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All Weather LTO Winners
All Weather LTO Winners
In Great Britain there are currently four all weather courses – Kempton, Lingfield, Wolverhampton and Southwell. Great Leighs had become the 5th all weather course in April 2008, but due to financial problems it closed the following year with little or no hope of it being re-opened. This article focuses on all weather racing in this country looking specifically at last time out winners. I investigate the performance of last time out winners on the all weather and seeing whether there are significant differences in performance in terms of where they run next time. For example, do horses that win at Lingfield perform better next time if they run at Lingfield again, or if they switch to one of the other three aw tracks?
The data for this piece has been taken Jan 1st 2006 to Dec 5th 2010.
Before I delve into the stats, let us look at the configuration of the all weather courses and the relevant surfaces:
Kempton – is the only right handed all weather track. The surface is Polytrack;
Lingfield – is left handed and the surface is Polytrack;
Wolverhampton - is left handed and the surface is Polytrack;
Southwell – is left handed and the surface is fibresand.
Therefore, three of the courses race on Polytrack and other, Southwell races on fibresand. Polytrack was introduced to American race tracks in the 80s, whereas in Britain we had to wait until the turn of the millennium. Lingfield switched to a Polytrack surface in 2001 (from equitrack), Wolverhampton switched to Polytrack in 2004 (from fibresand), Kempton switched from turf racing to Polytrack in March 2006. Polytrack combines new and recycled products such as silica sand, rubber and synthetic fibres. Although three of the courses have Polytrack, it seems likely that they are not exactly the same composition. Hence, all three Polytrack courses do ‘ride’ slightly differently. That is perhaps why some horses seem to act better at one course rather than the other two.
The Southwell surface is fibresand which is made up of sand and polypropylene fibres, is much slower and rides much deeper than the three Polytrack surfaces. In addition there is usually significant kick-back at Southwell which horses behind often do not appreciate.
Let me now start the number crunching.
LTO Kempton winners – horses that won at Kempton on their most recent start go on to produce the following results on their next run:
It should not be surprisingly that these runners have failed to produce a profit, as LTO flat winners in general lose around 17 pence in the £ (ROI -17%). It is interesting however, when we breakdown their next run into turf flat, all weather or National Hunt.
Not surprisingly very few LTO Kempton winners go on to race in National Hunt contests next time. However, horses that reappear next time on the all weather have performed significantly better than those who race next time on the turf. Indeed there is a appreciable difference in both strike rates and returns. With respectable figures for runners who reappear on all weather track, it makes sense to break down the results by course. Please note I have excluded the 38 horses that raced at Great Leighs next time:
It is interesting to note that LTO winners that switch from Kempton to either Lingfield or Wolverhampton have performed the best. Horses that switch to Southwell are rare, and despite a fairly good strike rate, returns have been poor losing nearer 25 pence in the £.
Conclusion – LTO Kempton winners that race at Lingfield or Wolverhampton next time out are worth close scrutiny; those that race on turf or at Southwell should be treated with much more caution.
LTO Lingfield winners – horses that won at Lingfield on their most recent start go on to produce the following results on their next run:
LTO winners at Lingfield perform above the ‘norm’ next time out so let us breakdown their next run into turf flat, all weather or National Hunt as we did for Kempton.
The figures for LTO winners that stick to the all weather next time are worth noting – losses of under 8 pence in the £ for all 2187 runners. As with LTO Kempton winners, the figures for horses switching to the turf are less good. Let us breakdown the all weather results by course:
Once again horses that switch to Southwell have proved poor value, (despite a decent enough strike rate). LTO Lingfield winners that switch to Kempton or Wolverhampton have performed very creditably showing a small profit at the Midlands track and only losses of 2.3% at the Surrey venue.
Conclusion – LTO Lingfield winners that race at Kempton or Wolverhampton next time out are worth very close scrutiny; those that race on turf or at Southwell should be treated with much more caution.
LTO Wolverhampton winners – horses that won at Wolverhampton on their most recent start go on to produce the following results on their next run:
The results for LTO Wolverhampton winners are not as good as for Kempton and Lingfield LTO winners. This may be due to the fact that Lingfield and Kempton being Southern courses attract better runners in general than those who run at Wolverhampton. This is only conjecture, but at least is logical. Let us move onto next time performances in relation to the surface/race type:
Once again we have similar figures with LTO winners at Wolverhampton performing better next time when sticking to an all weather surface. Let us look at this all weather course split:
For the first time there seems little difference in the next time out course results. Indeed, LTO Wolverhampton winners do not offer any real positives.
Conclusion – LTO Wolverhampton winners perform moderately on their next run especially if switching to turf.
LTO Southwell winners – horses that won at Southwell on their most recent start go on to produce the following results on their next run:
Despite a respectable strike rate LTO winners at Southwell under perform next time returning a loss of around 23 pence in the £. Moving on to Race type next time out:
It is a massive negative when Southwell winners switch to turf on their next run. The strike rate equates to roughly 1 win in 10 and losses are close to 47 pence in the £. These runners are definitely worth avoiding! Let us finally look at the stats for all weather courses next time:
Horses that return to Southwell have a good strike rate of nearly 23% but they are still unprofitable to follow. However, those switching to Lingfield have actually made a profit; albeit a small one, and albeit from a relatively small sample.
Conclusion – LTO Southwell winners perform the worst out of all the all weather courses. However, horses that race at Lingfield next time have a good record and are worth close inspection. Horses that race at Wolverhampton next time have a poor record, although not as poor as those switching to turf.
It is clear from these findings that circumstances do matter when LTO winners on the all weather return to the track. In general, horses that switch to the turf perform poorly, while those that switch from Polytrack to Southwell’s fibresand also struggle. LTO winners at Lingfield perform the best and in general LTO winners switching from one Polytrack course to another are worth close scrutiny. There is no easy route to profits from this research, but the stats in this article should at the very worst steer you away from poor value LTO winners.
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