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4yo+ sellers on the all weather


 

4yo+ sellers on the all weather

 

In my previous article I looked at 4yo+ claimers on the all weather – a type of race that many of you I guess tend to swerve away from. I hope that article has changed some people’s opinions of lower class fare, and this time I am going to look at another low grade race type – the selling race. I am concentrating once again on 4yo+ races taking data from 2009 to 2013 - focusing on the all weather months of January to March and November to December. All profits and losses have been calculated to SP. Here are my findings:

 

 

Market factors – a look at market factors first:

 

Price

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Less than 1/2

17

11

64.7

-£2.35

-13.8

1/2 to 10/11

39

20

51.3

-£4.90

-12.6

Evens to 6/4

50

23

46.0

+£1.72

+3.4

13/8 to 9/4

81

26

32.1

-£2.85

-3.5

5/2 to 4/1

159

29

18.2

-£37.67

-23.7

9/2 to 6/1

118

17

14.4

-£13.00

-11.0

13/2 to 8/1

111

17

15.3

+£31.50

+28.4

17/2 to 12/1

97

5

5.2

-£41.00

-42.3

14/1 or more

387

11

2.8

-£120.00

-31.0

 

143 of the 159 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter which paints a picture – that equates to 90% of all winners. The Evens to 9/4 bracket has produced a near break even scenario at SP.

 

 

 

Age – a look at age next and some interesting things to report …….

 

Age

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

4

278

30

10.8

-£29.37

-10.6

5

218

31

14.2

-£90.42

-41.5

6

180

33

18.3

-£48.28

-26.8

7

110

11

10.0

-£77.22

-70.2

8

137

23

16.8

-£8.54

-6.2

9

68

17

25.0

+£64.04

+94.2

10

52

11

21.2

-£4.76

-9.2

11+

16

3

18.8

+£6.00

+37.5

 

4yos have a relatively low strike rate but due to a few bigger priced winners their losses have been only around the 10% mark. The value has definitely lay with older horses – horses aged 8 or more have made a blind profit and they look the value. It is interesting to compare the overall strike rate of horses aged 4 to 7 with those aged 8 and above – the 8yo+ runners win percentage stands at 19.8%; the 4 to 7yos stands at 13.4%.

 

 

 

Weight rank – onto weight now and some more strong looking stats:

 

Weight rank

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Top weight

313

82

26.2

-£6.86

-2.2

2nd in weights

144

22

15.3

-£23.05

-16.0

3rd in weights

150

23

15.3

+£16.33

+10.9

4th in weights

141

15

10.6

+£16.34

+11.6

5th in weights

80

8

10.0

-£31.25

-39.1

6th in weights

78

4

5.1

-£51.56

-66.1

7th + in weights

153

5

3.3

-£108.50

-70.9

 

A definite bias to higher weighted runners – the top three in the weights have a clear edge in terms of strike rate while the top four have an edge in terms of returns. It should be noted that most selling races have more than one top weight – hence the reason they have had a lot more runners in total. Top weights have an excellent record and backing to BOG or Betfair SP they would have made a small profit.

 

 

 

Sex of horse – Onto the sex of horse now:

 

Sex of horse

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Female

184

10

5.4

-£122.05

-66.3

Male

875

149

17.0

-£66.50

-7.6

 

Very similar figures to the claiming figures we had last month. Female runners provide only a small percentage of the runners, but they are definitely worth avoiding.

 

 

 

Course runs - a look now at how many times a horse had previously run at the course. On the all weather you get some horses that run over 50 times in their careers at the same course!

 

Course runs

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

0

135

14

10.4

-£44.22

-32.8

1

111

13

11.7

-£31.30

-28.2

2

110

14

12.7

-£57.58

-52.3

3

112

17

15.2

-£45.80

-40.9

4

89

17

19.1

-£5.74

-6.4

5

75

9

12.0

+£7.88

+10.5

 6 to 10

200

32

16.0

+£7.41

+3.7

11 to 25

174

39

22.4

+£23.79

+13.7

26 or more

53

4

7.5

-£42.99

-81.1

 

There does seem to be a pattern here – horses with 3 or less runs at the course have performed poorly. Horses with 4 or more runs have performed much better although when the number of runs gets to 26+ the performance tails off again.

 

 

 

Career wins – now a look at career wins ....

 

Career wins

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

0

197

12

6.1

-£68.75

-34.9

1

161

20

12.4

-£32.43

-20.1

2

153

22

14.4

-£35.30

-23.1

3

102

17

16.7

-£16.59

-16.3

4

98

17

17.3

-£8.73

-8.9

5

64

14

21.9

-£20.38

-31.8

6+

284

57

20.1

-£6.37

-2.2

 

Horses that are still maidens (0 career wins) have the poorest record and in general the more career wins the better. Those with 6 or more career wins have a good record having almost broken even.

 

Course wins – now a look to see if course wins makes any difference:

 

Course wins

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

0

538

61

11.3

-£146.39

-27.2

1

220

45

20.5

+£46.37

+21.1

2

117

17

14.5

-£40.82

-34.9

3

75

17

22.7

-£13.08

-17.4

4

39

3

7.7

-£28.62

-73.4

5

27

5

18.5

-£0.40

-1.5

6+

43

11

25.6

-£5.61

-13.0

 

No clear pattern here, although non course winners are probably worth swerving.

 

 

 

Trainers – Trainer data is limited so here is a list of trainers that have saddled the most runners in 4yo+ sellers:

 

Trainer

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Ellison, B

13

9

69.2

+£10.30

+79.2

Evans, P D

45

13

28.9

+£8.83

+19.6

Howling, P

14

3

21.4

-£6.07

-43.4

Dore, C R

17

3

17.6

-£8.12

-47.8

Harris, R A

67

11

16.4

-£8.24

-12.3

McCabe, A J

25

4

16.0

+£3.05

+12.2

Haynes, A B

17

2

11.8

-£3.00

-17.6

Guest, R C

22

2

9.1

-£14.25

-64.8

Fahey, R A

23

2

8.7

-£10.00

-43.5

Given, J G

14

1

7.1

-£12.33

-88.1

Bowring, S R

16

1

6.3

-£11.00

-68.8

Midgley, P T

19

1

5.3

-£4.00

-21.1

Moore, G L

17

0

0.0

-£17.00

-100.0

 

Brian Ellison’s figures are remarkable. I suspected that it was the fact that he one or two multiple winners, but he has had 6 different winning horses so it seems he knows how and when to place his runners in runners. David Evans is another trainer worth a second glance - he has secured a decent strike rate and the most winners.

 

 

LTO race type – let's move onto LTO race type:

 

LTO Race type

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

Handicap

516

61

11.8

-£171.37

-33.2

Non-Handicap

540

98

18.1

-£14.18

-2.6

Claimer

204

50

24.5

+£82.32

+40.4

Seller

276

44

15.9

-£66.23

-24.0

 

First point to note is that there is clear difference when we compare handicaps to non handicaps LTO - horses that raced in a handicap LTO have performed very poorly. This may come as a surprise to readers but it is useful fact worth knowing. It is also amazing to note the performance of horses that raced in claimers LTO - a near 1 in 4 win record and profits of over 40%.

 

 

 

Position LTO – last time performance now comes under the microscope.

 

Position LTO

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1st

84

29

34.5

-£16.18

-19.3

2nd

107

25

23.4

-£31.01

-29.0

3rd

130

27

20.8

+£7.24

+5.6

4th

121

23

19.0

+£3.12

+2.6

5th

106

17

16.0

-£7.90

-7.5

6th or worse

508

38

7.5

-£140.82

-27.7

 

LTO winners score around 1 in 3 but they have made a fairly significant loss. Horses that finished 3rd to 5th LTO have proved the best value but it is not a 'trend' I would necessarily follow.

 

 

 

Days since last run – finally a look at days since last run:

 

Days since last run

Runners

Winners

SR%

Profit/loss

ROI%

1 to 5 days

106

24

22.6

-£5.45

-5.1

6 to 10 days

241

43

17.8

+£11.32

+4.7

11 to 20 days

323

54

16.7

-£86.59

-26.8

21 to 30 days

149

14

9.4

-£80.56

-54.1

31 to 60 days

98

10

10.2

+£38.27

+39.1

61 days+

139

14

10.1

-62.54

-45.0

 

Horses that have run within the last ten days have the best record and are worth keeping a close eye on.

 

Certainly some interesting findings and I think these races are far better betting mediums than most people would think. Here is a summary of the positives:

 

Horses priced 9/4 or shorter

Aged 8 and above

Top 4 of the weights

Raced in non handicap LTO (esp. Claimers)

4-25 course runs

Horses trained by Brian Ellison or David Evans

Run in the last 10 days

 

As with 4yo+ claimers I will be investing some of my betting bank this winter in these races - and hopefully increasing it!!

 

David Renham

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 








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