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In this article I am going to look in detail at National hunt flat races / bumpers from a trainer perspective. The data for this article has been taken from January 2000 to August 2009. All profits/losses have been calculated to £1 level stakes.
Let us look at which trainers have performed the best over the period of study.
All bumpers (50 runs minimum) – positive trainers
Some good performances, but despite some solid looking strike rates, only 5 of the 17 trainers have managed to show a ‘blind’ profit.
From a negative perspective, here is a list of trainers to avoid!
All bumpers (50 runs minimum) – negative trainers
All these trainers can be safely dismissed from calculations whenever they run debutants in bumpers.
My next area of focus was to look at horses making their debuts in bumpers. I wanted to see which trainers are worth noting with their debutants (if any), and which are not.
All bumper debutants (40 runs minimum) – positive trainers
Both Nicky Henderson and Alan Swinbank have exceptional records with their bumper debutants. It is worth scrutinizing their performances in a little more detail. Hence, let us start with Henderson who has positive areas to note:
a) has recorded 10 wins from 20 at Ludlow; 8 wins from 18 at Kempton;
b) has excellent record in January (15 wins from 29) and also in February (11 wins from 31);
c) has a 34% strike rate with French bred runners showing a profit of £29.60 (ROI +84.6%);
d) has a 48% strike rate with favourites showing a profit of around 18%.
Swinbank too has some positive areas to note:
a) has 10 wins from 30 with female runners for a healthy profit of £43.48 (ROI +144.9%);
b) has 31% strike rate in the first three months of the year;
c) 4 wins from 7 at both Catterick and Wetherby.
Moving on to trainers who have a poor record with bumper debutants.
All bumper debutants (40 runs minimum) – negative trainers
Interesting to see a few well know trainers in that list – Evan Williams, Robert Alner and Emma Lavelle being the most notable.
My next port of call, was to look at the record of trainers with bumper runners having their second career start.
Bumpers – second career start (30 runs minimum) – positive trainers
It is interesting to see that Henderson and Swinbank despite solid records have shown losses of 26.1% and 13.7% respectively. This is significantly different to their debutant returns (see earlier).
Sticking with second career starts in bumpers – let us look at which trainers did well with runners that had won on their debut last time out:
Bumpers – second career start; won LTO (10 runs minimum) – positive trainers
Good performances again from Henderson and Swinbank. Their debutant winners are certainly worth noting on their second starts.
To conclude, it is not easy to make good money in bumpers, but armed with these stats should give you a sporting chance of coming out on top. I think you will need to be very selective, but it is possible.
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