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4yo+ sellers on the all weather
4yo+ sellers on the all weather
In my previous article I looked at 4yo+ claimers on the all weather – a type of race that many of you I guess tend to swerve away from. I hope that article has changed some people’s opinions of lower class fare, and this time I am going to look at another low grade race type – the selling race. I am concentrating once again on 4yo+ races taking data from 2009 to 2013 - focusing on the all weather months of January to March and November to December. All profits and losses have been calculated to SP. Here are my findings:
Market factors – a look at market factors first:
143 of the 159 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter which paints a picture – that equates to 90% of all winners. The Evens to 9/4 bracket has produced a near break even scenario at SP.
Age – a look at age next and some interesting things to report …….
4yos have a relatively low strike rate but due to a few bigger priced winners their losses have been only around the 10% mark. The value has definitely lay with older horses – horses aged 8 or more have made a blind profit and they look the value. It is interesting to compare the overall strike rate of horses aged 4 to 7 with those aged 8 and above – the 8yo+ runners win percentage stands at 19.8%; the 4 to 7yos stands at 13.4%.
Weight rank – onto weight now and some more strong looking stats:
A definite bias to higher weighted runners – the top three in the weights have a clear edge in terms of strike rate while the top four have an edge in terms of returns. It should be noted that most selling races have more than one top weight – hence the reason they have had a lot more runners in total. Top weights have an excellent record and backing to BOG or Betfair SP they would have made a small profit.
Sex of horse – Onto the sex of horse now:
Very similar figures to the claiming figures we had last month. Female runners provide only a small percentage of the runners, but they are definitely worth avoiding.
Course runs - a look now at how many times a horse had previously run at the course. On the all weather you get some horses that run over 50 times in their careers at the same course!
There does seem to be a pattern here – horses with 3 or less runs at the course have performed poorly. Horses with 4 or more runs have performed much better although when the number of runs gets to 26+ the performance tails off again.
Career wins – now a look at career wins ....
Horses that are still maidens (0 career wins) have the poorest record and in general the more career wins the better. Those with 6 or more career wins have a good record having almost broken even.
Course wins – now a look to see if course wins makes any difference:
No clear pattern here, although non course winners are probably worth swerving.
Trainers – Trainer data is limited so here is a list of trainers that have saddled the most runners in 4yo+ sellers:
Brian Ellison’s figures are remarkable. I suspected that it was the fact that he one or two multiple winners, but he has had 6 different winning horses so it seems he knows how and when to place his runners in runners. David Evans is another trainer worth a second glance - he has secured a decent strike rate and the most winners.
LTO race type – let's move onto LTO race type:
First point to note is that there is clear difference when we compare handicaps to non handicaps LTO - horses that raced in a handicap LTO have performed very poorly. This may come as a surprise to readers but it is useful fact worth knowing. It is also amazing to note the performance of horses that raced in claimers LTO - a near 1 in 4 win record and profits of over 40%.
Position LTO – last time performance now comes under the microscope.
LTO winners score around 1 in 3 but they have made a fairly significant loss. Horses that finished 3rd to 5th LTO have proved the best value but it is not a 'trend' I would necessarily follow.
Days since last run – finally a look at days since last run:
Horses that have run within the last ten days have the best record and are worth keeping a close eye on.
Certainly some interesting findings and I think these races are far better betting mediums than most people would think. Here is a summary of the positives:
Horses priced 9/4 or shorter
Aged 8 and above
Top 4 of the weights
Raced in non handicap LTO (esp. Claimers)
4-25 course runs
Horses trained by Brian Ellison or David Evans
Run in the last 10 days
As with 4yo+ claimers I will be investing some of my betting bank this winter in these races - and hopefully increasing it!!
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