Bumper Races

 

In this article I am going to look in detail at National hunt flat races / bumpers from a trainer perspective. The data for this article has been taken from January 2000 to August 2009. All profits/losses have been calculated to £1 level stakes.

 

Let us look at which trainers have performed the best over the period of study.

 

All bumpers (50 runs minimum) – positive trainers

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
C Tinkler	17	65	26.2	+£28.00	+43.1
N Henderson	123	472	26.1	+£13.10	+2.8
G Swinbank	70	271	25.8	-£4.07	-1.5
P Nicholls	87	350	24.9	-£1.39	-0.4
D Pipe	15	65	23.1	+£15.43	+23.7
L Lungo	52	233	22.3	-£28.01	-12.0
J O'Neill	85	418	20.3	-£97.58	-23.3
R Fahey	18	91	19.8	-£11.42	-12.6
V Dartnall	22	113	19.5	+£32.48	+28.7
N Chance	32	173	18.5	-£1.93	-1.1
N Richards	33	179	18.4	-£19.70	-11.0
N Gifford	13	80	16.3	+£13.88	+17.3
Miss V Williams	31	198	15.7	-£32.75	-16.5
C Egerton	15	96	15.6	-£18.01	-18.8
N Twiston-Davies	67	442	15.2	-£83.29	-18.8
A King	70	463	15.1	-£21.92	-4.7

 

Some good performances, but despite some solid looking strike rates, only 5 of the 17 trainers have managed to show a ‘blind’ profit.

 

From a negative perspective, here is a list of trainers to avoid!

 

All bumpers (50 runs minimum) – negative trainers

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
P Beaumont	2	134	1.5	-£98.00	-73.1
R Hodges	2	138	1.5	-£110.00	-79.7
C Roberts	1	69	1.5	-£54.00	-78.3
C Grant	2	150	1.3	-£139.00	-92.7
J O'Shea	1	83	1.2	-£62.00	-74.7
R Dickin	1	89	1.1	-£83.50	-93.8
C Thornton	1	90	1.1	-£87.38	-97.1
J Frost	0	104	0.0	-£104.00	-100.0
N Hawke	0	103	0.0	-£103.00	-100.0
F Murtagh	0	76	0.0	-£76.00	-100.0
R Rowe	0	72	0.0	-£72.00	-100.0
S Brookshaw	0	63	0.0	-£63.00	-100.0
M Barnes	0	62	0.0	-£62.00	-100.0
R Price	0	60	0.0	-£60.00	-100.0
H Manners	0	59	0.0	-£59.00	-100.0
A Carroll	0	57	0.0	-£57.00	-100.0
C Kellett	0	57	0.0	-£57.00	-100.0
J Turner	0	56	0.0	-£56.00	-100.0
M Mullineaux	0	56	0.0	-£56.00	-100.0
D Bridgwater	0	51	0.0	-£51.00	-100.0

 

All these trainers can be safely dismissed from calculations whenever they run debutants in bumpers.

 

My next area of focus was to look at horses making their debuts in bumpers. I wanted to see which trainers are worth noting with their debutants (if any), and which are not.

 

All bumper debutants (40 runs minimum) – positive trainers

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
N Henderson	77	233	33.1	+£63.90	+27.4
G Swinbank	25	102	24.5	+£30.39	+29.8
P Nicholls	43	179	24.0	+£4.69	+2.6
J O'Neill	44	219	20.1	-£48.88	-22.3
N Richards	21	107	19.6	+£3.22	+3.0
N Chance	16	87	18.4	+£23.00	+26.4
A King	33	189	17.5	+£85.88	+45.4
V Dartnall	10	59	17.0	+£18.35	+31.1
Miss V Williams	16	101	15.8	-£4.88	-4.8
N Twiston-Davies	35	226	15.5	-£61.01	-27.0
C R Egerton	8	53	15.1	-£4.00	-7.6

 

Both Nicky Henderson and Alan Swinbank have exceptional records with their bumper debutants. It is worth scrutinizing their performances in a little more detail. Hence, let us start with Henderson who has positive areas to note:

 

a)     has recorded 10 wins from 20 at Ludlow; 8 wins from 18 at Kempton;

 

b)     has excellent record in January (15 wins from 29) and also in February (11 wins from 31);

 

c)     has a 34% strike rate with French bred runners showing a profit of £29.60 (ROI +84.6%);

 

d)     has a 48% strike rate with favourites showing a profit of around 18%.

 

Swinbank too has some positive areas to note:

 

a)     has 10 wins from 30 with female runners for a healthy profit of £43.48 (ROI +144.9%);

 

b)     has 31% strike rate in the first three months of the year;

 

c)     4 wins from 7 at both Catterick and Wetherby.

 

Moving on to trainers who have a poor record with bumper debutants.

 

 

 

 

All bumper debutants (40 runs minimum) – negative trainers

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
E Williams	2	50	4.0	-£41.80	-83.6
C Tizzard	2	54	3.7	-£15.50	-28.7
Miss E Lavelle	2	67	3.0	-£58.00	-86.6
T Walford	1	42	2.4	-£29.00	-69.1
S Gollings	1	44	2.3	-£33.00	-75.0
R Alner	2	88	2.3	-£60.00	-68.2
Mrs L Normile	1	55	1.8	-£21.00	-38.2
R Dickin	1	57	1.8	-£51.50	-90.4
P Beaumont	1	58	1.7	-£37.00	-63.8
D McCain	1	61	1.6	-£53.00	-86.9
R Hodges	1	66	1.5	-£59.00	-89.4
C Grant	0	75	0.0	-£75.00	-100.0
J Frost	0	61	0.0	-£61.00	-100.0
N Hawke	0	58	0.0	-£58.00	-100.0
C Morlock	0	54	0.0	-£54.00	-100.0
C Down	0	53	0.0	-£53.00	-100.0
F Murtagh	0	45	0.0	-£45.00	-100.0

 

Interesting to see a few well know trainers in that list – Evan Williams, Robert Alner and Emma Lavelle being the most notable.

 

My next port of call, was to look at the record of trainers with bumper runners having their second career start.

 

Bumpers – second career start (30 runs minimum) – positive trainers

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
P Nicholls	31	112	27.7	+£5.60	+5.0
G Swinbank	20	77	26.0	-£20.10	-26.1
J O'Neill	29	112	25.9	-£22.85	-20.4
L Lungo	18	74	24.3	-£0.33	-0.4
N Chance	11	49	22.4	-£2.21	-4.5
N Richards	11	51	21.6	-£9.92	-19.5
N Henderson	31	150	20.7	-£20.60	-13.7
V Dartnall	7	34	20.6	+£8.50	+25.0
N Twiston-Davies	24	149	16.1	-£52.29	-35.1
O Sherwood	8	51	15.7	-£3.10	-6.1

 

It is interesting to see that Henderson and Swinbank despite solid records have shown losses of 26.1% and 13.7% respectively. This is significantly different to their debutant returns (see earlier).

 

Sticking with second career starts in bumpers – let us look at which trainers did well with runners that had won on their debut last time out:

 

Bumpers – second career start; won LTO (10 runs minimum) – positive trainers

 

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
G Swinbank	12	21	57.1	+£8.43	+40.1
P Hobbs	4	11	36.4	+£0.48	+4.4
L Lungo	5	14	35.7	-£1.51	-10.8
P Nicholls	8	23	34.8	+£7.00	+30.4
J O'Neill	10	30	33.3	-£5.71	-19.0
J Jefferson	4	13	30.8	+£5.28	+40.6
N Henderson	13	48	27.1	+£15.19	+31.6
N Twiston-Davies	5	23	21.7	-£8.77	-38.1
A King	5	29	17.2	-£14.19	-48.9

 

Good performances again from Henderson and Swinbank. Their debutant winners are certainly worth noting on their second starts.

 

To conclude, it is not easy to make good money in bumpers, but armed with these stats should give you a sporting chance of coming out on top. I think you will need to be very selective, but it is possible.