Ringmoor Down |
29-7-042.40 Goodwood |
FINISHER |
Speed rated At 1.3 Ringmoor was the only real “finisher” in the race, therefore the strategy is too hope the pace is too fast due to the number of front running types,and that around 3 furlongs out I will be able to see if Ringmoor is in a position to win.Hopefully I will get better than the 16 I have taken to half point stakes before the race. If he is in with a reasonable chance, I am prepared to play at 8.0 or above. |
This race goes like clockwork, the early pace set by Tychy is too fast and with most horses tying to stay with Tychy they start to tread water, at the 3F marker I can see Ringmoor is going well and worth supporting, with a “loaded” price of 8.0 I place the bet – Luckily it is matched at 16.0. Ringmoor goes on to win easily. |
Bet Placed½ Point at 16Won at 16.0 |
+8 |
If only the rest of the trial could continue like this, everything drops in to place.A great start |
Mituski |
30-7-044.45 Thirsk |
FINISHER |
Speed rated At 1.3 Mituski is well Handicapped and must have a decent chance at a track he likes.Available at 8.2 before the race, ½ Point is placed at 8.2 before the race, with another, ½ Point “loaded” at 5.6 |
Unfortunately Mitsuki never really gets close enough, due to the fast pace set by Brastwood, and although I have “loaded” a bet of 5.6, I decide not to place the bet. Mitsuki finishesun-placed |
No BetUn-placed |
0 |
In this case, if the “Finisher” is not close enough at the vital moment, do not play. Save your money, this is one of the major advantages of betting In Running. |
Caribbean Coral |
31-7-043.35 Goodwood |
FINISHER |
I have noticed that just about all the horses drawn low inn the Stewards Cup are front or near front runners, this I hope will result in a “finisher” coming through to win the stand side race, and hopefully the race overall. The only finisher I can see is Caribbean Coral Speed rated at 2.0, who is available at 18.0, so I place a ½ Point win at 18.0, and look to back Caribbean In Running ½ Point at 12.0 or better if the race goes as anticipated. |
Although Caribbean is slow out of the stalls, he seems to be closing on leader Raccoon as they approach 3F out, I look up and se 50.0 is available I cannot resist and take the bet, although I can see at this point that Pivotal Point has come through to lead and is still going well, I am hoping he will stop in the last furlong, unfortunately this is a poor decision and I lose the ½ Point |
Bet placed½ Point at 50Un-placed |
-0.5 |
Bad decision.On reflection I should have withheld the bet.Not placing the bet is as much of the “In Running” strategy as placing a bet. |
Salviati |
1-8-043.05 Newbury |
FINISHER |
Speed rated At 1.8 Salviati is a finisher who has not been breaking well according to Dave Renham on the D2W message, this looks a race where a finisher will have a decent chance, as again there are plenty of front running types.I back Salviati at 6.6 ½ Point before the race, and “load” another ½ Point bet at 5.0, hoping Salviati will break well ! |
The race starts with fast breaking Little Edward leading up and although not a great start Salviati breaks OK, the good news is he seems to be going well, and I plat the loaded bet, and see it is matched at 8.0. Salviati runs past a number of beaten horses to win |
Bet PlacedWon 8.0 |
+4 |
The use of the D2W Seed ratings works superbly on this occasion |
Vita Spericolata |
1-8-044.35 Chester |
FRONT |
Rated At 4.0 Vita’s is a horse that likes Chester and has won this race twice before by “burning off” the opposition. Although I am not confident he will win I reckon he has a chance, and I think he can lead up and get the rest of the bridle. Therefore I decide top back Vita’s at 6.6 looking to lay him for a free bet, I am looking to lay at 3.3 ! |
Vita’s leads up until 2F out, but unfortunately the price only drops to around 5.0, before rapidly increasing. The chance to lay has gone, and Talbot Avenue takes over before Rum Point comes through in the final furlong to win |
Bet Placed before race1 PointUn-placed |
-1 |
Unfortunately Vita’s doesn’t manage to get a decent lead and therefore the price does not fall low enough to enable a lay bet. |
Double M |
2-8-04XXXXXXXXX |
FINISHER |
Double M looks a good bet but the draw is the problem.However this may play into our hands, as the price may be inflated.Lock Inch is well drawn and should go close½ point win Double M at 6.4 before the off with a further ½ Point win placed at 5.5 if Double M is in contention 3F out ! |
Got out early and well positioned backed at 5.5 matched at 8.2 (Could have got 11.0)beaten a Short head by David’s Mark |
Bet placed½ Point at 8.0Un-placed |
-0.5 |
Very happy with this bet, simply unlucky at the finish. |
Blunham |
3-8-04XXXXXXX |
FRONT |
In a poor race I can see no obvious front runner I will take a chance that speed rated 3.2 Bulham can get to the front and set a steady pace, before kicking on to win. 1 Point win placed before the off on Betfair at 16.0w with a view to laying off about 2-3 furlongs out at 8.0 |
Blunham runs near the front, and there is an opportunity to lay off at 12.0, this is notTaken and from then of the chance is gone !Horse does not get home, and trails in a poor 12th ! |
Bet Placed before race1 PointUn-placed |
-1 |
Looking at my 2 lay bets I think I am setting my lay price too high and will increase this from 50% to around 70%.Lets see what happens. |
Aspo |
4-8-04XXXXXXx |
FINISHER |
Aspo looks a promising finisher speed rated at 1.8 and hopefully the race will be set up for Aspo to go past beaten horses. Manage to get a very good 20.0 on Betfair at ½ Point, looking to get another ½ Point at 12.0 or more if the race develops well. |
Bloody hell! Aspo is up with the front-runners, don’t like this, but he is in contention!As the race develops I decide to change tactics and look to lay for a free bet !2F out he looks to be stopping to me, lay at 5.2, free bet at over 14.0, however he starts to fall away, still nothing lost ! |
Bet Placed before race½ Point 20.0Due to change is predicted pattern, decide to lay also at ½ Point but only 5.2Un-placed |
0 |
Good decision, be prepared to change tactics if things don’t go as expected. I could have let the bet continue without laying off, but as the horse was not running as expected this would have been foolish ! |
Rileys Dream |
5-8-04XXXXXXX |
FINISHER |
Poor race, and I hope the weight advantage Rileys Dream has may over a number of these allow me a free bet, backed at 1 point 10.0 hoping to lay at 7.0 for free bet ! |
At the off my TV picture disappears ! I monitor the price changes on Betfair and can see that Riley’s price is dropping, without any pictures I decide I must lay off even though the price continues to drop. Lay Off 1 Point at 3.5 |
Typical the horse wins!!Still a good profit! |
+3.5 |
Not something I had considered loss of picture, however by monitoring the prices I can almost see how the race is going !The decision to lay off was sensible and better than my plan at the start |
American Cousin |
6-8-04XXXXXX |
FINISHER |
To me American Cousin is the best horse in the race, and around 6.4 is worth a ½ point win, and another ½point if getting close enough In Running, Speed Rated at 1.8 he should be finishing well and looks a very strong play to me |
American Cousin in rear, ridden and headway over 2f out, chance inside final furlong but not close enough to warrant the extra ½ point. Jedeyedd came through to win |
Good run, but never really close enough to warrant the In Running bet ! |
0 |
Another case of not spending the extra ½ point if the horse is not going to win ! |
Le Meridien |
7-8-04XXXXX |
FINISHER |
A horse I have followed over its last few runs, not always consistent, but looks a decent bet in this open contest, Speed rated at 2.2 it is in a race with a far amount of finishers, and hopefully will manage to get a run ½ point at 13.5 before the race. Will look to support at around 8.0 if in a good enough position at 3F out |
My Girl Pearl led up, while Le Meridien was always prominent and led 2f out, ridden until headed near finish by Jazzy Millennium ran on under pressure to lead last strides. I managed to lay the bet off at 3.6 just over 1F out, as I could see Jazzy was going well ! |
Really close just beaten in the last few strides, gutted that I haven’t won but at least laying off saved the stake ! |
0 |
Again think on your feet, I was looking to support Le Meridien but as he was looking like winning, a lay to give a free bet was the option ! |
Mirasol Princess |
8-8-04XXXXX |
FINISHER |
Well drawn and possible value In Running, A ½ point win at 11.0 before the race and hopefully another ½ point if close enough 2F out ! |
In rear and ridden along, not promising but hopefully the rest are going to quick !As they round the bend Mirasol looks good, another ½ point at 7.6, and a clear run up the centre produces a great result |
Race goes as hoped for ! |
+3.8 |
Great winner |
Marsad |
9-8-047.15 Windsor |
FRONT RUNNER |
With the weather changing the going at Windsor I decide I need to play a low drawn horse, and front runner speed rated 4.3 Marsad looks a possible “Play to Lay” at 21.I will look to lay of at 15.0 for a free bet ! |
Marsad doesn’t hit the front, but sits in a prominent position. Going OK I look to lay off at 15.0, the problem is he remains around 18.0, as I wait for the race to develop the price drifts and the chance is gone ! |
Marsad trails in about 6th.Could have laid off at 18.0 but was not positive – mistake as it cost me a point ! |
-1 |
Need to accept the horse will not win earlier and lay off to avoid a loss ! |
Jinksonthehouse |
10-8-044.45 Bath |
FINISHER |
Jinksonthehouse looks to have a decent chance in a race which is very open, and around 8.4 is worth a ½ point win, and another ½ point if getting close enough In Running, Speed Rated at 2.8 he should be finishing well and looks a decent bet to me as there are a lot of prominent horses in the race |
Jinksonthehouse breaks well and races in mid division making headway over 2f out, has a chance inside final furlong but not close enough to warrant the extra ½ point. By the time I think of laying the price is 34 |
Good run, but never really close enough to warrant the In Running bet ! Again I could have layed off if quick enough. |
0 |
Another case of not spending the extra ½ point if the horse is not going to win ! |
Dizzy in the Head |
11-8-048.00 Hamilton |
FINISHER |
Tough decision between finisher Ulysees and front runner Dizzy in the Head, in the end I decide support Dizzy who is speed rated 4.2 whilst Ulysees is speed rated 2.3. I may regret this but I would always prefer to be with a front-runner on very soft ground. Backed at 5.2 I will look to lay off ay 2.8 |
Dizzy not only in front but goes away, decide to lay off just in case he runs out of steam! Laid off at 2.2 Wins easily ! |
Good run, and supporting the front-runner worked well |
+3 |
Great decision and must consider this strategy again on soft going ! |
The Lord |
12-8-047.00 Haydock |
FINISHER |
Similar to yesterday I will support the front-runner. The Lord who is speed rated only 3.3 but should still lead up against a bunch of finishers !Backed at 17.0, I will look to lay off at 12.0 |
The Lord drops out in to 4th, should I lay off early at 15.0, whilst thinking about it the price goes out to 22 !Prince of Blues leads up, the race is not going as planned, eventually Sahara Prince storms through o win easily ! |
Simply didn’t work out tonight.I had assumed The Lord would lead up but this was a wrong decision ! |
-1 |
Don’t assume a horse rated 3.3 (mid division runner) will lead up just because he is the highest rated |
Alastair Smelly |
13-8-04XXXXX |
FINISHER |
Difficult today so I’ll risk only a total of ½ point, Alastair Smelly has been running on the all weather of late and may be better on these soft conditions ¼ Point at 60 on Betfair before the race and possibly another ¼ points if he is in contention 2F out ! |
Soaked leads up and sets a decent pace. Alastair barely gets into contention. I decide not to place the extra ¼ point, White Ledger runs past beaten horses to secure victory |
Never really in contention Accept defeat and no extra ¼ point bet placed |
0 |
Perhaps the chance was reflected in the massive price.Too speculative, I need to pick finishers with a better chance |
Double M |
14-8-04.35 New |
FINISHER |
Double M speed rated at 2.0 looks a decent bet if in contention at 6.4 before the off, ½ point at 6.4 and another ½ point if in a decent position 2F out. |
Brave Burt leads up and is going well, Double M going OK, and has drifted to 11.0 at the half way stage, I decide to play, unfortunately Double M falls away rapidly and Strawberry Patch comes through to win |
Race panned out as per the speed ratings, except for the last furlong |
-0.5 |
Played the bet as I thought, but on this occasion Double M failed to finish strongly. |
BA Highflyer |
15-8-04.30 Bath |
FINISHER |
Ran well at Salisbury a few days ago I think BA Highflyer will get this stiff trip OK at Bath as there are no real front runners speed rated at 3.0, I bet 0.5 point at 8.0 on Betfair and a further possible 0.5 point In Running is the bet. |
Falls behind early on before unfortunately being brought down – clearly no further bet placed |
No Bet |
0 |
Disaster as horse is brought downNo betHorse is OK ! |
Pickled Eyes |
16-8-06.40 Windsor |
FRONT RUNNER |
The 3 favourites all have a great chance, but I’ll take a chance with Piccled eyes speed rated at 3.3, well drawn and looks a decent proposition to back before the race at 15.0 and hope to lay off at 10.0 ! |
Unusually I am able to lay off before the race at 9.8 !So I doWhy wait for the opportunity In Running |
Onlytime- willtell wins, unfortunately Piccled Eyes finishes about 5th, still at least no damage done ! |
0 |
Flexibility works in this case, I am able lay off at a price I would have accepted In Running, |
Fonthill Road |
17-8-04.45 York |
FINISHER |
Good to soft ground suggests a finisher can win, I like the look of Fonthill Road speed rated at 2.2, there is enough pace in the race with Mr Wolf likely to lead up ! ½ Point at 7.4 on Betfair before the race and possibly another ½ point if he is in contention 2F out ! |
Mr Wolf does lead up and I am slightly concerned as Fonthill is well of the pace, however he is still going OK.About 3F out Fonthill is available at 12.0 – Yes please !Although I’ve only loaded 6.0, Betfair automatically matches the best price! |
Looks like Tom Tum is going to beat me until the last few strides when Fonthill comes through to win ! |
+6 |
Nice Winner and for once the race goes to plan ! |
Soba Jones |
18-8-08.10 Nottingham |
FRONT RUNNER |
I’ll take a chance with Soba Jones speed rated at 3.3, well drawn and possibly with conditions to suit (smallish field and soft going) looks a decent proposition to back before the race at 13.5 and hope to lay offat 9.0 ! |
Breaks OK and runs in mid-division start to be chased along about 3F out, but still in with a chance, I decide lay off at the 8.0 requested.This proves a good decision |
Finishes about 5th and I have managed to lay off for a free bet, but I still can’t get a front running winner ! |
0 |
Initial play to lay for free bet works, but unfortunately no profit |
So Sober |
19-8-03.45 South |
FINISHER |
Speed rated At 1.8 So Sober ran well last time and looks to have a fair chance; in a race with plenty of pace.Available at 10.5 before the race, ½ Point is placed at 10.5 before the race, with another, ½ Point “loaded” at 7.6 if the win looks “on” 2F out ! |
The Leather Wedge leads up but it is soon clear that the low/middle numbers are going better, I keep an eye on the race, but accept at the half way stage that So Sober can’t win from his high draw ! |
Lost initial ½ but take note of “draw” bias for future races at Southwell ! |
0 |
Picked the wrong side. |
Pulse |
20-8-044.45 Sand |
FRONT(ISH) |
In a poor race I can see no obvious front runner I will take a chance that speed rated 3.2 Pulse can get to the front and set a steady pace, before kicking on to win. 1 Point win placed before the off on Betfair at 10.5 with a view to laying off about 2-3 furlongs out at 7.0 |
Pulse runs near the front, just behind surprise leader Mayzin at the 2F marker there is an opportunity to lay off at 4.0, this time I take it, as although going OK I don’t think it will win !Horse gets beaten (Only just) finishing 4th. |
Bet Placed before race1 PointUn-placed |
0 |
Good lay again- no win, but at least no loss ! |