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April Trainers Flat 2011


April Trainers (Flat)

This month I am looking at trainer performance in April on the flat. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on UK Flat trainers in the month of April with data taken from 2005 to 2010.

April is the first full month for flat racing so some trainers can gain an edge over their rivals if they can get their ‘string’ fit and primed early on.

Firstly let us look at all races during this month.

All races (April 05-10) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 14%)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
Sir Michael Stoute 58 237 24.5 -£19.86 -8.4
M A Jarvis 49 203 24.1 +£49.65 +24.5
J H M Gosden 54 238 22.7 +£37.37 +15.7
L M Cumani 18 80 22.5 -£6.04 -7.6
M J Wallace 12 61 19.7 -£13.05 -21.4
W J Haggas 20 104 19.2 -£30.09 -28.9
B W Hills 68 355 19.2 +£54.00 +15.2
H R A Cecil 23 131 17.6 -£12.04 -9.2
Mrs A J Perrett 20 114 17.5 +£1.10 +1.0
M L W Bell 41 243 16.9 -£41.79 -17.2
T D Barron 32 192 16.7 +£86.78 +45.2
R Hannon 87 533 16.3 -£88.30 -16.6
J R Fanshawe 15 92 16.3 -£17.25 -18.8
M Johnston 90 556 16.2 -£130.46 -23.5
P W Chapple-Hyam 21 132 15.9 -£17.58 -13.3
A M Balding 33 209 15.8 +£6.12 +2.9
E A L Dunlop 30 190 15.8 -£16.36 -8.6
C F Wall 15 95 15.8 +£17.98 +18.9
K A Ryan 59 380 15.5 +£7.06 +1.9
R A Fahey 61 414 14.7 -£27.60 -6.7
W Jarvis 11 75 14.7 +£39.08 +52.1
H Morrison 23 158 14.6 -£10.84 -6.9
G A Swinbank 25 174 14.4 -£10.94 -6.3
M Botti 14 98 14.3 -£24.92 -25.4
W J Knight 8 57 14.0 -£1.75 -3.1
W R Swinburn 24 172 14.0 -£40.20 -23.4

 

Sir Michael Stoute tops the list in terms of strike rate, and in each of the six Aprils his strike rate has exceeded 20% so he is very consistent year in year out. However, depite this, backing all his runners would have produced a loss of just over 8p in the £. There have been some profitable angles worth noting with Stoute’s runners in April – firstly LTO winners have produced 10 wins from 31 (SR 32.3%) for a profit of £18.75 (ROI +60.5%); secondly runners he sends up North are rare but over 30% have won for returns of over 40p in the £; thirdly when saddling the favourite he has secured 37 wins from 85 (SR 43.5%) for a profit of £17.25 (ROI +20.3%).

The second and third trainers in the list Michael Jarvis and John Gosden have both made a blind profit which is impressive. Jarvis has a good record with his 3yo runners in April – they have produced 40 wins from 155 (SR 25.8%) for a profit of £60.60 (ROI +39.1%). He also does well with horses that have yet to win over the distance – 40 winners from 145 (SR 27.6%) £74.23 (ROI +51.2%).

John Gosden’s older runners seem to fit and raring to go because his runners aged 4 or older have produced 14 wins from 37 (SR 37.8%) for a profit of £27.69 (ROI +74.8%). There are some course stats worth noting – Gosden is 10 wins from 52 at Newmarket (arguably his favourite course) showing a profit of £24.73 (ROI +47.6%); he is 4 wins from 5 at Epsom, but at Windsor he is 0 from 17 with just 2 runners getting placed.

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (April 05-10) – 50 runs+ (SR 5% or lower)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
I W McInnes 8 160 5.0 -£72.00 -45.0
A P Jarvis 6 123 4.9 -£74.00 -60.2
M J Attwater 4 82 4.9 -£50.50 -61.6
G G Margarson 3 62 4.8 -£43.00 -69.4
D Carroll 5 106 4.7 -£73.00 -68.9
Mrs C A Dunnett 7 149 4.7 -£94.00 -63.1
P S McEntee 3 66 4.6 -£13.50 -20.5
A Berry 5 113 4.4 -£4.00 -3.5
J Balding 3 68 4.4 -£41.50 -61.0
N Tinkler 5 120 4.2 -£42.75 -35.6
J M P Eustace 3 73 4.1 -£39.17 -53.7
J W Hills 4 99 4.0 -£19.00 -19.2
R M Whitaker 4 100 4.0 -£28.00 -28.0
J D Bethell 3 77 3.9 -£52.00 -67.5
Miss L A Perratt 2 57 3.5 -£46.50 -81.6
S C Williams 4 116 3.5 -£89.50 -77.2
J S Wainwright 2 59 3.4 +£15.00 +25.4
M Blanshard 3 91 3.3 -£58.00 -63.7
I A Wood 3 94 3.2 -£44.50 -47.3
D K Ivory 4 145 2.8 -£126.30 -87.1
B P J Baugh 2 80 2.5 -£70.13 -87.7
Peter Grayson 2 87 2.3 -£79.75 -91.7
J J Bridger 2 94 2.1 -£59.00 -62.8
Mrs A Duffield 2 100 2.0 -£80.50 -80.5
M Mullineaux 1 55 1.8 -£38.00 -69.1
V Smith 1 55 1.8 -£40.00 -72.7
R Bastiman 1 59 1.7 -£49.00 -83.1
R M H Cowell 1 66 1.5 -£60.00 -90.9
M C Chapman 1 84 1.2 -£50.00 -59.5
G M Moore 0 72 0.0 -£72.00 -100.0
A G Newcombe 0 52 0.0 -£52.00 -100.0
Jedd O'Keeffe 0 52 0.0 -£52.00 -100.0
E F Vaughan 0 51 0.0 -£51.00 -100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses – 27 of the 33 trainer had losses in excess of 40p in the £. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.

As I have said many times in the past, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in April since 2005. I have included all trainers with at least 20 runners:

All 2yo maiden races (April 05-10) – 20 runs minimum

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%)
M J Wallace 6 23 26.1 +£2.63 +11.4
R Hannon 22 85 25.9 +£2.34 +2.8
R A Fahey 5 20 25.0 -£3.92 -19.6
B W Hills 7 31 22.6 +£15.38 +49.6
K A Ryan 12 55 21.8 +£7.57 +13.8
B R Millman 7 35 20.0 +£32.23 +92.1
P F I Cole 4 22 18.2 +£10.92 +49.6
M Brittain 3 21 14.3 +£22.50 +107.1
M R Channon 11 91 12.1 -£39.73 -43.7
T G Dascombe 3 25 12.0 -£6.17 -24.7
T D Easterby 7 60 11.7 +£1.41 +2.4
W G M Turner 5 44 11.4 +£8.13 +18.5
P D Evans 8 76 10.5 +£5.88 +7.7
A B Haynes 2 22 9.1 -£11.75 -53.4
M Johnston 2 29 6.9 -£22.00 -75.9
J S Moore 2 30 6.7 -£23.00 -76.7
P T Midgley 2 31 6.5 -£9.50 -30.7
M W Easterby 2 32 6.3 -£25.25 -78.9
D K Ivory 0 21 0.0 -£21.00 -100.0

 

This table should be quite useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. Richard Hannon’s runners in 2yo maidens have performed well when either favourite, second or third favourite - these runners combined have provided all 22 of his winners from 56 (SR 39.3%) for a healthy profit of £31.36 (ROI +56%). Mark Johnston on the other hand seems to start the season slowly, although 29 runners over 6 seasons is a fairly small sample.

Hopefully this article has given you some useful facts and figures for the month of April.








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