A Detailed Look at Chester Draw Bias

Chester is considered one of the most biased in terms of the draw in this country. The configuration of the track (horses running round a tight left-handed bend) suggests that any bias is likely to remain constant over a long period of time. I have looked in detail before at Chester draw bias, but the stats remain so strong I feel it is worth keeping up to date with the current state of “play”.

I have chosen the period from 2005 to 2008 to study the last 4 full years. As with all my draw research, I have only considered races with 10 runners or more and have split the runners into “thirds”. Hence in a 12-runner race, draws 1 to 4 would lie in the bottom “third”, draws 5 to 8 in the middle “third”, and draws 9 to 12 in the top “third”. On a completely fair course the winning percentages for each third should be around 33% and, while some courses hover around that figure, others clearly do not.

I have chosen the minimum distance of 5 furlongs where the draw bias is traditionally at its strongest. There have been 31 qualifying races over 5 furlongs during this period with the draw split as follows:

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Dave examines the cold hard facts and figures.

In addition to the standard stats for high, middle and low draws he additionally examines factors such as

- The Effect of field size

- The effect of the going

- Results for individual stall positions

He finishes with a quick summary of key profitable betting angles

One simple bettign approach for example would have produced a level stakes profit of £498.30 to £10 level stakes at Starting Price.

That equates to a return on investment of 160.7% !!

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