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June Trainers 2012


June Trainers (Flat) by David Renham

Each month I have tried to write an article connected with monthly trainer trends. I have stated many times before, trainers tend to be creatures of habit and hence tend to peak at certain times of the year. Likewise they seem to under-perform at other times of the year. This article is based on Flat trainers in the month of June with data taken from 2007 to 2011.

June sees some excellent meetings including the Derby meeting at Epsom and Royal Ascot.

Firstly let us look at all races.

All races (June 07-11) – 50 runs+ (minimum SR 15%)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

47

176

26.7

+£38.46

+21.9

Jeremy Noseda

39

179

21.8

-£14.41

-8.1

Luca Cumani

46

232

19.8

-£18.82

-8.1

Geoffrey Harker

13

71

18.3

-£7.63

-10.7

Saeed Bin Suroor

38

215

17.7

-£51.89

-24.1

Lisa Williamson

11

63

17.5

+£38.00

+60.3

Sir Michael Stoute

55

317

17.4

-£85.22

-26.9

William Haggas

46

276

16.7

-£31.26

-11.3

Ralph Beckett

45

271

16.6

+£25.84

+9.5

Alan Swinbank

41

253

16.2

+£28.86

+11.4

Hughie Morrison

35

218

16.1

+£46.02

+21.1

Richard Price

17

107

15.9

+£28.02

+26.2

Ollie Pears

15

95

15.8

+£5.98

+6.3

Michael Bell

41

261

15.7

+£9.42

+3.6

Chris Wall

24

154

15.6

+£52.92

+34.4

Brian Ellison

35

226

15.5

+£0.76

+0.3

Pat Eddery

19

123

15.5

+£7.75

+6.3

James Toller

10

65

15.4

+£82.33

+126.7

Henry Cecil

31

204

15.2

-£33.60

-16.5

Richard Hannon

138

912

15.1

-£40.54

-4.5

Sir Mark Prescott has clearly the best strike rate record in June although last year his strike rate was only 17.5%. Prescott has done particularly well with horses returning to the track in less than 4 weeks – 36 wins from 108 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £55.61 (ROI +51.5%). He also has a very good record at Lingfield – 11 wins from 27 (SR 40.7%) for a profit of £24.68 (ROI +91.4%). In terms of the market, his favourites have a poor record – they have shown significant losses of 35 pence in the £. The value has been with second and third favourites as they have combined to produce 16 winners from 51 (SR 31.4%) for a profit of £29.38 (ROI +57.6%). For “in running” punters take note of any Prescott runner that takes the lead early – 17 wins and 11 placed efforts from just 41 runners for front runners indicates that there are profits to be made if you are able to ‘get on’ soon after the start.

Hughie Morrison is a trainer that may slip under the radar and his record in June is worth a second glance. He has made a profit in 4 of the 5 Junes, so he has been consistent. The profits have come from handicaps – 27 winners from 155 (SR 17.4%) for a profit of £58.83 (ROI +38%). Indeed if you focus in on his 4 and 5yo handicappers his record improves to a very impressive 17 wins from 60 (SR 28.3%) for a profit of £85.08 (ROI +141.8%).

As always, it also worth knowing which trainers perform poorly / underperform in this month. Here are the trainers with the lowest strike rates:

All races (June 07-11) – 50 runs+ (SR 5.0% or lower)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

John Bridger

7

140

5.0

-£94.50

-67.5

George Margarson

4

80

5.0

-£39.50

-49.4

Alan Brown

3

60

5.0

-£39.75

-66.3

James Eustace

3

61

4.9

-£22.25

-36.5

John Harris

4

82

4.9

-£65.50

-79.9

Micky Hammond

4

82

4.9

-£53.25

-64.9

Jonathan Portman

7

144

4.9

-£92.25

-64.1

Alan Jarvis

5

104

4.8

+£3.00

+2.9

Tracy Waggott

3

65

4.6

-£48.17

-74.1

Michael Chapman

3

66

4.6

-£35.00

-53.0

J S Moore

9

203

4.4

-£152.63

-75.2

Geoffrey Oldroyd

3

68

4.4

-£38.50

-56.6

Alan Berry

9

231

3.9

-£121.00

-52.4

Michael Blanshard

4

103

3.9

-£60.50

-58.7

Harry Dunlop

4

105

3.8

-£43.63

-41.6

Nick Littmoden

3

79

3.8

-£53.00

-67.1

Milton Bradley

11

303

3.6

-£155.38

-51.3

Christine Dunnett

3

87

3.5

+£81.00

+93.1

Ron Barr

3

90

3.3

-£45.00

-50.0

Mark Usher

4

121

3.3

-£39.50

-32.6

Mel Brittain

4

121

3.3

-£56.00

-46.3

Linda Perratt

6

196

3.1

-£133.50

-68.1

J R Jenkins

4

131

3.1

-£78.00

-59.5

John Wainwright

3

102

2.9

-£57.00

-55.9

George Foster

2

69

2.9

-£57.50

-83.3

John Weymes

3

116

2.6

-£89.50

-77.2

Paul Howling

3

121

2.5

-£103.17

-85.3

Tony Newcombe

1

52

1.9

-£48.50

-93.3

Colin Teague

1

62

1.6

-£55.50

-89.5

Michael Mullineaux

1

63

1.6

-£57.50

-91.3

Edward Creighton

1

64

1.6

-£49.00

-76.6

Pat Phelan

1

72

1.4

-£64.00

-88.9

Hugh McWilliams

0

52

0.0

-£52.00

-100.0

Not surprisingly most of the trainers here show significant losses. Indeed 26 of the 33 trainers have shown losses of 50% or more. It should be noted though that most of the trainers on the list are generally the less successful trainers overall in terms of strike rate. I would be avoiding all runners from these stables in the coming month, as I tend to all the year round.

As I have discussed in similar articles, with any general stats such as these though, it often best to split into more specific race-types. Hence, let us look at 2yo maiden races in June since 2007. I have included all trainers with at least 20 runners that have a strike rate of 12% or more:

All 2yo maiden races (June 07-11) – 20 runs minimum (SR 12%+)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

11

41

26.8

+£29.50

+72.0

Saeed Bin Suroor

6

23

26.1

-£8.49

-36.9

Mahmood Al Zarooni

10

45

22.2

+£23.75

+52.8

Paul Cole

9

42

21.4

+£26.17

+62.3

Bryan Smart

11

55

20.0

+£50.03

+91.0

P C Haslam

5

25

20.0

+£5.75

+23.0

Clive Cox

4

20

20.0

+£3.46

+17.3

John Gosden

10

51

19.6

+£25.52

+50.1

Kevin Ryan

19

101

18.8

+£76.81

+76.1

Richard Hannon

53

282

18.8

-£24.20

-8.6

Ralph Beckett

9

50

18.0

+£16.17

+32.3

Michael Bell

7

40

17.5

+£15.21

+38.0

David Nicholls

7

43

16.3

-£5.63

-13.1

Ed McMahon

5

31

16.1

-£9.63

-31.1

Richard Fahey

17

108

15.7

-£3.04

-2.8

David Barron

5

32

15.6

-£1.14

-3.6

Peter Chapple-Hyam

4

26

15.4

-£12.00

-46.2

Tom Dascombe

10

71

14.1

-£5.77

-8.1

Jamie Osborne

5

36

13.9

+£2.63

+7.3

Peter Winkworth

4

30

13.3

+£65.33

+217.8

Ann Duffield

4

31

12.9

+£32.25

+104.0

Alan Swinbank

3

24

12.5

+£19.00

+79.2

Mark Johnston

16

129

12.4

-£43.30

-33.6

This table should hopefully be useful for those of you who bet in 2yo maidens. In addition here are some addition facts for trainers in these contests:

- Richard Hannon has a good record at Newmarket in June having saddled 6 winners from 17 (SR 35.3%) for a profit of £8.58 (ROI +50.5%);

- Hannon’s runners should also be noted if they have previously run and been beaten by 3 lengths or less. Such runners have produced 22 winners from 54 (SR 40.7%) for a profit of £36.98 (ROI +68.5%);

- Ralph Beckett’s 2yo maidens should be scrutinized carefully “in running”. 15 of his runners have been held up and all have been beaten; the remaining 34 runners that led or raced close to the pace have provided 9 winners!

- Mark Johnston has a distinctly moderate record and it is surprising to see his stable jockey Joe Fanning managing just 2 winners from 35 rides (SR 5.7%). Backing all Fanning’s mounts would have seen losses in excess of 83%.

Moving on now to 3yos running in maidens – this includes both 3yo only maidens and 3yo+ maidens:

All 3yos running in maiden races (June 07-11) – 20 runs minimum (SR 15%+)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Andrew Balding

10

34

29.4

+£32.67

+96.1

Michael Bell

6

23

26.1

+£3.93

+17.1

Jeremy Noseda

15

60

25.0

+£1.27

+2.1

Mick Channon

7

29

24.1

-£4.88

-16.8

Mark Johnston

21

97

21.7

+£30.48

+31.4

Sir Michael Stoute

21

98

21.4

-£32.47

-33.1

Peter Chapple-Hyam

5

24

20.8

+£14.78

+61.6

John Gosden

19

95

20.0

-£30.83

-32.5

Ralph Beckett

8

40

20.0

-£6.65

-16.6

Alan Swinbank

4

21

19.1

+£5.75

+27.4

Henry Candy

4

21

19.1

+£6.83

+32.5

Luca Cumani

12

65

18.5

-£24.86

-38.2

Walter Swinburn

8

44

18.2

+£10.68

+24.3

Henry Cecil

14

79

17.7

+£0.06

+0.1

John Dunlop

7

40

17.5

-£20.79

-52.0

William Haggas

10

58

17.2

-£5.48

-9.5

Sir Mark Prescott Bt

4

26

15.4

-£4.00

-15.4

Saeed Bin Suroor

5

33

15.2

-£20.58

-62.4

Rod Millman

3

20

15.0

-£9.88

-49.4

Andrew Balding has a very good strike rate, but his profits have been helped by two 16/1 winners. However, he looks worth keeping a close eye on. For the record both 16/1 winners were debutants.

All in all June seems to offer the punter some decent betting opportunities and I hope this article has pointed you in the right direction.








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