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Course Stats For Trainers


Course Stats For Trainers – How Relevant Are They?

Course trainer stats are used by some punters as their principle method of obtaining selections. In this article I am going to try and evaluate how relevant they are. Here is how I intend to do it. The years 2004 to 2008 will be my test phase and I will be looking for trainers that fulfil the following criteria – they must have had at least 40 runs at the course; they must have had a strike rate of 14% or more; must have been in the top 10 course trainers in terms of strike rate, and must have made a profit. Whether this is a completely ‘fair’ test is open to debate, but what cannot be questioned is that any trainer that qualifies under these four ‘rules’ did perform well during that specific time span of 5 years. From here I then intend to check these trainers over the next 3 seasons 2009 to 2011 to see if their earlier success has been replicated. I have not gone through all the courses as it would take up far too much room (and time), so I have chosen 10 courses to check – these have been chosen at random. Let’s start then and I have chosen Bath as my first course:

Bath 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Marcus Tregoning 10 43 23.3 -£7.23 -16.8
Mark Johnston 10 43 23.3 -£7.04 -16.4
Luca Cumani 9 41 22.0 -£8.98 -21.9
Roger Charlton 15 71 21.1 -£8.36 -11.8
Brian Meehan 13 73 17.8 +£0.69 +0.9
John Gosden 7 43 16.3 -£18.75 -43.6
John Spearing 12 74 16.2 +£50.00 +67.6
Andrew Balding 25 161 15.5 +£42.98 +26.7
Peter Makin 7 46 15.2 -£3.38 -7.3
Richard Hannon 27 185 14.6 -£32.18 -17.4

 

Meehan, Spearing and Balding qualify – let’s see how they have fared in 2009 to 2011:

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Brian Meehan 13 49 26.5 -£1.16 -2.4
Andrew Balding 9 52 17.3 -£18.38 -35.3
John Spearing 0 12 0.0 -£12.00 -100.0

 

Meehan has considerably improved his strike rate but has still made a small loss; both Spearing and Balding’s bottom line figures are poor. Not a promising start! Brighton is my next port of call.

Brighton 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Miss B Sanders 14 42 33.3 +£67.50 +160.7
Sir Mark Prescott 12 43 27.9 -£15.66 -36.4
N A Callaghan 17 82 20.7 +£16.19 +19.7
Hughie Morrison 10 54 18.5 +£85.30 +158.0
John Spearing 7 41 17.1 -£2.84 -6.9
Patrick Chamings 7 43 16.3 +£22.45 +52.2
Brett Johnson 8 51 15.7 +£41.25 +80.9
Jamie Osborne 8 51 15.7 -£16.40 -32.2
Sylvester Kirk 10 65 15.4 +£11.50 +17.7
Richard Hannon 17 111 15.3 -£21.34 -19.2

 

Six trainers qualified from the Sussex venue. With Brighton often considered as a specialist’s track for horses, I wondered whether certain trainers specialised there too with a particularly type of runner.

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Hughie Morrison 6 22 27.3 +£16.38 +74.4
Patrick Chamings 4 26 15.4 +£2.00 +7.7
Sylvester Kirk 3 32 9.4 -£15.50 -48.4
Brett Johnson 1 12 8.3 -£7.00 -58.3

 

The other two trainers have since retired and as it turned out neither has had a runner at the track in the past 3 seasons. Overall, this is a slightly more positive result with 2 profitable trainers from 4. However, despite this, backing all four would have yielded a small loss.

Doncaster next comes under the microscope:

Doncaster 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
James Fanshawe 10 44 22.7 -£14.13 -32.1
Saeed Bin Suroor 19 84 22.6 -£5.60 -6.7
Michael Jarvis 12 61 19.7 +£21.95 +36.0
Sir Michael Stoute 15 80 18.8 -£14.42 -18.0
Jeremy Noseda 8 46 17.4 -£1.58 -3.4
John Gosden 14 91 15.4 -£18.55 -20.4
William Haggas 8 52 15.4 -£10.28 -19.8
Luca Cumani 6 40 15.0 -£4.75 -11.9
John Dunlop 11 77 14.3 +£9.88 +12.8
Alan Swinbank 6 47 12.8 -£2.88 -6.1

 

Two qualifiers Dunlop and Jarvis (Jarvis who has since retired but it is still worth checking out his record in 2009 and 2010).

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Michael Jarvis 8 42 18.6 -£3.09 -7.2
John Dunlop 3 38 7.9 -£16.40 -43.2

 

Jarvis made a loss, albeit a small one; Dunlop also has made a loss and quite a significant one. Continuing my trek north, let’s go to Scotland and Hamilton:

Hamilton 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Mark Johnston 48 220 21.8 +£6.84 +3.1
Richard Fahey 34 172 19.8 +£20.65 +12.0
Mick Channon 14 75 18.7 -£25.43 -33.9
David Barron 24 134 17.9 -£0.32 -0.2
Kevin Ryan 15 102 14.7 -£18.82 -18.5
Karl Burke 15 103 14.6 -£6.52 -6.3
Michael Easterby 8 57 14.0 -£2.25 -4.0
John Quinn 6 43 14.0 -£2.75 -6.4
David Nicholls 14 104 13.5 -£17.25 -16.6
Tim Easterby 6 45 13.3 +£3.66 +8.1

 

Just the top two in the list ‘qualify’ as the other profitable trainer Tim Easterby has not achieved a high enough strike rate. This is surprisingly as the quality of racing at Hamilton is quite moderate and I had expected more trainers to be in profit. Here are the 2009 to 2011 figures for Johnston and Fahey:

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Mark Johnston 30 141 21.3 -£10.18 -7.2
Richard Fahey 29 138 21.0 -£16.46 -11.9

 

Similar strike rates for both trainers compared to their 2004 to 2008 ones, but small losses this time. For the record, David Barron who just missed out on ‘qualifying’ by 33 pence, has made a profit over the past three seasons.

All weather racing next and I have chosen Lingfield to check:

Lingfield all weather 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Saeed Bin Suroor 23 78 29.5 +£14.96 +19.2
William Knight 19 75 25.3 +£146.31 +195.1
Tom Dascombe 14 61 23.0 +£4.88 +8.0
Terry Mills 41 181 22.7 +£23.56 +13.0
Jeremy Noseda 36 161 22.4 +£6.15 +3.8
Michael Jarvis 36 162 22.2 +£44.64 +27.6
Sir Michael Stoute 18 81 22.2 -£6.16 -7.6
Sir Mark Prescott 39 177 22.0 -£30.07 -17.0
Marcus Tregoning 29 147 19.7 -£14.03 -9.5
Peter Chapple-Hyam 17 87 19.5 +£5.11 +5.9

 

7 trainers pass the selection procedure, all with good strike rates, and their 2009 to 2011 records look like this:

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Saeed Bin Suroor 24 39 61.5 +£33.70 +86.4
Jeremy Noseda 23 98 23.5 -£35.52 -36.2
Tom Dascombe 17 74 23.0 +£57.08 +77.1
Peter Chapple-Hyam 8 35 22.9 +£30.30 +86.6
Michael Jarvis 8 45 17.8 -£20.35 -45.2
William Knight 14 87 16.1 +£3.10 +3.6
T G Mills 4 29 13.8 -£7.50 -25.9

 

These are a much better set of results with 4 of the 7 in profit and 3 of them showing a healthy profit. Bin Suroor’s record is mightily impressive. Next stop .... Newbury.

Newbury 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Michael Jarvis 17 73 23.3 +£19.35 +26.5
Saeed Bin Suroor 18 88 20.5 +£19.60 +22.3
Sir Michael Stoute 29 143 20.3 -£8.31 -5.8
William Haggas 11 57 19.3 +£27.08 +47.5
Henry Cecil 10 53 18.9 +£15.75 +29.7
Chris Wall 8 47 17.0 +£48.38 +102.9
Luca Cumani 10 61 16.4 +£6.13 +10.0
John Gosden 26 167 15.6 +£12.98 +7.8
Mark Johnston 16 104 15.4 -£9.65 -9.3
James Fanshawe 7 48 14.6 +£4.35 +9.1

 

8 qualifiers from Newbury – here are their 2009-2011 figures:

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Saeed Bin Suroor 14 56 25.0 +£20.38 +36.4
Luca Cumani 8 37 21.6 -£1.22 -3.3
Michael Jarvis 8 42 19.1 -£5.07 -12.1
John Gosden 18 96 18.8 -£6.00 -6.3
Henry Cecil 9 52 17.3 -£5.04 -9.7
Chris Wall 2 17 11.8 +£8.00 +47.1
James Fanshawe 1 9 11.1 -£5.50 -61.1
William Haggas 3 37 8.1 -£26.13 -70.6

 

Only 2 of the 8 have made a profit in the subsequent 3 years. One of the trainers Saeed Bin Suroor has produced positives figures at two courses in a row.

Back up north now to Redcar:

Redcar 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Julie Camacho 10 48 20.8 +£53.05 +110.5
Mick Channon 19 105 18.1 +£34.92 +33.3
Alan Swinbank 23 135 17.0 -£6.07 -4.5
Bryan Smart 21 149 14.1 +£42.20 +28.3
Brian Ellison 8 70 11.4 -£16.00 -22.9
Eric Alston 7 63 11.1 -£0.75 -1.2
Mark Johnston 16 145 11.0 +£26.45 +18.2
David Barron 18 167 10.8 +£108.00 +64.7
Kevin Ryan 15 142 10.6 -£24.51 -17.3
James Given 9 88 10.2 +£16.50 +18.8

 

It is interesting that the top 10 trainer strike rates for Redcar are significantly lower, when taken as a whole, than the other courses discussed to date. I am not sure why this is the case considering the racing at Redcar is not known for its competitiveness. Maybe it is down to bigger average fields? We have only 3 qualifying trainers to check to see whether they have maintained a profit from 2009 to 2011:

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Bryan Smart 11 79 13.9 -£32.10 -40.6
Mick Channon 3 44 6.8 -£23.50 -53.4
Julie Camacho 0 33 0.0 -£33.00 -100.0

 

Ouch! All three have shown large losses and combining Channon and Camacho would have seen just 3 winners from 77 runners!

Back down south to Sandown.

Sandown 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Sir Michael Stoute 36 157 22.9 +£5.06 +3.2
Michael Jarvis 18 86 20.9 +£3.21 +3.7
John Gosden 23 113 20.4 -£2.68 -2.4
Michael Bell 8 40 20.0 -£4.00 -10.0
Henry Cecil 9 46 19.6 -£2.92 -6.4
Saeed Bin Suroor 13 69 18.8 +£0.63 +0.9
Mark Johnston 25 142 17.6 +£13.05 +9.2
Chris Wall 7 42 16.7 +£9.50 +22.6
William Haggas 8 49 16.3 +£6.50 +13.3
T G Mills 10 69 14.5 -£7.17 -10.4

 

6 trainers make the cut from Sandown – let us see how they fared in the last 3 seasons:

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
William Haggas 9 38 23.7 +£5.00 +13.2
Chris Wall 5 23 21.7 -£4.88 -21.2
Saeed Bin Suroor 9 48 18.8 -£6.51 -13.6
Sir Michael Stoute 20 111 18.0 -£24.72 -22.3
Michael Jarvis 4 33 12.1 -£18.72 -56.7
Mark Johnston 9 115 7.8 -£72.82 -63.3

 

Again a poor set of returns with just 1 of the 6 managing a profit – indeed Mark Johnston’s performance has been dire. Can the last two courses chosen produce better results.

8 courses down, 2 to go and it is off to Windsor next:

Windsor 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Saeed Bin Suroor 18 79 22.8 -£1.12 -1.4
Sir Michael Stoute 30 135 22.2 -£30.20 -22.4
Jeremy Noseda 14 70 20.0 +£21.64 +30.9
Mark Usher 11 62 17.7 +£125.75 +202.8
Roger Charlton 16 101 15.8 -£6.85 -6.8
David Elsworth 17 108 15.7 +£16.36 +15.2
Michael Bell 15 98 15.3 -£12.45 -12.7
Michael Jarvis 14 92 15.2 +£5.45 +5.9
John Gosden 16 106 15.1 -£47.23 -44.6
Richard Hannon 81 540 15.0 +£49.09 +9.1

 

5 of the top 10 Windsor trainers have qualified for further inspection – let’s see how the ’09-’11 figures compare:

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Michael Jarvis 5 20 25.0 +£12.00 +60.0
Jeremy Noseda 12 55 21.8 -£4.13 -7.5
Richard Hannon 51 343 14.9 -£121.29 -35.4
David Elsworth 4 46 8.7 -£25.75 -56.0
Mark Usher 1 25 4.0 -£17.00 -68.0

 

Just the one trainer has managed to secure a profit, while three have shown quite significant losses. Onto the last course:

Yarmouth 2004 to 2008 – top 10 trainers

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Sir Michael Stoute 23 82 28.1 +£17.18 +21.0
Sir Mark Prescott 14 52 26.9 -£1.47 -2.8
Michael Jarvis 15 62 24.2 +£3.45 +5.6
Saeed Bin Suroor 12 60 20.0 -£20.54 -34.2
Paul D'Arcy 8 40 20.0 +£17.83 +44.6
Henry Cecil 9 48 18.8 -£1.25 -2.6
Chris Wall 18 103 17.5 +£23.88 +23.2
John Gosden 11 67 16.4 +£25.42 +37.9
J S Moore 10 63 15.9 -£10.54 -16.7
Brian Meehan 8 51 15.7 +£10.54 +20.7

 

Yarmouth saw 6 of the 10 pass the qualifying test so let us see if the final course gives us any better results. Here are the 2009 to 2011 stats:

Trainer Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
Michael Jarvis 8 24 33.3 +£17.45 +72.7
Sir Michael Stoute 14 46 30.4 -£0.52 -1.1
John Gosden 14 61 23.0 -£6.39 -10.5
Paul D'Arcy 6 30 20.0 -£8.50 -28.3
Chris Wall 16 88 18.2 +£14.90 +16.9
Brian Meehan 4 32 12.5 -£5.00 -15.6
Richard Guest 2 45 4.4 -£32.50 -72.2

 

The pattern of poor results continues in terms of positive returns, with just 2 of the 6 in profit.

Let us now compare all the trainers from the 10 courses – their combined record from 2004 to 2008 with their combined record from 2009 to 2011:

Years Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
2004-2008 891 4698 19.0 +£1281.12 +27.3%
2009-2011 472 2611 18.1 -£397.04 -15.2%

 

From a positive perspective the strike rate has held up well – a difference of 0.9% is not significant over a good chunk of bets. However, the 27% profit has turned into a 15% loss. This could simply be a classic case of punters latching on to those trainers that have good course records and driving the prices down. Course trainer stats are not difficult to get hold of and this is the most plausible explanation. However, whatever the reason, I will not be rushing to back horses purely on the record of a specific trainer at a specific track. The overall strike rates from our comparison make it a factor to take into consideration, but it cannot be the only consideration.

At this juncture I should add that I have cross checked these results by changing the profit filter slightly. Some readers will argue, possibly rightly, that I should have had a minimum figure for each trainer’s profit, or at least a minimum figure for return on investment (ROI). Hence, I have looked at the results of all qualifying trainers as long as they achieved an ROI of 20% or more in the 2004-2008. Here is what I found:

Years Wins Runs SR% Profit/loss ROI%
2004-2008 357 1860 19.2 +£1034.45 +55.6%
2009-2011 172 1018 16.9 -£167.32 -16.4%

 

As we can see the returns for the 2009-2011 results are actually a little worse than the overall figures. That is encouraging, albeit from a negative perspective when it comes to utilizing course trainer stats.

So are there any circumstances where we can follow trainers that have performed well in the past at certain courses? Well, one could argue that any trainer that achieved positive figures from 2004 to 2008 and also from 2009 to 2011 are in fact worth following as they have produced profits in two separate time frames. From the 10 courses I have looked at in this article here are the trainers that achieved this:

Brighton – Hughie Morrison / Patrick Chamings

Lingfield aw - Saeed Bin Suroor / Tom Dascombe / Peter Chapple-Hyam / William Knight

Newbury - Saeed Bin Suroor / Chris Wall

Sandown – William Haggas

Yarmouth – Chris Wall

With the all weather season around a month away, it will be particularly interesting to see how Saeed Bin Suroor, Tom Dascombe, Peter Chapple-Hyam and William Knight perform.

Thinking about the all weather season, I thought it would be worth sharing with you trainers that have performed poorly at the four courses – again using the 2004-2008 and 2009-2011 idea. My criteria for a poor trainer is to have a strike rate of 5% or less and a return on investment (ROI%) of worse than -40%. This has to occur in both time frames in order for the trainer to count. I also used a minimum of 50 runs in the first time frame and 30 in the second. So here are the trainers to avoid this winter:

Lingfield aw – Christine Dunnett, John Bridger, Linda Jewell, Paddy Butler

Kempton aw – Conor Dore, Julia Feilden, Michael Blanshard, Roger Ingram, Tim McCarthy

Wolverhampton – Alan Berry, Ann Stokell, Edward Creighton, John Spearing, Lisa Williamson, Peter Grayson, Phil McEntee

Southwell - Alan Berry, Ann Stokell, Colin Teague, Ian McInnes.








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