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August Trainers 2011


 

August Trainers (Flat ’05-’10) by David Renham

 

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of August with data taken from 2005 to 2010. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

 

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first: 

 

All races (Aug 05-10) – 70 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

63

230

27.4

+£22.16

+9.6

Saeed Bin Suroor

101

394

25.6

-£12.18

-3.1

John Gosden

87

370

23.5

+£58.75

+15.9

Sir Michael Stoute

81

430

18.8

-£39.49

-9.2

Henry Cecil

35

204

17.2

-£49.13

-24.1

Robert Cowell

20

121

16.5

+£4.75

+3.9

Jeremy Noseda

38

233

16.3

-£116.05

-49.8

Peter Makin

20

123

16.3

-£10.06

-8.2

James Fanshawe

34

216

15.7

-£30.13

-14.0

Mark Johnston

138

892

15.5

-£22.66

-2.5

William Haggas

44

285

15.4

-£25.80

-9.1

Luca Cumani

49

325

15.1

-£88.70

-27.3

Edward Vaughan

17

113

15.0

+£14.88

+13.2

Hughie Morrison

46

306

15.0

+£5.62

+1.8

Marcus Tregoning

35

234

15.0

+£8.62

+3.7

Linda Stubbs

13

87

14.9

+£51.50

+59.2

BarryHills

82

556

14.8

-£113.23

-20.4

Julie Camacho

11

76

14.5

+£38.75

+51.0

Jane Chapple-Hyam

13

90

14.4

+£93.50

+103.9

Alan Brown

10

70

14.3

+£13.10

+18.7

David Nicholls

67

487

13.8

+£41.40

+8.5

Roger Charlton

29

211

13.7

-£45.45

-21.5

Ralph Beckett

40

292

13.7

+£62.19

+21.3

Tom Tate

16

118

13.6

+£87.50

+74.2

Clive Cox

32

240

13.3

+£3.01

+1.3

R Guest

12

91

13.2

+£48.44

+53.2

John Spearing

18

137

13.1

+£237.58

+173.4

Michael Quinn

11

84

13.1

+£11.75

+14.0

Brian Meehan

63

484

13.0

-£139.88

-28.9

 

Sir Mark Prescott had the best strike rate in June and July as well, which shows clearly what time of the year he targets. One Prescott angle in August that is worth noting is when he saddles a runner in the top four of the betting. These runners have produced 60 winners from 169 runners (SR 35.5%) for a profit of £35.16 (ROI +20.8%). An even more impressive angle has been backing Prescott runners in August who are returning to the track within 2 weeks (eg 14 days or less since last run) – these runners have secured 42 wins from 109 (SR 38.5%) for a profit of £62.10 (ROI +57%).

 

John Gosden also traditionally does well in August as the overall figures show. A positive angle on Gosden runners has been by following the market – horses priced 13/2 or shorter have provided 76 winners from 230 runners (SR 33%) for a profit of £44.75 (ROI +19.5%). Also if you focus on runners at Grade 1 tracks only his record reads 44 winners from 188 (SR 23.4%) for a profit of £81.58 (ROI +43.4%).

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (Aug 05-10) – 70 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Noel Wilson

7

140

5.0

-£96.00

-68.6

Michael Mullineaux

5

103

4.9

-£78.67

-76.4

Jonathan Geake

5

103

4.9

-£63.25

-61.4

Alan Berry

4

83

4.8

-£8.00

-9.6

Peter Hiatt

15

338

4.4

-£201.25

-59.5

Tony Carroll

5

114

4.4

-£76.17

-66.8

Peter Grayson

10

235

4.3

-£157.09

-66.9

Geraldine Rees

6

142

4.2

-£75.00

-52.8

Bill Turner

3

76

4.0

-£41.50

-54.6

Philip McBride

4

107

3.7

-£71.00

-66.4

J R Jenkins

3

81

3.7

-£62.75

-77.5

Brendan Powell

6

179

3.4

-£93.50

-52.2

Michael Attwater

5

155

3.2

-£101.50

-65.5

Derek Shaw

3

103

2.9

-£71.50

-69.4

Dominic Ffrench Davis

4

150

2.7

-£114.75

-76.5

John Wainwright

2

92

2.2

-£75.50

-82.1

P C Haslam

2

104

1.9

-£49.00

-47.1

Michael Chapman

2

105

1.9

-£89.00

-84.8

Donal Nolan

1

82

1.2

-£65.00

-79.3

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed all bar one of the trainers in the above table have shown losses of over 45%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

 

As I have mentioned in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in August since 2005. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (Aug 05-10) – 30 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Saeed Bin Suroor

27

103

26.2

-£6.54

-6.4

John Gosden

23

99

23.2

+£37.34

+37.7

Walter Swinburn

9

44

20.5

+£43.48

+98.8

Andrew Balding

15

74

20.3

+£39.58

+53.5

Mark Johnston

40

205

19.5

+£46.85

+22.9

Ralph Beckett

16

82

19.5

+£134.58

+164.1

Jeremy Noseda

9

50

18.0

-£25.58

-51.2

Tom Dascombe

7

39

18.0

-£0.77

-2.0

Henry Cecil

7

40

17.5

+£2.75

+6.9

Edward Vaughan

5

30

16.7

+£0.88

+2.9

Sir Michael Stoute

17

105

16.2

-£15.28

-14.6

Alan Swinbank

7

44

15.9

+£26.47

+60.2

Peter Winkworth

8

52

15.4

+£20.20

+38.9

Hughie Morrison

5

34

14.7

+£39.33

+115.7

David Simcock

7

48

14.6

+£0.43

+0.9

Paul Cole

9

62

14.5

-£19.38

-31.3

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It should be noted that John Gosden’s stats are skewed somewhat by a 50/1 winner – take that away and he would have recorded losses overall. Ralph Beckett’s profits are impressive and they are down to several decent priced winners – indeed 7 of his 16 winners have been double figure prices. Hence, don’t be put off if his runners are decent prices.

 

Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens. I have decided to list all the trainers that have had 20 runs or more regardless of strike rate:

 

All 3yos running in maiden races (Aug 05-10) – 20 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Saeed Bin Suroor

23

60

38.3

+£5.45

+9.1

Sir Mark Prescott

7

24

29.2

+£5.20

+21.7

Barry Hills

21

73

28.8

+£4.15

+5.7

Sir Michael Stoute

15

58

25.9

-£11.92

-20.6

John Gosden

22

91

24.2

-£29.57

-32.5

Marcus Tregoning

14

60

23.3

+£42.41

+70.7

Jeremy Noseda

12

52

23.1

-£14.53

-28.0

William Haggas

6

28

21.4

-£10.95

-39.1

Luca Cumani

10

48

20.8

-£10.75

-22.4

Gerard Butler

4

21

19.1

-£8.30

-39.5

Henry Cecil

7

41

17.1

-£18.91

-46.1

Ed Dunlop

4

24

16.7

-£16.51

-68.8

Richard Fahey

4

26

15.4

+£1.90

+7.3

James Toller

3

21

14.3

-£6.05

-28.8

Clive Brittain

3

22

13.6

-£6.70

-30.5

Richard Hannon

3

22

13.6

-£9.46

-43.0

James Fanshawe

5

37

13.5

-£15.38

-41.6

John Dunlop

4

30

13.3

-£22.50

-75.0

Andrew Balding

3

25

12.0

-£13.97

-55.9

Bryan Smart

3

25

12.0

-£5.88

-23.5

Peter Chapple-Hyam

3

28

10.7

-£12.15

-43.4

Tim Easterby

2

26

7.7

-£20.00

-76.9

Mark Johnston

4

55

7.3

-£24.63

-44.8

Amanda Perrett

2

32

6.3

-£18.50

-57.8

Walter Swinburn

2

37

5.4

-£29.20

-78.9

Gary Moore

1

20

5.0

-£17.90

-89.5

David Elsworth

1

21

4.8

-£19.64

-93.5

Alan Berry

1

23

4.4

-£18.50

-80.4

Chris Wall

0

33

0.0

-£33.00

-100.0

James Given

0

27

0.0

-£27.00

-100.0

 

The top three trainers in the table all have decent strike rates as well as showing a profit – hence they are worth close scrutiny when running horses in such races.

 

Saeed Bin Suroor tops the list and don’t be put off my horses making their career debuts in these races as he has a 32% strike rate with such animals and returns of 38% have been achieved.

 

I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives to be taken from the data.

 








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