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April Trainer 2012


April Trainers 2012 (Flat)

This month I am looking at trainer performance in April on the flat. Trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on UK Flat trainers in the month of April with data taken from 2007 to 2011.

April is the first full month for flat racing so some trainers can gain an edge over their rivals if they can get their ‘string’ fit and primed early on.

Firstly let us look at all races during this month.

All races (April 07-11) 40 runs+ (minimum SR 16%)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Michael Stoute

40

168

23.8

-£22.81

-13.6

Alan Bailey

15

66

22.7

+£38.90

+58.9

John Gosden

55

259

21.2

-£1.83

-0.7

Amanda Perrett

16

77

20.8

+£12.80

+16.6

Stef Higgins

10

51

19.6

+£35.00

+68.6

James Fanshawe

14

72

19.4

+£9.63

+13.4

Luca Cumani

14

72

19.4

-£12.56

-17.5

Ollie Pears

9

47

19.2

+£25.15

+53.5

Henry Cecil

28

150

18.7

-£26.02

-17.4

Tom Tate

9

49

18.4

+£28.75

+58.7

David Barron

29

159

18.2

+£53.63

+33.7

Richard Fahey

76

431

17.6

+£32.68

+7.6

Peter Chapple-Hyam

17

99

17.2

-£32.44

-32.8

James Given

18

105

17.1

+£17.97

+17.1

Richard Hannon

77

454

17.0

-£78.38

-17.3

Michael Bell

37

220

16.8

-£20.11

-9.1

Andrew Balding

29

173

16.8

+£12.60

+7.3

William Haggas

16

96

16.7

-£21.42

-22.3

David Lanigan

7

42

16.7

-£0.92

-2.2

George Baker

8

49

16.3

-£13.70

-28.0

Paul D'Arcy

7

43

16.3

+£31.75

+73.8

Marco Botti

19

117

16.2

-£30.89

-26.4

Jeremy Noseda

16

99

16.2

-£28.87

-29.2

Mark Johnston

79

493

16.0

-£120.58

-24.5

Sir Michael Stoute tops the list in terms of strike rate, but he has still made a loss. However, there have been some profitable angles worth noting with Stoute’s runners in April – firstly when saddling the favourite he has secured 28 wins from 67 (SR 41.8%) for a profit of £10.94 (ROI +16.3%); secondly his handicappers have won 13 races from 43 (SR 30.2%) for a profit of £12.33 (ROI +28.7%); thirdly when his runners drop down in distance they have provided 11 wins from 25 (SR 44%) for a profit of £6.62 (ROI +26.5%).

John Gosden tends to start the season running and all runners have combined to produce a near break-even situation. His older runners seem to fit and raring to go because his runners aged 4 or older have produced 13 wins from 42 (SR 31%) for a profit of £30.10 (ROI +71.7%). He also has performed well in longer distance races of 1m4f or more – 11 wins from 24 (SR 45.8%) for a profit of £21.97 (ROI +91.5%).

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (April 07-11) 40 runs+ (SR 5% or lower)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

E J O'Neill

2

41

4.9

-£14.50

-35.4

Michael Mullineaux

2

42

4.8

-£30.25

-72.0

John Bridger

3

66

4.6

-£20.00

-30.3

Michael Blanshard

3

66

4.6

-£33.00

-50.0

Ian McInnes

6

133

4.5

-£54.50

-41.0

John Hills

4

91

4.4

-£35.63

-39.2

Mark Brisbourne

6

137

4.4

-£59.50

-43.4

Declan Carroll

4

96

4.2

-£66.50

-69.3

John Ryan

2

51

3.9

-£21.25

-41.7

Alan Jarvis

4

104

3.9

-£64.00

-61.5

Ian Wood

2

52

3.9

-£43.60

-83.9

James Eustace

2

52

3.9

-£21.67

-41.7

Edward Creighton

2

53

3.8

-£23.50

-44.3

George Moore

2

58

3.5

-£36.50

-62.9

Linda Perratt

2

58

3.5

-£47.50

-81.9

Stuart Williams

3

93

3.2

-£73.50

-79.0

Michael Attwater

2

65

3.1

-£18.50

-28.5

Brian Baugh

2

70

2.9

-£60.13

-85.9

Dean Ivory

3

107

2.8

-£71.63

-66.9

Richard Whitaker

2

76

2.6

-£27.00

-35.5

Christine Dunnett

2

93

2.2

-£79.00

-85.0

Jedd O'Keeffe

1

47

2.1

-£24.00

-51.1

Robin Bastiman

1

47

2.1

-£37.00

-78.7

Nick Littmoden

1

51

2.0

-£46.00

-90.2

Alan Berry

1

55

1.8

-£47.00

-85.5

Michael Chapman

1

60

1.7

-£26.00

-43.3

Ann Duffield

0

104

0.0

-£104.00

-100.0

Peter Grayson

0

75

0.0

-£75.00

-100.0

Edward Vaughan

0

45

0.0

-£45.00

-100.0

Tim Pitt

0

40

0.0

-£40.00

-100.0

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses – 25 of the 30 trainer had losses in excess of 40p in the £. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.

As I have said many times in the past, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in April since 2007. I have included all trainers with at least 15 runners:

All 2yo maiden races (April 07-11) 15 runs minimum

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Richard Hannon

21

70

30.0

+£5.15

+7.4

Richard Fahey

8

28

28.6

+£1.58

+5.6

Paul Cole

5

21

23.8

+£18.92

+90.1

David Barron

3

15

20.0

-£0.50

-3.3

Kevin Ryan

7

44

15.9

-£3.60

-8.2

Rod Millman

3

19

15.8

+£33.00

+173.7

Tom Dascombe

5

32

15.6

-£10.34

-32.3

Mel Brittain

3

21

14.3

+£22.50

+107.1

Alan McCabe

3

22

13.6

+£13.63

+61.9

Tim Easterby

6

50

12.0

-£8.09

-16.2

Mick Channon

9

78

11.5

-£40.85

-52.4

David Evans

10

93

10.8

+£12.25

+13.2

J S Moore

2

24

8.3

-£14.00

-58.3

Bill Turner

2

25

8.0

-£18.50

-74.0

Paul Midgley

2

30

6.7

-£8.50

-28.3

Mark Johnston

1

18

5.6

-£14.75

-81.9

Andrew Haynes

1

19

5.3

-£12.00

-63.2

Brian Meehan

0

16

0.0

-£16.00

-100.0

Michael Easterby

0

16

0.0

-£16.00

-100.0

Dean Ivory

0

15

0.0

-£15.00

-100.0

This table should be quite useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. The data is limited for some trainers and it may be worth digging a bit deeper, either by looking at win and placed performances and/or going back an extra year or two. The data sample is big enough for Richard Hannon and here some angles worth noting – firstly if you concentrate on horses from the top three in the betting his record looks very solid – 21 winners from 53 (SR 39.6%) for a profit of £22.15 (ROI +41.8%); secondly he has had only 5 runners at Folkestone, but 4 have won; and thirdly horses that have run already have won 5 of their 12 starts.

In contrast to Hannon, Mick Channon has a moderate record early in the season. 8 of Channon’s 9 winners have been short prices 7/2 or shorter. Indeed horses priced 4/1 or bigger have produced just 1 win from 53 (SR 1.9%) for a loss of £41.00 (ROI -77.4%).

Hopefully this article has given you some useful facts and figures for the month of April.








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