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August Trainers 2011
August Trainers (Flat ’05-’10) by David Renham
Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of August with data taken from 2005 to 2010. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.
Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:
All races (Aug 05-10) – 70 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)
Sir Mark Prescott had the best strike rate in June and July as well, which shows clearly what time of the year he targets. One Prescott angle in August that is worth noting is when he saddles a runner in the top four of the betting. These runners have produced 60 winners from 169 runners (SR 35.5%) for a profit of £35.16 (ROI +20.8%). An even more impressive angle has been backing Prescott runners in August who are returning to the track within 2 weeks (eg 14 days or less since last run) – these runners have secured 42 wins from 109 (SR 38.5%) for a profit of £62.10 (ROI +57%).
John Gosden also traditionally does well in August as the overall figures show. A positive angle on Gosden runners has been by following the market – horses priced 13/2 or shorter have provided 76 winners from 230 runners (SR 33%) for a profit of £44.75 (ROI +19.5%). Also if you focus on runners at Grade 1 tracks only his record reads 44 winners from 188 (SR 23.4%) for a profit of £81.58 (ROI +43.4%).
As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:
All races (Aug 05-10) – 70 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)
Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed all bar one of the trainers in the above table have shown losses of over 45%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.
As I have mentioned in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in August since 2005. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:
All 2yo maiden races (Aug 05-10) – 30 runs minimum (SR 15%+)
This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It should be noted that John Gosden’s stats are skewed somewhat by a 50/1 winner – take that away and he would have recorded losses overall. Ralph Beckett’s profits are impressive and they are down to several decent priced winners – indeed 7 of his 16 winners have been double figure prices. Hence, don’t be put off if his runners are decent prices.
Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens. I have decided to list all the trainers that have had 20 runs or more regardless of strike rate:
All 3yos running in maiden races (Aug 05-10) – 20 runs minimum
The top three trainers in the table all have decent strike rates as well as showing a profit – hence they are worth close scrutiny when running horses in such races.
Saeed Bin Suroor tops the list and don’t be put off my horses making their career debuts in these races as he has a 32% strike rate with such animals and returns of 38% have been achieved.
I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives to be taken from the data.
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