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August Trainer 2012


 

 

August Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

 

Each month I write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. This month I have written two – this is the second of the two and in the style of previous articles. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of August with data taken from 2007 to 2011. All profit/losses are quoted to £1 level stakes.

 

Let us begin by looking at trainer records in all races. The trainers with the highest strike rates first: 

 

All races (Aug 07-11) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

50

200

25.0

-£11.72

-5.9

Saeed Bin Suroor

77

338

22.8

-£23.60

-7.0

David Lanigan

13

61

21.3

-£2.87

-4.7

Jeremy Noseda

41

195

21.0

-£62.76

-32.2

John Gosden

67

321

20.9

-£10.79

-3.4

Sir Michael Stoute

70

342

20.5

-£18.16

-5.3

Mahmood Al Zarooni

20

102

19.6

+£17.00

+16.7

William Haggas

50

257

19.5

-£1.48

-0.6

Hughie Morrison

45

242

18.6

+£82.14

+33.9

Henry Cecil

38

213

17.8

-£43.51

-20.4

Peter Makin

18

103

17.5

-£12.05

-11.7

Alan Swinbank

45

259

17.4

+£1.47

+0.6

Edward Vaughan

18

105

17.1

+£20.38

+19.4

David Brown

9

54

16.7

+£1.60

+3.0

Marcus Tregoning

30

183

16.4

-£0.71

-0.4

David Simcock

29

180

16.1

-£31.64

-17.6

Roger Charlton

27

169

16.0

-£8.91

-5.3

Conor Dore

18

117

15.4

+£6.95

+5.9

Luca Cumani

38

250

15.2

-£69.06

-27.6

Chris Wall

23

153

15.0

-£6.39

-4.2

Simon Callaghan

10

67

14.9

-£21.75

-32.5

Clive Cox

34

230

14.8

-£28.33

-12.3

Linda Stubbs

11

78

14.1

-£4.50

-5.8

 

Sir Mark Prescott had the best strike rate in June and July as well, which shows clearly what time of the year he targets. However, backing all his August runners would have made a loss of around 6 pence in the £. However here are some positives and negatives to note about Prescott runners at this time of year:

 

-         If his horse takes an early lead they have gone onto win 44% of races;

-         Favourites have a strike rate of 38% but have produced losses of 18p in the £;

-         Horses priced between 3/1 and 7/1 have provided a return of around 17p in the £;

-         Horses returning to the track within a week have provided 18 winners from 30 (SR 60%) for a profit of £29.51 (ROI +98.4%);

-         Prescott has saddled 7 winners from 13 and Wolverhampton and 7 winners from 15 at Yarmouth. However, at Kempton he has saddled just 2 winners from 19;

-         His 2yos have scored in 17% of races but shown losses of nearly 30p in the £.

 

John Gosden also traditionally does well in August and his runners score around once in 5 for a close to break-even situation. As with Prescott, it is best to avoid favourites (losses of 15%), but his 2nd favourites have scored an impressive 33% of the time for profits in excess of 60 pence in the £. Indeed he has also made a profit with third and fourth favourites. He also does well with runners who have had a break of 28 days or less – 39 wins from 150 runners (SR 26%) for a profit of £26.64 (ROI +17.8%). Final point to note is that Gosden has secured a decent profit in handicaps.

 

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (Aug 07-11) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Noel Wilson

6

119

5.0

-£79.00

-66.4

Bill Turner

4

80

5.0

-£43.50

-54.4

Michael Blanshard

6

124

4.8

-£56.00

-45.2

Philip McBride

3

73

4.1

-£54.75

-75.0

Derek Shaw

5

122

4.1

-£85.25

-69.9

S Parr

2

51

3.9

-£37.00

-72.6

Brendan Powell

4

105

3.8

-£63.00

-60.0

Chris Dwyer

2

54

3.7

-£35.00

-64.8

Patrick Haslam

2

54

3.7

-£38.00

-70.4

Roger Teal

2

56

3.6

-£30.00

-53.6

John Jenkins

6

170

3.5

-£126.00

-74.1

Tom Keddy

2

57

3.5

-£43.50

-76.3

Peter Grayson

3

88

3.4

-£53.00

-60.2

Edward Creighton

2

63

3.2

-£53.00

-84.1

Dominic Ffrench Davis

2

82

2.4

-£65.50

-79.9

Michael Attwater

2

102

2.0

-£82.50

-80.9

John Wainwright

1

56

1.8

-£22.00

-39.3

Lisa Williamson

0

55

0.0

-£55.00

-100.0

Michael Chapman

0

54

0.0

-£54.00

-100.0

Donal Nolan

0

53

0.0

-£53.00

-100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. As I have stated in previous articles however, most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers over the whole season in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

 

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in August since 2007. I have included all trainers that have had at least 25 runners:

 

All 2yo maiden races (Aug 07-11) – 20 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR%

Profit

ROI (%)

Saeed Bin Suroor

24

88

27.3

-£6.54

-7.4

Ralph Beckett

15

73

20.6

+£109.58

+150.1

Jeremy Noseda

9

44

20.5

-£25.48

-57.9

Sir Michael Stoute

16

80

20.0

+£4.67

+5.8

Henry Cecil

8

40

20.0

+£11.25

+28.1

David Elsworth

5

25

20.0

+£31.50

+126.0

Hughie Morrison

4

21

19.1

+£47.25

+225.0

Andrew Balding

13

69

18.8

+£33.83

+49.0

Ed McMahon

5

27

18.5

+£14.75

+54.6

Mahmood Al Zarooni

10

55

18.2

+£9.25

+16.8

James Fanshawe

4

22

18.2

£4.58

20.8

David Simcock

8

46

17.4

-£10.50

-22.8

Sir Mark Prescott

4

23

17.4

-£15.63

-68.0

Paul Cole

10

60

16.7

-£12.88

-21.5

Clive Brittain

9

54

16.7

+£43.15

+79.9

Walter Swinburn

5

30

16.7

-£1.03

-3.4

John Gosden

15

91

16.5

-£29.58

-32.5

Michael Jarvis

6

37

16.2

-£7.00

-18.9

K R Burke

5

31

16.1

+£1.69

+5.5

Howard Johnson

4

25

16.0

+£0.83

+3.3

Marco Botti

4

25

16.0

+£2.50

+10.0

Mark Johnston

26

165

15.8

+£23.95

+14.5

Edward Vaughan

4

26

15.4

-£7.13

-27.4

 

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. Ralph Beckett’s profits are impressive and they are down to several decent priced winners – indeed 7 of his 15 winners have been double figure prices. Hence, don’t be put off if his runners are decent prices. Having said that, he only had 8 runners in 2yo maidens in this month last year as he had a smaller string than normal. I am not sure how big his 2yo string is this year.

 

Sticking with 2yo maidens let us look at trainers with horses making their debut. I am including all trainers that have had 20 debut runners or more.

 

2yo debutants maiden races (Aug 07-11) – 20 runs minimum

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Mahmood Al Zarooni

7

26

26.9

+£27.00

+103.9

Saeed Bin Suroor

13

57

22.8

-£1.70

-3.0

Henry Cecil

4

24

16.7

+£8.00

+33.3

Jeremy Noseda

4

25

16.0

-£16.86

-67.4

Roger Charlton

4

25

16.0

-£4.00

-16.0

Ralph Beckett

5

33

15.2

+£29.50

+89.4

Sir Michael Stoute

8

54

14.8

+£3.75

+6.9

Richard Fahey

5

34

14.7

+£46.75

+137.5

Clive Brittain

3

21

14.3

+£9.50

+45.2

John Gosden

6

46

13.0

-£8.25

-17.9

Michael Jarvis

3

23

13.0

-£0.75

-3.3

Paul Cole

3

24

12.5

-£1.50

-6.3

Peter Chapple-Hyam

3

24

12.5

-£15.09

-62.9

Mark Johnston

7

62

11.3

+£18.50

+29.8

Clive Cox

3

29

10.3

-£15.00

-51.7

Tom Dascombe

2

22

9.1

-£3.75

-17.1

Mick Channon

4

55

7.3

-£18.63

-33.9

Andrew Balding

2

30

6.7

+£8.00

+26.7

Richard Hannon

4

73

5.5

+£4.75

+6.5

Marcus Tregoning

1

20

5.0

-£13.00

-65.0

James Given

1

21

4.8

+£0.00

+0.0

Luca Cumani

1

25

4.0

-£22.63

-90.5

Sylvester Kirk

1

25

4.0

-£4.00

-16.0

Ed Dunlop

1

26

3.9

-£18.00

-69.2

Michael Bell

1

30

3.3

-£26.50

-88.3

Kevin Ryan

1

31

3.2

-£25.00

-80.7

William Haggas

1

33

3.0

-£31.50

-95.5

Brian Meehan

2

70

2.9

-£61.00

-87.1

John Dunlop

1

42

2.4

-£29.00

-69.1

John Best

0

20

0.0

-£20.00

-100.0

 

In general debutants in 2yo maidens do struggle at this time of year (indeed most of the year round). New trainer on the block Mahmood Al Zarooni has a decent record at this stage – it will be interesting to see if that form continues in 2012. However, the value of this data for me is the poor performances of certain trainers – especially Cumani, both Dunlops, Haggas and Meehan. These trainers look worth avoiding with 2yo maiden debutants.

 

August is a month where form should be fairly settled and hopefully there are good opportunities to find value. I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction as there are several positives to be taken from the data.

 

 

 








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