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Cheltenham Trends 2010



      Cheltenham 2010 Trends

As we approach the 2010 Cheltenham Festival I plan to take another brief look at the recent statistics and trends to see if it can help us narrow down what are usually extremely large and competitive fields.

Some General Cheltenham Info, in all races at Cheltenham Favourites have a strike record of 33.0%

However at the “Festival” this had averaged only 22.0% over the past 13 years.

With indeed only 2 favourites winning last year

Festival General Information

Since 1999 no horse rated over 150 has won a Handicap Chase at the Festival.

Most winners rated 128-149, the most successful weight “zone” 10st 8lbs to 10st 13lbs
38 of the last 45 Handicap Chase winners carried no more than 11.0


Handicap Hurdlers-most winners have had a rating higher than 119

Only 2 horses since 1999 have won from out of the Handicap.

5 Year Old to 7 Year Olds have an excellent record, avoid anything over 11st 7lbs

Indeed 30 of the last 35 winners (including Novice Handicaps) carried no more than 11.3.

Coming into these races after a rest seems to be important, as 25 of the last 33 winners had been off the track for at least 30 days

Front Runners really seem to struggle in the Handicap Hurdles with 39 of the last 51 winners coming from well off the pace.

In the last 14 years there have been 303 races (2001 Abandoned)

Of these 303 Races, 168 were won by horses that won last time out ! (55%)

213 were won by horses that finished first or second in one of their last 2 runs (70%) This stat remains largely unchanged from last year, but is well worth noting.

Clearly this indicates that recent good form is a major factor in winning at Cheltenham

Last years winners previous run finished

1.2.1.3.1.1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.6.1.2.9.1.9.2.1.1.4.2

Tuesday 16th March 2010

1.30 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2m 1/2f

2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase 2m

2.40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f

3.20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2m 1/2f

4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 7f

4.40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle Race 2m 4f

Wednesday 17th March 20010

1.30 National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup 4m

2.05 Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle 2m 5f

2.40 RSA Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f

3.20 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase 2m

4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) 2m 5f

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race) 2m 1/2f

Thursday 18th March 2010

1.30 Jewson Novices’ Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f

2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) 3m

2.40 Ryanair Chase 2m 5f

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle 3m

4.00 Freddie Williams Festival Plate Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1 1/2f

Friday 19th March 2010

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f

2.05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 3m

3.20 totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

4.00 Christie’s Foxhunter Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

4.40 Matin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 4 1/2f

5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase 2m 1/2f



Day 1

Supreme Novice Hurdle- Last Year Go Native 12-1

14 of the last 17 winners had won since January that year

13 of the last 18 winners had no more than 3 outings that season

17 of the last 18 won a race with at least 14 runners in

5 Year Olds and 6 Year Olds have won 15 out of last 18

11 started careers in bumpers, 6 via the flat from last 17

Irish have a good record (Won again last year)

Last 12 of last 13 winners no more than 45 days since last run

12 of the last 13 winners won last time out

Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2009 Go Native 6 N Meade 12/1
2008 Captain Cee Bee 7 E P Harty 17/2
2007 Ebaziyan 6 W P Mullins 40/1
2006 Noland 5 P Nicholls 6/1
2005 Arcalis 5 J Howard Johnson 20/1
2004 Brave Inca 6 C Murphy 7/2F
2003 Back In Front 6 E O’Grady 3/1F
2002 Like-A-Butterfly 8 C Roche 7/4F
2000 Sausalito Bay 6 N Meade 14/1
1999 Hors La Loi III 4 M Pipe 9/2
1998 French Ballerina 5 P Flynn 10/1
1997 Shadow Leader 6 C Egerton 5/1
1996 Indefence 5 J Pitman 25/1
1995 Tourist Attraction 6 W Mullins 25/1
1994 Arctic Kinsman 6 N Twiston-Davies 50/1

 


Arkle Chase Last year Forpadydeplasterer 8-1

Only 2 winners out of first 3 on all completed start over fences

13 of the last 16 winners won at least twice that season

11 of the last 17winners won from January onwards

Last favourite won in 2003, before that 1995

Second favourite up to 10-1 good record. 9 from last 11 (2nd Fav again last year)

5 Year Olds, 6 Year Olds and 7 Year Olds best record (7YO last year)

Only 1winner in 15 years aged 8+

Last 13 winners no more than 70 days since last run

None had run within the last 3 weeks

Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2009 Forpadydeplasterer 7 T Cooper 8/1
2008 Tidal Bay 7 J Howard Johnson 6/1
2007 My Way de Solzen 7 A King 7/2
2006 Voy Por Ustedes 5 A King 15/2
2005 Contraband 7 M Pipe 7/1
2004 Well Chief 5 M Pipe 9/1
2003 Azertyuiop 6 P Nicholls 5/4F
2002 Moscow Flyer 8 Mrs J Harrington 11/2
2000 Tiutchev 7 N Henderson 8/1
1999 Flagship Uberalles 4 P Nicholls 11/1
1998 Champleve 5 M Pipe 13/2
1997 Or Royal 6 M Pipe 11/2
1996 Ventana Canyon 5 E O'Grady 7/1
1995 Klairon Davis 6 A Moore 7/2
1994 Nakir 6 S Christian 9/1

 

William Hill Chase : Won Last Year by Wichita Linesman 5-1

Irish pretty dismal record 2 winner and 2 place in 17yrs

17 of the last 17 winners officially rated between 127-150

16 of the last 17 winners won over at least 3miles before

15 of the last 18 winners carried maximum of 10st 12lbs

11 of the last 18 winners won a Handicap from November onwards

Only 1 novice winner ever (2004)

No favourite had won since 1994 until last year !

11 of the last 17 winners won a Handicap within last 3 starts

11 of the last 16 winners had a maximum of 4 starts that season

Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2009 Wichita linesman 8 J O’Neil 7/1
2008 An Accordion 7 D Pipe 7/1
2007 Joes Edge 10 F Murphy 50/1
2006 Dun Doire 7 A Martin 7/1
2005 Kelami 7 F Doumen 8/1
2004 Fork Lightening 8 A King 7/1
2003 Youlneverwalkalone 9 C Roche 7/1
2002 Frenchman’s Creek 8 H Morrison 8/1
2000 Marlborough 8 N Henderson 11/2
1999 Betty’s Boy 10 K Bailey 25/1
1998 Unguided Missile 10 G Richards 10/1
1997 Flyer’s Nap 11 R Alner 20/1
1996 Maamur 8 T Forster 13/2
1995 Rough Quest 9 T Casey 16/1
1994 Antonin 6 Mrs S Bramall 4/1F

 


Champion Hurdle Last Year Punjabi 22-1

19 of the last 20 winners aged between 6 Year Old and 9 Year Old

16 of the last 19 winners figured in first 5 in betting.

14 of the last 17 winners won their last start

14 of the last 17 winners ran at least 9 times over hurdles

12 of the last 18 winners had winning form at Cheltenham

AIG in Ireland is a good trial

Most winners had won during season only 2of the last 20 failed to win

Last 13 winners no more than 51 days since last run

Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2009 Punjabi 6 N Henderson 22/1
2008 Katchit 5 A King 10/1
2007 Sublimity 7 John G Carr 16/1
2006 Brave Inca 8 C Murphy 7/4F
2005 Hardy Eustace 8 D Hughes 7/1F
2004 Hardy Eustace 7 D Hughes 33/1
2003 Rooster Booster 9 P Hobbs 9/2
2002 Hors La Loi III 7 J Fanshawe 10/1
2000 Istabraq 8 A O’Brien 8/15F
1999 Istabraq 7 A O’Brien 4/9F
1998 Istabraq 6 A O’Brien 3/1F
1997 Make A Stand 6 M Pipe 7/1
1996 Collier Bay 6 J Old 9/1
1995 Alderbrook 6 K Bailey 11/2
1994 Flakey Dove 8 R Price 9/1

 

Glenfarclas CC Chase Won Last Year by Garde Champetre 7-2

Stick with the JP McManus/ E. Bolger combo if they have a runner

Won again last year, usually a couple runners just pick the right one !!

The Irish have won all four so far with horses that have been in the first two in the market.

Three of the four winners were trained by Edna Bolger.

1st 3 home trained by him last year !

Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2009 Garde Champetre 10 E Bolger 7/2
2008 Garde Champetre 9 E Bolger 4/1
2007 Heads Onthe Ground 10 E Bolger 5/2F
2006 Native Jack 12 P Rothwell 7/2JF
2005 Spot thedifference 12 E Bolger 4/1

David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle Last Year won by Quevega 2-1

Won by the brilliant Quevega last year but I will again be keeping an eye out for anything Alan King runs, given he was David Nicholson’s “apprentice”.

Last year Over Sixty was 4th at 25-1

Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2009 Quevega 5 W Mullins 2/1
2008 Whiteoak 5 D McCain Jnr 20/1





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