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Alan King - a trainer to follow


 

 

Alan King – a trainer to follow in 2008/09? By David Renham

 

 

 

Alan King is a trainer that has a good overall record, but in my opinion is still a slightly underrated trainer. This article will hopefully point you in the right direction in terms of bets that offer value this season, and those that do not. Essentially this is a facts and figures and article and hence there is limited analysis as I want to cram in as much useful information as possible. The data is taken from January 1st 2000 until 5th October 2008. All profits and losses are calculated to £1 level stakes. ROI – stands for return on investment.

 

 

 

All Races – overall record

 

 

 

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

3068

525

17.1%

-£158.69

-5.2%

 

 

 

A loss of just 5% on all runners is a good starting point! This should mean there are several areas where we can profit from.

 

 

 

All races – positive courses (10 or more wins; 20%+ profit)

 

 

 

Course

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Market Rasen

57

19

33.3%

+£17.23

+30.2%

Lingfield

33

10

30.3%

+£17.34

+52.5%

Taunton

76

20

26.3%

+£16.90

+22.2%

Bangor

103

26

25.2%

+£36.88

+35.8%

Hereford

127

31

24.4%

+£44.13

+34.7%

Southwell

49

11

22.4%

+£13.56

+27.7%

Chepstow

85

19

22.4%

+£21.96

+25.8%

 

 

 

All races – negative courses (40 or more runs; strike rate less than 10%)

 

 

 

Course

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Sandown

101

10

9.9%

-£42.25

-41.8%

Ludlow

70

4

5.75

-£36.75

-52.5%

Ascot

75

4

5.3%

-£44.00

-58.7%

 

 

 

Let us look now at some more positive angles for all races:

 

 

 

Variable

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Off track for more than

12 weeks

531

87

16.4%

+£128.19%

+24.1%

Horses making debut

237

37

15.6%

+£54.48

+23%

SP 7/1 to 11/1

600

75

12.5%

+£112.00

+18.7%

All runners in December

436

89

20.4%

+£151.27

+34.7%

4yos in

December and January

190

46

24.2%

+£91.94

+48.4%

Sire - Alflora

115

23

20%

+£31.43

+27.3%

First time blinkers

70

13

18.6%

+£12.49

+17.8%

 

 

 

Now let us move on to more specific race types. I have chosen two race types where he has shown an overall profit since the year 2000 – handicap chases and non handicap novice hurdles:

 

 

 

Handicap chases – overall record

 

 

 

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

562

84

14.9%

+£38.43

+6.8%

 

 

 

Impressive to make a blind profit in handicap chases – let us now look at a course breakdown with positive and negative courses highlighted:

 

 

 

Handicap chases – positive courses (4 or more wins; 35%+ profit)

 

 

 

Course

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Wincanton

45

11

24.4%

+£38.00

+84.4%

Huntingdon

36

8

22.2%

+£12.86

+35.7%

Stratford

29

5

17.2%

+£13.25

+45.7%

Newbury

31

5

16.1%

+£17.00

+54.8%

Doncaster

17

4

23.5%

+£18.00

+105.9%

Southwell

11

4

36.4%

+£27.25

+247.7%

 

 

 

Handicap chases – negative courses (15 runs+; strike rate less than 10%; losses 35% or more)

 

 

 

Course

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Cheltenham

60

4

6.7%

-£25.50

-42.5%

Uttoxeter

27

1

3.7%

-£21.00

-77.8%

Sandown

26

1

3.8%

-£19.5

-75%

Ascot

20

1

5%

-£7.00

-35%

Aintree

18

0

0%

-£18.00

-100%

 

 

 

Let us look at other positive pointers in handicap chases:

 

 

 

Variable

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

5 to 8yos

346

60

17.3%

+£51.42

+14.9%

Novice handicap chases

92

22

23.9%

+£49.25

+53.5%

December

80

20

25%

+£64.18

+80.2%

Ran in novice chase LTO (non handicap)

58

12

20.7%

+£70.75

+122%

Ran over hurdles LTO

46

11

23.9%

+£23.58

+51.3%

Race Value 5K or less

141

28

19.9%

+£44.94

+31.9%

 

 

 

Let us now move on to novice hurdles (non handicaps).

 

 

 

Novice hurdles (non handicaps) – overall record

 

 

 

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

838

177

21.2%

+£48.59

+5.8%

 

 

 

Let us now look at a course breakdown with positive and negative courses highlighted:

 

 

 

Novice hurdles (non handicaps) – positive courses (5 or more wins; strike rate 25% +; 35%+ profit)

 

 

 

Course

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Hereford

39

10

25.6%

+£48.66

+124.8%

Fontwell

29

8

27.6%

+£23.47

+80.9%

Bangor

31

10

32.3%

+£20.48

+66.1%

Towcester

21

6

28.6%

+£16.03

+76.3%

Taunton

35

12

34.3%

+£15.33

+43.8%

Market Rasen

23

10

43.5%

+£10.82

+47.1%

Wetherby

14

5

35.7%

+£7.85

+56.1%

Chepstow

14

5

35.7%

+£7.11

+50.8%

 

 

 

Novice hurdles (non handicaps) – negative courses (30 runs+; losses 40%+)

 

 

 

Course

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

Doncaster

33

4

12.1%

-£13.50

-40.9%

Uttoxeter

39

5

12.8%

-£21.70

-55.6%

Newbury

54

5

9.3%

-£38.47

-71.2%

 

 

 

Finally as I am running out of space for this piece, let us look at some other positives from novice hurdles:

 

 

 

Variable

Runners

Winners

Strike Rate

Profit / loss

ROI

August to January

449

103

22.9%

+£184.79

+41.2%

10 to 16 runners

511

104

20.4%

+£120.09

+23.5%

2nd favourites

182

52

28.6%

+£31.28

+17.2%

 

 

 

There have been plenty of stats to get your teeth into and hopefully selective following of trainer Alan King can reap big dividends this season!

 

 








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