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All Weather Horse Racing Research


All weather research (September 9th ‘07) by David Renham

 

With the all weather season around 2 months away I have been doing some more research into trainers on the sand. The data for the article is taken from the last 10 years. Firstly here is a list of the trainers with the best strike rates on the all weather (all courses):

 

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

Sir Michael Stoute

45

175

25.7%

+£0.39

+0.2%

Sir Mark Prescott

215

858

25.1%

–£135.30

–15.8%

J Noseda

83

350

23.7%

+£1.36

+0.4%

M Jarvis

89

411

21.7%

+£120.08

+29.2%

M Tregoning

43

212

20.3%

–£16.71

–7.9%

T Mills

104

515

20.2%

+£32.40

+6.3%

T Pitt

22

114

19.3%

–£34.28

–30.1%

W Haggas

105

559

18.8%

–£47.13

–8.4%

J Gosden

60

323

18.6%

–£22.46

–7.0%

B Hills

120

650

18.5%

–£23.12

–3.6%

T Barron

201

1097

18.3%

+£99.57

+9.1%

P Chapple–Hyam

26

144

18.1%

–£13.41

–9.3%

L Cumani

30

168

17.9%

+£9.66

+5.8%

H Morrison

85

490

17.3%

–£14.22

–2.9%

M Johnston

179

1034

17.3%

–£113.89

–11.0%

C Wall

54

323

16.7%

+20.33

+6.3%

 

Looking at the list, one trainer stands out for me and that is Michael Jarvis. Not only has he got a strike rate of better than 1 win in 5, he also has shown a profit close to 30% on investment. He is definitely a trainer to analyse further. Indeed the following stats have been profitable, but the list is by no means exhaustive in terms of Jarvis and profits:

 

Michael Jarvis – some profitable angles:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

January / February  – all AW tracks

18

80

22.5%

+£30.09

+37.6%

Favourites  – all AW tracks

36

79

45.6%

+£8.54

+10.8%

Class 6 races  – all AW tracks

15

61

24.6%

+£44.13

+72.3%

Lingfield (Equitrack + Polytrack)

38

173

22.0%

+£98.05

+56.7%

Lingfield (Polytrack only)

35

152

23.0%

+£97.55

+64.2%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) maidens

21

74

28.4%

+£74.59

+100.8%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) 3yo+ maidens

7

20

35.0%

+£18.67

+93.4%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) Callan riding in maidens

7

14

50.0%

+£52.75

+376.8%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) 15/8 or shorter

10

13

76.9%

+£6.97

+53.6%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) Robinson riding

15

63

23.8%

+£23.67

+37.6%

Southwell

16

66

24.2%

+£16.04

+24.3%

Southwell favourites

8

15

53.3%

+£4.54

+30.3%

Southwell handicaps

8

35

22.9%

+£15.75

+45.0%

 

All in all Jarvis has an excellent record at Lingfield and he should also be noted at Southwell. His stats are less good at Wolverhampton.

 

Another trainer worth noting on the all weather is Terry Mills, especially at Lingfield.

 

Terry Mills – some profitable angles:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

1m 4f or more  – all AW tracks

19

78

24.4%

+£21.93

+28.1%

Up in class – all AW tracks

23

112

20.5%

+£51.75

+46.2%

Favourites – all AW tracks

49

116

42.2%

+£21.61

+18.6%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) Up in Distance

19

76

25.0%

+£32.66

+43.0%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) Up in class

12

40

30.0%

+£36.00

+90.0%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) Maidens

20

69

29.0%

+£28.30

+41.0%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) 2yo races

14

41

34.1%

+£25.62

+62.5%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) Colts

29

79

36.7%

+£59.38

+75.2%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) 2/1 to 9/2

22

65

33.8%

+£30.41

+46.8%

 

His strike rate when running Colts at Lingfield is outstanding and definitely is angle I will be following this winter.

 

Marcus Tregoning’s overall record does not show a profit but again there are several angles that offer profitable routes:

 

Marcus Tregoning – some profitable angles:

 

Variable

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate

Profit

ROI

January / February  – all AW tracks

15

41

36.6%

+£20.54

+50.1%

1m 4f or more  – all AW tracks

12

35

34.3%

+£23.05

+65.9%

Odds on – all AW tracks

12

17

70.6%

+£2.77

+16.3%

R Hughes – all AW tracks

7

13

53.8%

+£7.89

+60.7%

Class 6 or 7 – all AW tracks

7

20

35.0%

+£8.80

+44.0%

Lingfield (Polytrack only) FTO

6

32

18.8%

+£17.30

+54.1%

 

Of course it is not only trainers that offer profitable angles on the all weather. Sire stats can be a goldmine and here are three, of the many profitable sires I have found:

 

Sire Danehillsome profitable AW angles:

 

Favourite – all AW tracks: 39/96 (SR 41%) profit +22%

Top 3 in betting – all AW tracks: 71/234 (SR 30%) profit +20%

Favourite 1 mile or less – all AW tracks: 25/47 (SR 53%) profit +58%

 

Sire Dansili some profitable AW angles:

 

Southwell: 14/64 (SR 22%) profit +36%

Top 3 in betting – all AW tracks: 57/176 (SR 32%) profit +35%

Maiden races (inc. maiden handicaps) – all AW tracks: 24/102 (SR 24%) profit +53%

 

Sire Desert Sun some profitable AW angles:

 

Lingfield: 21/124 (SR 17%) profit +60%

Wolverhampton: 25/142 (SR 18%) profit +72%

3yos at Lingfield: 13/59 (SR 22%) profit +159%

 








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