Betfair “In Running” – Neil Dawkins

Let me start of by saying that in the Free Journal 2 edition I suggested that if you followed all horses that were “backed” overnight on Betfair in non-handicap races with 8 or 9 runners you may make a profit.

Well if any of you have looked at the Punter-profit message board where the Breakfast with Betfair article was discussed you would have seen that a trial of the system did not work out as well as I had hoped, and unfortunately did return a loss although there were a number of decent winners.

I may return to a similar “exchange system” analysis during the National Hunt season.Now on to this month’s article, I have been a fan of “In Running” betting since it first started years ago.I must say here and now that I only see “In Running” betting as a supplement to normal betting, you cannot guarantee the price, or amount of money you will be able to match, and therefore this should only be treated as a “bonus if it pays off.

I cannot think of anything more sickening than really fancying a horse available at 8-1, not backing before the race, with the intention of backing it In Running. , Only to find that nobody offers better than £7 at 2.8 during the race which you don’t take, and it then goes and romps home by 3 lengths – absolutely gutted. However as a supplementary system it is particularly useful in my opinion for at least 2 of the following 3 methods of betting.

1. To simply watch the race and see a horse “travelling” well and getting a few quid on as the race develops. However if you are not monitoring a particular horse or 2, you can run in to problems with identifying which horse you are seeing, an often the colours are similar, and the commentary although excellent can be subject to the odd error.

2. To back horses that “finish” well, in other words when others have priced them up as “beaten” because they are near the back, yet you believe they will coming surging through with a late run and gain you a handsome profit!

3. The third method is to initially back front runners who are available at a decent price, and for this article I have decided a minimum of 10 on Betfair, then as the race develops, lay the horse at a “hopefully” shorter price thereby guaranteeing either a free “bet to nothing” or a small profit whatever the result.

I have used method “1” but don’t recommend it as a method of making money, only as an interesting accessory when watching a race!

We have all watched a race and seen a horse going well and wished we could get a bet on at that moment. The problem comes, that unless you are certain who that horse is, you will need to look away to check the colours etc, or the TV pictures may swap to another angle. All of these factors will lose you the “edge”, and unless you know whether the horse will stay etc you could well be backing a 6 furlong sprinter in a mile race, who looks to be travelling well 3 furlongs out, but in reality will not stay.

Planning is vital if you are going to come out on top !

However the other 2 systems are worth looking at and the table below show how I got on by operating both methods on certain races between 29 July and 20 August.

I limited the selections to 5-7 Furlong races as I believe they offer the fastest changing prices and therefore the best opportunity to plan ahead and make money.!

Another key element in my “strategy” was the use of the excellent Speed Ratings supplied by Terry West, via the Drawn2Win Daily message.

These ratings enabled me to select races where I believed the front-runners or hold up horses would have an advantage.The Speed ratings give a figure between 1and 5 which indicate the likely “position” of each horse in the race. From this we can determine the probable way the race will develop. “5” being an out and out lead horse and “1” being a horse than runs well off the pace and looks to finish strongly, all other speed ratings indicate the likely “In Running” position of the horse.

Basically I am looking to back Hold Up (Finishers) horses when there is a lot of pace in the race, or to back front runners with a view to laying off in the middle of the race, especially if they are the only front runner and may get an easy lead

The Table is attached at the bottom of the article.

The transmission times of the various TV Channels that cover horse racing are another vital area that needs to be taken into account when using “In Running”.

At the Races had about a 5 second delay, between what is happening live at the track and what you see on the TV, which does cause a problem with “In Running” betting, mainly caused by people on course betting as the race develops with a distinct advantage over ATR viewers. Racing UK have a transmission delay of around 1-2 seconds and therefore offer “In Running” punters at home, a reasonable opportunity to compete with those on course.

Racing UK are certainly faster than ATR but this I am certain is purely down to “technical” reasons involving encryption and nothing do to with ATR deliberately delaying the pictures as has been suggested in some quarters. Therefore I would strongly recommend that “In Running” betting is limited ideally to BBC and Channel 4 covered races as these have the smallest transmission delay.

“In Running” Strategy

1. Make sure you know the Colours of your Jockey including cap colour.
  (The cameras often cut away and you need to be able to identify your "prospective" bet at all times).

2. If the option is there to view the race on the BBC or Ch4 always use them rather than “At the Races” or Racing UK as there is a delay in transmission. (Significant delay on ATR).

3. "In Running" is particularly useful for horses that finish well as the price will drift as the race starts to unfold, however these horses often need "luck in running" so you need to delay your bet until you can see how the race is developing.

4. Look at the race “profile” well in advance, make sure the race will be run to suit your horses running style, if not then you should not be looking to place a bet !

5. As there is often very quick movement in this betting market you need to be prepared to act quickly,so I suggest the best method is as soon as the race is off, select a bet on the horse you fancy, and enter the stake you are prepared to wager, however do not accept the best price that Betfair offer at that moment , rather select a much lower price, for example as the race starts the horse may be on offer at 6.8 on Betfair, when you select this bet do not watch the race with 6.8 selected, instead enter a price around 3.0, (This is a price you determine before the race is the minimum you will accept about 2F from the finish), you then sit with the option to confirm the bet Yes/No. At this point do not confirm the bet!

As the race unfolds keep-pressing the update icon on the Betfair top right hand corner and watch the prices change. If and when you think your horse has a decent chance, confirm the bet.

As you have already "loaded" the bet, you will only need about 0.3 seconds to place the bet.
As other people may be looking to do the same, the price may start to collapse, however as you have allowed for this by selecting a lower price than currently available, you are very likely to get your bet on !

Don't forget Betfair will always match you with the best price available, so no need to worry about missing out on great price.

However if the price drops from say 6.8 to 6.4 as you place your bet, you will not have to wait for Betfair to tell you the bet is "Unmatched" and then have to re-enter a bet at a new price, which will be continuing to collapse if your thoughts on the horse finishing well are correct.

Another method of getting your bets on very quickly during “In Running” is described belowI hasten to add this is not my preferred method, as it does leave you the problem of wrong price or wager selection, without the back-up of the confirmation box !!

When you place a bet, there is a confirmation screen that asks you to check your odds and stake. By un-ticking the box at the bottom “Show this screen when placing bets? ”, you can bypass this screen and place the bet immediately.

Use the keyboard to place bets. Hit the price, key in the stake and hit enter. The bet will be instantly processed.

The advantage with "In Running" betting when looking to support “finishers”, is that if the gap doesn't come, or the horse runs poorly, you can simply allow the race to complete and not bother placing a bet.
The downside is you can never be sure of the price you will get or the amount you  will be able to match.
  

Good Luck