August Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This month I have written two – this is the second of the two and in the style of previous articles. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of August with data taken from 2004 to 2009. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first:

All races (Aug 04-09) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 13%)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Sir Mark Prescott	69	249	27.7	+£12.46	+5.0
Saeed Bin Suroor	95	378	25.1	-£17.08	-4.5
Sir Michael Stoute	95	426	22.3	+£33.15	+7.8
J H M Gosden	69	346	19.9	-£6.65	-1.9
E F Vaughan	21	115	18.3	+£31.88	+27.7
Mrs L Stubbs	14	77	18.2	+£76.75	+99.7
Mrs R Carr	11	63	17.5	+£9.75	+15.5
A D Brown	9	52	17.3	+£14.10	+27.1
G A Swinbank	43	254	16.9	+£19.42	+7.7
J Noseda	37	227	16.3	-£111.23	-49.0
M A Jarvis	55	340	16.2	-£67.76	-19.9
A Dickman	11	69	15.9	+£6.33	+9.2
T G Dascombe	14	89	15.7	-£6.52	-7.3
H R A Cecil	30	191	15.7	-£42.75	-22.4
A P O'Brien	10	64	15.6	-£26.28	-41.1
R Charlton	33	213	15.5	-£31.84	-15.0
M Johnston	120	788	15.2	-£46.83	-5.9
B W Hills	83	545	15.2	-£91.08	-16.7
M Botti	13	87	14.9	+£12.25	+14.1
S C Williams	30	201	14.9	-£64.34	-32.0
S A Callaghan	10	67	14.9	-£21.75	-32.5
C G Cox	34	228	14.9	+£53.34	+23.4
M P Tregoning	34	229	14.9	-£31.92	-13.9
Miss J A Camacho	10	68	14.7	£29.75	43.8
P J Makin	19	130	14.6	-£15.67	-12.1
J R Fanshawe	32	222	14.4	-£47.50	-21.4
Mrs J Chapple-Hyam	10	70	14.3	+£83.50	+119.3
J D Bethell	25	176	14.2	+£7.10	+4.0
W J Haggas	39	276	14.1	-£47.51	-17.2
K R Burke	49	358	13.7	-£23.07	-6.4
J L Dunlop	58	426	13.6	-£52.34	-12.3
T P Tate	14	104	13.5	+£89.13	+85.7
L M Cumani	43	324	13.3	-£114.58	-35.4
D Nicholls	66	499	13.2	+£40.48	+8.1
J R Boyle	24	182	13.2	+£11.08	+6.1
W Jarvis	21	161	13.0	-£25.90	-16.1
B J Meehan	58	447	13.0	-£114.52	-25.6

 

Sir Mark Prescott had the best strike rate in June and July as well, which shows clearly what time of the year he targets. One Prescott angle in August that is worth noting is focusing on handicap races when he saddles a runner in the top three of the betting. These runners have produced 43 winners from 113 runners (SR 38.1%) for a profit of £27.38 (ROI +24.2%). An even more impressive angle has been backing Prescott runners in August who are returning to the track within 2 weeks (eg 14 days or less since last run) – these runners have secured 45 wins from 117 (SR 38.5%) for a profit of £52.41 (ROI +42.8%).

Sir Michael Stoute also traditionally does well in August as the overall figures show. A positive angle on Stoute runners has been focusing on his older runners aged 4 or older. They have provided 18 wins from 70 runners (SR 25.7%) for a profit of £39.00 (ROI +50%). Stoute also has a good record with fillies and mares in the month of August – 50 wins from 168 (SR 29.8%) for a profit of £73.10 (ROI +43.5%).

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (Aug 04-09) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
A W Carroll	12	248	4.8	-£169.97	-68.5
Mrs A L M King	3	62	4.8	-£0.50	-0.8
J A Geake	4	83	4.8	-£8.00	-9.6
Peter Grayson	6	128	4.7	-£61.00	-47.7
G R Oldroyd	3	65	4.6	-£24.00	-36.9
Paul Green	3	65	4.6	+£8.00	+12.3
P Howling	8	176	4.6	-£103.00	-58.5
C R Egerton	3	67	4.5	-£37.50	-56.0
T Keddy	3	73	4.1	-£52.50	-71.9
B G Powell	6	149	4.0	-£88.00	-59.1
J R Jenkins	7	174	4.0	-£76.88	-44.2
G G Margarson	5	126	4.0	-£93.14	-73.9
Dr J R J Naylor	2	51	3.9	-£24.50	-48.0
S R Bowring	2	54	3.7	-£45.00	-83.3
R C Guest	3	82	3.7	-£44.00	-53.7
D W Thompson	2	56	3.6	-£47.88	-85.5
P C Haslam	5	146	3.4	-£90.00	-61.6
D Carroll	6	180	3.3	-£143.00	-79.4
Mrs G S Rees	3	90	3.3	-£55.50	-61.7
W G M Turner	4	123	3.3	-£80.50	-65.5
S Parr	2	64	3.1	-£50.00	-78.1
J S Wainwright	4	135	3.0	-£60.50	-44.8
M D Hammond	2	71	2.8	-£48.50	-68.3
D Haydn Jones	2	81	2.5	-£60.00	-74.1
M J Attwater	2	82	2.4	-£65.50	-79.9
Mrs H Sweeting	1	52	1.9	-£44.00	-84.6
W Storey	1	52	1.9	-£23.00	-44.2
D Shaw	3	158	1.9	-£126.00	-79.8
G C Bravery	1	53	1.9	-£32.00	-60.4
T J Etherington	1	55	1.8	-£52.00	-94.6
M F Harris	1	57	1.8	-£52.00	-91.2
Miss A Stokell	1	62	1.6	-£28.00	-45.2
J O'Reilly	1	66	1.5	-£51.00	-77.3
J G M O'Shea	1	67	1.5	-£60.50	-90.3
J Hetherton	1	69	1.5	-£62.50	-90.6
P J McBride	1	71	1.4	-£64.00	-90.1
D J S Ffrench Davis	1	84	1.2	-£78.50	-93.5
M C Chapman	1	86	1.2	-£69.00	-80.2
D A Nolan	0	78	0.0	-£78.00	-100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 35 of the 39 trainers have shown losses of over 40%. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in August since 2004. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

All 2yo maiden races (Aug 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
W R Swinburn	9	36	25.0	+£51.48	+143.0
J H M Gosden	21	94	22.3	+£20.18	+21.5
T G Dascombe	6	28	21.4	+£3.73	+13.3
M Johnston	40	193	20.7	+£40.59	+21.0
Saeed Bin Suroor	23	116	19.8	-£11.50	-9.9
Sir Mark Prescott	6	31	19.4	-£17.95	-57.9
E F Vaughan	5	26	19.2	+£4.88	+18.8
J R Fanshawe	5	28	17.9	+£2.08	+7.4
R M Beckett	13	74	17.6	+£119.58	+161.6
P Winkworth	8	46	17.4	+£26.20	+57.0
C G Cox	10	58	17.2	+£35.38	+61.0
A M Balding	13	77	16.9	+£20.33	+26.4
Sir Michael Stoute	18	108	16.7	-£3.10	-2.9
J Howard Johnson	6	38	15.8	-£5.17	-13.6
D M Simcock	6	39	15.4	+£7.35	+18.9
M A Jarvis	13	86	15.1	-£22.42	-26.1

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. It should be noted that John Gosden’s stats are skewed somewhat by a 50/1 winner – take that away and he would have recorded significant losses overall. Having said that, if you focused on Gosden’s 2yo maidens priced 6/1 or shorter they would have produced 20 winners from 46 (SR 43.5%) for a profit of £17.18 (ROI +37.3%). Ralph Beckett’s profits are impressive and they are down to several decent priced winners – indeed 7 of his 13 winners have been double figure prices. Hence, don’t be put off if his runners are decent prices and one will almost certainly “go in” at some point.

Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:

All 3yos running in maiden races (Aug 04-09) – 20 runs minimum (SR 17%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Saeed Bin Suroor	22	57	38.6	+£7.05	+12.4
Sir Michael Stoute	21	58	36.2	-£2.46	-4.3
M A Jarvis	11	40	27.5	-£0.32	-0.8
Sir Mark Prescott	7	26	26.9	+£5.78	+22.2
B W Hills	20	76	26.3	-£0.85	-1.1
J Noseda	11	46	23.9	-£12.09	-26.3
L M Cumani	13	57	22.8	-£13.59	-23.8
E A L Dunlop	6	29	20.7	-£15.83	-54.6
H R A Cecil	8	39	20.5	-£15.79	-40.5
M P Tregoning	12	60	20.0	+£1.91	+3.2
P R Chamings	4	20	20.0	+£11.00	+55.0
G A Butler	4	21	19.1	-£8.30	-39.5
J L Dunlop	6	33	18.2	-£13.00	-39.4
W J Haggas	5	28	17.9	-£15.91	-56.8
Mrs A J Perrett	8	47	17.0	-£6.10	-13.0

 

The top five trainers in the table all have decent strike rates and are worth close scrutiny when running horses in such races.

Saeed Bin Surror tops the list and don’t be put off my horses making their career debuts in these races as he has a 33% strike rate with such animals and returns of 44% have been achieved.

Finally a look at 3yo only handicaps.

3yo only handicap races (Aug 04-09) – 25 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate (%)	Profit	ROI (%)
Sir Mark Prescott	24	72	33.3	+£11.68	+16.2
Saeed Bin Suroor	7	26	26.9	+£3.38	+13.0
Sir Michael Stoute	14	61	23.0	+£24.29	+39.8
C G Cox	11	49	22.5	+£42.75	+87.2
J L Dunlop	16	76	21.1	+£29.58	+38.9
R Charlton	11	55	20.0	+£15.58	+28.3
D Nicholls	7	37	18.9	+£24.13	+65.2
G A Swinbank	8	44	18.2	+£20.00	+45.5
P J Makin	7	39	18.0	-£13.17	-33.8
J R Best	7	40	17.5	+£48.25	+120.6
C F Wall	6	35	17.1	+£2.38	+6.8
J H M Gosden	10	61	16.4	+£0.75	+1.2
D R C Elsworth	5	32	15.6	+£8.50	+26.6
J Noseda	4	26	15.4	-£13.56	-52.2
H Morrison	9	59	15.3	-£6.25	-10.6

 

As with last month, it is interesting to see so many trainers in profit in these 3yo handicaps. Sir Mark Prescott heads the list and the value has been with his runners that did NOT win LTO – hence Prescott handicappers (3yo only races) finishing 2nd or worse LTO have provided 14 wins from 44 (SR 31.8%) for a profit of £18.00 (ROI +40.9%).

I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives to be taken from the data.