watch rather than bet.

Wednesday 15th February 2005

No suitable races on this day.

Thursday 16th February 2005 – RACE 5 : Southwell 4.30 (5f handicap)

Slightly different format from now on – table with all the relevant odds and grading below, while horse comments I have used for shortlist horses only.

HORSE

GRADE

MY ODDS

ADJUSTED RP FORECAST

Little Ridge

A

10 - 3

3 - 1

Tag Team

B

6 - 1

11 - 2

Johnston´s Diamond

B

13 - 2

13 - 2

Awake

C

9 - 1

15 - 1

Pawan

C

9 - 1

11 - 1

Sahara Silk

C

10 - 1

15 - 1

Wicked Uncle

D

14 - 1

17 - 1

Dizzy In The Head

D

14 - 1

27 - 1

Whinhill House

D

14 - 1

19 - 2

Larky´s Lob

D

16 - 1

27 - 1

Orpen Wide

D

16 - 1

13 - 1

Palace Theatre

D

20 - 1

11 - 1

Midnight Tycoon

E

28 - 1

12 - 1

Dollivius

F

40 - 1

70 - 1

Creating a shortlist for this race has proven quite difficult. The three horses at the top of the market are similar to the RP forecast prices. However, all three merit consideration. Three other horses Awake, Pawan and Sahara Silk look to be value prices, and although Dizzy in the Head and Larky's Lob also offer good value, I feel the shortlist should remain at six :

Little Ridge, Tag Team, Johnston´s Diamond, Awake, Pawan and Sahara Silk. A look in more detail at these horses :

Little Ridge - deserves to be favourite and will surely go close. Not sure to be great value though as Betfair are going around 9-4 early.

Tag Team - 6th last time, but only beaten around a length in a better contest at Lingfield. His effort over c&d over 5f on Dec 14th when 2nd to Magic Glade is decent form.

Johnstone's Diamond - drops back to 5f which might do the trick. Acts on the surface, but enough question marks to pass over on this occasion.

Awake - claimed out of Dandy Nicholls' yard two runs ago. Difficult to tell whether the horse is really on a strong downturn. His effort on Jan 3rd when 2nd to Majik indicates he retains enough ability to win a race of this nature. Last four runs have not been as good, but could not write off yet. Due to drop more 4 pounds soon, so if a big effort it will be coming soon I'm sure.

Pawan - drops back to 5f, but there is plenty of pace here and that will suit. Good effort over 5f here in a much better race two runs ago. Likes the surface and each way claims despite the jockey.

Sahara Silk - 5f at Southwell brings out the best in this horse - record at course reads 4 wins from 9 (3 from 7 over 5f). Interesting after moderate comeback run last time.

I concluded there was masses of pace here, which could well have suited a hold up horse. I would usually prefer a prominent racer at Southwell, but with so many front runners this race looked ripe for the pace horses cutting their throats. Hence I felt the value could lay with Pawan, Sahara Silk and Awake. However, there were nagging doubts about all three so a race to pass - unfortunately.

Race Result (with starting prices) :

1st Whinhill House 6 - 1

2nd Pawan 7 - 1

3rd Little Ridge 13 – 8

Not such a good result in terms of the winner although no bets were stuck. Whinhill House surprised me – I had the horse down as a 14-1, but it won well under the always impressive Robert Winston. Pawan ran a big race as expected and could well have won with a stronger jockey. Awake finished 5th and did enough to suggest to me that the horse has one race left in the locker. For the record Tag Team and Dizzy in the Head were non runners. Without Tag Team, the starting prices were generally much shorter than the forecast prices.

Friday 17th February 2005 – RACE 6 : Wolverhampton 5.10 (6f handicap)

A class D handicap was the order of the day and it looked a competitive heat :

HORSE

GRADE

MY ODDS

ADJUSTED RP FORECAST

Roman Maze

B

9 - 2

11 - 2

Zoom Zoom

B

9 - 2

4 - 1

Global Achiever

B

6 - 1

6 - 1

Mistral Sky

C

7 - 1

10 - 1

Hurricane Coast

C

8 - 1

8 - 1

Ali Bruce

C

8 - 1

8 - 1

Inter Vision

C

9 - 1

20 - 1

Golden Dixie

C

10 - 1

10 - 1

Wainwright

C

10 - 1

14 - 1

Latin Review

D

16 - 1

25 - 1

Time ‘N’ Time Again

D

16 - 1

10 - 1

Currency

D

18 - 1

20 - 1

Bonne De Fleur

F

50 - 1

10 - 1

My shortlist contained 6 of the 13 runners. Here was what I wrote :

Roman Maze - in good form and deserves a success. Well drawn and major player.

Zoom Zoom - looks progressive and won well last time. Was well backed that day so any money would significant. Main concern is the draw in 9 and whether he will take too much out of himself trying to lead.

Global Achiever - well drawn in 2 and won well at Lingfield last time (albeit in a claimer). Chance.

Mistral Sky - well drawn and two good efforts over c & d this winter. Was not beaten far last time over 7f at Lingfield despite being last and each way claims for me.

Inter Vision - has a poor draw, but is interesting nevertheless. Is starting to look dangerously handicapped and interesting jockey booking. I don't know much about the jockey but he has won 4 from 37 for Ramsden and this is the first time he has ridden for another stable.

Golden Dixie - draw in 10 is a negative but has an excellent record here (albeit mainly in claimers). Each way squeak.

I concluded that Roman Maze and Zoom Zoom were clearly worth considering, but both were rather short in the betting from a value perspective. Of the two I preferred Roman Maze purely due to a better draw. Of the remainder, Mistral Sky looked the best value. Well drawn and was trading early on around 12s on Betfair. Mistral Sky is inconsistent, but if putting his best foot forward he looked very good each way value. Inter Vision would have been tempting from a lower draw, but the widest draw of the lot is enough to put me off. Mistral Sky was my selection and I backed the horse each way.

Race Result (with starting prices) :

1st Roman Maze 11 - 4

2nd Hurricane Coast 10 - 1

3rd Wainwright 25 - 1

Mistral Sky was clearly fancied coming in from 11 - 1 on course to 7 – 1. He finished 4th just missing out on the place money. The winner was one of my stronger fancies so in general the process has been successful.

Saturday 18th February 2005 – RACE 7 : Wolverhampton 2.15 (5f handicap)

A class B handicap was one of two races I looked at on Saturday :

HORSE

GRADE

MY ODDS

ADJUSTED RP FORECAST

Polish Emperor

B

4 - 1

7 - 2

Hidden Dragon

B

4 - 1

4 - 1

No Time

B

5 - 1

7 - 1

Treasure Kay

C

13 - 2

5 - 1

Zarzu

C

13 - 2

7 - 1

Magic Glade

C

15 - 2

8 - 1

Dragon Flyer

D

12 - 1

10 - 1

Dusty Dazzler

D

12 - 1

14 - 1

Blue Tomato

D

16 - 1

16 - 1

Justalord

D

16 - 1

12 - 1

Westbrook Blue

F

40 - 1

66 - 1

My shortlist contained 5 of the 11 runners. Here were my notes :<>

Hidden Dragon – best draw in 1, and in good form. 5f round here might be a little sharp, but still a contender.
Polish Emperor - impressive here last twice and well drawn here. Should go close.

No Time - fairly good draw, good 2nd last time, unproven here although showed up for a long way here over 6f earlier in the winter.

Zarzu - consistent all weather performer, each way claims with a strong pace likely.

Magic Glade - not ideal draw, but definitely not out of it, each way claims.

In conclusion, of the two market leaders I preferred Polish Emperor, but at around 4 - 1, I felt the price was a little tight in a competitive event. Magic Glade and No Time were double or bigger on Betfair so I decided to split my stake and back them both to win.

Race Result (with starting prices) :

1st Polish Emperor 100 - 30

2nd Hidden Dragon 7 - 2

3rd Magic Glade 8 - 1

Magic Glade ran a cracker to finish a close up 3rd, while No Time was 7th, but only beaten 3 lengths. Although I incurred a loss of 1 point, the first three home were all from my shortlist.



Saturday 18th February 2005 – RACE 8 : Wolverhampton 3.15 (7f handicap)


A 7f class E handicap.
 

HORSE

GRADE

MY ODDS

ADJUSTED RP FORECAST

Glencairn Star

B

9 - 2

7 - 1

Kew the Music

B

5 - 1

11 - 2

Wessex

B

11 - 2

3 - 1

Raymond’s Pride

C

7 - 1

8 - 1

Merdiff

C

8 - 1

9 - 1

Prince of Gold

C

8 - 1

10 - 1

Acomb

C

9 - 1

8 - 1

Sundried Tomato

D

12 - 1

10 - 1

Dvinsky

D

14 - 1

14 - 1

Bijou Dan

D

14 - 1

16 - 1

Effective

E

25 - 1

16 - 1

Hoh Bleu De

E

25 - 1

33 - 1

My shortlist contained only three runners :

Glencairn Star – decent effort when 2nd to Zoom Zoom previously over 6f. Was closing all the time that day and the step up to 7f should suit. Good claims.

Wessex – on a hat trick and clearly a danger. Possibly better at Southwell.

Kew The Music – excellent record here (3 wins from last 3 runs here) and solid looking claims.

Wessex was a short priced favourite with all firms, but I felt the value definitely lay with Glencairn Star. 9-1 was available and I backed the horse each way.

Race Result (with starting prices) :

1st Wessex 3 - 1

2nd Dvinsky 9 - 1

3rd Bijou Dan 20 - 1

Glencairn Star finished 5th running a good race before fading in the final furlong. His SP was considerably shorter at 5-1. In retrospect the horse had been off the track for 6 weeks and may have needed the run. He had won at Southwell over 7f in December so I don’t think the distance was the problem. The winner Wessex won well and was again on the shortlist.

Conclusions to be drawn after week 1

Before going into detailed analysis let us look at the results of the bets (profits calculated at SP rather than the price I took) :

Date

Horse

Stake

Result

Price obtained

SP

Profit

12 / 2

Rise

0.5 pts ew

8th

14 - 1

12 - 1

- 1.00

14 / 2

Chatshow

1 pt win

1st

5 - 1

5 - 2

+ 1.50

14 / 2

Legal Set

1 pt win

5th

12 - 1

12 - 1

+ 0.50

14 / 2

Kiss the Rain

0.5 pts ew

1st

12 - 1

12 - 1

+ 6.50

18 / 2

Mistral Sky

0.5 pts ew

4th

10 - 1

7 - 1

+ 5.50

19 / 2

Magic Glade

0.5 pts win

3rd

10 - 1

8 - 1

+ 5.00

19 / 2

No Time

0.5 pts win

7th

9 - 1

10 - 1

+ 4.50

19 / 2

Glencairn Star

0.5 pts ew

5th

9 - 1

5 - 1

+ 3.50

All in all, I have to be fairly happy with this first week. A profit, albeit a small one. Six of the eight horses finished in the first five so that was pleasing also, especially as four of the eight horses were double figure prices. In addition, in seven of the eight races I matched or beat SP by taking an early “value” price.

Looking at the eight races as a whole I thought it would be worthwhile to see how effective my grading system was. Here are the results :

GRADE

RUNNERS

FROM GROUP

WINNERS

PLACED

A

1

0

1

B

22

6

2

C

31

1

10

D

29

1

2

E

9

0

0

F

10

0

1

From an overall perspective these figures are quite important. In order for the odds line to show success in the long run, the majority of winners need to be graded C or higher. If they are, they are more likely to end up on the shortlist and hence have the potential to be backed. Over this testing phase 7 of the 8 winners and 13 of the 16 placed horses were graded C or higher. Horses graded D or lower produced just 1 winner and 3 placed horses. Admittedly it is a small sample, and to be honest, one would hope for this sort of the result, but essentially the signs are positive.

While reviewing these results it is clearly important to see how effective the short listing process was. Here are some facts :

1. 7 of the 8 winners came from short listed horses.

2. 41 horses made the shortlist which averages out at 5 per race (39.8% of the runners).

3. Backing all short listed horses would have produced a 10.58 point profit.

Final Thoughts

It has definitely been a worthwhile experience and one I will continue to use in the future. Simplistic perhaps, but maybe that is the way forward. Well for me anyway ………

 








Free Registration
 
Systems
Free Horse Racing System
 
 
Racing Research
Racing Report Vault
 
Flat Racing Trainer Report
 
Horse Racing Research Articles
 
Bookmakers & Odds
Bookmakers and Free Bets
 
Odds Comparison
 
Top Link Partners


 

Copyright PunterProfits.com