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August Trainers


August Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This month I have written two – this is the second of the two and in the style of previous articles. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of August with data taken from 2004 to 2009. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:

All races (Aug 04-09) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Sir Mark Prescott 69 249 27.7 +£12.46 +5.0
Saeed Bin Suroor 95 378 25.1 -£17.08 -4.5
Sir Michael Stoute 95 426 22.3 +£33.15 +7.8
J H M Gosden 69 346 19.9 -£6.65 -1.9
E F Vaughan 21 115 18.3 +£31.88 +27.7
Mrs L Stubbs 14 77 18.2 +£76.75 +99.7
Mrs R Carr 11 63 17.5 +£9.75 +15.5
A D Brown 9 52 17.3 +£14.10 +27.1
G A Swinbank 43 254 16.9 +£19.42 +7.7
J Noseda 37 227 16.3 -£111.23 -49.0
M A Jarvis 55 340 16.2 -£67.76 -19.9
A Dickman 11 69 15.9 +£6.33 +9.2
T G Dascombe 14 89 15.7 -£6.52 -7.3
H R A Cecil 30 191 15.7 -£42.75 -22.4
A P O'Brien 10 64 15.6 -£26.28 -41.1
R Charlton 33 213 15.5 -£31.84 -15.0
M Johnston 120 788 15.2 -£46.83 -5.9
B W Hills 83 545 15.2 -£91.08 -16.7
M Botti 13 87 14.9 +£12.25 +14.1
S C Williams 30 201 14.9 -£64.34 -32.0
S A Callaghan 10 67 14.9 -£21.75 -32.5
C G Cox 34 228 14.9 +£53.34 +23.4
M P Tregoning 34 229 14.9 -£31.92 -13.9
Miss J A Camacho 10 68 14.7 £29.75 43.8
P J Makin 19 130 14.6 -£15.67 -12.1
J R Fanshawe 32 222 14.4 -£47.50 -21.4
Mrs J Chapple-Hyam 10 70 14.3 +£83.50 +119.3
J D Bethell 25 176 14.2 +£7.10 +4.0
W J Haggas 39 276 14.1 -£47.51 -17.2
K R Burke 49 358 13.7 -£23.07 -6.4
J L Dunlop 58 426 13.6 -£52.34 -12.3
T P Tate 14 104 13.5 +£89.13 +85.7
L M Cumani 43 324 13.3 -£114.58 -35.4
D Nicholls 66 499 13.2 +£40.48 +8.1
J R Boyle 24 182 13.2 +£11.08 +6.1
W Jarvis 21 161 13.0 -£25.90 -16.1
B J Meehan 58 447 13.0 -£114.52 -25.6

 

Sir Mark Prescott had the best strike rate in June and July as well, which shows clearly what time of the year he targets. One Prescott angle in August that is worth noting is focusing on handicap races when he saddles a runner in the top three of the betting. These runners have produced 43 winners from 113 runners (SR 38.1%) for a profit of £27.38 (ROI +24.2%). An even more impressive angle has been backing Prescott runners in August who are returning to the track within 2 weeks (eg 14 days or less since last run) – these runners have secured 45 wins from 117 (SR 38.5%) for a profit of £52.41 (ROI +42.8%).

Sir Michael Stoute also traditionally does well in August as the overall figures show. A positive angle on Stoute runners has been focusing on his older runners aged 4 or older. They have provided 18 wins from 70 runners (SR 25.7%) for a profit of £39.00 (ROI +50%). Stoute also has a good record with fillies and mares in the month of August – 50 wins from 168 (SR 29.8%) for a profit of £73.10 (ROI +43.5%).

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (Aug 04-09) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
A W Carroll 12 248 4.8 -£169.97 -68.5
Mrs A L M King 3 62 4.8 -£0.50 -0.8
J A Geake 4 83 4.8 -£8.00 -9.6
Peter Grayson 6 128 4.7 -£61.00 -47.7
G R Oldroyd 3 65 4.6 -£24.00 -36.9
Paul Green 3 65 4.6 +£8.00 +12.3
P Howling 8 176 4.6 -£103.00 -58.5
C R Egerton 3 67 4.5 -£37.50 -56.0
T Keddy 3 73 4.1 -£52.50 -71.9
B G Powell 6 149 4.0 -£88.00 -59.1
J R Jenkins 7 174 4.0 -£76.88 -44.2
G G Margarson 5 126 4.0 -£93.14 -73.9
Dr J R J Naylor 2 51 3.9 -£24.50 -48.0
S R Bowring 2 54 3.7 -£45.00 -83.3
R C Guest 3 82 3.7 -£44.00 -53.7
D W Thompson 2 56 3.6 -£47.88 -85.5
P C Haslam 5 146 3.4 -£90.00 -61.6
D Carroll 6 180 3.3 -£143.00 -79.4
Mrs G S Rees 3 90 3.3 -£55.50 -61.7
W G M Turner 4 123 3.3 -£80.50 -65.5
S Parr 2 64 3.1 -£50.00 -78.1
J S Wainwright 4 135 3.0 -£60.50 -44.8
M D Hammond 2 71 2.8 -£48.50 -68.3
D Haydn Jones 2 81 2.5 -£60.00 -74.1
M J Attwater 2 82 2.4 -£65.50 -79.9
Mrs H Sweeting 1 52 1.9 -£44.00 -84.6
W Storey 1 52 1.9 -£23.00 -44.2
D Shaw 3 158 1.9 -£126.00 -79.8
G C Bravery 1 53 1.9 -£32.00 -60.4
T J Etherington 1 55 1.8 -£52.00 -94.6
M F Harris 1 57 1.8 -£52.00 -91.2
Miss A Stokell 1 62 1.6 -£28.00 -45.2
J O'Reilly 1 66 1.5 -£51.00 -77.3
J G M O'Shea 1 67 1.5 -£60.50 -90.3
J Hetherton 1 69 1.5 -£62.50 -90.6
P J McBride 1 71 1.4 -£64.00 -90.1
D J S Ffrench Davis 1 84 1.2 -£78.50 -93.5
M C Chapman 1 86 1.2 -£69.00 -80.2
D A Nolan 0 78 0.0 -£78.00 -100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 35 of the 39 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in August since 2004. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

All 2yo maiden races (Aug 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
W R Swinburn 9 36 25.0 +£51.48 +143.0
J H M Gosden 21 94 22.3 +£20.18 +21.5
T G Dascombe 6 28 21.4 +£3.73 +13.3
M Johnston 40 193 20.7 +£40.59 +21.0
Saeed Bin Suroor 23 116 19.8 -£11.50 -9.9
Sir Mark Prescott 6 31 19.4 -£17.95 -57.9
E F Vaughan 5 26 19.2 +£4.88 +18.8
J R Fanshawe 5 28 17.9 +£2.08 +7.4
R M Beckett 13 74 17.6 +£119.58 +161.6
P Winkworth 8 46 17.4 +£26.20 +57.0
C G Cox 10 58 17.2 +£35.38 +61.0
A M Balding 13 77 16.9 +£20.33 +26.4
Sir Michael Stoute 18 108 16.7 -£3.10 -2.9
J Howard Johnson 6 38 15.8 -£5.17 -13.6
D M Simcock 6 39 15.4 +£7.35 +18.9
M A Jarvis 13 86 15.1 -£22.42 -26.1

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It should be noted that John Gosden’s stats are skewed somewhat by a 50/1 winner – take that away and he would have recorded significant losses overall. Having said that, if you focused on Gosden’s 2yo maidens priced 6/1 or shorter they would have produced 20 winners from 46 (SR 43.5%) for a profit of £17.18 (ROI +37.3%). Ralph Beckett’s profits are impressive and they are down to several decent priced winners – indeed 7 of his 13 winners have been double figure prices. Hence, don’t be put off if his runners are decent prices and one will almost certainly “go in” at some point.

Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:

All 3yos running in maiden races (Aug 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 17%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Saeed Bin Suroor 22 57 38.6 +£7.05 +12.4
Sir Michael Stoute 21 58 36.2 -£2.46 -4.3
M A Jarvis 11 40 27.5 -£0.32 -0.8
Sir Mark Prescott 7 26 26.9 +£5.78 +22.2
B W Hills 20 76 26.3 -£0.85 -1.1
J Noseda 11 46 23.9 -£12.09 -26.3
L M Cumani 13 57 22.8 -£13.59 -23.8
E A L Dunlop 6 29 20.7 -£15.83 -54.6
H R A Cecil 8 39 20.5 -£15.79 -40.5
M P Tregoning 12 60 20.0 +£1.91 +3.2
P R Chamings 4 20 20.0 +£11.00 +55.0
G A Butler 4 21 19.1 -£8.30 -39.5
J L Dunlop 6 33 18.2 -£13.00 -39.4
W J Haggas 5 28 17.9 -£15.91 -56.8
Mrs A J Perrett 8 47 17.0 -£6.10 -13.0

 

The top five trainers in the table all have decent strike rates and are worth close scrutiny when running horses in such races.

Saeed Bin Surror tops the list and don’t be put off my horses making their career debuts in these races as he has a 33% strike rate with such animals and returns of 44% have been achieved.

Finally a look at 3yo only handicaps.

3yo only handicap races (Aug 04-09) – 25 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Sir Mark Prescott 24 72 33.3 +£11.68 +16.2
Saeed Bin Suroor 7 26 26.9 +£3.38 +13.0
Sir Michael Stoute 14 61 23.0 +£24.29 +39.8
C G Cox 11 49 22.5 +£42.75 +87.2
J L Dunlop 16 76 21.1 +£29.58 +38.9
R Charlton 11 55 20.0 +£15.58 +28.3
D Nicholls 7 37 18.9 +£24.13 +65.2
G A Swinbank 8 44 18.2 +£20.00 +45.5
P J Makin 7 39 18.0 -£13.17 -33.8
J R Best 7 40 17.5 +£48.25 +120.6
C F Wall 6 35 17.1 +£2.38 +6.8
J H M Gosden 10 61 16.4 +£0.75 +1.2
D R C Elsworth 5 32 15.6 +£8.50 +26.6
J Noseda 4 26 15.4 -£13.56 -52.2
H Morrison 9 59 15.3 -£6.25 -10.6

 

As with last month, it is interesting to see so many trainers in profit in these 3yo handicaps. Sir Mark Prescott heads the list and the value has been with his runners that did NOT win LTO – hence Prescott handicappers (3yo only races) finishing 2nd or worse LTO have provided 14 wins from 44 (SR 31.8%) for a profit of £18.00 (ROI +40.9%).

I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives to be taken from the data.








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