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Course And Distance Winners Research
Course And Distance Winners
This month I am going to look at course and distance winners. As a novice punter many years ago I was under the impression that course and distance winners were a positive - however it did not take long for me to realize that this was not the case. Looking back to 2008 we get the following overall stats for all course and distance winners in the UK (flat turf racing):
As we can see course and distance winners are not great investments as a loss of 22 pence in the £ demonstrates. Let me look at whether the number of course and distance winners makes a difference - here are the findings:
Essentially the more C&D wins the worse the performance. Horses that have won 3 or more times over the course and distance have poor records.
Onto individual courses next:
In terms of strike rate Brighton comes out with the highest at 14.7% which may not come as a surprise as Brighton is a unique track. Having said that, you still would have incurred losses of around 22 pence in the £. Likewise Epsom is considered a very unique course and the strike rate for C&D winners is relatively good at 14.4%, but losses would have been even steeper at 26 pence in the £. Chester is considered another quirky track being such a tight left handed course, but previous C&D winners seem to under-perform scoring only 9% of the time.
Nottingham is the only course to have shown a profit for C&D winners. I dug a bit deeper into the Nottingham stats assuming I would find some big priced winners skewing the stats - however, there were no winners priced 28/1 or bigger, with just 25/1 winner.
The figures for Yarmouth are relatively good in relation to other courses losing just 7 pence in the £ from a decent strike rate of 14.4% and as with Nottingham there have been no big priced winners skewing the returns column.
I wanted to look at the age of the horses next to see if there was an 'edge':
In general, the older the horse the lower the strike rate. Once they get to 9 or older the returns start to get steeper. 3yos who have the best record and with a strike rate close to 17% and losses of under 10 pence in the £ are worth further investigation. Indeed if we restrict 3yo C&D winners to 3yo only races, they sneak into profit thanks to 210 wins from 1074 runners (SR 19.6%) for a profit of £51.24 (ROI +4.8%). It looks like 3yo only races is an area where C&D runners deserve close scrutiny.
Moving back to all C&D runners let me examine class:
The lower the class the better for C&D winners, but it is not an area where we are going to find a good edge.
Finally a look at jockeys. I suspect some jockeys are much better at riding certain courses than others and here are the jockeys who have the best record on C&D winners:
I would consider these stats to be a positive and hence I would treat these jockeys as a positive factor when they are riding a C&D winner. From positive jockeys to negative ones:
These jockeys have very poor records when riding C&D winners and look worth avoiding.
Hopefully this article has given you some valuable facts and figures to help you determine whether a C&D winner is worth closer scrutiny or not.
David Renham www.horseracereport.co.uk
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