|Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )|
Articles >> horse-racing >>
A Detailed Look at Chester Draw Bias
Chester is considered one of the most biased in terms of the draw in this country. The configuration of the track (horses running round a tight left-handed bend) suggests that any bias is likely to remain constant over a long period of time. I have looked in detail before at Chester draw bias, but the stats remain so strong I feel it is worth keeping up to date with the current state of “play”.
I have chosen the period from 2005 to 2008 to study the last 4 full years. As with all my draw research, I have only considered races with 10 runners or more and have split the runners into “thirds”. Hence in a 12-runner race, draws 1 to 4 would lie in the bottom “third”, draws 5 to 8 in the middle “third”, and draws 9 to 12 in the top “third”. On a completely fair course the winning percentages for each third should be around 33% and, while some courses hover around that figure, others clearly do not.
I have chosen the minimum distance of 5 furlongs where the draw bias is traditionally at its strongest. There have been 31 qualifying races over 5 furlongs during this period with the draw split as follows:
The rest of this Article is for Full Members Only
Dave examines the cold hard facts and figures.
In addition to the standard stats for high, middle and low draws he additionally examines factors such as
- The Effect of field size
- The effect of the going
- Results for individual stall positions
He finishes with a quick summary of key profitable betting angles
One simple bettign approach for example would have produced a level stakes profit of £498.30 to £10 level stakes at Starting Price.
That equates to a return on investment of 160.7% !!
The rest of this article is only available to Full members
Copyright 2013 PunterProfits.com .