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Bumper Races


 

Bumper Races

 

In this article I am going to look in detail at National hunt flat races / bumpers from a trainer perspective. The data for this article has been taken from January 2000 to August 2009. All profits/losses have been calculated to £1 level stakes.

 

Let us look at which trainers have performed the best over the period of study.

 

All bumpers (50 runs minimum) – positive trainers

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

C Tinkler

17

65

26.2

+£28.00

+43.1

N Henderson

123

472

26.1

+£13.10

+2.8

G Swinbank

70

271

25.8

-£4.07

-1.5

P Nicholls

87

350

24.9

-£1.39

-0.4

D Pipe

15

65

23.1

+£15.43

+23.7

L Lungo

52

233

22.3

-£28.01

-12.0

J O'Neill

85

418

20.3

-£97.58

-23.3

R Fahey

18

91

19.8

-£11.42

-12.6

V Dartnall

22

113

19.5

+£32.48

+28.7

N Chance

32

173

18.5

-£1.93

-1.1

N Richards

33

179

18.4

-£19.70

-11.0

N Gifford

13

80

16.3

+£13.88

+17.3

Miss V Williams

31

198

15.7

-£32.75

-16.5

C Egerton

15

96

15.6

-£18.01

-18.8

N Twiston-Davies

67

442

15.2

-£83.29

-18.8

A King

70

463

15.1

-£21.92

-4.7

 

Some good performances, but despite some solid looking strike rates, only 5 of the 17 trainers have managed to show a ‘blind’ profit.

 

From a negative perspective, here is a list of trainers to avoid!

 

All bumpers (50 runs minimum) – negative trainers

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

P Beaumont

2

134

1.5

-£98.00

-73.1

R Hodges

2

138

1.5

-£110.00

-79.7

C Roberts

1

69

1.5

-£54.00

-78.3

C Grant

2

150

1.3

-£139.00

-92.7

J O'Shea

1

83

1.2

-£62.00

-74.7

R Dickin

1

89

1.1

-£83.50

-93.8

C Thornton

1

90

1.1

-£87.38

-97.1

J Frost

0

104

0.0

-£104.00

-100.0

N Hawke

0

103

0.0

-£103.00

-100.0

F Murtagh

0

76

0.0

-£76.00

-100.0

R Rowe

0

72

0.0

-£72.00

-100.0

S Brookshaw

0

63

0.0

-£63.00

-100.0

M Barnes

0

62

0.0

-£62.00

-100.0

R Price

0

60

0.0

-£60.00

-100.0

H Manners

0

59

0.0

-£59.00

-100.0

A Carroll

0

57

0.0

-£57.00

-100.0

C Kellett

0

57

0.0

-£57.00

-100.0

J Turner

0

56

0.0

-£56.00

-100.0

M Mullineaux

0

56

0.0

-£56.00

-100.0

D Bridgwater

0

51

0.0

-£51.00

-100.0

 

All these trainers can be safely dismissed from calculations whenever they run debutants in bumpers.

 

My next area of focus was to look at horses making their debuts in bumpers. I wanted to see which trainers are worth noting with their debutants (if any), and which are not.

 

All bumper debutants (40 runs minimum) – positive trainers

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

N Henderson

77

233

33.1

+£63.90

+27.4

G Swinbank

25

102

24.5

+£30.39

+29.8

P Nicholls

43

179

24.0

+£4.69

+2.6

J O'Neill

44

219

20.1

-£48.88

-22.3

N Richards

21

107

19.6

+£3.22

+3.0

N Chance

16

87

18.4

+£23.00

+26.4

A King

33

189

17.5

+£85.88

+45.4

V Dartnall

10

59

17.0

+£18.35

+31.1

Miss V Williams

16

101

15.8

-£4.88

-4.8

N Twiston-Davies

35

226

15.5

-£61.01

-27.0

C R Egerton

8

53

15.1

-£4.00

-7.6

 

Both Nicky Henderson and Alan Swinbank have exceptional records with their bumper debutants. It is worth scrutinizing their performances in a little more detail. Hence, let us start with Henderson who has positive areas to note:

 

a)     has recorded 10 wins from 20 at Ludlow; 8 wins from 18 at Kempton;

 

b)     has excellent record in January (15 wins from 29) and also in February (11 wins from 31);

 

c)     has a 34% strike rate with French bred runners showing a profit of £29.60 (ROI +84.6%);

 

d)     has a 48% strike rate with favourites showing a profit of around 18%.

 

Swinbank too has some positive areas to note:

 

a)     has 10 wins from 30 with female runners for a healthy profit of £43.48 (ROI +144.9%);

 

b)     has 31% strike rate in the first three months of the year;

 

c)     4 wins from 7 at both Catterick and Wetherby.

 

Moving on to trainers who have a poor record with bumper debutants.

 

 

 

 

All bumper debutants (40 runs minimum) – negative trainers

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

E Williams

2

50

4.0

-£41.80

-83.6

C Tizzard

2

54

3.7

-£15.50

-28.7

Miss E Lavelle

2

67

3.0

-£58.00

-86.6

T Walford

1

42

2.4

-£29.00

-69.1

S Gollings

1

44

2.3

-£33.00

-75.0

R Alner

2

88

2.3

-£60.00

-68.2

Mrs L Normile

1

55

1.8

-£21.00

-38.2

R Dickin

1

57

1.8

-£51.50

-90.4

P Beaumont

1

58

1.7

-£37.00

-63.8

D McCain

1

61

1.6

-£53.00

-86.9

R Hodges

1

66

1.5

-£59.00

-89.4

C Grant

0

75

0.0

-£75.00

-100.0

J Frost

0

61

0.0

-£61.00

-100.0

N Hawke

0

58

0.0

-£58.00

-100.0

C Morlock

0

54

0.0

-£54.00

-100.0

C Down

0

53

0.0

-£53.00

-100.0

F Murtagh

0

45

0.0

-£45.00

-100.0

 

Interesting to see a few well know trainers in that list – Evan Williams, Robert Alner and Emma Lavelle being the most notable.

 

My next port of call, was to look at the record of trainers with bumper runners having their second career start.

 

Bumpers – second career start (30 runs minimum) – positive trainers

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

P Nicholls

31

112

27.7

+£5.60

+5.0

G Swinbank

20

77

26.0

-£20.10

-26.1

J O'Neill

29

112

25.9

-£22.85

-20.4

L Lungo

18

74

24.3

-£0.33

-0.4

N Chance

11

49

22.4

-£2.21

-4.5

N Richards

11

51

21.6

-£9.92

-19.5

N Henderson

31

150

20.7

-£20.60

-13.7

V Dartnall

7

34

20.6

+£8.50

+25.0

N Twiston-Davies

24

149

16.1

-£52.29

-35.1

O Sherwood

8

51

15.7

-£3.10

-6.1

 

It is interesting to see that Henderson and Swinbank despite solid records have shown losses of 26.1% and 13.7% respectively. This is significantly different to their debutant returns (see earlier).

 

Sticking with second career starts in bumpers – let us look at which trainers did well with runners that had won on their debut last time out:

 

Bumpers – second career start; won LTO (10 runs minimum) – positive trainers

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI

(%)

G Swinbank

12

21

57.1

+£8.43

+40.1

P Hobbs

4

11

36.4

+£0.48

+4.4

L Lungo

5

14

35.7

-£1.51

-10.8

P Nicholls

8

23

34.8

+£7.00

+30.4

J O'Neill

10

30

33.3

-£5.71

-19.0

J Jefferson

4

13

30.8

+£5.28

+40.6

N Henderson

13

48

27.1

+£15.19

+31.6

N Twiston-Davies

5

23

21.7

-£8.77

-38.1

A King

5

29

17.2

-£14.19

-48.9

 

Good performances again from Henderson and Swinbank. Their debutant winners are certainly worth noting on their second starts.

 

To conclude, it is not easy to make good money in bumpers, but armed with these stats should give you a sporting chance of coming out on top. I think you will need to be very selective, but it is possible.

 

 








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