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Cheltenham Trends 2010
Cheltenham 2010 Trends
As we approach the 2010 Cheltenham Festival I plan to take another brief look at the recent statistics and trends to see if it can help us narrow down what are usually extremely large and competitive fields.
Some General Cheltenham Info, in all races at Cheltenham Favourites have a strike record of 33.0%
However at the “Festival” this had averaged only 22.0% over the past 13 years.
With indeed only 2 favourites winning last year
Since 1999 no horse rated over 150 has won a Handicap Chase at the Festival.
Most winners rated 128-149, the most successful weight “zone” 10st 8lbs to 10st 13lbs
Only 2 horses since 1999 have won from out of the Handicap.
5 Year Old to 7 Year Olds have an excellent record, avoid anything over 11st 7lbs
Indeed 30 of the last 35 winners (including Novice Handicaps) carried no more than 11.3.
Coming into these races after a rest seems to be important, as 25 of the last 33 winners had been off the track for at least 30 days
Front Runners really seem to struggle in the Handicap Hurdles with 39 of the last 51 winners coming from well off the pace.
In the last 14 years there have been 303 races (2001 Abandoned)
Of these 303 Races, 168 were won by horses that won last time out ! (55%)
213 were won by horses that finished first or second in one of their last 2 runs (70%) This stat remains largely unchanged from last year, but is well worth noting.
Clearly this indicates that recent good form is a major factor in winning at Cheltenham
Last years winners previous run finished
Tuesday 16th March 2010
1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2m 1/2f
2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase 2m
2.40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f
3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2m 1/2f
4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 7f
4.40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle Race 2m 4f
Wednesday 17th March 20010
1.30 National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup 4m
2.05 Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle 2m 5f
2.40 RSA Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f
3.20 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase 2m
4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) 2m 5f
4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f
5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) 2m 1/2f
Thursday 18th March 2010
1.30 Jewson Novices’ Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f
2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) 3m
2.40 Ryanair Chase 2m 5f
3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle 3m
4.00 Freddie Williams Festival Plate Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f
4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1 1/2f
Friday 19th March 2010
1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f
2.05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 3m
3.20 totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f
4.00 Christie’s Foxhunter Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f
4.40 Matin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 4 1/2f
5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase 2m 1/2f
Supreme Novice Hurdle- Last Year Go Native 12-1
14 of the last 17 winners had won since January that year
13 of the last 18 winners had no more than 3 outings that season
17 of the last 18 won a race with at least 14 runners in
5 Year Olds and 6 Year Olds have won 15 out of last 18
11 started careers in bumpers, 6 via the flat from last 17
Irish have a good record (Won again last year)
Last 12 of last 13 winners no more than 45 days since last run
12 of the last 13 winners won last time out
Only 2 winners out of first 3 on all completed start over fences
13 of the last 16 winners won at least twice that season
11 of the last 17winners won from January onwards
Last favourite won in 2003, before that 1995
Second favourite up to 10-1 good record. 9 from last 11 (2nd Fav again last year)
5 Year Olds, 6 Year Olds and 7 Year Olds best record (7YO last year)
Only 1winner in 15 years aged 8+
Last 13 winners no more than 70 days since last run
None had run within the last 3 weeks
William Hill Chase : Won Last Year by Wichita Linesman 5-1
Irish pretty dismal record 2 winner and 2 place in 17yrs
17 of the last 17 winners officially rated between 127-150
16 of the last 17 winners won over at least 3miles before
15 of the last 18 winners carried maximum of 10st 12lbs
11 of the last 18 winners won a Handicap from November onwards
Only 1 novice winner ever (2004)
No favourite had won since 1994 until last year !
11 of the last 17 winners won a Handicap within last 3 starts
11 of the last 16 winners had a maximum of 4 starts that season
19 of the last 20 winners aged between 6 Year Old and 9 Year Old
16 of the last 19 winners figured in first 5 in betting.
14 of the last 17 winners won their last start
14 of the last 17 winners ran at least 9 times over hurdles
12 of the last 18 winners had winning form at Cheltenham
AIG in Ireland is a good trial
Most winners had won during season only 2of the last 20 failed to win
Last 13 winners no more than 51 days since last run
Glenfarclas CC Chase Won Last Year by Garde Champetre 7-2
Stick with the JP McManus/ E. Bolger combo if they have a runner
Won again last year, usually a couple runners just pick the right one !!
The Irish have won all four so far with horses that have been in the first two in the market.
Three of the four winners were trained by Edna Bolger.
1st 3 home trained by him last year !
David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle Last Year won by Quevega 2-1
Won by the brilliant Quevega last year but I will again be keeping an eye out for anything Alan King runs, given he was David Nicholson’s “apprentice”.
Last year Over Sixty was 4th at 25-1
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