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2yo maiden winners does the distance of the race matter
2yo maiden winners – does the distance of the race matter? And if it does, where does it lead me?
2yo racing lends itself to research I find and I have spent several hours and days this year crunching my way through 2yo data. For this article I am looking at 2yo maiden winners and whether the distance that they achieved their win over makes any difference or not in their next three starts. I think it is always worth looking beyond just one future run where possible when analysing data and ideas.
My theory before researching this, was that horses that won over further were the probably the better runners to follow in subsequent runs. Why I felt this, was simply down to the fact that most of the classier 2yos tended to appear later in the season and hence usually over longer distances. Whether this theory had any validity I was soon to find out.
2yo maiden win over 5f – next 3 starts
These results give fairly standard results for LTO winners in the ‘next run category’ with losses of around 15 pence in the £ – this is fairly standard for LTO winners. The second run after their initial win produce smaller losses despite a lower strike rate, but generally the results do not inspire one to back such runners in subsequent runs.
2yo maiden win over 6f – next 3 starts
Overall it seems that horses that break their 2yo maiden over 6f are poor investments in their subsequent three starts. Strike rates and returns are poorer than the 5f winners for all three individual runs.
2yo maiden win over 7f – next 3 starts
I had been hoping to see an improvement in results here with this longer distance, but it has not been the case. There is however, a better set of figures if we restrict the winners to those who won over 7f on debut – on their next start (2nd career start) they produced 65 wins from 297 (SR 21.9%) for only a small loss of £25.37 (ROI -8.5%).
2yo maiden win over 1 mile or more – next 3 starts
These figures look more promising – especially the next run figures as they have produced a small profit. At least these figures seem to back up my initial theory of longer distance maiden winners being the better maiden winners to follow.
It seems that 2yo maiden winners over 1 mile or more require further investigation to see if we there are any other angles that give decent strike rates and/or profits.
Course Geography on 2yo maiden win over 1 mile or more
Let us look to see if whether the part of the country makes a difference where the 1 mile+ win was achieved. I have simply split the courses by North and South and combined the next 3 runs together:
There is a definite edge to original winners at Southern courses. This perhaps should not come as a surprise as Southern maidens tend to be more competitive than Northern ones. Sticking with winners at Southern courses – let us break their runs down in terms of their subsequent three starts:
2yo maiden win over 1 mile or more achieved on Southern track – next 3 starts
Some fairly solid figures there especially the very next start after the maiden win. Good profits from the third run after the initial victory also.
2yo maiden win over 1 mile or more split by sex of horse – next 3 starts combined
Let us look to see if whether the sex of a horse makes a difference where the 1 mile+ win was achieved. I have included all three subsequent runs to begin with.
Males generally outperform female runners in terms of strike rate so the strike rate figures are no surprise. However, the figures for their returns are interesting with females actually making a combined profit when taking into account all of their next three starts. They did have a 66/1 winner that skews the figures, but male runners had two winners at 33/1 so taking everything into account I feel there is more value looking at female runners that won their maiden over 1 mile or more than male ones.
Let me split each run up individually for female runners.
2yo maiden win over 1 mile or more for females – next 3 starts
Fairly solid stats across the board – the 66/1 winner came from the ‘third next run’ group so excluding that each run seems to offer similar chances.
Finally let me now focus on 1 mile+ maiden winners when the win had been achieved on debut. As the table shows their subsequent two career starts have shown small profits:
2yo maiden win on debut over 1 mile or more – next 2 starts
All in all, as with most research, finding sure fire profitable angles is difficult – however, it seems that 2yo maiden winners over 1 mile are worth close scrutiny; especially female runners, or runners that achieved their initial success at a Southern track.
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