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Back to Breeding
In July last year I wrote a short article on using breeding as a winner finding tool. Breeding always comes to light at this time of year as discussions about Derby runners revolve around – will “x” stay the trip? Now this year’s Derby is over, breeding will start to take a back seat again, until end of August / beginning of September when discussions will start up again as the St Leger comes under the spotlight.
The breeding of the horse is generally used by a select band of punters, and is an area of horse racing that demands more attention from the betting public. The sire is the father of the respective horse, and a sire is often responsible for many of the influences and traits handed down to its progeny (offspring). Hence if the sire was best on soft ground, then there is a reasonable chance that his offspring will be as well. Sire stats are especially useful for attempting to unravel the relative merits of lightly raced horses (often 2 year olds). Damsires (father of the dam of the horse) is another area of interest in terms of breeding. Their stats also offer the potential to find further trends that will help you, the punter, the opportunity to gain an “edge” over your rivals.
For this article I have looked in detailed at two well known sires – the data is taken from the last 10 years (turf races only):
RAINBOW QUEST – as a racehorse Rainbow Quest won two Group 1s - the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and the Coronation Cup. He won 6 of his 14 career starts and since being retired has become a stallion that has produced numerous good horses. Here is his overall record since 1997:
Age – 2yos have a poor record – 19 wins from 197 (SR 9.6%) for a loss of £122.30 (ROI–62.1%). This is quite a significant loss when comparing it to the 5% loss on all runners. 3yos have an SR of over 19% in 3yo only races and actually make a small profit, while 4yos have a strike rate of round 13% but have made decent profits equating to around 45%.
Courses – the progeny of Rainbow Quest have done particularly well at the following four courses:
From a negative perspective the results have not been good at Epsom – 2 wins from 35 (SR 5.7%) for a loss of £23.50 (ROI –67.1%).
Class – some interesting findings here. Looking lower class races, this is an area where Rainbow Quest’s progeny have done well. In Class 6 races or lower the results are 18 wins from 100 (SR 18%) for a profit £104.54 (ROI +104.5%). Group races are an area worth commenting upon. In Group 1 races there have been only 2 wins from 30 (SR 6.7%) for a loss of £22.75 (ROI –75.8%). However, there has been a much better record in Group 2/3 races – 17 wins from 89 (SR 19.1%) for a profit £19.75 (ROI +22.2%).
Distance – this seems to be key. Let us look at 7f or shorter first:
On this evidence progeny of Rainbow Quest have a definite preference for 1m4f – 1m6f. In terms of strike rate they are more than twice as likely to win than horses racing at 7f or shorter. The difference in profit / loss is considerable also. If you had placed £10 on every horse running at 7f or shorter, you would have lost £744.20, whereas if you placed the same amount on all runners from 1m 4f to 1m 6f you would have won £1802.20.
Going – the table below illustrates the results for different types of ground conditions:
In terms of strike rate firm ground runners do best; remaining strike rates are similar, but the ROI is interesting. It seems that in terms of profits, Rainbow Quest progeny perform significantly worse on soft or heavy.
Hence with a bit of “digging” we have found some interesting statistics, and more importantly statistics that not many punters will appreciate. Hence, there could be some “value” to be found in future races. However, Rainbow Quest is reaching the end of his stallion career and hence it is important for punters interested in breeding stats to start looking at some of the “new kids on the block”. One such sire is Montjeu.
Time of Year – it is noticeable that Montjeu seems to have preference for the summer months:
This seems to be a strong stat worth noting. Indeed it will come as no surprise (seeing his preference for the summer months) that his record on good to firm or firmer is excellent – 44 wins from 211 (SR 20.9%) for a profit of £95.46 (ROI +45.2%). Montjeu in his career handled all going winning on heavy through to good to firm and his progeny seem to handle soft/heavy ground also. There is limited data at present, but 13 wins from 71 (SR 18.3%) for a profit of £25.54 (ROI +36%) is a good start. Remarkable his strike rate on good or good to soft ground is only 8.1%, so early indications are that the progeny of Montjeu prefer more extremes of going.
Other stats to note – his early record with runners at Ascot is good (5 wins and 4 placed from 18), while at Windsor his progeny have struggled (1 win from 34). In Group races he has performed brilliantly at both Group 1 and 2 level with a combined total of 11 wins from just 41 runners (SR 26.8%) for a profit of £38.65 (ROI +94.3%). The optimum trip at present looks around 1m 4f with his record from 1m 3½f to 1m 4 ½f reading 27 wins from 130 runners (SR 20.8%) for a profit of £45.42 (ROI +34.9%).
Therefore, for the next 3 months, progeny of Montjeu should be worth following under the right conditions.
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