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3yo-Handicaps


 

3yo Handicaps by David Renham

 

Betting in 3yo handicaps is not an area I specialise in, but a member asked me to do some research so here goes. First things first, I have concentrated on all 3yo handicaps on TURF from 2003 to the beginning of May 2010. I felt it was worth including data up to the time of writing. Let us look at trainer performance. Here are all the trainers who have had at least 70 runners (they are ordered by strike rate):

 

Trainer

Wins

Bets

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Sir Mark Prescott

92

268

34.3

+£29.31

+10.9

J Noseda

31

154

20.1

+£29.26

+19.0

A Dickman

15

76

19.7

+£21.00

+27.6

Saeed Bin Suroor

23

118

19.5

-£25.22

-21.4

Sir Michael Stoute

79

415

19.0

-£38.43

-9.3

L M Cumani

49

274

17.9

-£14.73

-5.4

P J Makin

25

145

17.2

+£11.48

+7.9

C F Wall

31

181

17.1

+£25.13

+13.9

M A Jarvis

64

385

16.6

-£35.84

-9.3

R Guest

20

122

16.4

+£33.23

+27.2

R Charlton

56

357

15.7

-£1.26

-0.4

E S McMahon

19

122

15.6

+£35.13

+28.8

G A Swinbank

35

237

14.8

-£28.49

-12.0

P W Chapple-Hyam

26

177

14.7

-£6.15

-3.5

J H M Gosden

54

380

14.2

-£32.79

-8.6

M Botti

10

71

14.1

-£5.75

-8.1

W J Haggas

49

351

14.0

-£52.42

-14.9

J A Glover

16

117

13.7

-£22.23

-19.0

M Johnston

157

1149

13.7

-£144.00

-12.5

D M Simcock

18

133

13.5

-£26.63

-20.0

T G Mills

21

158

13.3

-£31.96

-20.2

M L W Bell

68

515

13.2

-£40.52

-7.9

Mrs J R Ramsden

13

99

13.1

-£30.25

-30.6

D R C Elsworth

30

232

12.9

+£68.38

+29.5

M P Tregoning

24

186

12.9

+£5.20

+2.8

J L Dunlop

85

668

12.7

+£26.96

+4.0

Mrs A J Perrett

57

450

12.7

-£58.51

-13.0

R A Fahey

87

692

12.6

-£12.04

-1.7

D Nicholls

27

215

12.6

-£1.67

-0.8

N A Callaghan

23

185

12.4

-£23.93

-12.9

M Dods

45

368

12.2

-£46.63

-12.7

C G Cox

33

273

12.1

-£11.65

-4.3

B G Powell

12

102

11.8

+£77.50

+76.0

E J Alston

20

171

11.7

-£32.13

-18.8

W Jarvis

21

180

11.7

-£28.14

-15.6

B Ellison

12

104

11.5

+£38.00

+36.5

R M Beckett

35

309

11.3

-£8.17

-2.7

H Candy

15

133

11.3

-£18.67

-14.0

S C Williams

22

196

11.2

-£92.98

-47.4

K R Burke

51

464

11.0

-£62.06

-13.4

G Wragg

9

82

11.0

+£1.00

+1.2

W R Swinburn

22

202

10.9

-£50.44

-25.0

B R Millman

39

363

10.7

-£13.75

-3.8

M G Quinlan

12

112

10.7

+£20.63

+18.4

P F I Cole

50

471

10.6

-£147.97

-31.4

H R A Cecil

17

161

10.6

-£71.85

-44.6

J A Osborne

22

209

10.5

-£50.84

-24.3

P W Harris

13

124

10.5

-£18.00

-14.5

J R Fanshawe

17

163

10.4

-£64.62

-39.7

J G Given

44

425

10.4

+£11.20

+2.6

Pat Eddery

9

87

10.3

+£17.00

+19.5

T D Barron

42

409

10.3

-£145.00

-35.5

P W D'Arcy

13

127

10.2

+£30.50

+24.0

H Morrison

38

372

10.2

-£63.46

-17.1

E J O'Neill

12

118

10.2

-£27.00

-22.9

J M P Eustace

14

138

10.1

+£26.00

+18.8

M J Wallace

8

79

10.1

-£24.38

-30.9

B W Hills

81

807

10.0

-£230.52

-28.6

A King

13

130

10.0

-£59.15

-45.5

D J Coakley

7

70

10.0

+£4.00

+5.7

G A Butler

24

241

10.0

-£48.92

-20.3

E A L Dunlop

44

443

9.9

-£107.24

-24.2

R Hannon

121

1226

9.9

-£229.83

-18.8

J J Quinn

30

307

9.8

-£86.62

-28.2

J A Geake

8

82

9.8

+£4.75

+5.8

E F Vaughan

7

73

9.6

+£4.50

+6.2

K A Ryan

51

541

9.4

-£116.97

-21.6

Mrs A Duffield

19

202

9.4

-£34.05

-16.9

J Akehurst

8

87

9.2

-£30.00

-34.5

W R Muir

32

361

8.9

-£102.38

-28.4

B J Meehan

40

459

8.7

-£21.27

-4.6

T D Easterby

80

920

8.7

-£278.83

-30.3

J R Best

19

220

8.6

+£53.13

+24.2

R A Harris

12

139

8.6

+£0.38

+0.3

M R Channon

107

1244

8.6

-£324.77

-26.1

P A Blockley

14

163

8.6

-£21.38

-13.1

W J Knight

7

82

8.5

-£16.50

-20.1

J L Spearing

11

130

8.5

-£47.25

-36.4

W M Brisbourne

22

262

8.4

-£27.50

-10.5

Jedd O'Keeffe

11

132

8.3

-£53.75

-40.7

A M Balding

35

427

8.2

-£158.73

-37.2

P D Evans

29

355

8.2

-£72.30

-20.4

M D I Usher

10

123

8.1

+£33.58

+27.3

B Smart

25

312

8.0

-£124.88

-40.0

T P Tate

10

125

8.0

-£19.92

-15.9

N P Littmoden

18

227

7.9

-£100.88

-44.4

J S Goldie

14

179

7.8

-£71.92

-40.2

R M H Cowell

6

77

7.8

-£44.13

-57.3

M W Easterby

24

309

7.8

-£37.25

-12.1

J M Bradley

15

194

7.7

-£27.84

-14.4

S Kirk

33

429

7.7

-£69.75

-16.3

A B Haynes

6

78

7.7

-£14.25

-18.3

P Howling

7

92

7.6

-£41.84

-45.5

M H Tompkins

28

370

7.6

-£97.78

-26.4

J W Hills

24

320

7.5

-£109.50

-34.2

J R Boyle

7

94

7.5

+£3.00

+3.2

D Haydn Jones

6

81

7.4

-£3.50

-4.3

J S Moore

16

219

7.3

-£96.65

-44.1

S Dow

7

97

7.2

-£15.00

-15.5

C E Brittain

22

307

7.2

-£115.93

-37.8

P C Haslam

10

141

7.1

-£50.13

-35.6

A P Jarvis

13

184

7.1

-£47.92

-26.0

P T Midgley

9

131

6.9

-£62.25

-47.5

H J L Dunlop

5

73

6.9

-£32.13

-44.0

G L Moore

14

205

6.8

-£85.75

-41.8

I Semple

13

191

6.8

-£74.13

-38.8

J A R Toller

5

74

6.8

-£12.00

-16.2

G M Moore

7

106

6.6

-£56.50

-53.3

Miss J A Camacho

5

76

6.6

-£34.50

-45.4

D Carroll

9

140

6.4

-£49.67

-35.5

W J Musson

8

127

6.3

-£67.75

-53.4

J R Jenkins

10

163

6.1

-£95.25

-58.4

Mrs G S Rees

5

82

6.1

+£11.50

+14.0

Miss L A Perratt

8

134

6.0

+£43.00

+32.1

D K Ivory

7

120

5.8

-£73.75

-61.5

J S Wainwright

6

103

5.8

-£47.63

-46.2

R F Johnson Houghton

7

122

5.7

-£70.50

-57.8

R J Hodges

4

70

5.7

-£36.50

-52.1

J Pearce

5

90

5.6

+£64.50

+71.7

W S Kittow

4

73

5.5

-£26.00

-35.6

J D Bethell

10

183

5.5

-£117.50

-64.2

R M Whitaker

10

187

5.4

-£75.25

-40.2

J Balding

5

94

5.3

-£16.50

-17.6

D W Barker

10

201

5.0

-£101.00

-50.3

N Bycroft

4

81

4.9

-£21.00

-25.9

A Berry

15

311

4.8

-£70.50

-22.7

Eve Johnson Houghton

4

83

4.8

-£57.75

-69.6

I A Wood

10

210

4.8

-£42.50

-20.2

N Tinkler

9

193

4.7

-£57.00

-29.5

B Palling

5

108

4.6

-£56.50

-52.3

J R Weymes

6

132

4.6

-£50.50

-38.3

D W P Arbuthnot

4

89

4.5

-£62.50

-70.2

R Hollinshead

8

189

4.2

-£116.00

-61.4

J G Portman

7

168

4.2

-£77.00

-45.8

G G Margarson

6

152

4.0

-£90.67

-59.7

A W Carroll

6

161

3.7

-£94.00

-58.4

M Blanshard

7

194

3.6

-£118.25

-61.0

M C Chapman

3

83

3.6

-£48.50

-58.4

J Howard Johnson

3

85

3.5

-£60.50

-71.2

Peter Grayson

3

87

3.5

-£40.00

-46.0

M Brittain

4

117

3.4

-£33.00

-28.2

Mrs P N Dutfield

4

121

3.3

-£93.50

-77.3

D Shaw

3

99

3.0

-£89.83

-90.7

M J Polglase

2

78

2.6

-£61.00

-78.2

J J Bridger

3

122

2.5

-£87.50

-71.7

A Bailey

2

85

2.4

-£76.63

-90.2

Mrs C A Dunnett

2

87

2.3

-£67.00

-77.0

M D Hammond

2

89

2.3

-£62.50

-70.2

Miss Gay Kelleway

2

96

2.1

-£81.00

-84.4

C W Thornton

1

70

1.4

-£63.50

-90.7

 

 

 

 

Only 28 of the 150 trainers are in profit, and most who are in profit, it is due mainly to a big priced winner or two skewing the figures. Clearly though Sir Mark Prescott is in a league of his own strike rate wise scoring better than 1 win in 3. Having said that, his prowess is well known in such races and hence it is difficult to make serious money backing his runners. However, if you focus on Prescott runners that are in the top three of the betting, then you would have secured 89 winners from 214 runners (SR 41.6%) for a profit of £62.31 (ROI +29.1%). Also his strike rate is good when stable jockey Seb Sanders is on board (39%) and return on investment sneaks over the 20% mark too. One should also take more notice when his runners run over 10f or more – his strike rate is 35.8% which has created a profit of £42.04 (ROI +20.3%).

 

Here are some other traqiner stats worth noting:

 

-         Richard Hannon has a good record with favourites in these contests – 37 wins from 105 (SR 35.2%) for a profit of £46.84 (ROI +44.6%);

 

-         Dandy Nicholls has a good record with favourites also – 12 wins from 30 (SR 40%) for a profit of £15.00 (ROI +50%);

 

-         Michael Jarvis has a good record with horses that won their maiden LTO – 21 wins from 72 (SR 29.2%) for a profit of £15.23 (ROI +21.2%);

 

-         Saeed Bin Suroor also has a good record with horses that won their maiden LTO – 12 wins from 36 (SR 33.3%) for a profit of £15.23 (ROI +42.3%);

 

-         Paul Cole has a good record with all LTO winners – 20 wins from 83 (SR 24.1%) for a profit of £28.66 (ROI +34.5%);

 

-         John Gosden has a good record in 3yo handicaps at Newmarket – 13 wins from 57 (SR 22.8%) for a profit of £33.02 (ROI +57.9%);

 

-         Mark Johnston has good record with 3yo handicappers running at Beverley – 21 wins from 98 (SR 21.4%) for a profit of £49.69 (ROI +50.7%).

 

One comparison I thought would be interesting to look at, is the effect of different times of the year. Below is a table that compares a trainer’s overall strike rate in 3yo turf handicaps with their strike rate firstly from March to May; secondly form June to August and finally from September to November. It should be noted that where there is an asterisk (*) it means that the sample was less than 10 runners and hence the strike rate should be treated with caution.

 

Trainer

Overall SR%

Mar-May SR%

Jun-Aug SR%

Sept–Nov SR%

A B Haynes

7.7

0.0

11.1

8.3

A Bailey

2.4

2.7

0.0

25*

A Berry

4.8

3.3

6.1

2.6

A Dickman

19.7

10.0

23.6

9.1

A King

10.0

11.6

10.3

5.3

A M Balding

8.2

7.1

9.4

4.8

A P Jarvis

7.1

3.5

9.4

4.8

A W Carroll

3.7

2.5

4.0

5.0

B Ellison

11.5

6.3

17.4

10.0

B G Powell

11.8

5.7

12.1

33.3*

B J Meehan

8.7

6.6

9.5

12.8

B Palling

4.6

0.0

8.0

7.1

B R Millman

10.7

10.5

10.7

11.6

B Smart

8.0

7.0

7.9

12.1

B W Hills

10.0

11.4

9.3

10.4

C E Brittain

7.2

9.9

5.4

10.0

C F Wall

17.1

9.1

21.2

10.5

C G Cox

12.1

19.5

8.9

10.5

C W Thornton

1.4

0.0

2.3

0*

D Carroll

6.4

6.3

7.6

0.0

D Haydn Jones

7.4

9.4

6.5

0*

D J Coakley

10.0

9.5

10.5

9.1

D K Ivory

5.8

4.7

7.3

0*

D M Simcock

13.5

15.8

12.1

16.7

D Nicholls

12.6

10.1

15.7

5.6

D R C Elsworth

12.9

13.7

14.4

3.7

D Shaw

3.0

4.6

2.2

0*

D W Barker

5.0

2.6

6.1

10.0

D W P Arbuthnot

4.5

10.7

2.0

0.0

E A L Dunlop

9.9

12.7

8.2

8.7

E F Vaughan

9.6

0.0

10.5

18.8

E J Alston

11.7

16.3

10.2

8.3

E J O'Neill

10.2

14.3

7.4

0*

E S McMahon

15.6

7.3

19.7

20.0

Eve Johnson Houghton

4.8

3.5

7.0

0.0

G A Butler

10.0

10.1

7.8

20.0

G A Swinbank

14.8

10.0

17.1

14.3

G G Margarson

4.0

5.5

2.4

6.7

G L Moore

6.8

2.0

8.5

7.9

G M Moore

6.6

2.4

10.9

0*

G Wragg

11.0

20.0

8.3

7.1

H Candy

11.3

22.9

5.1

15.8

H J L Dunlop

6.9

11.8

3.0

0*

H Morrison

10.2

15.7

8.3

4.4

H R A Cecil

10.6

12.5

10.7

7.7

I A Wood

4.8

1.4

7.3

0.0

I Semple

6.8

8.5

5.5

8.6

J A Geake

9.8

12.9

10.0

0.0

J A Glover

13.7

12.2

16.1

8.3

J A Osborne

10.5

9.7

11.5

8.3

J A R Toller

6.8

14.3

6.3

0.0

J Akehurst

9.2

7.1

10.9

7.7

J Balding

5.3

6.3

4.9

5.9

J D Bethell

5.5

5.8

4.3

14.3

J G Given

10.4

11.9

9.6

10.3

J G Portman

4.2

2.8

5.9

0.0

J H M Gosden

14.2

13.4

13.6

18.5

J Howard Johnson

3.5

4.4

3.6

0*

J J Bridger

2.5

3.3

2.5

0.0

J J Quinn

9.8

7.1

10.5

16.7

J L Dunlop

12.7

10.7

17.2

3.1

J L Spearing

8.5

9.1

8.9

5.6

J M Bradley

7.7

3.1

8.8

18.8

J M P Eustace

10.1

6.6

15.4

0.0

J Noseda

20.1

5.0

24.4

29.2

J Pearce

5.6

3.1

8.5

0.0

J R Best

8.6

6.4

10.1

5.3

J R Boyle

7.5

9.1

5.8

11.1*

J R Fanshawe

10.4

7.1

11.3

12.5

J R Jenkins

6.1

8.1

5.9

0.0

J R Weymes

4.6

5.7

4.4

0.0

J S Goldie

7.8

10.5

5.1

12.5

J S Moore

7.3

5.7

7.9

9.1

J S Wainwright

5.8

6.3

4.5

25*

J W Hills

7.5

3.8

10.6

4.6

Jedd O'Keeffe

8.3

4.3

10.7

10.0

K A Ryan

9.4

10.3

8.5

10.6

K R Burke

11.0

11.1

11.8

0.0

L M Cumani

17.9

21.7

17.4

14.9

M A Jarvis

16.6

22.0

12.0

24.4

M Blanshard

3.6

4.7

1.8

11.8

M Botti

14.1

10.0

11.9

33.3*

M Brittain

3.4

4.8

1.5

11.1*

M C Chapman

3.6

4.0

4.4

0.0

M D Hammond

2.3

0.0

3.3

0*

M D I Usher

8.1

8.1

9.0

0*

M Dods

12.2

10.0

12.6

17.1

M G Quinlan

10.7

14.9

9.6

0.0

M H Tompkins

7.6

9.1

7.6

4.6

M J Polglase

2.6

2.7

3.0

0*

M J Wallace

10.1

19.4

4.9

0*

M Johnston

13.7

15.3

12.5

12.0

M L W Bell

13.2

15.6

12.1

10.0

M P Tregoning

12.9

2.0

15.0

23.3

M R Channon

8.6

8.5

8.1

11.6

M W Easterby

7.8

7.7

8.3

5.6

Miss Gay Kelleway

2.1

0.0

3.2

0.0

Miss J A Camacho

6.6

4.4

7.3

8.3

Miss L A Perratt

6.0

0.0

8.2

4.6

Mrs A Duffield

9.4

6.9

11.5

0.0

Mrs A J Perrett

12.7

15.3

9.4

17.9

Mrs C A Dunnett

2.3

3.1

2.1

0*

Mrs G S Rees

6.1

5.3

7.1

0*

Mrs P N Dutfield

3.3

0.0

4.1

33.3*

N A Callaghan

12.4

12.5

12.2

13.3

N Bycroft

4.9

0.0

7.4

0*

N P Littmoden

7.9

8.0

8.5

4.8

N Tinkler

4.7

1.6

6.0

6.7

P A Blockley

8.6

9.9

7.6

7.7

P C Haslam

7.1

6.7

6.9

12.5

P D Evans

8.2

7.4

10.3

2.3

P F I Cole

10.6

7.9

12.8

9.8

P Howling

7.6

11.5

5.3

11.1*

P J Makin

17.2

18.2

16.7

18.8

P T Midgley

6.9

3.8

10.6

0.0

P W Chapple-Hyam

14.7

23.9

9.1

9.1

P W D'Arcy

10.2

8.9

11.0

11.1*

P W Harris

10.5

9.1

10.1

13.6

Pat Eddery

10.3

11.1

9.8

10.0

Peter Grayson

3.5

3.7

3.5

0*

R A Fahey

12.6

12.8

13.1

8.8

R A Harris

8.6

6.3

9.9

10.0

R Charlton

15.7

13.8

16.9

14.9

R F Johnson Houghton

5.7

4.3

4.9

14.3

R Guest

16.4

0.0

21.1

10.0

R Hannon

9.9

8.1

11.7

7.1

R Hollinshead

4.2

2.9

5.2

4.4

R J Hodges

5.7

4.2

4.7

33.3*

R M Beckett

11.3

10.8

11.4

13.0

R M H Cowell

7.8

10.5

5.9

14.3*

R M Whitaker

5.4

7.1

4.8

3.9

S C Williams

11.2

9.8

13.0

4.2

S Dow

7.2

2.9

9.6

9.1

S Kirk

7.7

10.4

7.2

3.9

Saeed Bin Suroor

19.5

20.0

17.1

26.9

Sir Mark Prescott

34.3

18.2

37.6

31.7

Sir Michael Stoute

19.0

22.1

19.0

12.2

T D Barron

10.3

13.6

8.5

8.9

T D Easterby

8.7

7.2

9.0

13.2

T G Mills

13.3

12.1

15.4

9.1

T P Tate

8.0

7.8

9.5

0.0

W J Haggas

14.0

18.2

11.9

18.0

W J Knight

8.5

7.7

5.9

40*

W J Musson

6.3

11.4

4.4

4.2

W Jarvis

11.7

11.7

13.8

3.9

W M Brisbourne

8.4

6.8

9.2

6.9

W R Muir

8.9

11.9

8.7

0.0

W R Swinburn

10.9

8.2

12.4

10.7

W S Kittow

5.5

0.0

6.5

11.1*

 

Some trainers have similar strike rates at varying times of the year, but there are some who certainly seem to perform better at certain times of the year. Chris Wall is a prime example – his record from June to August looks very solid and when you focus on the more fancied runners, a decent profit would have been achieved. Backing all his runners in those three months from the top four of the betting would have produced 22 wins from 74 runners (SR 29.7%) for a profit of £41.80 (ROI +56.5%).

The table is also useful to note under-performing trainers at certain times of the year. For example Jeremy Noseda has had just 2 winners from 40 in races from March to May, while John Dunlop is 3 wins from 96 from September onwards.

 

I hope this article, and the tables within it, give you some good pointers for these difficult looking contests.

 








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