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Course And Distance Winners Research


 

Course And Distance Winners

 

This month I am going to look at course and distance winners. As a novice punter many years ago I was under the impression that course and distance winners were a positive - however it did not take long for me to realize that this was not the case. Looking back to 2008 we get the following overall stats for all course and distance winners in the UK (flat turf racing):  

 

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit / loss

ROI%

15913

1853

11.6

-£3546.13

-22.3

 

As we can see course and distance winners are not great investments as a loss of 22 pence in the £ demonstrates. Let me look at whether the number of course and distance winners makes a difference - here are the findings:

 

 

 

C&D wins

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit / loss

ROI%

1

12595

1489

11.8

-£2546.36

-20.2

2

2360

269

11.4

-£627.39

-26.6

3

668

66

9.9

-£260.01

-38.9

4 or more

290

29

10.0

-£112.37

-38.7

 

Essentially the more C&D wins the worse the performance. Horses that have won 3 or more times over the course and distance have poor records.

 

Onto individual courses next:

 

Course

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit / loss

ROI%

Ascot

608

48

7.9

-£226.08

-37.2

Ayr

609

64

10.5

-£188.24

-30.9

Bath

711

97

13.6

-£100.23

-14.1

Beverley

848

101

11.9

-£174.81

-20.6

Brighton

773

114

14.7

-£165.34

-21.4

Carlisle

228

26

11.4

-£60.41

-26.5

Catterick

808

87

10.8

-£136.00

-16.8

Chepstow

331

33

10.0

-£125.49

-37.9

Chester

376

34

9.0

-£124.25

-33.0

Doncaster

547

51

9.3

-£132.61

-24.2

Epsom

277

40

14.4

-£73.54

-26.5

Ffos Las

56

6

10.7

-£24.62

-44.0

Goodwood

554

57

10.3

-£107.10

-19.3

Hamilton

754

94

12.5

-£238.71

-31.7

Haydock

577

71

12.3

-£125.54

-21.8

Leicester

283

33

11.7

-£89.18

-31.5

Lingfield

148

19

12.8

-£52.64

-35.6

Musselburgh

877

101

11.5

-£305.10

-34.8

Newbury

251

24

9.6

-£64.92

-25.9

Newcastle

456

55

12.1

-£56.02

-12.3

Newmarket (July)

364

45

12.4

-£38.83

-10.7

Newmarket (Rowley)

343

36

10.5

-£41.10

-12.0

Nottingham

378

55

14.6

+£54.70

+14.5

Pontefract

496

54

10.9

-£116.90

-23.6

Redcar

577

67

11.6

-£101.27

-17.6

Ripon

452

55

12.2

-£46.14

-10.2

Salisbury

231

27

11.7

-£67.07

-29.0

Sandown

468

62

13.2

-£78.91

-16.9

Thirsk

481

57

11.9

-£51.99

-10.8

Warwick

133

14

10.5

-£50.57

-38.0

Windsor

660

72

10.9

-£184.06

-27.9

Yarmouth

557

80

14.4

-£40.96

-7.4

York

513

45

8.8

-£154.96

-30.2

 

In terms of strike rate Brighton comes out with the highest at 14.7% which may not come as a surprise as Brighton is a unique track. Having said that, you still would have incurred losses of around 22 pence in the £. Likewise Epsom is considered a very unique course and the strike rate for C&D winners is relatively good at 14.4%, but losses would have been even steeper at 26 pence in the £. Chester is considered another quirky track being such a tight left handed course, but previous C&D winners seem to under-perform scoring only 9% of the time.

 

Nottingham is the only course to have shown a profit for C&D winners. I dug a bit deeper into the Nottingham stats assuming I would find some big priced winners skewing the stats - however, there were no winners priced 28/1 or bigger, with just 25/1 winner.

The figures for Yarmouth are relatively good in relation to other courses losing just 7 pence in the £ from a decent strike rate of 14.4% and as with Nottingham there have been no big priced winners skewing the returns column.

 

I wanted to look at the age of the horses next to see if there was an 'edge':

 

Age

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit / loss

ROI%

2

374

58

15.5

-£96.92

-25.9

3

1945

324

16.7

-£156.08

-8.0

4

2821

347

12.3

-£751.08

-26.6

5

2931

358

12.2

-£632.20

-21.6

6

2554

297

11.6

-£487.97

-19.1

7

2140

211

9.9

-£486.77

-22.7

8

1510

127

8.4

-£372.09

-24.6

9

884

71

8.0

-£284.79

-32.2

10

416

40

9.6

-£131.39

-31.6

11+

338

20

5.9

-£146.84

-43.4

 

In general, the older the horse the lower the strike rate. Once they get to 9 or older the returns start to get steeper. 3yos who have the best record and with a strike rate close to 17% and losses of under 10 pence in the £ are worth further investigation. Indeed if we restrict 3yo C&D winners to 3yo only races, they sneak into profit thanks to 210 wins from 1074 runners (SR 19.6%) for a profit of £51.24 (ROI +4.8%). It looks like 3yo only races is an area where C&D runners deserve close scrutiny.

 

Moving back to all C&D runners let me examine class:

 

Class

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit / loss

ROI%

Class 1

1117

135

12.1

-£330.59

-29.6

Class 2

1840

155

8.4

-£342.14

-18.6

Class 3

1680

165

9.8

-£575.95

-34.3

Class 4

3483

414

11.9

-£690.75

-19.8

Class 5

4716

568

12.0

-£1115.31

-23.6

Class 6

3077

416

13.5

-£491.39

-16.0

 

The lower the class the better for C&D winners, but it is not an area where we are going to find a good edge.

 

Finally a look at jockeys. I suspect some jockeys are much better at riding certain courses than others and here are the jockeys who have the best record on C&D winners:

 

Jockey

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit / loss

ROI%

Doyle, J

97

25

25.8

+£61.47

+63.4

O'Connell, M

80

19

23.8

+£12.58

+15.7

Fallon, K

116

23

19.8

+£51.19

+44.1

Dettori, L

106

21

19.8

-£2.00

-1.9

Queally, T

173

34

19.7

+£92.76

+53.6

Moore, R

200

39

19.5

-£31.08

-15.5

Holland, D

144

28

19.4

+£44.83

+31.1

Kennemore, R

68

13

19.1

+£21.08

+31.0

Tylicki, F

147

27

18.4

+£25.79

+17.5

De Sousa, S

246

44

17.9

+£16.16

+6.6

 

I would consider these stats to be a positive and hence I would treat these jockeys as a positive factor when they are riding a C&D winner. From positive jockeys to negative ones:

 

Jockey

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit / loss

ROI%

Kelly, S

105

8

7.6

-£51.75

-49.3

Morris, L

136

10

7.4

-£48.75

-35.8

Ffrench, R

116

8

6.9

-£59.25

-51.1

Dwyer, M

89

6

6.7

-£49.00

-55.1

Lane, M

77

5

6.5

-£46.37

-60.2

Cray, B

62

4

6.5

-£30.50

-49.2

Makin, P

270

17

6.3

-£177.47

-65.7

Fentiman, D

154

8

5.2

-£83.00

-53.9

Mullen, R

61

1

1.6

-£56.67

-92.9

Millman, J

64

1

1.6

-£60.50

-94.5

 

These jockeys have very poor records when riding C&D winners and look worth avoiding.

 

Hopefully this article has given you some valuable facts and figures to help you determine whether a C&D winner is worth closer scrutiny or not.

 

David Renham   www.horseracereport.co.uk

 

 

 

 

 








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