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April National Hunt Trainers


 

April Trainers (NH) by David Renham

Each month I have tried to write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and tend to peak / trough at similar times each year. This article is based on National Hunt trainers in the month of April with data taken from 2003 to 2009.

April sees the National Hunt season essentially winding down, although of course Aintree takes centre stage for three days.

Firstly let us look at races – chases, hurdles and bumpers combined.

All races (April 03-09) – 50 runs minimum (SR 13.5%)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

A Hales

10

53

18.9

+£56.33

+106.3

N Richards

43

231

18.6

-£6.32

-2.7

L Lungo

32

176

18.2

-£47.94

-27.2

P Nicholls

120

661

18.2

-£170.97

-25.9

P Hobbs

100

566

17.7

+£2.62

+0.5

J Wade

10

58

17.2

-£4.92

-8.5

C Mann

26

155

16.8

-£39.27

-25.3

P Webber

25

150

16.7

+£38.92

+25.9

A King

64

398

16.1

-£40.97

-10.3

G Swinbank

13

81

16.1

-£34.57

-42.7

T Easterby

11

69

15.9

-£4.50

-6.5

V Dartnall

14

91

15.4

-£15.38

-16.9

F Murphy

41

280

14.6

-£34.52

-12.3

T George

24

166

14.5

-£7.78

-4.7

G L Moore

35

253

13.8

-£37.46

-14.8

E Williams

26

192

13.5

-£39.09

-20.4

 

Alex Hales has a good overall record in April from a small number of runners. Nicky Richards has a solid looking record and he should be noted when saddling well fancied runners – his favourites and second favourites have combined for 31 wins from 83 runners (SR 37.4%) for a profit of £18.68 (ROI +22.5%). The Hobbs stable have plenty of runners and they have done well to produce a profit, albeit a minute one. He has done well at certain venues including Taunton (10 wins from 23); Wincanton (12 from 37) and Fontwell (5 from 13).

 

It also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

 

All races (April 03-09) – 50 runs minimum (SR 5.5% or lower)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

L Wells

3

56

5.4

-£34.13

-60.9

A Whillans

4

76

5.3

-£2.00

-2.6

Miss L V Russell

11

224

4.9

-£70.63

-31.5

N King

3

63

4.8

-£9.13

-14.5

P Beaumont

6

132

4.6

-£72.50

-54.9

F Murtagh

3

67

4.5

-£36.50

-54.5

Mrs L Normile

4

90

4.4

-£8.00

-8.9

S Lewis

3

69

4.4

£8.50

12.3

C Bealby

3

70

4.3

-£13.00

-18.6

A Carroll

4

99

4.0

-£71.25

-72.0

G M Moore

4

105

3.8

-£88.42

-84.2

M Scudamore

5

137

3.7

-£116.60

-85.1

M Hammond

2

55

3.6

-£42.67

-77.6

Mrs H Graham

2

55

3.6

-£39.00

-70.9

J Moffatt

2

57

3.5

-£21.00

-36.8

R Nixon

2

61

3.3

-£39.50

-64.8

R Johnson

3

101

3.0

-£80.50

-79.7

Dr P Pritchard

1

59

1.7

-£49.00

-83.1

R  Price

1

61

1.6

-£59.17

-97.0

J O'Shea

1

62

1.6

-£50.00

-80.7

M Sowersby

1

68

1.5

-£57.00

-83.8

N Hawke

0

87

0.0

-£87.00

-100.0

M Gingell

0

62

0.0

-£62.00

-100.0

S Burrough

0

52

0.0

-£52.00

-100.0

B Storey

0

50

0.0

-£50.00

-100.0

Mrs L Jewell

0

50

0.0

-£50.00

-100.0

 

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month.

 

As I have said many times in the past, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types as it quite usual for a yard’s chasers to be at a different overall level to their hurdlers at this point of the season. Also certain trainers seem to do better with one than the other. Hence, let us look at chase races only in April since 2003:

 

All chases (April 03-09) – 30 runs minimum (SR 16%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

C Mann

12

49

24.5

+£2.86

+5.8

P Webber

13

54

24.1

+£14.50

+26.9

N Richards

15

64

23.4

-£0.85

-1.3

J Wade

8

35

22.9

+£11.25

+32.1

A King

20

105

19.1

+£11.60

+11.1

B Powell

15

81

18.5

+£22.66

+28.0

L Lungo

8

45

17.8

-£17.92

-39.8

P Hobbs

38

216

17.6

+£21.92

+10.2

T George

14

80

17.5

+£0.72

+0.9

T Easterby

6

35

17.1

-£4.75

-13.6

G L Moore

11

66

16.7

-£11.83

-17.9

H Hogarth

5

30

16.7

+£10.25

+34.2

F Murphy

22

134

16.4

-£1.70

-1.3

O Brennan

5

31

16.1

+£15.75

+50.8

 

Charlie Mann has done especially well with his novice chasers – he has secured 7 wins from 17 (SR 41.2%) for a profit of £11.36 (ROI +66.8%). The market is also a good guide to the chances of all his chasers. When saddling the top two in the betting Mann’s record in April chases reads 10 wins from 21 (SR 47.1%) for a profit of £10.86 (ROI +51.7%). Philip Hobbs has had decent success in handicap chases producing profits of £44.99 (ROI +27.9%).

 

Let us now move to hurdle races:

 

All hurdle races (April 03-09) – 30 runs minimum (SR 14%+)

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

P Nicholls

55

257

21.4

-£25.07

-9.8

P Hobbs

59

310

19.0

-£14.30

-4.6

L Lungo

20

110

18.2

-£20.21

-18.4

A Hales

8

44

18.2

+£15.33

+34.8

N Richards

25

144

17.4

+£0.53

+0.4

B Ellison

5

30

16.7

+£6.75

+22.5

H Daly

15

93

16.1

-£15.01

-16.1

E Williams

16

102

15.7

-£19.47

-19.1

A King

35

233

15.0

-£76.47

-32.8

F Murphy

17

115

14.8

-£9.65

-8.4

V Dartnall

9

61

14.8

-£14.38

-23.6

M Todhunter

6

41

14.6

-£14.03

-34.2

C Mann

14

100

14.0

-£36.13

-36.1

 

As you can see, profits are difficult to find in hurdle races. Paul Nicholls has a very good record with market leaders in April hurdle races – 35 wins from 75 favourites (SR 46.7%) for a profit of £30.68 (ROI +40.9%).

 

Hopefully there is some useful data here and good luck with your punting this month.

 

 








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