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Changing Stables


 

Switching Stables to a new trainer over the sticks

 

In this article I am looking at National Hunt runners who have switched stables and are having his/her first run for a new trainer. I have focused on horses that raced in a National Hunt race LTO.

 

So what effect does a change of stables have on this first run for a new trainer? I have gathered data for National Hunt racing going back to 2008.  I have focused on UK data only:

 

All Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

8635

858

9.9

-£1896.16

-22.0

 

As you can see, a change of stables can hardly be described as a ‘positive’. Losses of around 22 pence in the £ are testament to that. With this starting point, it is going to be difficult to find many positive slants. However, finding negative stats has value, not just from a potential laying perspective, but also for elimination purposes when you are analysing a race. Let me look at some different angles:

 

Race type - let us look at the difference between handicaps and non handicaps:

 

Race type

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Handicap

3700

406

11.0

-£447.71

-12.1

Non-Handicap

4935

452

9.2

-£1448.45

-29.4

 

Horses racing in handicaps have a better record than those racing in non handicaps so best to focus on the handicaps.

 

Age – does age makes any difference? Here are the results:

 

Age

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

3

36

3

8.3

-£4.00

-11.1

4

491

48

9.8

-£154.71

-31.5

5

1239

134

10.8

-£219.89

-17.7

6

1645

182

11.1

-£295.23

-17.9

7

1558

162

10.4

-£135.02

-8.7

8

1338

146

10.9

-£279.16

-20.9

9

974

94

9.7

-£260.81

-26.8

10

662

51

7.7

-£222.56

-33.6

11

383

20

5.2

-£191.92

-50.1

12

187

13

7.0

-£53.96

-28.9

13+

122

5

4.1

-£78.90

-64.7

 

In terms of returns it looks best to focus on horses aged 5 to 7. Horses aged 10 or older look best avoided.

 

Price - Onto a breakdown the results by price (SP):

 

Price

 

Runners

Wins

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Less than 1/2

22

17

77.3

+£1.06

+4.8

1/2 to 10/11

78

44

56.4

-£2.19

-2.8

Evens to 6/4

139

67

48.2

+£13.81

+9.9

13/8 to 9/4

299

112

37.5

+£34.63

+11.6

5/2 to 4/1

809

195

24.1

+£18.53

+2.3

9/2 to 6/1

727

119

16.4

+£8.00

+1.1

13/2 to 8/1

775

82

10.6

-£88.50

-11.4

17/2 to 12/1

1070

88

8.2

-£52.50

-4.9

14/1 to 20/1

1461

92

6.3

+£89.00

+6.1

22/1 to 40/1

1767

39

2.2

-£615.00

-34.8

50-1 or above

1488

3

0.2

-£1,303.00

-87.6

 

The starting price of stable switchers has been very important in National Hunt racing. Horses priced 6/1 or shorter have a very solid record and backing all such runners would have yielded a profit at Starting Price. Bigger priced runners however, have struggled with horses priced 22/1 or bigger having a very poor record indeed. It is also worthwhile sharing the record of the top two horses in the betting:

 

Top 3 in betting

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1

722

278

38.5

+£83.80

+11.6

2

735

172

23.4

+£24.47

+3.3

 

Favourites have an excllent record as we can see.

 

Trainers – Let us now look at the trainers in question. These stats should offer us a selection of trainers with positive returns. I have chosen to include trainers with at least 30 runners with a minimum strike rate of 14.5%). The table is ordered by strike rate:

 

Trainer

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Henderson, N J

42

13

31.0

+£5.48

+13.0

Hill, Mrs Lawney

70

21

30.0

+£143.01

+204.3

Curtis, Miss Rebecca

36

10

27.8

+£19.74

+54.8

Nicholls, P F

59

16

27.1

-£18.20

-30.8

Tizzard, C L

32

8

25.0

+£64.88

+202.8

George, T R

30

7

23.3

+£12.13

+40.4

Humphrey, Mrs S

39

9

23.1

+£23.21

+59.5

Smith, Mrs S J

35

8

22.9

+£43.25

+123.6

Vaughan, Tim

281

63

22.4

-£26.96

-9.6

Best, Jim

58

13

22.4

-£12.33

-21.3

Longsdon, C E

94

21

22.3

+£148.46

+157.9

Elliott, Gordon

35

7

20.0

-£9.02

-25.8

Hobbs, P J

81

16

19.8

+£13.57

+16.8

McCain Jnr, D

78

15

19.2

+£3.08

+3.9

Newland, Dr R D

37

7

18.9

-£8.00

-21.6

Lee, R

32

6

18.8

+£11.00

+34.4

Williams, Evan

140

24

17.1

+£19.04

+13.6

Bowen, P

76

13

17.1

+£2.28

+3.0

Pipe, D E

149

25

16.8

-£22.53

-15.1

King, A

31

5

16.1

-£2.85

-9.2

O’Brien, Fergal

52

8

15.4

+£22.01

+42.3

Twiston-Davies, N

89

13

14.6

-£7.64

-8.6

 

Some decent stats here for several trainers. All those with a strike rate of 20% or more are definitely worth a second glance.

 

Of course we also could do with knowing the trainers who struggle when running their charges for the first time having switched stables. Here are those whose who have secured a strike rate of under 9%:

 

Trainer

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Ford, R

34

3

8.8

-£16.50

-48.5

Llewellyn, B J

36

3

8.3

+£13.00

+36.1

Murphy, Ferdy

41

3

7.3

-£16.00

-39.0

O' Neill, Jonjo

112

8

7.1

-£81.00

-72.3

Young, Mrs L J

33

2

6.1

-£9.50

-28.8

Thorpe, Mrs A M

50

3

6.0

+£10.50

+21.0

Mullins, J W

34

2

5.9

-£13.25

-39.0

Powell, B G

52

3

5.8

-£23.87

-45.9

McPherson, G P

36

2

5.6

-£7.50

-20.8

Gordon, C

37

2

5.4

-£29.62

-80.1

Carroll, A W

39

2

5.1

-£2.00

-5.1

Moore, G L

39

2

5.1

-£35.02

-89.8

Mulholland, N P

42

2

4.8

-£26.00

-61.9

King, N B

46

2

4.3

-£13.50

-29.3

Corcoran, L

49

2

4.1

-£17.00

-34.7

Bailey, K C

35

1

2.9

-£29.00

-82.9

Henderson, P

36

1

2.8

-£32.00

-88.9

Hobbs, Mrs RM

41

1

2.4

-£32.00

-78.0

 

Interesting to see such high profile trainers as Jonjo O'Neill in the list of trainers that have a poor strike rate.

 

Finally I want to look at the trainers who were in charge LTO. I have focused on those whose runners have performed poorly in their first run for their new trainer:

 

LTO trainers (those to avoid)

 

Trainer

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Richards, N G

66

5

7.6

-£20.67

-31.3

Henderson, N J

134

10

7.5

-£72.50

-54.1

Mullins, J W

41

3

7.3

-£29.00

-70.7

Powell, B G

69

5

7.2

-£22.17

-32.1

Williams, Miss V

70

5

7.1

+£0.50

+0.7

Moore, G L

71

5

7.0

-£6.12

-8.6

Hughes, D T

44

3

6.8

-£17.27

-39.3

Hanlon, John Joseph

30

2

6.7

-£5.00

-16.7

Grant, C

31

2

6.5

-£25.00

-80.6

Swinbank, G A

48

3

6.3

+£41.50

+86.5

Rothwell, P J

32

2

6.3

-£9.00

-28.1

McCain Jnr, D

84

5

6.0

-£36.00

-42.9

Smith, Mrs S J

34

2

5.9

-£24.50

-72.1

Meade, Noel

32

1

3.1

-£25.50

-79.7

Dartnall, V R A

33

1

3.0

-£29.50

-89.4

O’Grady, E J

38

0

0.0

-£38.00

-100.0

 

Horses coming from the above stables LTO look worth serving.

 

Hopefully this article will help you decide whether a stable switcher is a good bet or not this National Hunt season. In general it seems they are not, but there are some positive angles which this article has highlighted.

 

 

 

 








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